Actually brother, i consider myself to be quite sharp but i never had a bookie stiff me ever. I just thought your were talking shit. I only go through a guy out of Cleveland but with him i never had a problem, hopefully it stays that way. In the meantime, ill keep checking this thread and start pounding some of these, getting chased is a good thing.
FRIDAY, July 17
To date
11-5 (+5.86)
Switching from "$10" to "1 unit" as base for this thread
===========
Pairing up a couple of modest chasers here
NY Mets +1.5 (-117) at Atlanta
LAD -1.5 (+136) vs Houston
Per yesterday's posted notes, Braves are now 9-31 in All Home games when graded at -1.5 They got last night's win by two runs, so we'll take a bite here that Mets stay within the number tonight
Meanwhile, out west we have the Dodgers in an AfterHomeLoss role. SCOTT posted pre-ASbreak about LAD playing a team that beat them the game before....Believe it's now 17-2
Also in my own notes from yesterday, I had the Astros past 70 road games at 39-31 with 36 of those wins by 2+ runs. It's worth noting that 28 of the 31 losses were also by 2+ runs. A rather sharp tilt to have over 90% of all road games to be 2+ run margins....So we'll use that as further impetus to take not only LADodgers here, but give the runline.
In 2TeamParlay form
NYM +1.5 (-117)
LAD -1.5 (+136)
Lay 1.5
Pays 5.07
=============
To date
11-5 (+5.86)
Switching from "$10" to "1 unit" as base for this thread
===========
Pairing up a couple of modest chasers here
NY Mets +1.5 (-117) at Atlanta
LAD -1.5 (+136) vs Houston
Per yesterday's posted notes, Braves are now 9-31 in All Home games when graded at -1.5 They got last night's win by two runs, so we'll take a bite here that Mets stay within the number tonight
Meanwhile, out west we have the Dodgers in an AfterHomeLoss role. SCOTT posted pre-ASbreak about LAD playing a team that beat them the game before....Believe it's now 17-2
Also in my own notes from yesterday, I had the Astros past 70 road games at 39-31 with 36 of those wins by 2+ runs. It's worth noting that 28 of the 31 losses were also by 2+ runs. A rather sharp tilt to have over 90% of all road games to be 2+ run margins....So we'll use that as further impetus to take not only LADodgers here, but give the runline.
In 2TeamParlay form
NYM +1.5 (-117)
LAD -1.5 (+136)
Lay 1.5
Pays 5.07
=============
Freaky Fletcher Friday Night:
METS +190
AZ +185
SD +140
UNDER 7.5-125 sd vs col
LAD -165
TOR -105
Mets -- I see nothing that warrants a 2/1 line in this game. Both teams suck, and the Mets are 7-4 when Pelfrey starts at night and 5-2 Away. Jurrgens Lotion is just 6-8 at Home.
Az -- A great pitcher pitching slightly below standards vs a decent pitcher who's hot. STL is just 7-6 this year with CC, and in Garland's last 5 starts counting 33.1 innings he's allowed a mere 9 earned runs.
SD -- SD is 5-2 when Geer starts at Home and COL just 2-8 when JJ starts away. Inflated line.
UNDER -- Last night SD + COL flew OVER to open SD's current Homestand. Since 9/21/04 SD has had 60 Homestands. Only 5 of those opened with consecutive OVERS.
LAD -- LAD is 24-4 vs a team that defeated them the previous day this year. In addition LA has had 13 consecutive Series in which the Game #1 Loser Won Game #2.
TOR -- BOS has lost 8 of Bucholz last 9 Road starts. Romero has had 8 straight Quality Starts.
METS +190
AZ +185
SD +140
UNDER 7.5-125 sd vs col
LAD -165
TOR -105
Mets -- I see nothing that warrants a 2/1 line in this game. Both teams suck, and the Mets are 7-4 when Pelfrey starts at night and 5-2 Away. Jurrgens Lotion is just 6-8 at Home.
Az -- A great pitcher pitching slightly below standards vs a decent pitcher who's hot. STL is just 7-6 this year with CC, and in Garland's last 5 starts counting 33.1 innings he's allowed a mere 9 earned runs.
SD -- SD is 5-2 when Geer starts at Home and COL just 2-8 when JJ starts away. Inflated line.
UNDER -- Last night SD + COL flew OVER to open SD's current Homestand. Since 9/21/04 SD has had 60 Homestands. Only 5 of those opened with consecutive OVERS.
LAD -- LAD is 24-4 vs a team that defeated them the previous day this year. In addition LA has had 13 consecutive Series in which the Game #1 Loser Won Game #2.
TOR -- BOS has lost 8 of Bucholz last 9 Road starts. Romero has had 8 straight Quality Starts.
Adding to Scott's fine analysis for the SoCal match between Padres/Rockies....Colorado this season has seen 15 of 21 go Under the posted Total when playing After an AwayWin. This stat suggests that following a nice burst to win on the road, they are quite a bit tighter offensively in subsequent outings.
Oh, Colorado was SU winner in 10 of those 21, but seven of those wins came during The Surge following firing of Hurdle.
We're not laying claim to either SD or the Under within this here thread, but we did pair them for a smaller 2TP in our Great Game thread for July 17
Out to the local sports bar now to hear some solid rock n roll from one of TBay's better cover bands - The Go Daddies http://www.thegodaddies.com/
Back about 1130-Midnight range to join in on the cyber watching party for LAD and SD games
Oh, Colorado was SU winner in 10 of those 21, but seven of those wins came during The Surge following firing of Hurdle.
We're not laying claim to either SD or the Under within this here thread, but we did pair them for a smaller 2TP in our Great Game thread for July 17
Out to the local sports bar now to hear some solid rock n roll from one of TBay's better cover bands - The Go Daddies http://www.thegodaddies.com/
Back about 1130-Midnight range to join in on the cyber watching party for LAD and SD games
July 17 summary
0-2 (-1.50)
11-7 (+4.36)
----------------------
SATURDAY, July 18
*Detroit Tigers - a decent pitching club - have allowed 5+ runs 39 times this season. In the game following, they're 29-10 when graded at +1.5
*Cincinnati Reds past 35 games After Allowing 3orless are 9-26
=====
*Baltimore Orioles this season playing Away After Scoring 6+ in an away game are 4-8. Roll it back into last June and they're just 8-22 in this role
*Chicago WhiteSox this season playing Home After Allowing 6+ in a home game are 12-4 (10-6 at -1.5). Roll it back into last May and they're 27-10 (22-15 at -1.5)
Chisox in all Game2s this season 19-9. Home Game2s they're 10-3 (8-5 at -1.5)
=====
*Minnesota Twins in past 25 Away vs RH starters have seen just four games go Over the posted Total. Only two games in those 25 have topped "10".
Minnesota this season when playing Away After an AwayWin is 1-13 vs the posted Total
*Texas Rangers past 14 Home vs RH starters have seen only two top "10" (2-11-1)
======
*Kansas City Royals suck amazing loads of opponent jism since early May - notching just 19 wins in their past 60 games. In that stretch, they're an incredibly meager 4-15 vs LH starters while averaging just 2.5 runs per game
Zack Greinke started the season with some record breaking numbers through his first ten starts. However, in his past seven, he's looked relatively ordinary with 45.1 IP, 3.97 era and a WHIP of 1.39
*Tampa Bay Rays have won 36 in their past 60 and are 22-11 vs RH starters in that stretch, averaging 5.7 runs per game
Scott Kazmir had career worst numbers in first seven weeks of season, took almost a month on DL and since his return has made three starts. The most notable change in those 16.1 IP is that he walked only four batters compared to a more historical average of about 5 per 9IP. The Royals happen to be last in MLB for taking walks this season.
=========
2TeamParlays
CHISOX -149 (Buehrle/Bergesen)
MIN/TEX Undah 10
Lay 1.5
Pays 3.12
TBAY +117
MIL +115
Lay 1.0
Pays 3.67
LAD -1.5 (+104)
CHW -1.5 (+130)
Lay 1.0
Pays 3.69
[/COLOR]
0-2 (-1.50)
11-7 (+4.36)
----------------------
SATURDAY, July 18
*Detroit Tigers - a decent pitching club - have allowed 5+ runs 39 times this season. In the game following, they're 29-10 when graded at +1.5
*Cincinnati Reds past 35 games After Allowing 3orless are 9-26
=====
*Baltimore Orioles this season playing Away After Scoring 6+ in an away game are 4-8. Roll it back into last June and they're just 8-22 in this role
*Chicago WhiteSox this season playing Home After Allowing 6+ in a home game are 12-4 (10-6 at -1.5). Roll it back into last May and they're 27-10 (22-15 at -1.5)
Chisox in all Game2s this season 19-9. Home Game2s they're 10-3 (8-5 at -1.5)
=====
*Minnesota Twins in past 25 Away vs RH starters have seen just four games go Over the posted Total. Only two games in those 25 have topped "10".
Minnesota this season when playing Away After an AwayWin is 1-13 vs the posted Total
*Texas Rangers past 14 Home vs RH starters have seen only two top "10" (2-11-1)
======
*Kansas City Royals suck amazing loads of opponent jism since early May - notching just 19 wins in their past 60 games. In that stretch, they're an incredibly meager 4-15 vs LH starters while averaging just 2.5 runs per game
Zack Greinke started the season with some record breaking numbers through his first ten starts. However, in his past seven, he's looked relatively ordinary with 45.1 IP, 3.97 era and a WHIP of 1.39
*Tampa Bay Rays have won 36 in their past 60 and are 22-11 vs RH starters in that stretch, averaging 5.7 runs per game
Scott Kazmir had career worst numbers in first seven weeks of season, took almost a month on DL and since his return has made three starts. The most notable change in those 16.1 IP is that he walked only four batters compared to a more historical average of about 5 per 9IP. The Royals happen to be last in MLB for taking walks this season.
=========
2TeamParlays
CHISOX -149 (Buehrle/Bergesen)
MIN/TEX Undah 10
Lay 1.5
Pays 3.12
TBAY +117
MIL +115
Lay 1.0
Pays 3.67
LAD -1.5 (+104)
CHW -1.5 (+130)
Lay 1.0
Pays 3.69
[/COLOR]
Work...lol. Tell them youve got the swine flu.Cant miss dude.
Thats a nice place in Toronto,reminds me of the Comcast (tm) Center here.
Does anyone mind if I throw in my two cents? Angles aplenty.
SF/Pitt Under 9 (-115)
SF avg 3.6 rpg on road (22-17 to the U)
Think you get value with Zito today with the under.Abismal 7.43 era over L3 starts looks scary but thats due to the 9 ER pounding he took LTO over 4+ innings.Should look better vs a Pirates team avg 2.6 rpg (5-1 Under) over their last 7 and 3.8 vs LHP this season (19-8 to the Under).Zitos also 8-2 to the Under in his L10 Saturday starts and 2-0 to the Under vs the Pirates in his career which should balance out the anomoly of the Pirates 11-3 to the Over on Saturdays this year.
Ump Hoye 14-7 to the Under in 09
1 unit.
GL
Worst night I've had in MLB in 5 years! I'd blame it on Fletcher and his freakazoid avatar entering this thread with stiffy in hand, but I'm not superstitious. However I'll stick to what's tried and true. Good capping leads to good results in the long run, despite days or even stretches of disastrous results. The 7.05 Unit trashing leaves me 11-14, -4.65 Units in this thread after winning 5 of the first 6 posts -- YIKES!!!
Also, and I can't speak for anyone else here about this tendency, over a 26 year period of betting on sports I've had the misfortune of being s TT iffe TT by several irresponsible degenera TT es posing as bookmakers. That has rarely led to a good run for me in the days following. ONWARD:
Day Games:
METS -105 -- Mets are 11-3 since 5/2/08 after a Loss in which they allowed 10+ Runs. ATL is 8-18 off 2+ Wins if previous victory was by 2+ Runs since last year.
TOR +110 -- Getting ripped off about 20 cents on this line but maybe the oddsmakers have a similar view to mine here. The DUE Factor: The Saux are 1-11 since 7-29-07 on the Road off a Road Win when that victory makes them 6-1 or better in their previous 7 games. Jays Home off Road are 40-9 to win at least one of the first 2 games. Back later.
TOR
Also, and I can't speak for anyone else here about this tendency, over a 26 year period of betting on sports I've had the misfortune of being s TT iffe TT by several irresponsible degenera TT es posing as bookmakers. That has rarely led to a good run for me in the days following. ONWARD:
Day Games:
METS -105 -- Mets are 11-3 since 5/2/08 after a Loss in which they allowed 10+ Runs. ATL is 8-18 off 2+ Wins if previous victory was by 2+ Runs since last year.
TOR +110 -- Getting ripped off about 20 cents on this line but maybe the oddsmakers have a similar view to mine here. The DUE Factor: The Saux are 1-11 since 7-29-07 on the Road off a Road Win when that victory makes them 6-1 or better in their previous 7 games. Jays Home off Road are 40-9 to win at least one of the first 2 games. Back later.
TOR
Good Evening you Fucking Leftwing and Rightwing Extremist Bastards!
AZ +100 -- Zona has split the first 2 Games of its last 7 Road trips. Haren has an unreal .69 WHIP at night, where he allows only 2 of every 10 batters to reach base. Wainwright, no slouch himself, allows 3 of every 10 to reach.
KC -125 -- Nothing good to say about the lousy every year Royals. Good time to catch TB though, as they stand 1-12 their last 13 after scoring 7+ in a Road Game.
TEX -115 -- MIN has lost their last 9 when playing on the Road off 2 or more Wins since 8-23-08. These 2 have split the first 2 Games of the 6 Series played in TexASS since 2004.
AZ +100 -- Zona has split the first 2 Games of its last 7 Road trips. Haren has an unreal .69 WHIP at night, where he allows only 2 of every 10 batters to reach base. Wainwright, no slouch himself, allows 3 of every 10 to reach.
KC -125 -- Nothing good to say about the lousy every year Royals. Good time to catch TB though, as they stand 1-12 their last 13 after scoring 7+ in a Road Game.
TEX -115 -- MIN has lost their last 9 when playing on the Road off 2 or more Wins since 8-23-08. These 2 have split the first 2 Games of the 6 Series played in TexASS since 2004.
Agree with Ranger reasoning
So with the CHW -1.5 loss busting that parlay, we'll repackage the LAD -1.5 and see if we can catch the Tex -1.5 along with it. There should be a fair amount of time between starts so if Rangers look to be flubbing, we could still make a final late use of LAD rl as a straight play.
for now
2TeamParlay
TEX -1.5 (+162)
LAD -1.5 (-107)
Pays 4.07 x 1
So with the CHW -1.5 loss busting that parlay, we'll repackage the LAD -1.5 and see if we can catch the Tex -1.5 along with it. There should be a fair amount of time between starts so if Rangers look to be flubbing, we could still make a final late use of LAD rl as a straight play.
for now
2TeamParlay
TEX -1.5 (+162)
LAD -1.5 (-107)
Pays 4.07 x 1
Remember, far more often than not, we see a reversion towards center. Good night for Bums to bust loose for a 5spot
As for your anti-TB stat...it's not a bad one at all. But rule of thumb here (which I ignored the other night in using SD) is that if trusted indicators point to one of the bottom tier (26-30th ranked) teams, that simply means don't play against them. PASS
Will be watching that one with great interest as I have Rays prominent per my post above and also dropped real world "1.5unit" size play on KC Undah 4 (-120)
