Super Bowl Prop Thread - Helping each other out

swirv · Jan 27, 2015

Will be taking the under 3 on "deflate" being said still . Think they lay off it maybe mention it once in a back and forth, I doubt they bring it up multiple times tho

outhousetim · Jan 27, 2015

Agree!

swirv said:
Will be taking the under 3 on "deflate" being said still . Think they lay off it maybe mention it once in a back and forth, I doubt they bring it up multiple times tho

chonce · Jan 27, 2015

Some props I have been considering. Bold ones I like the most, regular text I am on the fence but leaning. Feel free to critique, add comment, suggest different or better props. I feel that Seattle will focus on Gronk, so I think this opens things up for Edelman.

First Penalty – Pats (+100)
Pats most penalties +130
Punter with longest punt –Allen (-120)
Edelman Over 6.5 catches (-110)
Edelman Over .5 carry (-120) –note: he has a carry in 11/15 games this year
Blount Over 14.5 carries (-110)
Shortest Field Goal Over 24.5 yards (-11o)
Gronk first catch Over 10 yards (-110)
Baldwin Under 4 catches (-111)
Lafell Under 50.5 yards (-110) (if Sherman stays on right side of field )

swirv · Jan 27, 2015

chonce said:
Some props I have been considering. Bold ones I like the most, regular text I am on the fence but leaning. Feel free to critique, add comment, suggest different or better props. I feel that Seattle will focus on Gronk, so I think this opens things up for Edelman.

First Penalty – Pats (+100)
Pats most penalties +130
Punter with longest punt –Allen (-120)
Edelman Over 6.5 catches (-110)
Edelman Over .5 carry (-120) –note: he has a carry in 11/15 games this year
Blount Over 14.5 carries (-110)
Shortest Field Goal Over 24.5 yards (-11o)
Gronk first catch Over 10 yards (-110)
Baldwin Under 4 catches (-111)
Lafell Under 50.5 yards (-110) (if Sherman stays on right side of field )

Comments on bolded. I like Sea first penalty the avg more per game
Should be able to find Edelman over 6 out there
Like Blount for everything else so may as well like the 14.5
Gronk looks good
Like Lafell already mentioned in here I think, some were worried is Sherman not healthy

Bl0wnAway · Jan 28, 2015

I just made a big bet on
UNDER 70.5 degrees at kickoff (-115) (I'm a meteorologist and this is 5Xs my usual wager. Keep in mind we get it wrong sometimes, but I'm getting my money in before the juice gets heavy).

bukis1 · Jan 28, 2015

Bl0wnAway said:
I just made a big bet on
UNDER 70.5 degrees at kickoff (-115) (I'm a meteorologist and this is 5Xs my usual wager. Keep in mind we get it wrong sometimes, but I'm getting my money in before the juice gets heavy).

Can't remember is this an open stadium or retractable roof?

bukis1 · Jan 28, 2015

Just checked nfl plans to have roof open but could change if needed

Bl0wnAway · Jan 28, 2015

bukis 1 said:
Can't remember is this an open stadium or retractable roof?

This doesn't matter for the prop since they take the temperature outdoors

outhousetim · Jan 28, 2015

Like the Punter prop (Allen with longest punt).

swirv · Jan 28, 2015

I have Bovada, 5dimes, sportsbetting.ag, sportsbook.ag and locals and cant find a prop out there with the temperature.

swirv · Jan 28, 2015

Yards gained on first play of game under 7.5 -140

BROOMSKI · Jan 29, 2015

#10045- Tom Brady to throw INT.......gift

Bl0wnAway · Jan 29, 2015

swirv said:
I have Bovada, 5dimes, sportsbetting.ag, sportsbook.ag and locals and cant find a prop out there with the temperature.

I got it on Betonline, but it dropped to 68.5 last night, which will be a much tighter number. I'm considering going for a middle since I made a 10X wager on U70.5

lookin4awinner · Jan 29, 2015

Shane Vereen OVER 2.5 carries.... this will hit before half-time

chonce · Jan 29, 2015

I am writing this to urge prop betters to keep a close eye on the inactive list for the following reason:

Those of us who watch the Patriots play every week know that when the Pats go run-heavy -- as they did with Indy -- they activate Cameron Fleming to serve as an extra lineman on heavy sets. The thing is: if they don't plan on using that set, his roster spot goes to someone else (maybe an extra WR like Brian Tyms, or a special teamer like Chris White).

So before placing prop bets on several key rushing props, look at the inactive list.

If Fleming is active (I suspect he will, but only the Pats know for sure)

Blount Over 14.5 carries
Blount OVER rushing yards (forget the number off the top of head)

Edelman OVER .5 carries (they almost always run a reverse once defense starts biting toward the Fleming side of the line -- 11/16 games this year Edelman has a carry, and it is often out of this heavy set.)

Hooman -- over 6.5 yards receiving -- hooman will get a lot of snaps if they run heavy formation a lot.

Also, know that having these extra lineman was a key part of Belichick's inielgible, eligible stuff -- So I do suspect Fleming will be active.

But, if Fleming is inactive...

I would bet the UNDER on those Blount/Edelman rushing/carries stuff.
Plus, I will strongly consider betting :
OVER for Vereen carries
OVER Vereen yards
Over Vereen catches

as without the heavy set, he will get twice as many snaps, and thus, likely more yards, carries and catches.

I really think this provides an edge to close observers of the Pats -- and hopefully one the books are not too keen on -- that is the beauty of props (and hence the harsh maximum bet restrictions.

Pat's fans -- am I right here? Am I missing anything?

outhousetim · Jan 29, 2015

Interesting take, and thanks. Love to see more discussion on this.

chonce said:
I am writing this to urge prop betters to keep a close eye on the inactive list for the following reason:

Those of us who watch the Patriots play every week know that when the Pats go run-heavy -- as they did with Indy -- they activate Cameron Fleming to serve as an extra lineman on heavy sets. The thing is: if they don't plan on using that set, his roster spot goes to someone else (maybe an extra WR like Brian Tyms, or a special teamer like Chris White).

So before placing prop bets on several key rushing props, look at the inactive list.

If Fleming is active (I suspect he will, but only the Pats know for sure)

Blount Over 14.5 carries
Blount OVER rushing yards (forget the number off the top of head)

Edelman OVER .5 carries (they almost always run a reverse once defense starts biting toward the Fleming side of the line -- 11/16 games this year Edelman has a carry, and it is often out of this heavy set.)

Hooman -- over 6.5 yards receiving -- hooman will get a lot of snaps if they run heavy formation a lot.

Also, know that having these extra lineman was a key part of Belichick's inielgible, eligible stuff -- So I do suspect Fleming will be active.

But, if Fleming is inactive...

I would bet the UNDER on those Blount/Edelman rushing/carries stuff.
Plus, I will strongly consider betting :
OVER for Vereen carries
OVER Vereen yards
Over Vereen catches

as without the heavy set, he will get twice as many snaps, and thus, likely more yards, carries and catches.

I really think this provides an edge to close observers of the Pats -- and hopefully one the books are not too keen on -- that is the beauty of props (and hence the harsh maximum bet restrictions.

Pat's fans -- am I right here? Am I missing anything?

bodyforlife · Jan 29, 2015

Again guys, if you can put numbers on your prop suggestions, it would be helpful. I just sent a friend of mine all the props on 5dimes and it is 40 pages worth. No one wants to go through all that to find these things. I'd love to get a number on the weather prop.