Thanksgiving Day Play

[theDonger]

Hello to all, I've been reading this forum for a couple of years now and just created an account today I've followed the advice of some here, and well, went against the "GOY" calls made by so many-- kinda like last night with NE hanging to cover.

Anyway, I'm up 17 units for the season, and thought I would through my hat in the ring with my predictions for Thursday.

Indianapolis @ Detroit -9

I saw this game Sunday night open at -7 and I wanted to get in then, but I waited until after the Monday night game. I was really confident that NE would cover the -3 and I would have more money to put into this game. Now, today at -9, I'll gladly take it. Hell I'd take -13 on this game. I know Detroit always plays well on Thanksgiving, there's something about it. However, I just don't see it. This team is averaging 18 points per game-- while Indy is averaging around 35. They've got no running game-- and a Joey Harrington that is inconsistent at best. They're playing in Detroit, on the turf, and I'm sure Indy will do fine on the turf, with Manning throwing 3-4 TDs and Edgerin James rushing for 2 TDs as well. I equate this game to the Philly/Dallas MNF game or more recently the Indy/Bears game last week.

Prediction: Indy 38, Det 17
Play: Indy -9 *17 units (yes, i'm heavy on this game)


My Chicago @ Dallas writeup will be much shorter. Simply put, the Bears have NO offense- NONE. The defense might show up and help put a couple FGs on the board--

Play: Dallas -3.5 / Under36 (no play for me on this one)

 

[TheGeneral+]

Welcome and good luck. I am Indy fan and follower. I cannot bet on them yet. I don't agree with your money management here, risking your profits on one game, but do wish you the best and hope you are right.

 

[Lawrence]

Welcome and good luck. I am Indy fan and follower. I cannot bet on them yet. I don't agree with your money management here, risking your profits on one game, but do wish you the best and hope you are right.

general, can you elaborate a bit on why you can't bet them? I ask because I have a strong lean to Indy on thurs. Thanks!

 

[TheGeneral+]

Defensive problems and injuries.

 

[Lawrence]

Thanks General. Don't you think Doss will make up for the injured rookie?

 

[TheGeneral+]

No, I think we need all the bodies we can get. Not sure if you seen the Chicago game, but Chicago's TO's made the game a blowout, not necessarily the colts good play.

 

[RobFunk]

detroit has been bad for years but they manage to come up with a bs back door cover on thanksgiving 2/3 years it seems. like that game against green bay.

that is a lot of points to give to mooch and detroit at home on thanksgiving. detroit can score they have 2 great wide recievers and a great QB and also great coaching.

i dont know which way im going but it doesnt seem so clear cut to me.

the other thing to look at it is the short rest, who can expose it more?!

 

[theDonger]

detroit has been bad for years but they manage to come up with a bs back door cover on thanksgiving 2/3 years it seems. like that game against green bay.

that is a lot of points to give to mooch and detroit at home on thanksgiving. detroit can score they have 2 great wide recievers and a great QB and also great coaching.

i dont know which way im going but it doesnt seem so clear cut to me.

the other thing to look at it is the short rest, who can expose it more?!

Detroit has a great QB?? Since when?? I see great *potential* in harrington,.. but in his last 4 games, he has 4 TDs and for INTs-- And if you want to talk about intangibles, this is likely Harringtons last start to prove himself. The Detroit crowd is gonna be all over every little mishap/mistake that he makes.

2 Great Wide Recievers?? Again I must ask who-- I see Roy Williams, and thats it--

Bottom line is the Lions have an anemic offense --- a patchwork defense that will NOT be able to stop the Colts. I don't think the Colts will have much scheming/planning to do for a Lions offense that is doesn't do anything special, that has one star reciever, and an unproven running back--

Lets not forget about the Colts being able to run the ball with Edgerin James against the 23rd ranked rushing defense in the league.

I see -9 is alot of points to cover, i just cannot believe that it will be anywhere near this close-- I think its a 14pt game and MAYBE (big maybe) its a 10pt win for Indy.

The better team will win. Just like Philly/Dallas on MNF and Philly/Wash last week-- The mismatches are too great for intangibles to affect the outcome-- Make it Barry Sanders day, bring out Mike Uttley,-- unless you have real live LIONS clawing at the colts players--- Manning and Co. coasts to a victory-

 

[Highdaddy]

isnt Indy on back to back road games and a short week to practice

 

[Hanzandfranz]

Detroit needs to run Kevin Jones as much as they can to slow down this game. Detroit special teams needs to perform well....haven't they had a couple TD's recently?

 

[TheOdyssey]

I, like the General, am a huge Indy fan. I will tell you one thing I don't like about this game. I am a numbers guy and some time this year Manning HAS to play badly. Just ask the law of averages. The General made a great point of the defense of Indy. You don't know how frustrating it is to have an offense like the Colts have only to see a defense that is simply TERRIBLE. It seems like they may have spent too much time loading up the offense and not enough time getting a solid. I am not saying don't take them but I can't ever bet on them since my heart can confuse my head. Good luck to all and Happy Thanksgiving.

 

[bblight]

The General is right on this game. Thanksgiving and Detroit are synonomous - and Detroit sees this as their day - they'll give this game their best.
Indy will want to get through this and then get home to celebrate the remainder of the holiday with their families - and they also have two division games coming up - against Tennessee next week and Houston the following week - so they might not give this game all of their effort.

As I noted in another post - this is one of those game days where stats ands systems and trends don't mean a hell of a lot.

Take Detroit and the 10 points.

 

[jdub6810]

If you insist on betting this game, you gotta take the strong team, or pass on it. If you look at Detriot's scoring this season, they had 2 games where they scored 28 points, against the Giants & Texans. Otherwise they have not scored many points. Then look at Colts scoring. They scored 24 points 3 times - twice against Jacksonville, & once against the Patsies. That was against good defense. Otherwise Colts have been a scoring machine. Barring surprise turnovers or injuries, it's hard to see how the colts score less than 30 points tomorrow. It's also hard to see the Lions scoring more than 28 points, since the Colts defense is on the upswing. Basically the Lions will have to play better offense than average, & the Colts play worse offense than average, for the game to be close. The points near double digits is probably about right, taking these factors into account. So the question is, who's gonna show up to play well??? Peyton Manning or Joey Harrington? They guy with so much talent he's about to scorch Dan Marino's TD record, or the guy that might lose his job if he keeps up his lackluster play?

Then look at defense. The only teams to score more than 25 points on the Colts have been strong offenses- Packers, Vikes, Patsies. Lackluster offenses are getting less than 25. The Lions defense has given up 30+ points only twice. However those losses were to Packers & Eagles, who have the best offenses in the league.

So if trends hold tomorrow, Colts should win 35-21 or so. Unless Lions pull out a garbage time touchdown to kill the public bettors...

 

[theDonger]

know i'm late following up on this, but I hope everyone got a piece of the action on this one--- looked at first like the Lions were gonna pull another T-DAY miracle, but in the end, looked just like the Bears game last week.

Record: 1-0 +33 units (not sure if anyone cares)

+2 units once manning hits 49 TDs for the year

I'll post a new thread my picks for sunday tomorrow--been pretty hot lately, lets keep it rollin'

SDD