39.....holy smokes. I can't remember the last time a college total was under 40 points. This game could very well end like 16-13 or 19-14. The only thing I hate about such a low total is that you always worry about a special teams or defensive score. I wonder if this total goes up some. Would love this to get to 41 but that might be wishful thinking. I do like the under quite a bit here though even at 39.
By Comparison:
1 Unit: BSU vs ARIZ Under 69...My take. Arizona averages over 40 PPG when they win (10 this season). Boise State averages slightly under 45 PPG when they win (11 times this season). The game is being played in Glendale AZ, which means perfect weather because of the indoor stadium. The last 4 Fiesta Bowls have seen scores of 48-20, 41-38, 35-17, and 52-42. This looks like an easy over, but I will pass. Unlike others in here, I do not wager on every game, and ther are a lot better games on the board.
1 Unit: MISS vs TCU Over 56...Obviously this game is about which defenses show up. The early in the season defenses, or the later in the season defenses. I think the later defenses will show up, so if I were playing this total (and I am not just yet), I would also go Over.
1 Unit: MSU +1.5 vs BAY..Not even close. While I will be pulling for MSU to win, a Baylor loss basically crushes the entire Big 12 Conference and makes the Committee look like they are brilliant. Sometimes you just have to look beyone the numbers. Baylor is the play. Why are you bothering to play a +1.5 line? If you are going to play MSU, the CORRECT play is MSU plus the Money Line.
1 Unit: FSU vs ORE Over 71..I totally agree with you analysis. The only reservation that I have is that the Oregon defense has given up only 85 points in it's past 5 games (17 PPG), but four of those five opponents were low scoring teams going in. Florida State hs played nothing that comes close to the Oregon offense. Over is my pick as well.
3/5th Unit: MSST vs GT Over 59.5..Pass. Neither team has impressed me.
3/5th Unit: OSU vs ALA Over 57.5..I do not see Ohiio State being able to score on 'Bama's defense. They are too run oriented and 'Bama's D-backs are very good. 'Bama tends to play down to their competition offensively, defeating Arkansas 14-13, LSU 20-13, Miss. State 25-20, and Mizzou 42-13. All under 57.5. Pass, but gun to head, Under.
1 Unit: GT +7 vs MSST..The line is up to 7 1/2 now, and that is too many points to give. Tech is not playing the SEC East. Play Miss. St. at +7 1/2 or higher.
The rest of your plays are just an attempt to play every game, which is why you never make a real profit, if you make any at all. Now if you are just picking these games, and not wagering on them, that is another story. If you are actually trying to sell me on the fact that you play every one of these games, I say that this season you can not come close to my 57.5% win rate of this season, and that is certainly not the best rate in here.
1 Unit: BSU vs ARIZ Under 69...My take. Arizona averages over 40 PPG when they win (10 this season). Boise State averages slightly under 45 PPG when they win (11 times this season). The game is being played in Glendale AZ, which means perfect weather because of the indoor stadium. The last 4 Fiesta Bowls have seen scores of 48-20, 41-38, 35-17, and 52-42. This looks like an easy over, but I will pass. Unlike others in here, I do not wager on every game, and ther are a lot better games on the board.
1 Unit: MISS vs TCU Over 56...Obviously this game is about which defenses show up. The early in the season defenses, or the later in the season defenses. I think the later defenses will show up, so if I were playing this total (and I am not just yet), I would also go Over.
1 Unit: MSU +1.5 vs BAY..Not even close. While I will be pulling for MSU to win, a Baylor loss basically crushes the entire Big 12 Conference and makes the Committee look like they are brilliant. Sometimes you just have to look beyone the numbers. Baylor is the play. Why are you bothering to play a +1.5 line? If you are going to play MSU, the CORRECT play is MSU plus the Money Line.
1 Unit: FSU vs ORE Over 71..I totally agree with you analysis. The only reservation that I have is that the Oregon defense has given up only 85 points in it's past 5 games (17 PPG), but four of those five opponents were low scoring teams going in. Florida State hs played nothing that comes close to the Oregon offense. Over is my pick as well.
3/5th Unit: MSST vs GT Over 59.5..Pass. Neither team has impressed me.
3/5th Unit: OSU vs ALA Over 57.5..I do not see Ohiio State being able to score on 'Bama's defense. They are too run oriented and 'Bama's D-backs are very good. 'Bama tends to play down to their competition offensively, defeating Arkansas 14-13, LSU 20-13, Miss. State 25-20, and Mizzou 42-13. All under 57.5. Pass, but gun to head, Under.
1 Unit: GT +7 vs MSST..The line is up to 7 1/2 now, and that is too many points to give. Tech is not playing the SEC East. Play Miss. St. at +7 1/2 or higher.
The rest of your plays are just an attempt to play every game, which is why you never make a real profit, if you make any at all. Now if you are just picking these games, and not wagering on them, that is another story. If you are actually trying to sell me on the fact that you play every one of these games, I say that this season you can not come close to my 57.5% win rate of this season, and that is certainly not the best rate in here.
'I do not see Ohiio State being able to score on 'Bama's defense. They are too run oriented and 'Bama's D-backs are very good. 'Bama tends to play down to their competition offensively, defeating Arkansas 14-13, LSU 20-13, Miss. State 25-20, and Mizzou 42-13. All under 57.5. Pass, but gun to head, Under.'
Bama's D backs are very good ... you are delusional. Easily, the weakness of Alabama's defense. Mauch, from Missouri can't pass a lick and he threw for 272 yards. Marshall for Auburn threw for 456 yards and three touchdowns. Prescott passed for 290 yards and Wallace passed for 251 yards and three touchdowns. If you insist on bringing nothing to this forum and continue to be a douche about coming into his threads try to bring just a scintilla of accuracy.
Hey! Was just about to get to that, lol.
Adding for 1 Unit: ARMY VS NAVY Over 56 (yes, in addition to the Over 59 I have going)
These two teams play each other to low-scoring games, it's true. I'm bucking the trend here. You have to go back to 2005 to find
the last time this game played Over this number.
I will walk headlong into the woodchipper of history and piece myself together tiny chunks at a time if I have to after this game.
Navy has a really strong run game this year. They pass the ball efficiently on the infrequent occasions when they either need to or surprise with. Army has just an okay run game really, and aren't very good when passing the ball.
On top of that, both of these teams have bad run defenses. Army in particular has one of the worst run defenses in the country. Navy should be able to name their price in this game, they could go for 56 themselves...or that familiarity thingy rears it's head again and you get a 38-10 type game. Both of these teams have had almost all of their last 5-6 games at least reach 56 points. Is familiarity and history worth that much to the total? Guess I'll find out, perhaps the hard way so Grandpa Crotchety can drop by for another I told you so.
