Super Bowl Prop / Too Much Value on this one.

[souzathelooza]

This wager had to be made at 1 unit.

Will the 2nd quarter be scoreless ?

YES +1909

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That is over 19 to 1 for a scoreless 2nd qtr.
I had to throw some small change on this proposition.
Two nice defenses going against each other
made this a must play.

 

[souzathelooza]

1st and 3rd quarters were +480.

4th quarter +820

 

[ESQAJM]

If you play all four quarters for the same amount of money, you are guaranteed to win if you hit 1 quarter. If you get lucky you can pick up a nice piece of change if you hit 1 or 2 quarters. Seems pretty good. I'll play all 4 quarters if my book has the prop.
ESQAJM

 

[Fezzik]

I have to caution you about this type of logic.

I'm seeing a lot of this during the week. Handicappers and scamdicappers mixing and matching props to try to look clever.

One high profile knowledgable player is even telling all to play two +150 props, all you need to do is to win 1 to make money.


ARGHHHHHHHHH. A bet has to be evaluated independently to see if it has positive expectation. If it does, bet it. It's true one can often find two positive expectation bets that reduce risk togehter (Carolina +7, No OT -850). But PLEASE, handicappers stop releasing idiotic advice like play 150s twice and 1-1 makes you money.

 

[ESQAJM]

Fezzik: You said:

"A bet has to be evaluated independently to see if it has positive expectation. If it does, bet it."

Well that is what I have done in this case before I wrote the above post. I may not have explained it in my post. This game has the potential to be a very low scoring game (I'm not saying it will be), because of the 2 strong defensive teams. The score could be 6-3, 7-3, 10-7, etc. If we get a game like that, there will definitely be 1 qtr that is scoreless and possibly 2. If you get lucky it could be the qtr with the longest odds. I think the potential return on your money makes this bet worthwhile.
ESQAJM