SOUTH FLORIDA -1 over TCU
The South Florida Bulls go in search of their 22nd straight home victory when they play host to the 18th-ranked TCU Horned Frogs on Friday night in a Conference USA clash from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. The Frogs are a perfect 5-0 on the season, marking their best start since going 7-0 to open the 2000 campaign. The team's most recent outing resulted in a 27-0 whitewashing of visiting Army, running its C-USA mark to 2-0. Despite their unblemished record, the Horned Frogs have performed much better at home than they have on the road, outscoring the opposition by an average of 19 ppg in three home tilts and just three ppg in two road games, one of which required overtime. As for South Florida, it ran its 2003 record to 3-1 with a 31-28 double-overtime triumph over visiting and previously unbeaten Louisville last weekend. After dropping their opener at Alabama, never an easy place to play, the Bulls have won three straight games, two of which have been at home, and are 2-0 in league play.
The Horned Frogs got solid play from both of their quarterbacks in last week's shutout of Army, as Brandon Hassell and Tye Gunn completed 19-of-31 pass attempts for 265 yards and two TDs, both thrown by Hassell. The Horned Frogs used a punishing ground offensive to keep the Black Knights back on their heels. Robert Merrill and Kenny Hayter were the main forces as the Frogs out-yarded Army 447-204, and controlled the tempo of the game from the outset. The Frogs would like to do the same here, but the Bulls are a tad better than Army. The TCU offense has shown balance early on, with the ability to not only run the ball, but also air it out as well. Army found the going extremely rough in last week's outing against TCU, picking up just 204 total yards in remaining winless on the season. The Horned Frogs have registered a staggering 53 TFLs, among them 17 sacks. Forcing turnovers has also been a strength of the TCU defense, as the team has 10 picks and 14 total turnovers.
Despite being outgained, 459-375, the Bulls picked up their first-ever Conference USA home win in a double-overtime thriller last week against Louisville. QB Ronnie Banks had a less-than-stellar day under center, completing 26-of-47 passes for 256 yards with a TD and three INTs. The Bulls are averaging 139 ypg running the football this season, while the pass is responsible for 244 ypg, as Banks is hitting the mark on 53 percent of his throws. The South Florida defense is yielding averages of 21 points and 335 total yards per game this season, but the team is 3-1 and already has a shutout to its credit. The Bulls bent in last week's game, but the made the stops when they had to. The Bulls have collected nine turnovers in their first four games, and foes have found it difficult to reach the end zone via the pass against the South Florida defense, doing so just three times this season.
South Florida will present the most dangerous offensive threat TCU has faced since the Frogs went to Tulane in the season opener. TCU prevailed, but they allowed 35 points, being especially vulnerable to the pass, which is the Bulls offensive weapon of choice. The final score might not indicate it, but TCU must learn some valuable lessons from its 27-0 win over Army. The Horned Frogs had the Black Knights overmatched and outmanned on several fronts, but struggled in the first half and led only 6-0 at halftime. They also failed to make the most of their scoring opportunities, scoring only one touchdown on three trips inside Army's 20-yard line. Additionally, TCU is far from being 100% health-wise. RB Ricky Madison is out for the season with a knee injury and Lonta Hobbs has been sidelined by an ankle injury, so Merrill, a redshirt freshman, has stepped up to produce three consecutive 100-yard games, but they are still depth-wise, which could certainly come into play in the Floridian heat and humidity. Merrill will start and Hobbs should have a few carries as well to test his ankle in a game for the first time in three weeks. He practiced this week with his ankle heavily taped, but he clearly isn't 100 percent, yet. Sophomore starting QB Tye Gunn, who has missed the last three starts after separating his throwing shoulder, will return to the starting lineup. He played sparingly last week and will share the QB duties here as well with Hassell. All of this shuffling of quarterbacks and running backs can't be good for offensive consistency which explains the Frogs slow starts in recent weeks. They don't have the luxury of playing a doormat this week while waiting for the offense to wake up and get in a groove. The defense has been stout and the reason the team is undefeated, but they will get worn out down the stretch if they have to stay on the field for any length of time. Speaking of defense, the stop unit has suffered a major blow as junior weak safety Marvin Godbolt will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury.
South Florida has won 29 of 31 home games and 21 straight for a good reason. Raymond James stadium has been a snakepit for opposing teams and this week doesn't figure to be any different. TCU has never made the journey to Tampa which will only make a win more unlikely. In looking at some spread numbers, the Frogs are just 1-7 ATS off a SU win of 20+ points, 4-9-1 ATS in conference road games, and 1-7 ATS off a SU win vs. teams with losing records. They are also a perfectly awful 0-10 SU/ATS as an underdog of 4 or less points. Meanwhile, the Bulls are 9-1 ATS as a favorite, 8-1 ATS at home, and 7-1 ATS vs. foes off a SU win. South Florida is a perfect 6-0 SU vs. Conference USA teams and should pull out another win here in the biggest home game in the history of the young program.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: SOUTH FLORIDA 28 TCU 24
The South Florida Bulls go in search of their 22nd straight home victory when they play host to the 18th-ranked TCU Horned Frogs on Friday night in a Conference USA clash from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. The Frogs are a perfect 5-0 on the season, marking their best start since going 7-0 to open the 2000 campaign. The team's most recent outing resulted in a 27-0 whitewashing of visiting Army, running its C-USA mark to 2-0. Despite their unblemished record, the Horned Frogs have performed much better at home than they have on the road, outscoring the opposition by an average of 19 ppg in three home tilts and just three ppg in two road games, one of which required overtime. As for South Florida, it ran its 2003 record to 3-1 with a 31-28 double-overtime triumph over visiting and previously unbeaten Louisville last weekend. After dropping their opener at Alabama, never an easy place to play, the Bulls have won three straight games, two of which have been at home, and are 2-0 in league play.
The Horned Frogs got solid play from both of their quarterbacks in last week's shutout of Army, as Brandon Hassell and Tye Gunn completed 19-of-31 pass attempts for 265 yards and two TDs, both thrown by Hassell. The Horned Frogs used a punishing ground offensive to keep the Black Knights back on their heels. Robert Merrill and Kenny Hayter were the main forces as the Frogs out-yarded Army 447-204, and controlled the tempo of the game from the outset. The Frogs would like to do the same here, but the Bulls are a tad better than Army. The TCU offense has shown balance early on, with the ability to not only run the ball, but also air it out as well. Army found the going extremely rough in last week's outing against TCU, picking up just 204 total yards in remaining winless on the season. The Horned Frogs have registered a staggering 53 TFLs, among them 17 sacks. Forcing turnovers has also been a strength of the TCU defense, as the team has 10 picks and 14 total turnovers.
Despite being outgained, 459-375, the Bulls picked up their first-ever Conference USA home win in a double-overtime thriller last week against Louisville. QB Ronnie Banks had a less-than-stellar day under center, completing 26-of-47 passes for 256 yards with a TD and three INTs. The Bulls are averaging 139 ypg running the football this season, while the pass is responsible for 244 ypg, as Banks is hitting the mark on 53 percent of his throws. The South Florida defense is yielding averages of 21 points and 335 total yards per game this season, but the team is 3-1 and already has a shutout to its credit. The Bulls bent in last week's game, but the made the stops when they had to. The Bulls have collected nine turnovers in their first four games, and foes have found it difficult to reach the end zone via the pass against the South Florida defense, doing so just three times this season.
South Florida will present the most dangerous offensive threat TCU has faced since the Frogs went to Tulane in the season opener. TCU prevailed, but they allowed 35 points, being especially vulnerable to the pass, which is the Bulls offensive weapon of choice. The final score might not indicate it, but TCU must learn some valuable lessons from its 27-0 win over Army. The Horned Frogs had the Black Knights overmatched and outmanned on several fronts, but struggled in the first half and led only 6-0 at halftime. They also failed to make the most of their scoring opportunities, scoring only one touchdown on three trips inside Army's 20-yard line. Additionally, TCU is far from being 100% health-wise. RB Ricky Madison is out for the season with a knee injury and Lonta Hobbs has been sidelined by an ankle injury, so Merrill, a redshirt freshman, has stepped up to produce three consecutive 100-yard games, but they are still depth-wise, which could certainly come into play in the Floridian heat and humidity. Merrill will start and Hobbs should have a few carries as well to test his ankle in a game for the first time in three weeks. He practiced this week with his ankle heavily taped, but he clearly isn't 100 percent, yet. Sophomore starting QB Tye Gunn, who has missed the last three starts after separating his throwing shoulder, will return to the starting lineup. He played sparingly last week and will share the QB duties here as well with Hassell. All of this shuffling of quarterbacks and running backs can't be good for offensive consistency which explains the Frogs slow starts in recent weeks. They don't have the luxury of playing a doormat this week while waiting for the offense to wake up and get in a groove. The defense has been stout and the reason the team is undefeated, but they will get worn out down the stretch if they have to stay on the field for any length of time. Speaking of defense, the stop unit has suffered a major blow as junior weak safety Marvin Godbolt will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury.
South Florida has won 29 of 31 home games and 21 straight for a good reason. Raymond James stadium has been a snakepit for opposing teams and this week doesn't figure to be any different. TCU has never made the journey to Tampa which will only make a win more unlikely. In looking at some spread numbers, the Frogs are just 1-7 ATS off a SU win of 20+ points, 4-9-1 ATS in conference road games, and 1-7 ATS off a SU win vs. teams with losing records. They are also a perfectly awful 0-10 SU/ATS as an underdog of 4 or less points. Meanwhile, the Bulls are 9-1 ATS as a favorite, 8-1 ATS at home, and 7-1 ATS vs. foes off a SU win. South Florida is a perfect 6-0 SU vs. Conference USA teams and should pull out another win here in the biggest home game in the history of the young program.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: SOUTH FLORIDA 28 TCU 24
