<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by smokey:
Kailey, the best scalps I think are in football when you can get -2.5 on the favourite and get +3-4 on the underdog with little juice and all these places now give out bonuses too.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Smokey,
That's middling & bonus whoring, not scalping.
Kailey, the best scalps I think are in football when you can get -2.5 on the favourite and get +3-4 on the underdog with little juice and all these places now give out bonuses too.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Smokey,
That's middling & bonus whoring, not scalping.
So that we are all talking the same language:
Middle- Betting a game at two different spreads hoping that it lands on one of the numbers or in the middle of the numbers. Ex +4 and -2.
Scalping- This is a guaranteed win situation. Ex - Betting +140 and -130.
Buy back- This is betting one team and then some time later after the line moves betting the other side.
Middle- Betting a game at two different spreads hoping that it lands on one of the numbers or in the middle of the numbers. Ex +4 and -2.
Scalping- This is a guaranteed win situation. Ex - Betting +140 and -130.
Buy back- This is betting one team and then some time later after the line moves betting the other side.
Lander, you're funny, most people that gamble are middlers and bonus whores. I guess I shouldn't have given that example, but the De La Hoya is something that can be scalped. I have to agree with Raiders that scalping is really hard to do nowadays. Just better off to gamble and try to kick the mans ass.
ok....
IM convinced some of you guys arent reading the thread through. I know where/how to scalp. Im not as new to the game as my RX tag says. I also middle more than peanut butter and jelly.
WHat I was asking for if anyone had a mathematical way of knowing what to bet on each side to guarentee the same profit for both outcomes. I also thought there must be a calc on some webpage that did the work for ya.
IM convinced some of you guys arent reading the thread through. I know where/how to scalp. Im not as new to the game as my RX tag says. I also middle more than peanut butter and jelly.
WHat I was asking for if anyone had a mathematical way of knowing what to bet on each side to guarentee the same profit for both outcomes. I also thought there must be a calc on some webpage that did the work for ya.
Thanks, Darryl. kailey, that IS the mathematical solution - at least the one predicated on you plugging in the dog bet, the dog odds and the favorite odds - go see the post I put up before this one and you'll see the equation. Other equations exist for solving how much to bet on the dog based what you bet on the favorite, and also for calculating a scalp in those situations where both of the odds are positive, like a +110 and +100 ML scalp. I have no idea if this exists on someone's web page - that was why I recommended you use Excel to define the equation (or get someone to do it for you).
I'd like to point out that scalping serves another very helpful purpose: when you're trying to get your money out of a stiff or near-stiff book, or perhaps a book you're no longer comfortable keeping your money in but you don't have enough there to bother with a withdrawal. Knowing how to pay the least to do this is a good tool to have. Sure, you're not guaranteed of succeeding in getting the money out, but taking high ML dogs at the book you want your money out of is not a bad way to do it. And if it's a stiff book, sometimes you might scalp but lose money on the try (for example, say your dog was +400 but the favorite is -420), just to get the cash out - knowing how to solve another equation shown below will minimize your net loss involved in that case:
A = amt you bet on the dog in dollars and cents ($100)
B = dog odds (400)
C = favorite odds (420 – though actually -420, leave the minus sign off)
=( (A+ ((B/100) * A)) * (C/100) ) / (1 + (C/100) )
=( ($100 + ((400/100) * $100)) * (420/100) ) / (1 + (420/100) )
=( ($100 + (4 * $100)) * (4.2) ) / (1 + 4.20)
=( $100 + $400 ) * (4.2) ) / (5.20)
=( $500 * 4.2 ) / (5.20)
=($2,100) / (5.20)
=$403.84 is the amount you must bet on the favorite to pay the least possible cost
Dog wins: win $400 – loss $403.84 = -$3.84
Fav wins: win $96.15 – loss $100 = -$3.85
Note: the 2 amounts are off by a penny due to rounding - wasn't going to show you more than 2 decimals.
Excel can do this for you, instantly - if you don't know it, find someone who does. GL
I'd like to point out that scalping serves another very helpful purpose: when you're trying to get your money out of a stiff or near-stiff book, or perhaps a book you're no longer comfortable keeping your money in but you don't have enough there to bother with a withdrawal. Knowing how to pay the least to do this is a good tool to have. Sure, you're not guaranteed of succeeding in getting the money out, but taking high ML dogs at the book you want your money out of is not a bad way to do it. And if it's a stiff book, sometimes you might scalp but lose money on the try (for example, say your dog was +400 but the favorite is -420), just to get the cash out - knowing how to solve another equation shown below will minimize your net loss involved in that case:
A = amt you bet on the dog in dollars and cents ($100)
B = dog odds (400)
C = favorite odds (420 – though actually -420, leave the minus sign off)
=( (A+ ((B/100) * A)) * (C/100) ) / (1 + (C/100) )
=( ($100 + ((400/100) * $100)) * (420/100) ) / (1 + (420/100) )
=( ($100 + (4 * $100)) * (4.2) ) / (1 + 4.20)
=( $100 + $400 ) * (4.2) ) / (5.20)
=( $500 * 4.2 ) / (5.20)
=($2,100) / (5.20)
=$403.84 is the amount you must bet on the favorite to pay the least possible cost
Dog wins: win $400 – loss $403.84 = -$3.84
Fav wins: win $96.15 – loss $100 = -$3.85
Note: the 2 amounts are off by a penny due to rounding - wasn't going to show you more than 2 decimals.
Excel can do this for you, instantly - if you don't know it, find someone who does. GL
Nice post Jazz, good stuff. Nothing puts me on a winning streak at a book more than trying to get out. Won't name the book but was trying to scalp out of it after hearing rumblings of trouble and must have hit 5 or 6 in a row before I could lose. Balance was so big at the end I had to use two books on the other side to get the bets down, LOL. I'm talking +200's and up that kept coming in on the wrong side.
Daryl,
I know this and am thankful to Jazz. I was referring to the other people trying to describe middling as a scalp and others giving the definition of a scalp to me when I was seeking advice such as Jazz. I hardly thinkg he needs sticking up for though.
Im not being greedy I'm just gonne milk the knowledge to take in as much as possibly. I will definately be plaing with the formulas offered his far and will keep my eyes peeled in case someone does actually have a website that does it for you. Or maybe someone has the formula for knowing what ot bed on the dog when you have a set wager for the favorite.
I know this and am thankful to Jazz. I was referring to the other people trying to describe middling as a scalp and others giving the definition of a scalp to me when I was seeking advice such as Jazz. I hardly thinkg he needs sticking up for though.
Im not being greedy I'm just gonne milk the knowledge to take in as much as possibly. I will definately be plaing with the formulas offered his far and will keep my eyes peeled in case someone does actually have a website that does it for you. Or maybe someone has the formula for knowing what ot bed on the dog when you have a set wager for the favorite.
Daryl,
I know this and am thankful to Jazz. I was referring to the other people trying to describe middling as a scalp and others giving the definition of a scalp to me when I was seeking advice such as Jazz. I hardly thinkg he needs sticking up for though.
Im not being greedy I'm just gonne milk the knowledge to take in as much as possibly. I will definately be plaing with the formulas offered his far and will keep my eyes peeled in case someone does actually have a website that does it for you. Or maybe someone has the formula for knowing what ot bed on the dog when you have a set wager for the favorite.
I know this and am thankful to Jazz. I was referring to the other people trying to describe middling as a scalp and others giving the definition of a scalp to me when I was seeking advice such as Jazz. I hardly thinkg he needs sticking up for though.
Im not being greedy I'm just gonne milk the knowledge to take in as much as possibly. I will definately be plaing with the formulas offered his far and will keep my eyes peeled in case someone does actually have a website that does it for you. Or maybe someone has the formula for knowing what ot bed on the dog when you have a set wager for the favorite.
Or maybe someone has the formula for knowing what ot bed on the dog when you have a set wager for the favorite.
= (A + (A / (B/100))) /( (C/100) + 1)
A = amt you bet on the favorite in dollars and cents ($100)
B = favorite odds (420, though actually -420, leave the minus sign off)
C = dog odds (400)
This time you do the math
= (A + (A / (B/100))) /( (C/100) + 1)
A = amt you bet on the favorite in dollars and cents ($100)
B = favorite odds (420, though actually -420, leave the minus sign off)
C = dog odds (400)
This time you do the math
"Jazz,
It this your idea of charity The way I see it is if this guy can't do some simple algebra then he shouldn't be gambling."
Lander: awww, come on man, you know not everyone is cut out for deriving algebraic equations - a lot of people don't do well in math, I know that may be not the case for almost all pro or semi-pro gamblers, but he never said he was a pro, just wanting some info. Some of the best people I've ever known in my life never graduated high school - not implying he hasn't, just saying that it ain't charity for me, just a simple act of genuinely trying to be helpful. And not everyone's cut out to do programming in an Excel spreadsheet or spell well, but that doesn't make them incapable of being a good gambler. Having no cash, now THAT would be a good reason, unless you're scamming other gamblers.
It this your idea of charity The way I see it is if this guy can't do some simple algebra then he shouldn't be gambling."
Lander: awww, come on man, you know not everyone is cut out for deriving algebraic equations - a lot of people don't do well in math, I know that may be not the case for almost all pro or semi-pro gamblers, but he never said he was a pro, just wanting some info. Some of the best people I've ever known in my life never graduated high school - not implying he hasn't, just saying that it ain't charity for me, just a simple act of genuinely trying to be helpful. And not everyone's cut out to do programming in an Excel spreadsheet or spell well, but that doesn't make them incapable of being a good gambler. Having no cash, now THAT would be a good reason, unless you're scamming other gamblers.
If you use Excel this might help:
Column A1 type amount of money: e.g. 1 000
Column B1 type odds on favorite: e.g. -130
Column C1 type odds on dog: e.g. +140
Column B2 type this formula: =SUM(1/((100/-B1)+1))*A1
Column C2 type this formula: =SUM(1/(C1/100+1))*A1
Column D2 type this formula: =SUM(A1-(B2+C2))
*****
Column B2 tells you how much to lay on fav with 1 000 units bankroll, in this case 565.22
Column C2 tells you how much to lay on dog with 1000 units bankroll, in this case 416.67
Column D2 telss you how much you will make profit: 18.12
Column A1 type amount of money: e.g. 1 000
Column B1 type odds on favorite: e.g. -130
Column C1 type odds on dog: e.g. +140
Column B2 type this formula: =SUM(1/((100/-B1)+1))*A1
Column C2 type this formula: =SUM(1/(C1/100+1))*A1
Column D2 type this formula: =SUM(A1-(B2+C2))
*****
Column B2 tells you how much to lay on fav with 1 000 units bankroll, in this case 565.22
Column C2 tells you how much to lay on dog with 1000 units bankroll, in this case 416.67
Column D2 telss you how much you will make profit: 18.12
