Sunday Service Play Thread 09/12/2021

[BuzzKill]

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[Yankees5560]

HITMAN | NFL Sides - Sunday, Sep 12 2021 1:00PM
467 MIN -3.0 (-110)Circa Sports vs 468 CIN double-dime bet

Analysis: I make this game Vikings -3.25, which means I have close to neutral power rating value, but the matchup and Joe Burrow's return circumstances heavily favor Minnesota.


Joe Burrow is only 9 in a half months from not only tearing his ACL and MCL, but he also had damage to his meniscus and PCL. All reports coming out of Cincinnati from beat writers, and also quotes from players such as Tyler Boyd, are saying that Burrow is far from 100% at the moment.


Meanwhile. Minnesota has made major additions in their front 7 that should be able to take advantage of a bottom five Bengals offensive line. The Bengals defense projects to be one of the leagues worst, and defensively they will be without CB Trae Waynes, leaving journeyman corners Chidobe Awuzie and Eli Apple in charge of covering Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. Cincinnati has also failed to make any significant upgrades to last years 31st ranked rushing defense in YPC allowed, making this a huge mismatch in favor of Dalvin Cook and the Vikings.

 

[ciuki85]

Tony Finn Wagertalk
5* Jacksonville -2.5

 

[ryangenero]

Football Jesus Free pick : Patriots-pts

 

[jjmcg4737]

Victor Kings / King Creoles 4* play NFL play for Sunday? Thanks!

 

[tmoney1033]

Anyone have Dave Cokin 5% underdog? TIA

 

[AlCat]

Anyone have Lee Sterling 50 unit play ?

 

[ciuki85]

Anyone have Dave Cokin 5% underdog? TIA

it,s clevland Browns +6

 

[JayGrace]

Jeff Ma-
Patriots
Browns
Cowboys- W
Giants
Saints

 

[BuzzKill]

Anyone have Dave Cokin 5% underdog? TIA

it,s clevland Browns +6

Game: (471) Cleveland Browns at (472) Kansas City Chiefs
Date/Time: Sep 12 2021 4:25 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: E%
Play: Cleveland Browns +6.0 (-110)
Let's be clear, this is not a go against the Chiefs thing for me. Kansas City is going to be very strong again this season and I sure won't be shocked if they're playing in another Super Bowl. But I really like this Cleveland squad. Fact is, I've got the Browns as the top-rated AFC team on my numbers. The offense is top-level, right there with that of the Chiefs. The Cleveland defense might not be elite but it's well above average. My big question about KC is the defense, which I have been barely average, and I don't like the way their defensive front matches up with a Cleveland offensive line that I have rated as the best unit in the league. The Browns should have a very good opportunity to feature their powerful ground game and that should set up Mayfield for some high percentage chances downfield. That also can keep the KC attack on the sidelines more than they'd prefer to be. It's no secret the Browns have been pointing to this opener from the first day of training camp as it's genuinely a statement challenge for them right out of the gate. I expect Cleveland to be more than up to that challenge and I believe the Browns will win this game. Certainly worth a sprinkle on the money line but for me, the better value is taking nearly a full TD. Browns plus the points for a Top Play.

NFL WEEK ONE BEST BET
Game: (475) Denver Broncos at (476) New York Giants
Date/Time: Sep 12 2021 4:25 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D%
Play: Denver Broncos -1.5 (-120)
I'm mostly a matchup handicapper when it comes to football. Strength vs. weakness mismatches are huge to me and I am confident we have one here. The Broncos should have one of the better defensive fronts in the NFL. I see it as a high level unit, and that's even with Von Miller showing some signs of age. If Miller has one more big year left in his body, this unit could be elite. That Denver DL matches up extremely well with a Giants offensive line that could be the worst in the league. I also very much like the fact Teddy Bridgewater won the starting QB job for the Broncos. Bridgewater is not a great QB by any stretch. But he is an excellent game manager and that makes him a very good fit on a team like this one. For what it's worth, Bridgewater also has a great spread record on the road. In any event, I see this being a favorable matchup for the visitors. I also think this line could eventually get to -3, so I'm making my move now and spotting a more playable number with the Broncos.

 

[BuzzKill]

Teddy Covers

E%: Carolina -4
D%: Denver -2.5
C% New England – Miami: FIRST HALF UNDER 22.5
C% - Baltimore -5

 

[BuzzKill]

Vernon Croy

Cardinals O52 (EU)

 

[BuzzKill]

Scott Spreitzer

Patriots -3 (FU)
Packers -3.5 (CU)

 

[BuzzKill]

Doc Sports

D patriots-3
C seattle-2.5
B bills-6.5
B denver-3

 

[BuzzKill]

Adam Trigger

WFT PK
Browns +6

 

[BuzzKill]

Mike Tierney

BALTIMORE @ LAS VEGAS | 09/13 | 8:15 PM EDT
BALTIMORE -4.5
ANALYSIS: To say that coach John Harbaugh gets the Ravens ready for season openers is an under statement. Baltimore has outscored its last four Week 1 opponents by a remarkable average of 41-5, with margins of victory at 32, 49, 44 and 20. While conventional thought suggest the Monday night home underdog side holds an edge, the theory did not stand up last year. Visitors went 12-5 straight up, with one of the wins achieved by Baltimore at Cleveland. Las Vegas overhauled much of its roster and the extreme makeover can pay off eventually, but the schedule-maker dealt the Raiders a rough card in the opener.

 

[BuzzKill]

Matt Severance

CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY | 09/12 | 4:25 PM EDT
KANSAS CITY -6
ANALYSIS: I will normally wait until at least Friday to pick NFL games, but I'm going to break that rule here simply because most books have the Chiefs now at -6.5 and some at -7, and I don't want those numbers so I'll have to hope no COVID issues between now and Sunday for Kansas City. The Browns could be stellar this year but are they ready to win at a full Arrowhead Stadium? Not sure of that. Plus, I'm sure you know that Cleveland has just a single opening day victory since returning to the NFL. Sometimes you see a Super Bowl hangover even for the loser -- but I think the Chiefs (and their new offensive line) come out like gangbusters to put that terrible effort behind them once and for all. They have covered four straight Week 1 games.

 

[BuzzKill]

Jeff Hochman

SAN FRANCISCO @ DETROIT | 09/12 | 1:00 PM EDT
DETROIT +7.5
ANALYSIS: The Lions have a very good offensive line and will be able to put some points on the board against a team that's learning a new defense. The 49ers also have a new offensive coordinator. I don't think having QBs Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance splitting reps helps either. This line is super-inflated. Home teams getting at least seven points in Week 1 have been very profitable. Take the underdog Lions.

 

[BuzzKill]

Martin Green

Poland vs. England (2:45 p.m. ET)

England to win and 2 or more goals in match (+105)


Northern Ireland vs. Switzerland (2:45 p.m. ET)

Switzerland to win (-150)


Iceland vs. Germany (2:45 p.m. ET)

Germany win to nil (-118)


Greece vs. Sweden (2:45 p.m. ET)

Sweden to win (+110)

 

[BuzzKill]

GIANNI THE GREEK


Game: (465) Seattle Seahawks at (466) Indianapolis Colts
Date/Time: Sep 12 2021 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D%
Play: Total Over 49.5 (-110)
465) OVER 49 SEA-IND...(D%)