MLB Daily Line Drive: Sunday's Picks, Betting Odds and Analysis
Double-Play Picks
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers (+125, 9.5)
The Dodgers and Brewers wrap up their three-game weekend set with a matchup of a good starting pitcher versus a not-so-good starting pitcher.
The Dodgers will send their secondary ace Kenta Maeda to the mound Sunday looking for the sweep on the road. Los Angeles has won seven of his last eight starts and he has had great success in his brief career against the Brewers - 2-0 team win/loss, 12.1 innings pitched, 1.46 ERA. Maeda's last start at Miller Park was six innings of three-hit pitching in an eventual 8-1 Dodgers win over the Brewers.
The Brewers will send right-hander Zach Davies to the Miller Park mound this afternoon. Davies' numbers are a bit deceptive - what we can't forget is that he owns a 6.46 ERA, .397 opponent's on base percentage, and a 1.83 WHIP at home this season. The Brewers have lost Davies' last five starts at home against teams above .500, so when good teams come to town they will get to him...and the Dodgers are a good team.
Pick: Dodgers -145
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels (+105, 8.5)
On Saturday night, Angels' DH Albert Pujols became just the ninth player in Major League Baseball history to hit 600 home runs for his career. A truly great accomplishment that is a perfect letdown spot for a lazy Sunday afternoon in sunny Los Angeles.
The Angels haven't had much to celebrate over the last several seasons, so they definitely had a little "team dinner" (baseball code for getting messed up as a group) after last night's game and there will be plenty of tired eyes and slow bats in the lineup today.
The Twins will send their future ace Jose Berrios to the mound. Berrios has been great in his four start since being recalled in May with a 3-1 record, 2.70 ERA, and a 0.79 WHIP. It's also worth noting that his four starts this season were against very strong offensive ball clubs - the Indians, the Rockies, the Orioles, and the Astros. He won't see anything like that today against the Trout-less Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
The Angeles will counter with Ricky Nolasco today who is having a rough season and over his last three starts is 0-3 with a 7.36 ERA and a WHIP of 1.70. The young Twins should have plenty of fun smacking the ball around and getting out of town with a series win before heading up to Seattle to play the Mariners.
Pick: Twins -125
Yesterday's Picks: 2-0
Season To Date: 53-42-5
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Luis Severino, New York Yankees (4-2, 2.93 ERA, $27)
Louis Severino has been one of the key cogs to the New York Yankees' starting rotation over the first two months of the season. With Tanaka struggling, the Yanks are lucky they've had someone like Severino step up and fill that gap of solid starts.
Over his last three trips to the mound, Severino is 2-0 with a 0.93 ERA and a WHIP of 1.09. His command has been the key with only 5 walks to go along with 22 strikeouts over those last 19.1 innings of work.
Severino and the Yankees are in Toronto this afternoon and are road underdogs at +105.
Slumping: Amir Garrett, Cincinnati Reds (3-3, 6.00 ERA, $85)
Amir Garrett has had a couple of good starts for the Reds this season and overall his numbers are...meh.
But this is the "Slumping Starting Pitchers" section so we will focus on his last two starts. Two straight losses, 13 earned runs allowed over nine innings in those two starts (13.00 ERA), and six home runs allowed. It's very important to keep the ball in the ballpark, Amir.
Garrett and the Reds are home favorites against the visiting Atlanta Braves today at -120.
Sunday's Top Trends
* The Detroit Tigers are 21-5 in Justin Verlander's last 26 starts vs. White Sox. -200 today.
* The Philadelphia Phillies are 6-1 in Jeremy Hellickson's last 7 home starts. +105 vs. Giants.
* Over is 16-3-2 in the Houston Astros' last 21 Sunday games. Astros/Rangers Total: 9.5.
* The Minnesota Twins are 12-2 in their last 14 road games vs. a right-handed starter. -125 @ Angels.
* Over is 12-2 in the Tampa Bay Rays' last 14 road games. Rays/Mariners Total: 8.5.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There is a 60 percent chance of rain/thunderstorms at Comerica Park in Detroit today where the Tigers will entertain the Chicago White Sox. This game will also feature a 15 mile per hour wind blowing out to left field for most of the afternoon. The total is currently set at 9.5.
There is also a chance of a thunderstorm in Arlington, Texas where the Rangers are hosting the Astros. It's only a 50 percent chance of precipitation, but these Texas thunderstorms can sometimes be unpredictable. The total is 9.5 this afternoon.
There will also be notable hitter's winds blowing straight out to center field in Philadelphia for the Phillies and Giants (10-12 MPH, Total: 9), in Baltimore for the Orioles and Red Sox (10-12 MPH, Total: 8.5), and in Oakland for the A's and Nationals (15 MPH, Total: 8.5).
Ump Of The Day
Gary Cederstrom: Gary Cederstrom will be behind the plate today in Toronto where the Blue Jays will be hosting the New York Yankees. Cederstrom is favoring the Over this season at 8-3 and his last six games wearing the pads have cashed for Over bettors. This is a bit unusual for him as in his career he has shaded slightly toward the Under.
What isn't unusual for a Cederstrom officiated ball game is the home team winning. The home team has won 8 of his 11 games behind the plate this season and in 2016 the home team was a whopping 24-9 in games with him calling ball and strikes.
The total today in Toronto is currently 8 and the Jays are favorites at -115.
Double-Play Picks
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers (+125, 9.5)
The Dodgers and Brewers wrap up their three-game weekend set with a matchup of a good starting pitcher versus a not-so-good starting pitcher.
The Dodgers will send their secondary ace Kenta Maeda to the mound Sunday looking for the sweep on the road. Los Angeles has won seven of his last eight starts and he has had great success in his brief career against the Brewers - 2-0 team win/loss, 12.1 innings pitched, 1.46 ERA. Maeda's last start at Miller Park was six innings of three-hit pitching in an eventual 8-1 Dodgers win over the Brewers.
The Brewers will send right-hander Zach Davies to the Miller Park mound this afternoon. Davies' numbers are a bit deceptive - what we can't forget is that he owns a 6.46 ERA, .397 opponent's on base percentage, and a 1.83 WHIP at home this season. The Brewers have lost Davies' last five starts at home against teams above .500, so when good teams come to town they will get to him...and the Dodgers are a good team.
Pick: Dodgers -145
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels (+105, 8.5)
On Saturday night, Angels' DH Albert Pujols became just the ninth player in Major League Baseball history to hit 600 home runs for his career. A truly great accomplishment that is a perfect letdown spot for a lazy Sunday afternoon in sunny Los Angeles.
The Angels haven't had much to celebrate over the last several seasons, so they definitely had a little "team dinner" (baseball code for getting messed up as a group) after last night's game and there will be plenty of tired eyes and slow bats in the lineup today.
The Twins will send their future ace Jose Berrios to the mound. Berrios has been great in his four start since being recalled in May with a 3-1 record, 2.70 ERA, and a 0.79 WHIP. It's also worth noting that his four starts this season were against very strong offensive ball clubs - the Indians, the Rockies, the Orioles, and the Astros. He won't see anything like that today against the Trout-less Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
The Angeles will counter with Ricky Nolasco today who is having a rough season and over his last three starts is 0-3 with a 7.36 ERA and a WHIP of 1.70. The young Twins should have plenty of fun smacking the ball around and getting out of town with a series win before heading up to Seattle to play the Mariners.
Pick: Twins -125
Yesterday's Picks: 2-0
Season To Date: 53-42-5
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Luis Severino, New York Yankees (4-2, 2.93 ERA, $27)
Louis Severino has been one of the key cogs to the New York Yankees' starting rotation over the first two months of the season. With Tanaka struggling, the Yanks are lucky they've had someone like Severino step up and fill that gap of solid starts.
Over his last three trips to the mound, Severino is 2-0 with a 0.93 ERA and a WHIP of 1.09. His command has been the key with only 5 walks to go along with 22 strikeouts over those last 19.1 innings of work.
Severino and the Yankees are in Toronto this afternoon and are road underdogs at +105.
Slumping: Amir Garrett, Cincinnati Reds (3-3, 6.00 ERA, $85)
Amir Garrett has had a couple of good starts for the Reds this season and overall his numbers are...meh.
But this is the "Slumping Starting Pitchers" section so we will focus on his last two starts. Two straight losses, 13 earned runs allowed over nine innings in those two starts (13.00 ERA), and six home runs allowed. It's very important to keep the ball in the ballpark, Amir.
Garrett and the Reds are home favorites against the visiting Atlanta Braves today at -120.
Sunday's Top Trends
* The Detroit Tigers are 21-5 in Justin Verlander's last 26 starts vs. White Sox. -200 today.
* The Philadelphia Phillies are 6-1 in Jeremy Hellickson's last 7 home starts. +105 vs. Giants.
* Over is 16-3-2 in the Houston Astros' last 21 Sunday games. Astros/Rangers Total: 9.5.
* The Minnesota Twins are 12-2 in their last 14 road games vs. a right-handed starter. -125 @ Angels.
* Over is 12-2 in the Tampa Bay Rays' last 14 road games. Rays/Mariners Total: 8.5.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There is a 60 percent chance of rain/thunderstorms at Comerica Park in Detroit today where the Tigers will entertain the Chicago White Sox. This game will also feature a 15 mile per hour wind blowing out to left field for most of the afternoon. The total is currently set at 9.5.
There is also a chance of a thunderstorm in Arlington, Texas where the Rangers are hosting the Astros. It's only a 50 percent chance of precipitation, but these Texas thunderstorms can sometimes be unpredictable. The total is 9.5 this afternoon.
There will also be notable hitter's winds blowing straight out to center field in Philadelphia for the Phillies and Giants (10-12 MPH, Total: 9), in Baltimore for the Orioles and Red Sox (10-12 MPH, Total: 8.5), and in Oakland for the A's and Nationals (15 MPH, Total: 8.5).
Ump Of The Day
Gary Cederstrom: Gary Cederstrom will be behind the plate today in Toronto where the Blue Jays will be hosting the New York Yankees. Cederstrom is favoring the Over this season at 8-3 and his last six games wearing the pads have cashed for Over bettors. This is a bit unusual for him as in his career he has shaded slightly toward the Under.
What isn't unusual for a Cederstrom officiated ball game is the home team winning. The home team has won 8 of his 11 games behind the plate this season and in 2016 the home team was a whopping 24-9 in games with him calling ball and strikes.
The total today in Toronto is currently 8 and the Jays are favorites at -115.
