Taking a Shot with Super Bowl 50 ...... Articles .... discussion .... and My Picks

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We all kind of know this ... But will remind people..

EARLY line Opened Carolina -3.5, quickly went to -4, then within a few hours went to -4.5

By last Wednesday/ Thursday it was already up to 5's and 5.5's at most shops
Hit -6 on the 29th ... and there was some buy-backs that moved it back to 5.5 ( for a middle )

Currently standing at 5.5 at about 95% of Books, with a few 6's

As per SportsOptions, there is Currently 75% ( Public ) on the Panthers
This is a Combo of different Books

"Sharp" Money is on both, Carolina -3.5, and Denver +6

Just about Everyone and their Mother's are on the Panthers .... usually a BAD thing ... but sometimes the Public does WIN.
Good summary of the line movement and where bettors are. I think the line settles here until possibly late Saturday night or Sunday morning, when we could see another move.
 

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Haven't last 4 Super Bowls gone to the dog side?
 
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Haven't last 4 Super Bowls gone to the dog side?
Yes. In the early years of the NFL the favorite covered 5 times in a row. Underdogs havent covered more than 4 years in a row ever. Not that it means anything because there could be a bunch of reasons I havent looked at. The last 4 years the majority was on the favorites as is the case this year.
 

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I don't think the Pats closed as dogs last year

just looked it up, it was a P

FWIW, doesn't mean anything to me
 

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Lots of good info here, so thank you.

Maybe with this likely being Peyton's last game he will play loose and not shit the bed in a big game like he has done quite often throughout his college and NFL career.
 
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Good summary of the line movement and where bettors are. I think the line settles here until possibly late Saturday night or Sunday morning, when we could see another move.

Just a small Line update, and will post a couple more articles if I see anything worth wild.
I have now read 67 1/2 articles ... TRUE ! ( the 1/2 is because it was so boring, I had to stop )

Anyway, Today Denver money came in at almost All ships ... lines that were 5.5, went to 4.5 ( even saw a 4, but didn't last )
The most noticed move was at Pinny, currently at -4.4 -08

Still a couple of 6's out there, but they are rare ( currently )

I believe some of that money are Buybacks ... so you really need to see what happens overnight, and around 10AM Eastern
 
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Just a small Line update, and will post a couple more articles if I see anything worth wild.
I have now read 67 1/2 articles ... TRUE ! ( the 1/2 is because it was so boring, I had to stop )

Anyway, Today Denver money came in at almost All ships ... lines that were 5.5, went to 4.5 ( even saw a 4, but didn't last )
The most noticed move was at Pinny, currently at -4.4 -08

Still a couple of 6's out there, but they are rare ( currently )

I believe some of that money are Buybacks ... so you really need to see what happens overnight, and around 10AM Eastern

[h=1]Flurry of Broncos bets evens out action on Super Bowl 50 teams[/h]
The early betting action on Super Bowl 50 in Las Vegas was lopsided toward the favored Carolina Panthers.


That is changing. So much money has been showing up on the Denver Broncos recently that some sportsbooks are beginning to wonder if they'll be rooting for the Panthers come Sunday.


On Saturday, the Panthers were consensus 5.5-point favorites. They had opened as low as 3.5 favorites and attracted the bulk of the early money -- as much as 90 percent at some Nevada sportsbooks.


But a midweek flurry of big bets on Denver from respected players, followed by weekend money on the underdog Broncos, evened out the action.

Sportsbook operator CG Technology reported "steady Denver money" on Saturday, including a six-figure bet on the Broncos. To begin the week, 86 percent of the money bet on the Super Bowl spread was on the Panthers at CG Technology. As of Saturday afternoon, that was down to 54 percent.


"Money coming in now pretty good on Denver, both side and money line," Tony Miller, sportsbook director at the Golden Nugget, said Saturday. "We're closing the gap with each hour. But still a long way to go."


The Westgate SuperBook, Station Casinos, Caesars and Boyd Gaming sportsbooks also said the money gap between the two teams was narrowing. Still, Station Casinos vice president of race and sports Art Manteris said he thought it was "very unlikely" his book would end up rooting for Carolina on Sunday.


For more than a week, the books were left searching for Denver money while support poured in on Carolina. It arrived Wednesday, when a rush of big bets on the Broncos at plus-6 showed up at sportsbooks from Las Vegas to Reno. Reports coming out of Vegas suggested megapro Billy Walters was behind the Denver money.


The MGM said the money bet Saturday was trending 2-1 in favor of Denver, but overall there was still more money on the Panthers, in part due to some big early bets.


On the Monday after the AFC and NFC championship games, the MGM received two inquiries from guests wanting to bet seven figures on the Super Bowl. Both patrons took Carolina, albeit for wagers "not quite as strong" as $1 million, MGM vice president of race and sports Jay Rood said.


"We might not take one that big this year," said Rood, who took a $1 million bet on the New England Patriots in last year's Super Bowl against the Seattle Seahawks.


In 2014, an all-time high of $119.4 million was bet on the Super Bowl between the Broncos and Seahawks. Even if a $1 million Super Bowl wager doesn't show up, iconic Vegas bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro, now with the South Point sportsbook, said he'd be stunned if another record amount was not wagered on Sunday's showdown.


"Put it this way: There's never less people asking what to do or how to bet," Vaccaro said in reference to the number of new bettors who show up for the Super Bowl. "There's always more people. That's a sign, to me, that is going to keep guys like me off the street."


The over/under total for the game could be found as low as 44.5, with some books sitting at 45 and 45.5.


The over/under on how long it takes Lady Gaga to sing the national anthem was sitting at around 2 minutes, 20 seconds at offshore sportsbooks.
 
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Jeff Ma ....... always good to hear what he has to say

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Enjoy the game and best of luck BAS ! I love the reads about the books and guys like Jimmy Vaccaro etc.
 

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BAS.........appreciate all the time, effort and thoughts you've provided this past season..........BOL with all your action tomorrow...........indy
 
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Enjoy the game and best of luck BAS ! I love the reads about the books and guys like Jimmy Vaccaro etc.


BOL ! Boss ..

I already made a small wager on the Under ... But will have my picks up in a couple of hours
 

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Looks like 5.5 is the consensus spread as of now. I doubt it changes much. Interesting that with all the Denver money coming in late that the line is sitting here.
 
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Looks like 5.5 is the consensus spread as of now. I doubt it changes much. Interesting that with all the Denver money coming in late that the line is sitting here.

When it comes to numbers, it really doesn't matter 4.5 vs. 5.5, or 5 vs. 5.5 IMHO

We all know that the public doesn't move the line ... but think of all the people in town, in Vegas... betting $5,$10, $20, $50, $100 or a couple of 100 on the Super Bowl because they happen to be in Las Vegas. Even the people that don't know difference between a baseball and a Football will throw something on the game.

or vegas is looking for more Denver money ???

Just watch the board and see what happens, it will tell the story where the real money is... I don't think it's Finished

BOL !
 

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I know that Vegas is glad this number is nowhere near 3. They can play with the numbers between 4 and 6 without much of a consequence. And I will watch the board in the last few hours before kickoff. Always fascinated by late movement before such a game with a huge take like this.
 
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I know that Vegas is glad this number is nowhere near 3. They can play with the numbers between 4 and 6 without much of a consequence. And I will watch the board in the last few hours before kickoff. Always fascinated by late movement before such a game with a huge take like this.

So as we approach 2 1/2 hour out to Kickoff, we see that Denver is now taking more money Offshore. Pinny, 5Dimes and betPhnx all have gone to 4.5, pinny at -04
along with a couple of ours.
Mostly 5's now ... but if you like the Broncos, you can still find a couple 5.5's
 
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So i wanted to write this whole huge write-up, but didn't want to sound all long winded. lol

This game has all the makings of a possible Blow-out ... You read all these media stories, look at the headlines ( aka, Oldman vs. Superman ) Peyton's last game ( probably )
people want him to go out on a bang ! aka Win, as it would make a nice story.

But you really can't look at it that way.....

I look at it as a Match up of 2 Great Defenses .... a Future HOF vs, a Young Stud ... maybe his future will wind up in the HOF himself ? But right now Manning is the sure fire HOF'er
and even though he is no where near what he was in his Prime, he is still the Top QB that can run a team, manage a offense . I think he knows that he isn't the Peyton from the past...
But I do think he can do the little things.

On the other side of the ball you have Cam Newton .. probably the best QB that can use the Run Option. Big difference when he stands behind center, and when he is in the Shotgun.
and the Broncos will use a "Spy" in Miller and Ware.
I think this will work 50-60% of the time, but we all know that Cam will get his.

There are a lot of good match-ups with these two teams and all eyes will be with Norman vs. Thomas ...
Those that remember when Denver got their balls handed to them against the Seahawks a couple of years back, might remember that the Only bright spot for Denver wads Thomas vs. the #1 secondary. Thomas actually had 118 yards that day on 13 Rec.

Instead of going through each match-up, as I would love to do.... Here's the bottom line.

The team to get the most Turnovers wins the game. It won't be Manning's Arm to Win for Denver, it will be the Defense !
It won't be Cam's Arm either, it will be his legs...
Both Teams have Great Defenses , Broncos has a better one.
Think everyone would agree with this ... it's not a secret.

I'm going with experience Here Today .... Going with a few Guys that have been here before. Going with a Guy that can manage the team, keep the other team a little off balanced.

AND don't be Shocked if you see a couple of Trick Plays on the Denver side.... Aka Osweiler used at some point, somewhere..

Denver + 5.5 ( also got them +6 earlier in the week )

BOL ! to ALL
 

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you might as well bet on St John's Mikey, your chances would be vastly improved

:)
 

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With you on denver +6 but i doubled on the m/l +175. Let 's do it $
 

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