TCU vs West Virginia 11/3/2012

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with TCU winning 51% of simulations, and West Virginia 49% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. TCU commits fewer turnovers in 23% of simulations and they go on to win 66% when they take care of the ball. West Virginia wins 58% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Matthew Tucker is averaging 56 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (29% chance) then he helps his team win 62%. Geno Smith is averaging 307 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (42% chance) then he helps his team win 64%.
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