Super Bowl Sunday Service Play Thread 2/13/2022

[BuzzKill]

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[BuzzKill]

 

[dough]

Marco
E* - Rams -4

 

[BuzzKill]

SportsLine Projection Model

Sunday, Feb. 13

Rams 25, Bengals 23

Spread Pick:
Bengals +4
The Bengals cover in 53% of simulations

Over-Under Pick:
Under 49
The Under hits in 56% of simulations

 

[BuzzKill]

Al McMordie

NFL PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR! - Rams Over 48.5 -104

RAMS/BENGALS SUPER BOWL WINNER! - Bengals +4.5

 

[dough]

Teddy Covers SB

E* - Cin

 

[rockland]

Potato Kmish
Rams -190
Under 49

 

[Yankees5560]

HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Feb 13 2022 6:30PM
Akers O

(-115)William Hill 101 LOS vs 102 CIN single-dime bet

Analysis: Cam Akers (LAR) O59.5 rush yards -115 (Consensus)


Akers has become the bell cow for the Rams, and inefficiency has held him back from big statistical games.

However, part of the reason for that inefficiency is the fact that he’s played against the Bucs and 49ers elite run defenses for 37 of his 54 carries this post season. Cincinnati is 24th in the NFL in YPC allowed.

In a game where the Rams are nearly 2-1 favorites to win, game script shouldn’t get away from us, and McVay has shown throughout his tenure as the Rams head coach to be a one back coach. Akers once again dominated snaps in the NFC championship game until an in game shoulder injury cost him snaps.

Number is to low for a player getting Akers type of usage, and I would have made this number closer to the mid to high sixties.
Pregame .com, 5860 S. Pecos Rd Ste 400, Las Vegas, NV

 

[Yankees5560]

HITMAN | NFL MoneyLine - Sunday, Feb 13 2022 6:30PM
ML 101 LOS (-185)Southpoint vs 102 CIN single-dime bet

Analysis:
Personally, I am going to wait to play this. The Super Bowl favorite money line typically gets bet down on Game Day due to the books having liability on the underdog money line. However, I wanted to get this pick out early for everyone, so it will be graded at -185.


This isn't a big edge, and as you all know, the biggest edge we will have will be on the props. I am going to have official props and also send some "unofficial props" which will mostly consist of some rogue numbers that I hit that aren't widely available enough to make official. However, if you have access to some of those props, go ahead and bet them if the price is similar!

 

[Yankees5560]

HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Feb 13 2022 6:30PM
Jefferson U

(-110)William Hill 101 LOS vs 102 CIN single-dime bet

Analysis:
Van Jefferson (LAR) U2.5 receptions -120 (Consensus)

Jefferson has went under this number in 7 of his previous 8 games, and has only been seeing 3.5 targets per game in those contests. This line closed -150 in the NFC championship game and Jefferson still went under despite Stafford attempting 45 passes in that game. I see no reason for why this line isn’t similar to last weeks closing line on Jefferson.

 

[Koy_Detmer]

4Deep Bets Tommy G:

SUPERBOWL BETS

• Pending: Bengals +800 to win SB (1 to win 8u)
• Burrow over 273.5 passing (5u) max
• Burrow over 1.5 pass TD -160 (5u) max
• Burrow over 10.5 rushing (5u) max
• Stafford over 5.5 rushing (5u) max
• Kupp 80+, Beckham 40+ -134 (5u) max
• Higgins over 68.5 receiving (5u) max

 

[dough]

Lawrence

Bengals

 

[bmd1803]

Gianni the Greek

101) LA Rams ML (-190)…(4%)

UPGRADED to 5% BIG MOVE

101) LA Rams ML (-190)…(5%) via Draftkings at ML -180

 

[Yankees5560]

FEZZIK


FrIday 2/4 morning update: check back tonight!



Duplicate pick. Previous pick incorrectly added for Pro Bowl

Here is a list of EVERY BET I make in the Super Bowl:

OFFICIAL PLAYS:

2 stars:

Rams Receiver Cooper Kupp OVER 102.5 receiving Yards, -130
This is good UP to OVER 104.5 for 2 stars, OVER 106 for 1 star. I expect it will keep going up.

2 stars:

Cincy Bengals UNDER 23 team total -125. This is still out there in spots. Aok to p;lay UN 22 if you missed 23.

 

[Yankees5560]

FEZZIK


Note, MANY of my bets will NOT be widely available.

For now, here is a complete list of EVERY bet I personally made below (I will likely upgrade some to official plays as the market matures)

************

Rams ML -175

Note, wait on this now, the SB Ml typically gets cheaper close to post.


2h points will be higher scoring -140 vs. 1h.

Avoid a 3-way line, don't bet this if ties lose.

Total Punts OVER 6.5 -140

Rams will be the last team to score in 1st half -115

Rams will have last possession -120
Note this is sometimes listed ("rams to take last snap")

Rams RB Akers OVER 58.5 rush yards -140
Rams WR Kupp OVER 102.5 -125 reception yards

Rams to punt LAST -115
The team with the lead is a solid favorite to punt the ball last in a game.

Rams 1st team to score 30 points -221 (2 way)

Rams 1st team to score 20 points -182 (2 way)

Be careful NOT to bet these into a 3-way line. If neither team gets to 20 points, this has to be a push not a LOSS. So if they have a 3rd option "neither team" do not bet these.



Rams 2h points higher than Rams 1st half points -128
Cin 2h points higher than Cin 1st half points -140

Again, ties have to push here. Do not bet if there is a 3 way line with "a tie".

 

[Yankees5560]

HITMAN | NFL MoneyLine - Sunday, Feb 13 2022 6:30PM
ML 101 LOS (-185)Southpoint vs 102 CIN single-dime bet

Analysis:
Personally, I am going to wait to play this. The Super Bowl favorite money line typically gets bet down on Game Day due to the books having liability on the underdog money line. However, I wanted to get this pick out early for everyone, so it will be graded at -185.


This isn't a big edge, and as you all know, the biggest edge we will have will be on the props. I am going to have official props and also send some "unofficial props" which will mostly consist of some rogue numbers that I hit that aren't widely available enough to make official. However, if you have access to some of those props, go ahead and bet them if the price is similar!





Here is a list of "unofficial" plays that I made. What that means is that these lines are not super widely available, so I can't make them official plays. I'll probably have 100+ personal plays for this game and I didn't include any that I know are gone and nobody will have a chance at them. If you can find some of these lines are similar lines to what I played, they are worth a play. I will update this as the week goes on





Mcpherson O1.5 FG -115
Kupp MVP 6-1
Last play of 1H no QB rush -210
2H+OT>1H scoring -130
Punts O6.5 -130
Opening kickoff return attempt +170
Rams most rush yards -150
Bengals longest FG -105
Rams first TD pass -120

 

[Yankees5560]

Fezzik | NFL Prop - Sunday, Feb 13 2022 6:30PM
2d hlf vs1h.

(-145)Southpoint 101 LOS vs 102 CIN triple-dime bet

Analysis: Bet 2nd half higher scoring than 1st half. 3 stars.

NOTE: You want to bet this into a 2 way line (Ties push).

If you bet it into a 3 way line (ties lose) than be sure to get it -125 or less (essentially it would then be 2h -1/2 vs 1h).

 

[Yankees5560]

Fezzik | NFL Prop - Sunday, Feb 13 2022 6:30PM
Cin long FG

(-120)William Hill 101 LOS vs 102 CIN double-dime bet

Analysis: The one big edge Cin has is with their Kicker. Solid Value betting him to have the longest FG

 

[Yankees5560]

Fezzik | NFL Prop - Sunday, Feb 13 2022 6:30PM
LA last snap

(-130)William Hill 101 LOS vs 102 CIN double-dime bet

Analysis: LA to take last snap/e.g. to have last possession.

I favor Rams greatly to win game, and that makes them a BIG favorite to run out the clock in the end game.

 

[Yankees5560]

Fezzik | NFL Prop - Sunday, Feb 13 2022 6:30PM
Rams1st down

(-110)Westgate 101 LOS vs 102 CIN triple-dime bet

Analysis: 3* PROP OF THE YEAR SBowl

Rams more 1st downs -1-110 vs Cincy -1

If you cannot get this -1, then aok to Play Rams More 1st downs pk -150.