TCU vs Baylor 10/13/2012

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with TCU winning 45% of simulations, and Baylor 55% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. TCU commits fewer turnovers in 27% of simulations and they go on to win 61% when they take care of the ball. Baylor wins 68% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Matthew Tucker is averaging 77 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (33% chance) then he helps his team win 57%. Nick Florence is averaging 305 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (41% chance) then he helps his team win 72%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is BAY -7

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