They're actually a big producer, ranked 17th over all. Their economy is pretty dependent on oil production.
They're actually a big producer, ranked 17th over all. Their economy is pretty dependent on oil production.
That's a tough question obviously. I think the US can cut consumption a good amount over the next 10-15 years if we truly want to. It's tough to say what the other countries will do demand wise. Probably more of a question about global growth. With all the developing countries that are going to need oil I can't imagine EVs changing the car business will immediately be the end of oil, think it will be fine for awhile. Predicting the future isn't easy obviously, in 2004 when everyone had those stupid Nextel Walky Talky things, did anyone think the Smart Phone was right around the corner? Now everyone has a mini-laptop in their pocket
I can't see oil contracting that greatly but who knows? That might be because we've lived in a world where it is the absolute lifeblood of our economy forever and we just can't wrap our head around it.
I will say this, there are easy uses for EVs where you don't even think. For instance, I'd be surprised if garbage trucks weren't something like a whopping 50% EV in 10 years. All the stop and go is terrible for fuel efficiency so going electric is really a no brainer. Taxi's and delivery trucks are no brainers.
The battery industry is making huge advancements as we speak. It's very likely that the lithium laptop batteries that Tesla uses could be out the door before that giant factory is even complete. Aluminum battery technology seems to be the area where the industry is going. The possibility of simply adding water as the method of recharging and a much simpler manufacturing process could bite Tesla.
Get back to me when they come up with a phone battery I don't have to charge twice a day.
I think the lack of advancement in battery technology is one of the single greatest things that is holding us up right now
Yeah it is possible. I will say this though, LI-ion is ready to scale in the very near future. There could be many gigafactories coming online in the next 5 years. Will it be displaced fast? Perhaps but this isn't hydrogen fuel cell cars or EVs back in the 90s, some fairytale technology of the future that may or may not succeed.
Even if advancements without lithium do happen, Tesla still has a huge lead in car design on competitors. They could just use the newer technology (with bumps in the road of course)
BTW, China has huge lithium reserves. So the idea of them being addicted to gas guzzlers as more people enter the middle class could even be wrong.
Are you kidding me? The conspiracy side of me says they already have the technology to keep your phone charged for a full week or month but they are piece mealing it out little by little so you keep paying $400-500 for the latest phone that really "isn't" the latest phone.
The first phone that comes up with a monthly charge becomes the best selling phone in history overnight .
Dont think anyone would hold that back .
Yeah but we do hear a lot about _____ is 2 years from XYZ for awhile. Lithium could have some breakthroughs in terms of efficiency and cost in the meantime as well. As it becomes emphasized more and the reward becomes greater then who knows what they can comeup with. If they get lithium to like 100kWh and start scaling production then research for other technologies could dryup fast.
If you can put a 70kWh powertrain into a car for < 10k then you can make new cars on parity with traditional engines. Obviously there will always be ongoing research but I could just see it being demphasized if that happens.
Either way, I think the main point is we should be talking a matter of "when" and not "if" for mass-market EVs
I'll check it out.
This is Wrightspeed. They make powertrains for trucks. They don't manufacturer vehicles, just install in existing ones. The CEO and founder was actually 1 of the early founders of Tesla but he left the company to do this.
http://www.wrightspeed.com/
Highly recommend the new book on Elon Musk. It's very interesting and well written; Musk is doing great things but he's a workaholic totally obsessed with creating the best at whatever he does and he makes extraordinary demands of the people around him. He not only runs Space-X and Tesla; he also has an interest in Solar City and is now creating the Hyper loop prototype (which seems to be a technology much superior to high-speed rail). Pretty amazing guy -
Highly recommend the new book on Elon Musk. It's very interesting and well written; Musk is doing great things but he's a workaholic totally obsessed with creating the best at whatever he does and he makes extraordinary demands of the people around him. He not only runs Space-X and Tesla; he also has an interest in Solar City and is now creating the Hyper loop prototype (which seems to be a technology much superior to high-speed rail). Pretty amazing guy -
Revenge of the Electric Car is a pretty good doc. Has a lot of access to Musk when the company was in its infancy stages and always 1 bad move away from failing miserably.
It is from 2011 so it is almost a little dated at this point but still a good watch. If you can build a reusable rocket then I'd think you can get battery powered cars done right....
