Sunday Service Play Thread 11/07/2021

[Betallsports]

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[Mr.Bojangles]

anyone have Fezzik or Hitman for Sunday? Thanks in advance.

 

[Lawfrankd]

HITMAN | NFL Sides - Sunday, Nov 7 2021 4:05PM
467 LAC -1.0 (-110)Bookmaker vs 468 PHI double-dime bet

 

[Lawfrankd]

HITMAN | NFL Teaser - Sunday, Nov 7 2021 1:00PM
CLE/SF

(-120)Bookmaker 461 CLE vs 462 CIN double-dime bet

Analysis:
2* 6 PT TEASER: Browns +9/49ers +8.5 -120



Handicapping 101 says to play San Francisco. Kyler Murray is not 100% healthy, San Francisco won the stats in their previous matchup this season, having +0.6 YPP but losing because they went 1/5 on fourth down. The 49ers held the Cardinals offense to 17 points.

We know the 49ers can run the ball, and Green Bay last week exposed a struggling Cardinals run defense without JJ Watt that allowed Packers running backs to run for 137 yards. The 49ers will also have Jimmy G and George Kittle back this week, whom both did not start in their first matchup.

Cleveland's in a must win spot and I have them power rated as the slightly better team than Cincinnati. Cleveland is getting healthier by the week and I still believe their injuries from earlier in the season has lowered their power rating in the market place. I definitely lean towards taking the 3 with them as well, but I also like them as a teaser pair with San Fran,

 

[Lawfrankd]

HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Nov 7 2021 1:00PM
457 NEP / 458 CAR UNDER 43.0 Westgatedouble-dime bet

Analysis: This total is to high even with Darnold at QB, and if we do get Walker, it should crash to 40 or so. Carolina and New England are two dead nuts under teams, and are both bottom 3 in situational neutral pass rate over the last four weeks.

 

[Lawfrankd]

HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Nov 7 2021 1:00PM
465 ATL / 466 NOS UNDER 44.0 Bookmakerdouble-dime bet

Analysis:
The book is out on the Falcons offense. The Falcons offense struggles mightily against teams that can pressure Matt Ryan. as evidenced in losses to the Eagles and Panthers earlier this season where Atlanta scored only 19 combined points. The Saints are 6th in the NFL in pressure percentage this season, and have absolutely dominated this Falcons offense over the past two seasons, allowing only 9, 16, 26, and 18 points. All four of those games had 44 or less points, and that was when Atlanta had Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones.

I've spoken this year about how I believe the Saints are the leagues most dead nuts under team. In fact, their totals have been getting bet down from the openers almost every week this season. This Saints team has a top 5 defense and the leagues least explosive offense, and that was with a half decent quarterback in Jameis Winston.

In a game the market expects the Saints to control, I expect little explosiveness from both teams in this matchup.

 

[Lawfrankd]

Sorry been busy

 

[Lawfrankd]

Agree the new format is horrible , confusing, not user friendly … always like when people make a change just to make a change without thinking about exactly what they are changing

 

[ryangenero]

FOOTBALL JESUS Free pick NFL : 49ers + pts

 

[dough]

Essler C* Non-Conf GOY
Eagles

 

[BuzzKill]

Newsletters

Thanks buzz

www.therx.com

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[JayGrace]

Steve Serby - 17-7 best bet record in NY Post

patriots
Chargers
Steelers

 

[GalenThomas]

Collins NFL Blazin 5
*Ravens -6
*Cowboys -9.5
* Falcons + 6.5
*NY Giants + 3
* San Fran -1

 

[GalenThomas]

Does anyone have King Creole's NFL 'D Over' of the weeK?

 

[JayGrace]

Jeff Ma- 4-1 last week (25-15 season record)
Jets- L
Saints
Browns
chargers
raiders

 

[BuzzKill]

Indian Cowboy NFL

G LAC -130
E CAR +3.5
C GB +7.5
C CHI +6.5

E-Unit Play. #458. Take Panthers +3.5 Over Patriots (Sunday @ 1:00 pm est)
We are backing the Panthers as home dogs. This is a tough spot for the Pats as they come in off an outright win on the road as +3.5 dogs against the Chargers. Not sure I am comfortable laying points with the Pats on the road as favorites as they likely have a let down here. All signs are pointing to no Darnold out with concussion and in comes PJ Walker which we are fine with. Who did Walker play for? Temple. Who was his coach at Temple? Matt Rhule. These two have chemistry and familiarity with each other. Walker I think actually poses different challenges for the Pats. Belichick said "Walker appears to be more elusive than Darnold, whose status isn't likely to be resolved until the weekend. The New England coach said Walker's arm strength has been evident, even referencing what he has seen by reviewing Carolina's preseason games." So I think we actually get an upgrade at QB for the Panthers with Walker. Add in the fact that news out of camp is that it is quite possible that McCaffrey might go this week which will add another weapon and dynamic for the Panthers and Walker on offense extending drives. CB Gilmour will play against his former team since being cut and traded a few weeks ago to the Panthers and I expect him to be motivated and have an impact on the defensive side. This line opened Pats -2.5 with the public all over them but at -3.5 we have value with the home team here and the points. I would not be surprised to see the Panthers win outright at home but we will take the points. The Patriots are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win. Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.

C-Unit Play. #469. Take Packers +7.5 Over Chiefs (Sunday @ 4:25 pm est)
We roll with the Packers here as I think this is a big overreaction to the Rogers news being out with Covid. The Chiefs cannot cover against anyone these days and could not cover as -10.5 favorites at home against the Giants so how are they going to cover against the Packers even without Rogers. Jordan Love will make his first start and lets not forget he was drafted in the first round for a reason. He has been with this team for a few years and is learning under Rogers. This is not a new system or team for him and will have all week to prepare. If there is anyone motivated here it's Jordan Love to prove to Packers brass that when his time comes he can and will take over for Rogers and what a better signature win then to do so over the Chiefs. The Packers will likely get Adams back this week who was out last week with Covid. We saw this last week with the Packers when Adams and Lazard were out that there was a big over reaction and they managed to win outright against the Cardinals. Given the state of the Chiefs right now this is simply too many points for them to be laying here against a well oiled machine like the Packers. We will gladly take the points here with the Packers and this over reaction and expect them to hang tough and keep this within a FG type game. Chiefs are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win. Chiefs are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite.

G-Unit Play. #467. Take Chargers ML (-130) Over Eagles (Sunday @ 4:05 pm est)
We love the Chargers here in this spot. The Chargers were in the drivers seat for the division but now come off back to back losses. They need a win here to keep up with the Raiders for top spot in the division. One question is who are you going to back in this spot Herbert or Hurts. No question we back Herbert in this spot and the weapons he has available. What I dont understand is the sudden love for the Eagles? This line opened Chargers -3 but money has come pouring in on the Eagles which makes no sense. They come off a game where they beat up the Lions who were coming in on a letdown after laying it all out there against the Rams and we were on the Eagles for that game last week. The big question here is how are the Eagles going to stop Herbert and the Chargers. The Eagles gave up 33 points to the Raiders, 28 to the Bucs, 42 to the Chiefs, and 41 against Dallas. Hurts and the Eagels cannot trade points and they will not be able to keep up with the Chargers. The Chargers cannot afford to take this game likely as they need this win and on deck they have the Vikings another non conference opponent so this is not a look ahead spot for them. I trust Herbert and the Chargers more off back to back losses over Hurts and the Eagles. We saw what happened a few weeks ago when the sharps took the Eagles from +3 to -1 against the Raiders and got destroyed. I will gladly take the more talented team here in the Chargers on the ML to just win the game. If you look at the Eagles losses they all came against elite teams in or bound for the playoffs. If you look at their wins they all came against teams .500 or below. They will struggle here again today and we like the Chargers to bounce back.

 

[BuzzKill]

Jj sports

colts ml

 

[BuzzKill]

MM SPORTS

Jets +10.5

 

[BuzzKill]

Doc Sports

G chargers-1.5
D broncos+10
D panthers+3.5

 

[BuzzKill]

R & R Total

Game: (455) Minnesota Vikings at (456) Baltimore Ravens
Date/Time: Nov 7 2021 1:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: E units
Play: Total Over 49.5 (-110)