Tennis play today July 27, 2007 at 3:00pm ET

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one of my top wagers this year:



ATP Umag


David Ferrer 1.80 over Carlos Moya ($3500 to win $2800)

This has been a career battle between the two players with Moya holding a 5-2 lead in the Head-to-Head. However, what is most important to keep in mind here is that Ferrer has won the last two meetings and atfer losing to the KING five straight times, has finally figured out what it takes to beat this guy in the sport they call tennis. I know both wins were on hardcourts but its not about the surface in this case, it's more about the mental aspect of beating a certain player and his style and I have no doubt in my mind that Ferrer is going to repeat those performances and beat him again. Moya does hold the 3-0 advantage in UMAG matches versus each other (cant believe they have faced each other three times here) but keep in mind that Moya is not getting any younger and it has been two years since they have faced each other at this tournament. Ferrer was impressive on all fronts in his opening round wins over Acasuso and Montanes (a lot of people doubted him and paid the price for it) while Moya got to face a slow out of the gates Wawrinka and that ass clown Riba in the last round. Im sorry but facing a guy like Riba most certainly does not prepare Calors for the change in class of opponent. This is the same Carlos Moya that lost against Werner Eschauer last week in Holland. Ferrer on the other hand is still fresh off the heels of winning the clay court tournament in Bastad a few weeks back and although he lost to Verdasco last week in Stuttgart, he was tired and losing after winning a tournament is normal with almost evreryone but Nadal on tour. Ferrer is 16-3 in his last 19 clay court matches with the only losses coming against Verdasco twice and Federer which is very acceptable on both fronts. I don't have a problem backing one of the hottest clay courters around right now and seeing how he came out of the gates and punished his first two opponents, he should have no problems making the old man Moya move around more than any of his two opponents have so far which could be a big factor in this match. Ferrer has exceeded many gamblers expectations over the last few months and that really has to be considered as he goes for his first ever clay court win against Moya. It's tough to go against Moya because he has always been so good against fellow spaniards and he has always been the kind of guy you want to back in big matches like this one. However, as I mentioned before, Ferrer is the man to beat right now when it comes to non Federer or Nadal clay courters and I just don't think Moya has what it takes to beat him this time around. Ferrer's two hardcourt wins over Moya in the last 12 months go a long way when it comes to showing us how far Ferrer has come since the earlier stages of his career and the earlier struggles against certain opponents like Moya. Tennis is often about public perception of some players and how they perform against opponents on specific surfaces. Ferrer is expected to win this match and because he has exceeded expectations over the last little while, I think he gets the job done. I am calling for Ferrer to step in here and kick some ass. Great price and now im rolling to the bank.




:aktion033
 

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I don't see too much value in Ferrer. The line is pretty fair, its tough to say Ferrer should be winning this 60%+ of the time. Moya has won this tourny 3 times so its clear he enjoys this stop. He clubbed Wawrinka and Riba and should be very fresh, Ferrer coming off a tight contest with Acasuso... don't know but it seems like close to a toss up.


Moya's loss to Eschauer isn't that bad, that guy is tearing up the challenger circuit this year.
 

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