Thanks for the input.
The model made 41.23U in 15 days (March 15th - March 30th), then consistently units, loss 22.27U from March 31st until yesterday. Maybe being closer to playoffs and teams looking to get it, player bonuses, sitting players of teams that already clinched a playoff spot, and maybe just the fact that its a new month.
Yesterday 6-3 for +3.73U
Totals 69-51 +20.09U
No Games Today
Fading the model felt like the right move. I think I just messed up on the Charlotte/Boston pick, as i had Boston winning by 47. The other picks were just 1/1.5/2 Units picks. Boston -7 was a 4U pick so I think I cannot fade those.
See you Sunday and good luck.
Totals 69-51 +20.09U
No Games Today
Fading the model felt like the right move. I think I just messed up on the Charlotte/Boston pick, as i had Boston winning by 47. The other picks were just 1/1.5/2 Units picks. Boston -7 was a 4U pick so I think I cannot fade those.
See you Sunday and good luck.
You are correct about that. Players sitting out, saving themselves for playoffs. It happens all the time. Example Det/Dal the line only 13 1/2 told you was going to cover even though you knew the big guns would not be playing. You could only use games that mean something. Tomorrow 1 of the games that has a lot of meaning to both teams is Min/Phoenix. Both of these teams have something to play for.
Yes i think it makes a lot of sense.
Right now PHX/MIN is -4 217.5
The model has MIN winning by 10 points, 118-108, but this doesnt means that MIN is the pick, in fact, there is no pick on this game. Right now i would fade it, take PHX +4.
But as you mentioned, the model doesnt takes into account playoff implications and the feeling that the season could come to and end to some teams. Also, all players play differently when the pressure is on.
