I am new here so I won't pretend to understand how people on this board think in making their selections. However, I have seen similar patterns on other boards and if I may offer an observation: Too often flawed thinking about a game gets passed along and accepted as "fact". Hundreds of people read these boards and many accept the flawed thinking..contributing to a one-sided view of a game. Then people are picking up on it and before long, you have a chat board virus that infects people's thinking on a game.
Let me use last night's Ark. state game as a specific example. Yesterday, there were dozens of post around the various chat boards that noted they liked Ark. State on the road. About the only detail behind this opinion that I saw was that ASU had hung tough at Memphis. Somehow that proved to these bettors that ASU had the nads to win outright on the road at Georgia Southern. With all due respect, ASU's performance at Memphis was in no way a predictor of how they'd do in Statesboro. Why? Well first, because ASU shot a measly 40% in their only road tilt at Memphis. That doesn't give me much confidence in how they might perform on the road. Secondly, how a team performs against Memphis is not real relevant. Can you say underachieve? underperform? How about shave? Heck I'm not suggesting anything specific about Memphis here, but I am suggesting that just because a team hung around with an underperforming favorite in a sandwich situation is hardly reason to concludethey're going to win outright on the road in this spot. Let's not also forget that Ga. Southern likely had their own Southern Conference refs in the game last night.
The Sports Insights consortium report yesterday showed 88% of bettors at their six offshore books were on ark. state. A home dog getting only 12% of the action? That should ring alarm bells in every bettor's head.
I bet Ga. Southern yesterday...and yes I posted it well before the game at my usual posting board
http://www.americansportshandicappingnetwork.com. (By the way, I also had NC State last night and there were a lot of people on them too. I guess my analysis of that one was way off.).
I just wanted to express my opinion here that yes....there is a pattern......and it repeats itself over and over again. SOmetimes, the pattern is correct because good information and analysis is being shared. Other times, like last night, it is incorrect because people caught the virus of believing a bad analysis. One of the main reasons for this is the nature of this (and other) boards. I've noticed that very few people on this board express their opinions on this board about others' plays. I don't see people questioning others' rationale. As a result, different opinions are not shared and people don't always get balanced views of games or the benefit of different people's takes on games. Had some people disagreed with the Ark. State pick on this board, perhaps some people wouldn't have caught the virus. I disagreed with it and said so on the board on which I post, but didn't feel comfortable doing it here.
That's the main reason I haven't been posting here....this board doesn't seem to value analysis, opinions or different views. It appears to be a picks only board with most guys not giving their explanations or questioning others' thinking. Perhaps if this board did accept opposing views and analysis more, this kind of stuff wouldn't happen quite so much.
That's why I post where I do and not here...I hang with a very small group of people who do disagree with each other regularly...and we all benefit from it. Sometimes we suffer from the virus of a bad analysis not adequately vetted (north texas on tuesday night comes to mind). But I don't believe it happens nearly as often as it does on other boards.
You guys have a lot of great cappers here. Perhaps if you were more open about sharing thoughts about the pro's and cons of each other's plays, everyone would benefit. Good luck to all of you.
