Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 11 college football picks, bets and nuggets
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIAL"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica preview Week 11 of the 2022 college football season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Odds and lines are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Records:
The Bear (Last week: 3-0. Season: 36-16-1)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 3-0. Season: 22-18-1)
The plays
Louisville Cardinals at No. 10 Clemson Tigers (-7, 52)
The Bear: Typically this would be a logical play of Clemson coming off a blowout loss, but I'm not seeing that here. It's impossible to see how either quarterback has any confidence right now. Louisville has strung together four straight wins and has surprisingly played very well on the defensive side of the ball much of the year. Clemson's defense may carry them to a win, but I'd be surprised if it were easy.
Pick: Louisville +7
Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-3.5, 64)
The Bear: Last week the Jayhawks celebrated as if they had won the Super Bowl -- and I couldn't be happier for them. But this feels like a good spot to fade KU as they head to Lubbock, where the Red Raiders have already beaten Texas, drubbed WVU and beaten Houston. Tech needs two more wins to get bowl-eligible, and this is likely the easiest spot to get one of them.
Pick: Texas Tech -3.5
Fresno State Bulldogs (-9.5, 60.5) at UNLV Runnin' Rebels
Stanford Steve: We are running out of games in Fresno State QB Jake Haener's career. I've stated many times: He is my favorite QB in college football. With that being said, I feel the need to back him and his team as the games are dwindling. They got the offense up and running last week, which was Haener's second game back from injury. These two teams seem to be going in opposite directions, seeing how UNLV hasn't scored more than 21 points in a game since September. We'll take the road team in Las Vegas Friday night and lay the points.
Pick: Fresno State -9.5 (Fresno State 34 UNLV 20)
Army Black Knights at Troy Trojans (-9, 46)
Stanford Steve: I'm gonna give you two names you probably haven't heard this year. The first is Eric McDaniel, the defensive line coach for the Trojans who coached defense at Army before that. The other name is Shiel Wood. He is the current defensive coordinator at Troy -- before that he was the co-defensive coordinator at West Point for two years. Before that he coached at Georgia Tech under Paul Johnson. Prior to that, Wood coached at Wofford for seven years, and that was after playing there for four years. These guys have been around option football for a very long time. Troy is already a very good team on defense and they will be prepared this week. It will be a low-scoring game, so we'll take the under.
Pick: Under 46 (Troy 23, Army 14)
No. 15 North Carolina Tar Heels at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-3.5, 77)
The Bear: Wake Forest has pretty much thrown up all over itself the last two weeks with 11 turnovers in road losses to NC State and Louisville. This is a really good spot to get right offensively against the 117th ranked team in the country in defensive efficiency. UNC will get theirs on offense, that's for sure, but Wake being favored probably caught a lot of casual observers off guard. Vegas typically doesn't make mistakes with situations like this. I still think UNC gets to the ACC title game and has a great chance to win. But Saturday feels like a get-right spot for Wake off two horrific turnover riddled performances.
Pick: Wake Forest -3.5
Stanford Steve: Last week, we took Baylor as an underdog and they got home for us, winning the game on the field. This week, we'll continue to ride the Bears as Dave Aranda has this team ascending at the perfect time of year, with a visit from the No. 4 TCU Horned Frogs coming next week. The offense, led by offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes, (who I would bet is a head coach next year) continues to score plenty of points and have averaged 39.5 points per game over the last four contests.
Pick: Baylor -2.5 (Baylor 31, Kansas State 23)
The Bear's money-line parlay
Like some big favorites but don't want to lay the points? Here are some to parlay together.$100 returns $173
Last Week: +124
Season: +10
Tennessee Volunteers -1500
Kentucky Wildcats -900
Arkansas State Red Wolves -1050
Michigan Wolverines -10000
NC State Wolfpack -1150
Minnesota Golden Gophers -950
UTSA Roadrunners -1050
Air Force Falcons -2400
South Alabama Jaguars -750
Georgia Bulldogs -850
Utah Utes -2100
UCLA Bruins -1250
Boise State Broncos -1650
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line
Last Week: 2-2, +0.4Season: 11-29, -12.25 units
Louisville Cardinals +230
Rutgers Scarlet Knights +310
Syracuse Orange +215
Purdue Boilermakers +210
Bear bytes
No. 4 TCU Horned Frogs at No. 18 Texas LonghornsSince 1979, there have been six instances of a team with at least three losses being favored over a team 9-0 or better in the regular season. However, none of the six favorites were favored by more than a field goal, so this marks the biggest a team with three losses or more has been favored over a 9-0 or better team.
The last time this happened came in 2019, when 6-3 Iowa was favored by a field goal over 9-0 Minnesota and won 23-19 at Kinnick Stadium.
3+ Loss Team Favored Over Team 9-0 Or Better In Regular Season (Since 1979)
| YEAR | TEAM | SPREAD | OPPONENT | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Iowa | -3 | Minnesota | Won 23-19 |
| 2012 | Wisconsin | -2 | Ohio State | Lost 21-14 |
| 2003 | Southern Miss | -2.5 | TCU | Won 40-28 |
| 1993 | Michigan | -1 | Ohio State | Won 28-0 |
| 1993 | Georgia | -1.5 | Auburn | Lost 42-28 |
| 1990 | Colorado State | -3 | Wyoming | Won 17-8 |
Top 5 Team Being An Underdog To A Team Not Ranked In The Top 10
| YEAR | TEAM | SPREAD | OPPONENT | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Iowa | -3 | Minnesota | Won 23-19 |
| 2012 | Wisconsin | -2 | Ohio State | Lost 21-14 |
| 2003 | Southern Miss | -2.5 | TCU | Won 40-28 |
| 1993 | Michigan | -1 | Ohio State | Won 28-0 |
| 1993 | Georgia | -1.5 | Auburn | Lost 42-28 |
| 1990 | Colorado State | -3 | Wyoming | Won 17-8 |
The game I've been waiting for all year! Two coaches on the opposite ends of close-game success when the spread is between -3.5 and +3.5.
W-L When Spread Is Within -3.5 And +3.5
| SINCE 2016 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Campbell | 5-16 | 1-4 |
| Mike Gundy | 14-5 | 1-2 |
Entering this week's games, Stanford has the same record as Colorado (14-25) since the start of 2019. The only teams with a worse win percentage in that span: Nebraska, Northwestern, Rutgers, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Arizona and Vanderbilt.
Louisville Cardinals at No. 10 Clemson Tigers
This is the fourth time in the last five ACC home games that Clemson is a single-digit favorite. Prior to this stretch, the Tigers were double-digit ACC home favorites in 22 straight games.
No. 7 LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks
LSU hasn't covered a game the week after Alabama since 2017 (0-3-1 ATS).
No. 25 Washington Huskies at No. 6 Oregon Ducks
Oregon has covered each of the last 13 games vs. Washington in which the Ducks were favored, a streak that dates back to 2004.
Liberty Flames at Connecticut Huskies
UConn is 8-2 ATS this season, having covered six straight, including outright underdog wins vs. Fresno State and Boston College.
