<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by bill the cop:
Sonny, lets break that paragraph down sentence by sentence so we can figure out what you don't understand.
1)"I'll say it again, bettors represent across-section of our society..."
Can you honestly say that that statement isn't true? Do you have some argument that would indicate that bettors aren't representative of the society as a whole?
2)"If a plurality of these people are puting their money on Bush, isn't it realistic to think they would vote that way"
Now lets be honest, you say you will vote for Kerry, fine, but are you actually puting your money on Bush? I doubt it, even though you now admit (because you're realistic) that Bush will win. WHY do you think Bush will win? Is it because you now think he is the better candidate? NO. Is it because you have been influenced by the people on this site? NOPE. The reason you think Bush will win is a combination of the polls and the betting line (which are intrinsically linked). Which brings us to the next sentence.
3)"In essence, voters/bettors actually decide the outcome of elections"
How can you deny something that is so self-evident?
4)"This is a much more powerful indicator of who will win an election, than sports professionals trying to "guess" the outcome of a ballgame"
Your own words substantiate this premise. You have already thrown in the towel on Kerry, even though he's only a +168 dog (as I type this, it's now Bush-216..Kerry+196). Would you concede a ballgame just because the underdog was +168? Of course not! This just goes to show the power of the polls/betting line when we compare elections to sporting events.
In the final anaysis, a poll is nothing more than a survey of public opinion obtained by conducting a scientific sampling of preferences from people likely to influence the outcome of the event. And that's where this nexus between polls and betting lines becomes crystal clear! <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Let me again try to enlighten you. This will be the last time I try. OK.
First of all, would you not say that this forum is a forum that gamblers post on. I would say just about all the posters here are bettors. Would you not agree????? That said, go over to the presidental poll that is the one on this message board. Who is ahead????? Looks like Kerry with a 59 to 41 % edge is ahead. That, my friend is a HUGE margin. Now that I told you the polling data on this board, do you think your theory might be flawed.
Now, since most here are Kerry voters, than how do you accoung for the 2-1 odds in GW favor. Only one way, most Kerry voters are not so inclined to lose their money. Cant you see what I am talking about.
Gee, cmon now, you are not that dumb. Let me give you another example. Let us say that Fla is playing Fla St. Let us take a poll and say Fla gets more votes to win in a pick em line. All of a sudden, Fla St gets the money, they become favorite. Still more pick Fla. So that is the same with the election, as bush forges ahead in the polls, more money comes in on him. ITS NOT THE REVERSE. I GIVE UP IF YOU CANNOT SEE THE DIFFERENCE!!!!!!!!
Sonny, lets break that paragraph down sentence by sentence so we can figure out what you don't understand.
1)"I'll say it again, bettors represent across-section of our society..."
Can you honestly say that that statement isn't true? Do you have some argument that would indicate that bettors aren't representative of the society as a whole?
2)"If a plurality of these people are puting their money on Bush, isn't it realistic to think they would vote that way"
Now lets be honest, you say you will vote for Kerry, fine, but are you actually puting your money on Bush? I doubt it, even though you now admit (because you're realistic) that Bush will win. WHY do you think Bush will win? Is it because you now think he is the better candidate? NO. Is it because you have been influenced by the people on this site? NOPE. The reason you think Bush will win is a combination of the polls and the betting line (which are intrinsically linked). Which brings us to the next sentence.
3)"In essence, voters/bettors actually decide the outcome of elections"
How can you deny something that is so self-evident?
4)"This is a much more powerful indicator of who will win an election, than sports professionals trying to "guess" the outcome of a ballgame"
Your own words substantiate this premise. You have already thrown in the towel on Kerry, even though he's only a +168 dog (as I type this, it's now Bush-216..Kerry+196). Would you concede a ballgame just because the underdog was +168? Of course not! This just goes to show the power of the polls/betting line when we compare elections to sporting events.
In the final anaysis, a poll is nothing more than a survey of public opinion obtained by conducting a scientific sampling of preferences from people likely to influence the outcome of the event. And that's where this nexus between polls and betting lines becomes crystal clear! <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Let me again try to enlighten you. This will be the last time I try. OK.
First of all, would you not say that this forum is a forum that gamblers post on. I would say just about all the posters here are bettors. Would you not agree????? That said, go over to the presidental poll that is the one on this message board. Who is ahead????? Looks like Kerry with a 59 to 41 % edge is ahead. That, my friend is a HUGE margin. Now that I told you the polling data on this board, do you think your theory might be flawed.
Now, since most here are Kerry voters, than how do you accoung for the 2-1 odds in GW favor. Only one way, most Kerry voters are not so inclined to lose their money. Cant you see what I am talking about.
Gee, cmon now, you are not that dumb. Let me give you another example. Let us say that Fla is playing Fla St. Let us take a poll and say Fla gets more votes to win in a pick em line. All of a sudden, Fla St gets the money, they become favorite. Still more pick Fla. So that is the same with the election, as bush forges ahead in the polls, more money comes in on him. ITS NOT THE REVERSE. I GIVE UP IF YOU CANNOT SEE THE DIFFERENCE!!!!!!!!
