Surprising teams & regressions - some thoughts on the 2015 season

[sdf]

Good writeup. Agree with much of it.

I have never been a fan of Bradford so perhaps the Rams can improve and make the playoffs. I'm not yet convinced they are "there" yet.
Guess I need to keep my eye on them now.

I will always have a hard time believing the Pats will not make the playoffs. I suspect Brady will not get suspended 4 games and they will still make a run at another deep playoff run. They have a tougher road to climb than last season but they are still a terrific team.

Thanks for posting

 

[sdf]

Interesting point about the Eagles,...may cause me to not pull the trigger on them, and Bradford is a HUGE question mark. I got the impression that he didn't like football too much in his time with the Rams and he attracted his knee injuries as a way of getting out of playing.

Moneycrow, I think you're right about KC, if they can figure out how to get the ball to a wide receiver in the end zone, I think they take the division.

I cant imagine ANY player wanting a knee injury. I just think their OL wasnt very good, their running game was weak and Bradford just isnt a very good QB and injury prone. Perhaps the system in Philly will be better for him.....

 

[minmaster1]

you can keep the miami dolphins... pats division to lose buffalo team make a run in that division

 

[suuma]

Enjoyed reading your post.
NFL can not get here soon enough

Im with you in regards to the Dolphins
Progression is a word I like to use to describe Tannehill
year after year he gets better.

In addition, I think Kansas City dethrones Denver this year.
Im a believer in Andy Reid.

I would like to go with the Chargers as I believe they are the most improved team in the division. I think their battle will be decided within the head-to-head games against the Chiefs. In game one last season, the Chargers weren't able to penetrate the Chiefs' biggest weakness - their run defense - to set up some space for throws. In game two, they were able to penetrate but suffered from their weak o-line play - 7 sacks for a loss of 42 yards. Rivers threw two INT.
Chargers upgraded both, o-line and running game. They also added a solid slot receiver in Stevie Johnson. Their secondary is underrated - Jason Verrett, Brandon Flowers and Eric Weddle are a very good trio. Verrett showed some very good shutdown approaches when healthy. I also like that Manti Te'o is finally healthy and their 2nd round draft pick ILB Denzel Perryman is a good guy. Their LBs should look refreshed.

The Chiefs still have a questionable o-line and they will likely start a rookie CB opposite to Sean Smith. That's not really a problem, but the big problem is that Sean Smith is suspended the first three games and nobody knows when Eric Berry will be back. So Marcus Peters and Phillip Gaines are probably going to start at CB in the first three games without strong confidence for their Safeties. To start the season, they have a road game at Houston and two games against the Bengals and Packers, two vertically-challenging teams. Missing Smith and Berry in those games isn't good for the Chiefs. According to PFF, Sean Smith had the 3rd best coverage grade among all CBs in 2014. My current lean for week one is also on the Texans, because that Chiefs o-line won't be able at all to negate the pass rush by the Texans, who also have a very good secondary. In the second head-to-head game in 2014, with Eric Berry sidelined, Rivers was able to hit some deep passes and exploited the weakness the absence of Berry revealed.

In their first matchup in 2015, Chargers come off a bye week in a primetime home game while the Chiefs play the Broncos the week before. That's gonna be a tough spot for the Chiefs. All in all, I think the Chargers have better chances to win the division than the Chiefs, because there is a chance the Chiefs are going to start 0-3 and I would give the Chargers the edge on head-to-head and would bet they won't give up 2 games to the C.

 

[suuma]

Good writeup. Agree with much of it.

I have never been a fan of Bradford so perhaps the Rams can improve and make the playoffs. I'm not yet convinced they are "there" yet.
Guess I need to keep my eye on them now.

I will always have a hard time believing the Pats will not make the playoffs. I suspect Brady will not get suspended 4 games and they will still make a run at another deep playoff run. They have a tougher road to climb than last season but they are still a terrific team.

Thanks for posting

Thanks, sdf. I guess that many people will have a hard time believing the Pats won't make the playoffs. I am not saying they don't have a shot, but the signs are there. The Patriots had the WORST pass-blocking last season. Tom Brady played the quick-release perfectly, but the point is, that he HAD TO play it perfectly, because the o-line was one injury away from a desaster and he can't throw the deep ball anymore. Next year he faces a nightmare pass rush in 8 games: Jets, Dolphins, Bills all twice, Cowboys with Hardy back and Texans with Clowney and Watt. The Eagles also have a decent pass rush. On top of that, those teams from the AFC East also have a very good coverage. Another reason is that Brady didn't necessarily need to outscore teams last season, because his defense did a very good job. The Patriots-offense had the 2nd-best starting field position of all teams. Revis, Brandon Browner and Kyle Arrington, who shut down T.Y. Hilton in both games, are all gone. Teams will be able to score against the Patriots, that puts their offense in many different positions.

 

[Huego]

I strongly disagree regarding the Falcons. They may contend for the division since its the worse in the league, but they will not be a good team. What have they done to improve their defense? Using high draft picks on defense is a good start...but who knows how they will perform in the first year. You can't expect rookies to come in and impact the game right away. And what did they do to address their weak offensive line and defensive lines? Not much unless I missed something.

I like their new coach and Matt Ryan is good. But they have no run game due to weak oline and no pass rush. They'll win some games at home but I'll be looking to fade them when they play on grass.

 

[suuma]

I strongly disagree regarding the Falcons. They may contend for the division since its the worse in the league, but they will not be a good team. What have they done to improve their defense? Using high draft picks on defense is a good start...but who knows how they will perform in the first year. You can't expect rookies to come in and impact the game right away. And what did they do to address their weak offensive line and defensive lines? Not much unless I missed something.

I like their new coach and Matt Ryan is good. But they have no run game due to weak oline and no pass rush. They'll win some games at home but I'll be looking to fade them when they play on grass.

Thanks for your comment.

Defense & defensive line: They hired Dan Quinn, the defensive mastermind from Seattle, as their head coach. To pair him with DC Richard Smith who did an incredible job for the Broncos the last couple years, is good for the Falcons. On defense they already had CB Desmond Trufant, who was incredible in his first two years. PFF had him as a top-10 CB in each of his first two years. Jalen Collins is good, but he will need time to develop, but he will also have a few good games. They added LB Justin Durant who had a really good year for the Cowboys when he was healthy and Vic Beasley from the best College defense, one heck of a pass rusher. On their d-line they already have DT Ra'Shede Hageman, a really good 2nd-round pick in 2014, who suffered from a bad coordinated defense and they added DT Grady Jarrett from again, the best College defense in Clemson. Jarrett has NFL athleticism. They also got DE Adrian Clayborn from the Buccs, a former first-round pick in 2011, who was a really good edge defender when healthy. This defensive line and the pass rush overall looks pretty solid, but here is the deciding factor: Dan Quinn is the head coach. Quinn is a natural defensive line coach and he did this job for about 20 years. Remember the 2013 Seahawks defensive line? If not, please watch some tape. The Seahawks had an average or below-average d-line in 2011 & 2012. Quinn then took over as the DC. The Seahawks had the BEST pass rush grade in 2013, and it wasn't even close to the 2nd team, the Rams. They were miles ahead of everyone. Their pass rush was a big reason they were so dominant on defense that year. Did the Seahawks have so much quality on their d-line on paper? Not really. DE: Chris Clemons & Michaell Bennett: undrafted / Cliff Avril: 3rd rounder --- DT: Red Bryant: 4th rounder, Brandon Mebane: 3rd rounder --- and so on..
Dan Quinn transformed this d-line and the pass rush as a whole into a FORCE. In 2014 they couldn't keep the group together and had a few injuries, so that their pass rush was a joke in the playoffs. Expect the same approach to take over at Atlanta. I am not saying they will have the best pass rush in the league, but their pass rush will be much improved, just because Dan Quinn is the head coach and their additions really fit in the system. Their secondary will benefit from an improved pass rush.

Offensive line: Well, their pass block wasn't really that bad. It was above average. Their run block is terrible but since you need a lethal passing offense to be successful, it doesn't make that much of an impact. Their run block was bad over the last few years, as well in 2012 and they went 13-3 that year. Tevin Coleman will help getting better on short downs. Matt Bryant is a good QB and his receiving staff is good. They get C Joe Hayley back who missed whole 2014 due to an injury, but other than that, they didn't upgrade the o-line. Maybe they can grab one of the current free agents Jake Long or Evan Mathis. Jake Long is actually working out for the Falcons. He had two ACL tears but when healthy, he is definitely an upgrade.

 

[Huego]

thanks for the reply. I agree Dan Quinn should make a huge difference on the team, Mike Smith was terrible. Good Luck.

 

[RangeRover]

The Dolphs are good, but they had better be great with their schedule. Only 3 of their 1st 11 games are at home.

If they're the real deal, they should start out at the worst, 5-1. They have a tough 2nd half schedule but fortunately a lot of them are at home.


I grabbed them at 5-1 to win the division on the day Brady got suspended. Glad to see it upheld.

 

[suuma]

If they're the real deal, they should start out at the worst, 5-1. They have a tough 2nd half schedule but fortunately a lot of them are at home.


I grabbed them at 5-1 to win the division on the day Brady got suspended. Glad to see it upheld.

I really see the Dolphins winning the division. They are stacked on both sides of the ball and they are the best overall team in the AFC East IMO.

 

[cloverleaf]

One team I like that not many others are high on is the Eagles. I think their defense is improved,....I'd like to think that their secondary will be better this year with new players/coaches there and that their offensive system will put points on the board regardless of who plays qb. I always keep in mind that Kelly has made Sanchez look like a reasonable NFL quarterback, something that I never thought could/would happen. They got rid of some loser mentality players and have in some cases, opted for integrity over talent. I love how they are better conditioned than their opponents and how great Kelly's team have historically played on the road. I am considering betting them either over RSW or to win their division. I'm in the minority there as I haven't seen many positive predictions from preseason pundits...that's how I like it. Their season win total now is at + money, so I am considering.

There have been nine teams who have replaced their starting QB, starting RB and starting WR. Of those nine, only one had
a winning season the next year. Philly has won 10 games each of the past two seasons...past history says the Eagles are in for
a difficult year during 2015.

 

[cloverleaf]

NY Jets should improve on their 4-12 record last year. That defense will keep them in a lot of games
despite not having much on the offensive side of the ball. Ten of the starters on defense are former
first round draft choices. CBs Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie will cause problems for opposing
quarterbacks. Good corners are worth their weight in gold in the NFL.

 

[BleedingPurple]

just a quick note on the Vikes o line. they also had their best lineman Fusco go out for almost the entire year and they bring him back and move him to left guard to help out with Khalil at tackle. Also, RT Loadholt missed last 5 games and he may not be the best in pass protection but he's a run grater

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

One of best Theory's that use is the ''Up-Down Theory''suggests that teams that played poorly one week should be due for a regression the next, while a team that played above itself will come back down to earth. However, the market usually corrects the other way, assuming that a team that played poorly is a “bad team” and will be equally bad or even worse the next week while a team that won will continue to play well or improve. When a team coming off a statistically anomalous “bad” game goes up against a team that played over its head the week prior, then you have a classic Up-Down situation.

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For example, in Week 1 of the 2013 regular season Philadelphia blitzed Washington in a marquee road win. That same night San Diego played horribly in the second half while collapsing in a loss to Houston. The two teams played the following Sunday. And a spread that probably should’ve been 3.5 was inflated up to 7.5 because the assumption was that Philadelphia was trending up and San Diego was trending down. It was just the opposite. The Chargers bounced back (Up) while the Eagles slid back to reality (Down), and the result was an outright upset win for San Diego. Road favorite's are rarely a strong play for NFL bettors. But there are some teams that simply should never be favored when they play away from home. You never want to lay points on the road with teams that have a track record of wild inconsistency – turnovers, penalties, late-game meltdown, poor special teams, etc. These teams are usually enticing because of perceived “talent” advantages. But if they aren’t consistent and fundamentally sound, you don’t even want to think about betting on them away from home RX members

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Conclude my thread, I would like to share this thought with you RX members. I’m sure you’ve seen them online, heard through sports betting forums or various other online outlets, those posts or banners flashing the attention grabbing headline of the best betting system, or winning sports betting system, or we win 90% of our sports picks. The reality is that 80% of the sports betting systems in the market don’t work, or unqualified. I would even go on the line to say it is closer to 90% and the factors that play into their prediction systems or methods are why the majority of NFL betters lose. The unfortunate case with the handicapper market is that it’s a saturated market of self-proclaimed sports betting professionals claiming to have the latest sports betting system that produces the best winning picks and giving away with free picks

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It's not the dog in the fight; it's the fight in the dog when it comes to footballTop plays on the weekend are the ones you really need to go after...How a team will perform against the spread in Following week-of The season is an enormous trap. The fact is isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams and teams with a losing record or low margin vs.ones with a high margin from the previous Week is where the line value resides. It's not the dog in the fight; it's the fight in the dog when it comes to football. Certainly that's how upsets can happen," "You get a big play here and there, you get a loose fumble, pick it up and score, things like that. You generally need to get one or two big breaks to get a big upset. If you can get those and not give the other team anything, it can happen."


Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT