lone star race 5
A very difficult race to ponder on so I will lay down the facts and see if someone could find an edge worth exploiting.
I listed ml and my approx odds as this one seems to be a real doozy in figuring out what the public will do apart from the obvious
mistakes
#1 gracely ---- at first glance the jump looks tough, but if you review it further the pattern is strong ,and all numbers were done at
age 5 , may or not be significant but does look like he can repeat . also he is 50 percent in the money at this track
5-1 ml seems a fair approximation could be as low as 4-1 on real line
#2 catechism---- the starter allowance race was a weak one , ships , and will be question mark on this surface .
the style and number power are in his favour but the line seems way too low because of the setbacks.
the trainer is always consistent but if he doesn't open up super strong which he shouldn't it will tell u
everything you need to know about his chances . still could get it done
3-1 ml seems a bit low here and should be more like 4-1 on real line but the tote ?? who knows here
#3 special treasure -- a first glance looks hopeless but upon further review he has one in him if he ever runs back to it .
Last race indicates it is possible he gets back to it , especially if he could find a way into the top
three early in the race .
12 -1 ml is about right as the simms do not coincide. but realistically should be 10-1 on real line
#4 peka -- 8 time loser at class and holds no simms. But again there is a sign there if you look deep enough
that does not make him impossible here . big work and 1 for 2 at track counts for something especially when
most in here are question marks on this surface .
10-1 ml but the no simm evaluator may push him alot higher than that but realistically should be 10-1on the real line
because of all the question marks surrounding the race
#5 ignis -- this is obviously the ml underlay of the race . unfortunaltely does hold the right pattern and connections
have been hot . 7-2 ml does not do it justice and realistically should be 5-1 but the tote may actually make him fave here at 3-1 or 5-2
good luck to you if you bet him I sure won't be down on him
#6 sugar and sass-- alot of players will be looking to cash on this longshot as simms are strong. but he does hold too negative strong simms that account for
a big percentage of winners on this oval. If you get your price he is worth it but simms won't allow the price to escalate as the pattern here is really really
strong
8-1 ml but realistically be 5-1 on real line, think the tote may reflect the real line here but ??
#7 hunny hush - the reversal is not immediate and pattern is not strong but connections and lifetime best are .
9-2 ml was ambitious as his real line should be 8-or 9-1 but alot of times the public likes to get on these big trainers so may be around 6-1 on tote and is not worth it
at that price imo
#8 spot on -- holds the 2 biggest simms along with the #6. Style in his favour and so are the connections. Problem is the number power is on the short side
but the question surrounding everyone else might work in his favour
15- ml was a complete oversight and realistic line is 5-1 . but what will the tote do , depends on how much they hit the #7 but it will probably read 5-1 or 6-1
#9 run ballerina - holds no simms and pattern extremely weak
20-1 ml but realistic line 60-1
very tough race and good luck to all
A very difficult race to ponder on so I will lay down the facts and see if someone could find an edge worth exploiting.
I listed ml and my approx odds as this one seems to be a real doozy in figuring out what the public will do apart from the obvious
mistakes
#1 gracely ---- at first glance the jump looks tough, but if you review it further the pattern is strong ,and all numbers were done at
age 5 , may or not be significant but does look like he can repeat . also he is 50 percent in the money at this track
5-1 ml seems a fair approximation could be as low as 4-1 on real line
#2 catechism---- the starter allowance race was a weak one , ships , and will be question mark on this surface .
the style and number power are in his favour but the line seems way too low because of the setbacks.
the trainer is always consistent but if he doesn't open up super strong which he shouldn't it will tell u
everything you need to know about his chances . still could get it done
3-1 ml seems a bit low here and should be more like 4-1 on real line but the tote ?? who knows here
#3 special treasure -- a first glance looks hopeless but upon further review he has one in him if he ever runs back to it .
Last race indicates it is possible he gets back to it , especially if he could find a way into the top
three early in the race .
12 -1 ml is about right as the simms do not coincide. but realistically should be 10-1 on real line
#4 peka -- 8 time loser at class and holds no simms. But again there is a sign there if you look deep enough
that does not make him impossible here . big work and 1 for 2 at track counts for something especially when
most in here are question marks on this surface .
10-1 ml but the no simm evaluator may push him alot higher than that but realistically should be 10-1on the real line
because of all the question marks surrounding the race
#5 ignis -- this is obviously the ml underlay of the race . unfortunaltely does hold the right pattern and connections
have been hot . 7-2 ml does not do it justice and realistically should be 5-1 but the tote may actually make him fave here at 3-1 or 5-2
good luck to you if you bet him I sure won't be down on him
#6 sugar and sass-- alot of players will be looking to cash on this longshot as simms are strong. but he does hold too negative strong simms that account for
a big percentage of winners on this oval. If you get your price he is worth it but simms won't allow the price to escalate as the pattern here is really really
strong
8-1 ml but realistically be 5-1 on real line, think the tote may reflect the real line here but ??
#7 hunny hush - the reversal is not immediate and pattern is not strong but connections and lifetime best are .
9-2 ml was ambitious as his real line should be 8-or 9-1 but alot of times the public likes to get on these big trainers so may be around 6-1 on tote and is not worth it
at that price imo
#8 spot on -- holds the 2 biggest simms along with the #6. Style in his favour and so are the connections. Problem is the number power is on the short side
but the question surrounding everyone else might work in his favour
15- ml was a complete oversight and realistic line is 5-1 . but what will the tote do , depends on how much they hit the #7 but it will probably read 5-1 or 6-1
#9 run ballerina - holds no simms and pattern extremely weak
20-1 ml but realistic line 60-1
very tough race and good luck to all
