Thanks for the shout-out fellas. I had always intended to do a follow-up post, especially in the event that the Rangers' luck dramatically turned, which it clearly did.
A reminder of the Rangers' stats on the morning of November 25:
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Goal |
| Date | Team | PDO | Rank | Osh% | Osv% | CF% | Rank | SC% | Rank | SOS | Win % | GP | Record | Diff |
| After Game 21 | NYR | 107.1 | 1 | 11.0 | 96.1 | 47.2 | 27 | 45.7 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 21 | 16-3-2 | +27 |
Since my original post, this is what the Rangers' numbers look like:
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Goal |
| Date | Team | PDO | Rank | Osh% | Osv% | CF% | Rank | SC% | Rank | SOS | Win % | GP | Record | Diff |
| Next 15 games | NYR | 96.3 | 29 | 7.2 | 89.0 | 48.2 | 20 | 46 | 25 | | | 15 | 4-9-2 | -16 |
So the total is:
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Goal |
| Date | Team | PDO | Rank | Osh% | Osv% | CF% | Rank | SC% | Rank | SOS | Win % | GP | Record | Diff |
| Total | NYR | 102.6 | 1 | 9.5 | 93.1 | 47.7 | 22 | 45.8 | 27 | 28 | 8 | 36 | 20-12-4 | +11 |
Biggest takeaways? Firstly, the Rangers weren't good then, and they aren't good now. Obviously not even I thought that their PDO would crater the way it did right after my post, and as a result it makes me look a lot more clever than I really am. Mostly it was just dumb luck and flukey timing. Nonetheless, there was a ton of dough to be won fading the hell out of the Rangers in the last month, as they won only 4 out of 15 games despite being a favourite in most of them. I didn't blindly fade, which was clearly a mistake, but I definitely faded them a lot.
Secondly, the Rangers STILL have the highest PDO in the league. Second is still Ottawa at 102.1. At least now though, their PDO is in the realm of realistic/sustainable and out of the historic/generational region. But the Rangers are still getting caved in on a nightly basis in terms of possession. I actually thought we'd see a bit of an uptick by now, since they do have a lot of good players. But they're still really bad, and while their CF% has gone up a little, their SC% hasn't moved, which is more significant/telling/worrying if you're a Rangers fan. They could still improve in this area, but every week that goes by makes it less and less likely.
Could the Rangers even miss the playoffs? It seems impossible given where they were, and due to the historical odds of teams in playoff position at this stage, but in reality they are only 5 points up on 9th-place New Jersey, who have a game in hand. Plus there are still perennial contenders like PIT and TBL on the outside looking in. On the plus side, the Rangers are second in the conference! I don't think Vigneault is sleeping well these days, and he shouldn't be. If Henrik should ever get hurt a la Carey Price, then look out.
After the first 21 games the Rangers were on pace for 133 points, and while I don't think anyone actually expected them to get that many, my little O/U side-bet with Vic looked shaky at best with the total set at 110. As of today, the Rangers are on pace for 100 points, and this despite one of the easiest schedules in the league, and playing a high percentage of their games at home thus far. Obviously this bet is by no means in the bag for me, and I'm not picking on Vic since I think a ton of people would have made that friendly wager, but I still think the Rangers are a playoff bubble team, and potentially worse if they don't change their player usage (cough cough Girardi) and systems. Actually, if Girardi stays hurt it might be the best trade they make all year, as he is among the 5 worst defencemen in the league who takes a regular shift, and that's ignoring his albatross contract.
In closing:
This is a team that has had one of the luckiest first halfs imaginable despite the recent struggles, and they still might be tooth and nail to make the playoffs. Lundqvist is STILL almost a full percentage point over his career average EV SV%, and their PP is top-5 and PK top-10. Their PDO is tops by a chunk and CF% and SCF% are among the worst in the league and don't seem to be improving. The Rangers likely won't play 55 pt pace hockey the rest of the way (as they have for the last 15 games), but it's certainly not unreasonable to think they'll play .500 from now until the end of the season. If they do, they'll finish with ~90 points and miss the playoffs. Probably unlikely, and I'll look like an idiot if they go on a big run now, but how many of you out there think the Rangers are a lock to finish with more than 100 points now?
As always comments and criticisms welcome. Merry Christmas!
