Updated record
| 2014 Summary | ||
| Units | Record | |
| Week 1 | 0.90 | 20-17 |
| Week 2 | 3.38 | 24-18 |
| Week 3 | 9.49 | 28-16 |
| Week 4 | -5.99 | 26-27 |
| Week 5 | 0.93 | 22-17 |
| Week 6 | 0.05 | 24-23 |
| Week 7 | 2.16 | 24-19 |
| Week 8 | 4.65 | 22-15 |
| Week 9 | ||
| Week 10 | ||
| Week 11 | ||
| Week 12 | ||
| Week 13 | ||
| Week 14 | ||
| Week 15 | ||
| Week 16 | ||
| Week 17 | ||
| Regular Season | 15.57 | 190-152 |
| Wild Card | ||
| Divisional | ||
| Conference | ||
| Super Bowl | ||
| Playoffs | 0.00 | |
| 2014 Futures | 4.49 | 9-4 |
| 2014 Total | 20.06 | 199-156 |
Updated 5 yr trends along with updated units.. Units for each type of play are on the far right
| 5 Year Trend Avg | 5 Year Win % per bet AVG | RB | ||||||||
| RB | RB | Bet | Unit | |||||||
| Under | Over | % under | W | L | % | Rush Under | 1.9 | 1.4 | ||
| Rushing | Rushing Over | Rush Over | 0.7 | 0.8 | ||||||
| 134 | 79 | 63% | 41 | 43 | 49% | Rush+Rec Over | 0.8 | 0.9 | ||
| Rush+Rec | Rushing Under | Rush+Rec Under | 1.1 | 1.1 | ||||||
| 19 | 15 | 56% | 89 | 39 | 70% | Receptions Over | 0.8 | 0.9 | ||
| Receptions | Receptions Over | Receptions Under | 1.7 | 1.4 | ||||||
| 38 | 26 | 59% | 25 | 29 | 46% | Receiving Over | 0.5 | 0.8 | ||
| Receiving | Receptions under | Receiving Under | 1.2 | 1.1 | ||||||
| 8 | 5 | 62% | 8 | 1 | 89% | WR | ||||
| WR | Receiving Over | Bet | Unit | |||||||
| Receiving | 0 | 2 | 0% | Receptions Over | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||||
| 94 | 96 | 49% | Receiving under | Receptions Under | 1.2 | 1.1 | ||||
| Receptions | 4 | 5 | 44% | Receiving Over | 1.1 | 1.0 | ||||
| 233 | 213 | 52% | Rush+Rec Over | Receiving Under | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||||
| QB | 5 | 7 | 42% | QB | ||||||
| Passing | Rush+Rec Under | Bet | Unit | |||||||
| 81 | 92 | 47% | 12 | 12 | 50% | Passing Over | 1.3 | 1.1 | ||
| Completions | WR | Passing Under | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||||||
| 120 | 101 | 54% | W | L | % | Completion Over | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||
| Rushing | Receptions Over | Completion Under | 1.4 | 1.2 | ||||||
| 7 | 7 | 50% | 170 | 155 | 52% | Rushing Over | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||
| TE | Receptions under | Rushing Under | 1.1 | 1.0 | ||||||
| Receiving | 75 | 47 | 61% | TE | ||||||
| 40 | 19 | 68% | Receiving Over | Bet | Unit | |||||
| Receptions | 51 | 45 | 53% | Receptions Over | 1.1 | 1.0 | ||||
| 68 | 64 | 52% | Receiving Under | Receptions Under | 1.3 | 1.1 | ||||
| 50 | 49 | 51% | Receiving Over | 0.5 | 0.7 | |||||
| QB | Receiving Under | 2.1 | 1.5 | |||||||
| W | L | % | ||||||||
| Passing over | ||||||||||
| 32 | 17 | 65% | ||||||||
| Passing under | ||||||||||
| 64 | 59 | 52% | ||||||||
| Completions over | ||||||||||
| 64 | 38 | 63% | ||||||||
| Completions under | ||||||||||
| 81 | 38 | 68% | ||||||||
| Rushing over | ||||||||||
| 2 | 2 | 50% | ||||||||
| Rushing under | ||||||||||
| 5 | 4 | 56% | ||||||||
| TE | ||||||||||
| W | L | % | ||||||||
| Receiving Over | ||||||||||
| 5 | 11 | 31% | ||||||||
| Receiving Under | ||||||||||
| 29 | 14 | 67% | ||||||||
| Receptions Over | ||||||||||
| 52 | 41 | 56% | ||||||||
| Receptions under | ||||||||||
| 30 | 14 | 68% |
ag h
olsen over 5 -140
In the secondary, teams have found the most success targeting the slot. Kenny Vacarro was struggling to defend the slot all season and in the bye week Rob Ryan made the move to use safety Marcus Ball in the slot instead. Ball predictably struggled (-2.3) and allowed Randall Cobb to catch all four targets against him for 56 yards. The Panthers will flex Greg Olsen out into the slot and he should feast on this plus matchup.
olsen over 5 -140
In the secondary, teams have found the most success targeting the slot. Kenny Vacarro was struggling to defend the slot all season and in the bye week Rob Ryan made the move to use safety Marcus Ball in the slot instead. Ball predictably struggled (-2.3) and allowed Randall Cobb to catch all four targets against him for 56 yards. The Panthers will flex Greg Olsen out into the slot and he should feast on this plus matchup.
From insider
Kelvin Benjamin receiving yards: 69.5 (O/U minus-110)
Benjamin has had at least 70 yards in four of his eight games this season, including last week against the Seahawks. But looking at the Saints' defense gives some insight as to why this is a minus-110 bet. The top wide receiver on the team facing the Saints has hit at least 70 yards in five of the seven games this season, as you can see from the inline on the right.
Saints Pass Defense vs Top WRs Week Opp No. 1 WR Over 69.5? 1 ATL Julio Jones Yes 2 CLE Andrew Hawkins Yes 3 MIN Greg Jennings Yes 4 DAL Dez Bryant No 5 TB Vincent Jackson Yes 7 DET Golden Tate Yes 8 GB Jordy Nelson No
What about the two that didn't? In Week 4, Dez Bryant was held to three catches on six targets for 44 yards, while Tony Romo was 11-of-12 for 138 yards targeting Terrance Williams and Jason Witten. In Week 8, Jordy Nelson was held to three catches on four targets for 25 yards, while Aaron Rodgers was 20-of-25 for 324 yards targetingRandall Cobb, Eddie Lacy and Davante Adams (all of whom would have hit the over).
Newton has relied on Greg Olsen this year (509 receiving yards, third among NFL tight ends), but outside of Olsen, no Panther poses a threat to eat into Benjamin's yards the way Williams (20 percent of the Cowboys' receiving yards this season) or Cobb (27 percent of the Packers') did to Bryant and Nelson. Given the struggles of the Saints' pass defense on the road (296.8 yards per game, 28th in NFL), the over seems like a solid play.
The play: Over.
Will Mark Ingram score a touchdown? (Yes: Even, No: minus-120)
The Saints have been effective running the ball this season -- one of only two teams averaging above 5.0 yards per rush -- and a top-three team in yards before contact per rush and first-down percentage on rushing plays. New Orleans is the only team in the league with two qualified running backs that rank in the top 10 in yards per rush this season -- Ingram (first) and Khiry Robinson (fifth). It's not just empty yards, either. Only two teams have more rushing touchdowns (nine) than the Saints, including seven in the red zone (tied for fifth most).
Saints RB/FB Red Zone RushesWith Mark Ingram Active
Player Rushes TD Mark Ingram 10 3 Pierre Thomas* 3 0 Khiry Robinson* 3 1 Erik Lorig 2 0 Austin Johnson 1 0 *Expected to be inactive Thursday night
If the Saints want to run the ball, the yards will be there. The Panthers are allowing 5.2 yards per rush this season, almost a half-yard more than any other defense in the league (the Cleveland Browns are second, at 4.8). Carolina's rush defense is perilously close to allowing the highest yards per rush of any team since the merger (that honor belongs to the 2013 Chicago Bears, at 5.4).
Only the Falcons (13) and Bengals (eight) have allowed more red zone rushing touchdowns than the Panthers (seven) this season. The only question left is whether or not it will be Ingram getting red zone touches for the Saints. BothPierre Thomas and Robinson are expected to miss Thursday's game. Throw in better odds for "yes" than "no," and all signs point to taking the positive side of this one.
The play: Yes.
Kelvin Benjamin receiving yards: 69.5 (O/U minus-110)
Benjamin has had at least 70 yards in four of his eight games this season, including last week against the Seahawks. But looking at the Saints' defense gives some insight as to why this is a minus-110 bet. The top wide receiver on the team facing the Saints has hit at least 70 yards in five of the seven games this season, as you can see from the inline on the right.
Saints Pass Defense vs Top WRs Week Opp No. 1 WR Over 69.5? 1 ATL Julio Jones Yes 2 CLE Andrew Hawkins Yes 3 MIN Greg Jennings Yes 4 DAL Dez Bryant No 5 TB Vincent Jackson Yes 7 DET Golden Tate Yes 8 GB Jordy Nelson No
What about the two that didn't? In Week 4, Dez Bryant was held to three catches on six targets for 44 yards, while Tony Romo was 11-of-12 for 138 yards targeting Terrance Williams and Jason Witten. In Week 8, Jordy Nelson was held to three catches on four targets for 25 yards, while Aaron Rodgers was 20-of-25 for 324 yards targetingRandall Cobb, Eddie Lacy and Davante Adams (all of whom would have hit the over).
Newton has relied on Greg Olsen this year (509 receiving yards, third among NFL tight ends), but outside of Olsen, no Panther poses a threat to eat into Benjamin's yards the way Williams (20 percent of the Cowboys' receiving yards this season) or Cobb (27 percent of the Packers') did to Bryant and Nelson. Given the struggles of the Saints' pass defense on the road (296.8 yards per game, 28th in NFL), the over seems like a solid play.
The play: Over.
Will Mark Ingram score a touchdown? (Yes: Even, No: minus-120)
The Saints have been effective running the ball this season -- one of only two teams averaging above 5.0 yards per rush -- and a top-three team in yards before contact per rush and first-down percentage on rushing plays. New Orleans is the only team in the league with two qualified running backs that rank in the top 10 in yards per rush this season -- Ingram (first) and Khiry Robinson (fifth). It's not just empty yards, either. Only two teams have more rushing touchdowns (nine) than the Saints, including seven in the red zone (tied for fifth most).
Saints RB/FB Red Zone RushesWith Mark Ingram Active
Player Rushes TD Mark Ingram 10 3 Pierre Thomas* 3 0 Khiry Robinson* 3 1 Erik Lorig 2 0 Austin Johnson 1 0 *Expected to be inactive Thursday night
If the Saints want to run the ball, the yards will be there. The Panthers are allowing 5.2 yards per rush this season, almost a half-yard more than any other defense in the league (the Cleveland Browns are second, at 4.8). Carolina's rush defense is perilously close to allowing the highest yards per rush of any team since the merger (that honor belongs to the 2013 Chicago Bears, at 5.4).
Only the Falcons (13) and Bengals (eight) have allowed more red zone rushing touchdowns than the Panthers (seven) this season. The only question left is whether or not it will be Ingram getting red zone touches for the Saints. BothPierre Thomas and Robinson are expected to miss Thursday's game. Throw in better odds for "yes" than "no," and all signs point to taking the positive side of this one.
The play: Yes.
1:00 games
SD vs MIA
Rivers under 270.5 -115
M. Floyd under 3.5 -140
CIN vs JAX
Gresham under 3 -115
Gresham under 30.5 -115
D. Robinson under 69.5 -115
TB vs CLE
V. Jackson over 4 (E)
WAS vs MIN
Reed under 50.5 -115
McKinnnon under 77.5 -115
RGIII under 240.5 -115
PHI vs HOU
Hopkins over 4.5 -140
Fitzpatrick under 20.5 -125
NYJ vs KC
A. Smith under 21.5 -115
ARZ vs DAL
Fitzgerald under 62.5 -115
SD vs MIA
Rivers under 270.5 -115
M. Floyd under 3.5 -140
CIN vs JAX
Gresham under 3 -115
Gresham under 30.5 -115
D. Robinson under 69.5 -115
TB vs CLE
V. Jackson over 4 (E)
WAS vs MIN
Reed under 50.5 -115
McKinnnon under 77.5 -115
RGIII under 240.5 -115
PHI vs HOU
Hopkins over 4.5 -140
Fitzpatrick under 20.5 -125
NYJ vs KC
A. Smith under 21.5 -115
ARZ vs DAL
Fitzgerald under 62.5 -115
STL vs SF
A. Davis under 242.5 -115
Bolden over 4 -115
Gore under 69.5 -105
Cook over 32.5 -115
DEN vs NE - It seems this never works out when I go over on one WR and under on the other for same team, but I will not be deterred!
Welker over 3.5 -115
Hillman over 88.5 rush.rec -115
LaFell under 64.5 -115
LaFell under 5 -115
Edelman over 4.5 -115
Edelman over 52.5 -115
Vereen over 3.5 -150
Ju. Thomas over 4 -135
A. Davis under 242.5 -115
Bolden over 4 -115
Gore under 69.5 -105
Cook over 32.5 -115
DEN vs NE - It seems this never works out when I go over on one WR and under on the other for same team, but I will not be deterred!
Welker over 3.5 -115
Hillman over 88.5 rush.rec -115
LaFell under 64.5 -115
LaFell under 5 -115
Edelman over 4.5 -115
Edelman over 52.5 -115
Vereen over 3.5 -150
Ju. Thomas over 4 -135
