yesterday i made the terrible mistake of overlooking the very things that won for me all year long.
i won't do that today.
since the 4-wildcard playoff format was instituted in 1990, never has the favorite covered all 4, conversely the dog covered all 4 once in the 14 year history.
favs ats in wc games
90 2-2
91 0-4
92 1-2-1
93 2-2
94 2-1-1
95 2-2
96 3-1
97 3-1
98 2-1-1
99 3-1
00 1-3
01 3-1
02 1-3
03 2-1(1 pick game)
i chose seattle based on trends, supposed injuries, home field and st.louis being outdoors(BIG MISTAKE), knowing all the time the dog covered the last 4 straight in series(now 5), and more importantly my #'s system had sea by 3, 0-4 ats last 4 (now 0-5 last 5).
outcome....dog covers, system covers, i lose.
i chose sd based on the spread run, trends, supposed injuries,home field advantage and "the better team theory". knowing the road team covered last 4 in series,(now 5). #'s system was sd by 1 11-5 ats(1-2 last 3), now 1-3 last 4.
outcome....road team covers, system covers, i lose.
today....
den/ind...wc card games involving den has shown the favs in these games have gone 4-0 ats since 93.
wc games involving indy has shown the home team going 4-1 ats in last 5 with the only standout being indy winning on the road since 95.
#'s system has ind by 6, 4-1 ats last 5.
min/gb...in series the dog has covered the last 11 straight with minn covering 6 of last 8. #'s system has gb by 3, now 0-5 ats last 5.
heated div rivalry.
given the dog covered 2 games already, and i love the dog stat in gb, i have to figure the fav covers one of them based on past history.
it's back to the future, usually the #'s system has'nt fared well in the playoffs. in hindsight i should never and will never again bite the hand that fed me so well all season long.
going back to the horse and method that served me well for 17 weeks.
going heavier than i have done all but once this season, and i'm not lookin back.
200
INDIANAPOLIS
OVER
MINNESOTA
OVER
in all fairness i should mention that all 4 wc games played by denver since 93 averaged 51 pts and all 5 wc games played by indy since 95 averaged 51 pts.
the only reason i'm going over in that game is because it's always a good idea to take the over when giving big points,(just in case the opponent goes up by 10 or 14 points early), that type of start usually kills unders before the the game even get to the half.
"hopefully"...I WILL NOT BE DENIED!
GAME.
i won't do that today.
since the 4-wildcard playoff format was instituted in 1990, never has the favorite covered all 4, conversely the dog covered all 4 once in the 14 year history.
favs ats in wc games
90 2-2
91 0-4
92 1-2-1
93 2-2
94 2-1-1
95 2-2
96 3-1
97 3-1
98 2-1-1
99 3-1
00 1-3
01 3-1
02 1-3
03 2-1(1 pick game)
i chose seattle based on trends, supposed injuries, home field and st.louis being outdoors(BIG MISTAKE), knowing all the time the dog covered the last 4 straight in series(now 5), and more importantly my #'s system had sea by 3, 0-4 ats last 4 (now 0-5 last 5).
outcome....dog covers, system covers, i lose.
i chose sd based on the spread run, trends, supposed injuries,home field advantage and "the better team theory". knowing the road team covered last 4 in series,(now 5). #'s system was sd by 1 11-5 ats(1-2 last 3), now 1-3 last 4.
outcome....road team covers, system covers, i lose.
today....
den/ind...wc card games involving den has shown the favs in these games have gone 4-0 ats since 93.
wc games involving indy has shown the home team going 4-1 ats in last 5 with the only standout being indy winning on the road since 95.
#'s system has ind by 6, 4-1 ats last 5.
min/gb...in series the dog has covered the last 11 straight with minn covering 6 of last 8. #'s system has gb by 3, now 0-5 ats last 5.
heated div rivalry.
given the dog covered 2 games already, and i love the dog stat in gb, i have to figure the fav covers one of them based on past history.
it's back to the future, usually the #'s system has'nt fared well in the playoffs. in hindsight i should never and will never again bite the hand that fed me so well all season long.
going back to the horse and method that served me well for 17 weeks.
going heavier than i have done all but once this season, and i'm not lookin back.
200
INDIANAPOLIS
OVER
MINNESOTA
OVER
in all fairness i should mention that all 4 wc games played by denver since 93 averaged 51 pts and all 5 wc games played by indy since 95 averaged 51 pts.
the only reason i'm going over in that game is because it's always a good idea to take the over when giving big points,(just in case the opponent goes up by 10 or 14 points early), that type of start usually kills unders before the the game even get to the half.
"hopefully"...I WILL NOT BE DENIED!
GAME.
