Sunday 6/19/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Sunday
By Mike Dempsey

Boy, Saturday was a lonnnggg day.

My day started off early by getting shut out from having a 7-1 longshot at Royal Ascot, followed by enduring some very tough beats at Belmont Park, and then 12 hours later watching my top pick Eagle get caught out extremely wide in the Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) and having to settle for the runner up spot.

The toughest beat of the day came in the finale at Belmont Park. I was alive in the late double with my top two picks, and Maybry’s Conquest had a clear lead heading for home, with the late double coming back at $29.00.

The only problem was she got a right handed stick shortly before the wire and she veered into the rail, dropping jockey Luis Saez. I was already counting my money when she barreled into the temporary rail.

In the Stephen Foster, Eagle lingered near the back of the pack and came with a strong run but jockey Brian Hernandez was forced to take him six wide turning for home and he could not catch the loose on the lead gate to wire winner Bradester, who held on to win by a half-length.

Bradester was my third choice and the $2 exacta returned $95.80. Yeah, I didn’t box it, but I hope you did.

The exasperating day did end on a bright note as we hit the final stake of the evening, the Regret (G3), with the recommended $2 exacta paying $50.80 and the $1 trifecta returning $79.10.

My personal bankroll came out light despite working overtime, but we have a nine race card on tap at Belmont Park and it will be back to the grind today, hopefully with some better luck.


Here is today’s opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Clm $32,000 (1:30 ET)
#6 Winter Games 3-1
#4 Our Caravan 6-5
#3 Pass the Dice 5-1
#1 You Know I Know / 1a Banner Bill 7-2

Analysis: Winter Games dueled for the early lead and faded to finish a well beaten sixth last out in the Flat Out trying to get 1 3/8 miles. The gelding was a sharp gate to wire winner two back for a $32,000 tag in his first go off the claim by the Toscano barn. He is back in for a tag and the cut back in distance will suit him.

Our Caravan chased the early pace and weakened late to finish fourth versus Alw-2 optional claimers off a 2 1/2 month break. He drops into an easier spot here for the RRod barn that claimed him for $62,500 last fall. The price is going to be light, the barn has been quiet the past couple of months and this guy is 0 for 3 over the main track here, so proceed with caution.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 3,4,6
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 8 The Wild Applause (5:13 ET)
#10 Ava's Kitten 3-1
#8 Baciami Piccola 8-1
#11 Elegant Supermodel 10-1
#1 Summer Reading 8-1

Analysis: Ava's Kitten tracked the early pace and did not have much punch left late in a fifth place finish in the Edgewood (G3) last out at Keeneland. She came back quick after a game second in the Appalachian (G3) two back where she was beaten just 3/4 of a length. Catch a Glimpse came back to win the Penn Mile (G3) against the boys in her next outing on June 4. Our top pick won the Chelsea Flower over the turf here at today's distance.

Baciami Piccola beat our top pick in the Florida Oaks (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs in her U.S. debut. Last out she acted up at the gate in the Appalachian and did not fire her best. While Lynch is out his assistant Erin Cotterill is the named trainer. She comes back off a two month break here and worth a look if she goes off near her 8-1 morning line.

Wagering
WIN: #10 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 8,10 / 1,8,10,11
TRI: 8,10 / 1,8,10,11 / 1,4,8,10,11

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Monmouth Park:

MTH Race 10 The Pegasus G3 (5:24 ET)
#4 Unified 1-1
#7 Abiding Star 5-1
#1 Awesome Slew 6-1
#6 Donegal Moon 3-1

Analysis: Unified was a sharp winner of the Peter Pan (G2) last out over Governor Malibu, who came back to finish fourth in the Belmont (G1) in his next outing. The Jerkens trainee is perfect in three starts and his speed figs tower over the rest of the field here. The barn has been hot and this colt can take these gate to wire or can sit just off the pace if somebody else sent.

Abiding Star won five in a row including the Parx Derby but was exposed in the Preakness (G1) where he was bumped around in the early going and faded to finish a well beaten 11th. He is in a better spot here and figures to rebound with a much better effort, but would have to run a career top or our top pick would have to regress several lengths for him to get the win.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 6-5 or better.
EX: 4 / 1,6,7
TRI: 4 / 1,6,7 / 1,2,6,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R4: #10 Sassy Little Lila 15-1
R5: #10 Bruised Orange 8-1
R5: #3 Tent City 10-1
R6: #1 Apache Warrior 10-1
R6: #13 John Eddie 10-1
R8: #8 Baciami Piccola 8-1
R8: #11 Elegant Supermodel 10-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pocono Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 14 - Post: 11:24 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 72 - Purse:$12000 - 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER COLTS, STALLIONS & GELDINGS NW 1 EXT. PM RACE LIFETIME PA PREFERRED MOHEGAN SUN POCONO


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 8 OMG HANOVER 4/1


# 5 ARNOLD 7/2


# 1 CANTAB MY PHOTO 8/1


OMG HANOVER has a good shot to take this race. Worth careful consideration here based on the ratings in the speed rating department alone. Good for a win wager just off the outstanding prior class statistics. Have to like this nice horse. Many smart handicappers will recognize the amazing TrackMaster speed fig in the last gathering. Stacks up against any horse in this grouping. ARNOLD - Has competitive speed figs and definitely has to be thought of for a wager this time. This gelding has been doing work versus some of the most competitive horses in this field most recently. CANTAB MY PHOTO - Cannot put a finger on it, but strongly consider this gelding for a wager.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Tioga Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Post: 2:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 90 - Purse:$9000 - OPEN 2 OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE: $20,000


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 2 EASTEND EDDIE 3/1


# 8 BETTORSLUCKYSTREAK 10/1


# 3 STRATOCASTER 5/1


EASTEND EDDIE is the finest wager in this race. Hard to put finger on it, but love him for this one. Overall percentages look respectable. Can't throw him out of the picture. This race could be controlled by this gelding. One look at the avgerage speed fig will verify that. BETTORSLUCKYSTREAK - It's sometimes tricky to consider solely based on class, but this gelding has among the most favorable class statistics of the race. A better than expected ROI exists for race horses beginning from the 8 position at Tioga Downs. STRATOCASTER - This interesting entrant has been making trips to the winner's circle on a regular basis, look for him to make another appearance soon.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $53500 Class Rating: 83

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 13 VICTORY'S SECRET 12/1


# 4 ATHENA GRANDE 5/1


# 8 PEMBA 15/1


VICTORY'S SECRET looks formidable to best this group especially at such a decent 12/1. Her 80 average has this filly with among the most competitive speed figures for this race. Castanon has strong numbers that point to this filly to be a very solid contender. Garnered a very good Equibase Speed Fig last time out. ATHENA GRANDE - Conditioner boasts very strong win figures at this distance and surface. This handler has the best ROI in this field with entries racing at this distance and surface. PEMBA - Appears to be the type to be helped with second time Lasix here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $14100 Class Rating: 56

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 5 LOVEYOU LIKETHAT 7/5


# 2 FUNKY FLOWER 3/1


# 4 ALWAYS ALEX 3/1


I back LOVEYOU LIKETHAT here. Shows reliable Equibase Speed Figs on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group of horses. Will make a strong showing versus this field of horses. Has competitive Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. FUNKY FLOWER - With a nice class fig average of 62, has one of the strongest class advantages in this field. Strong gains have been scored by wagerers using this jockey and trainer twosome lately. ALWAYS ALEX - In fine fettle, and coming right back again today. Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group lately.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Woodbine - Race #2 - Post: 1:35pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $55,900 Class Rating: 84

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 TOWN CLASSIC (ML=2/1)


TOWN CLASSIC - This colt's last figure recorded on April 29th is tops in last race speed ratings. You have to consider the solid works of late.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 CONQUEST SKEDADDLE (ML=6/5), #2 CONQUEROR (ML=5/1), #1 DAZZLING DEPUTY (ML=8/1),

CONQUEST SKEDADDLE - Doesn't appear to be worth 6/5 in today's event. Pass on him this time. CONQUEROR - Speed ratings tell a narrative of deteriorating form. 5/1 odds isn't enough for this entrant when looking at the most recent showings. DAZZLING DEPUTY - Almost certainly won't make much of an impact today.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - TOWN CLASSIC - A pace study shows this animal should have the pace to wire this bunch.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#6 TOWN CLASSIC is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Arlington - Race #7 - Post: 4:27pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 92

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 LASSELL (ML=9/2)
#10 ARCH RIVALRY (ML=3/1)


LASSELL - Silva drops him down to this class. You don't need too much more handicapping info to believe this animal will be tough to beat at this level. Running 1 1/16 miles on the grass, you've have to look at horse's turf figures. This horse has the tops in the bunch. In this race here, this mount has registered the highest speed fig at the distance, so I have to give him the edge. I like the piece of information that this gelding's last speed rating, 90, is tops in this bunch. Looking like a potential overlay in today's race at morning line odds of 9/2. Finished fourth in last race at Arlington but was close at the wire. ARCH RIVALRY - He must like the track here. Shipped in to finish first on May 14th and he looks tough once again. The jockey and trainer combination have a profitable ROI when they join forces. Horses out of the barn of Reavis have been great on the grass. Should perform well right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 INSPIRE COURAGE (ML=5/1), #4 CHICORY BLUE (ML=6/1), #8 GHOST TO GHOST (ML=8/1),

INSPIRE COURAGE - This thoroughbred just hasn't looked ready of late. This colt recorded a speed fig in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's race. CHICORY BLUE - Recent lessening speed figs of 98/89/79 give an indication that this equine may be going off form. This gelding earned a speed figure in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's race. GHOST TO GHOST - This horse doesn't win here at Arlington. He needs a different venue to show his best. You figure that this animal is going to finish first just because he's always close. Just doesn't finish first frequently. Doubtful that the speed figure he registered on May 29th will be good enough in this clash.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - LASSELL - One can deduce, given he finished outside the top 3 at Arlington last out, that this horse did not like the off track. I expect a chance at a big improvement with better footing today.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #7 LASSELL on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [7,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #8 - BELMONT PARK - 5:13 PM EASTERN POST


The Wild Applause Stakes

8.0 FURLONGS TURF THREE YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

#10 AVA'S KITTEN
#11 ELEGANT SUPERMODEL
#9 TIN TYPE GAL
#1 SUMMER READING

Well folks ... few broodmares have had the influence of Glowing Tribute over the years. While her son, Kentucky Derby-Travers champ Sea Hero, gets most of the headlines, her legacy is also safe with her daughters. Wild Applause was among her best. The Rokeby product broke her maiden first out at Belmont Park, where she would return to win the G3 Comely. She also claimed victory in the G2 Diana for MacK Miller. Here in just the 3rd running of this stakes test, #10 AVA'S KITTEN has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of her last five starts, hitting the board in three of those outings, winning twice in this recent streak of racing consistency. Jockey Javier Castellano and Trainer Chad Brown send her to the post for the "Sunday Feature" ... they've hit the board with 59% of more than 200 entries saddled as a team to date. #11 ELEGANT SUPERMODEL, a rare German-bred entry racing in North America, and a 10-1 BOMB, has also produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of her respective last five outings, hitting the board in three, including back-to-back, "POWER RUN WINS" in her 4th and 5th races back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hawthorne Harness: Sunday 6/19 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 7 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: BIG EXPENSE (2nd)

Spot Play: SKYWAY BRENLIN (7th)


Race 1

(6) CRUIZE COMMANDER pacer finds a really weak bunch; short price. (7) MAKE IT WORK veteran pacer is better than he shows and could be one of few threats to the top choice. (4) R DUNESHINE looks to be in line for a much easier trip with a big driver change.

Race 2

(6) BIG EXPENSE looks to offer the better price of the contenders; fires early. (5) KING MUFASA looks to be in line for a nice pocket trip making him dangerous late. (4) MASTER OF EXCUSES six-year-old looks primed for another good effort third start back.

Race 3

(7) I SEE SUCCESS made up a lot of ground against better field last start. (6) FAT AND POE flashed some ability last year as a 2-year-old. (4) MEKKA was the driver's choice coming off a decent qualifier.

Race 4

(3) IMA SKYDANCER kicked home nicely in the qualifier and gets a nice starting post with options. (6) VITALITY showed some fight last start just tiring a bit late. (7) JDS WICKED TWISTER doesn't look the best on paper but gets sent out for connections with some nice recent winners at the track.

Race 5

In a wide open and evenly matched race of first time starters, (2) RAZZLE DAZZLEME has two solid qualifiers under his belt. (6) AMARETTIGONE flashed a good late kick in the qualifier and picks up the top driver. (5) SAN ANTONIO ROSE was the driver's choice of three; threat.

Race 6

(1) RASCAL FLATTER will be tough to beat with any effort like his last three. (6) HOLY MCMOSES is three for his last one hundred; command a price. (3) JO JO SPUR has had two poor performances in a row but finds a really suspect bunch.

Race 7

(4) SKYWAY BRENLIN pacer makes his first start off a long layoff but was super in the qualifier. (8) CAPELO was the top driver's choice coming a big win at this level. (5) IM SO HANDSOME drops down in competition; threat.

Race 8

(3) KICKINITWITHKOHLER finally gets an inside starting post and looks to offer a big price. (4) LITTLE MS CHRISSY former 2-year-old IL champ is the horse to beat but has a low percentage pilot. (7) HALL PASS HELEN trotting mare gets sent out for capable connections.

Race 9

(9) DUNESIDE SPORT sophomore pacer has been tremendous in his last two. (5) SOUPBEANS ERNIE pacer should have room to improve third start back. (1) SAGEBRUSH SONNY should have had more last week against weaker; use underneath.

Race 10

(7) ROCKNROLL CRYSTAL raced much better second start back last week. The 4-year-old mare finds a really weak field. (8) BEACH SAND has just been racing evenly but drops down a notch; threat. (2) STEPH'S PLACE mare has also been facing tougher and looks to be in line for a nice ground saving trip up close.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Arlington (2nd) Caitlins Road, 5-1
(3rd) Gallant Eagle, 8-1


Belmont Park (4th) Complicated, 5-1
(8th) Summer Reading, 8-1


Belterra Park (3rd) Master Landon, 9-2
(6th) Glad Cat, 8-1


Canterbury (4th) Mija Toni, 8-1
(11th) Annie's Pleasures, 7-2


Churchill Downs (1st) Prado Dash, 3-1
(7th) Jogget, 5-1


Emerald Downs (4th) Dudley Studley, 7-2
(7th) Beeline Express, 7-2


Fort Erie (4th) Charlies Mist, 5-1
(6th) Fighting Chris, 3-1


Gulfstream Park (3rd) Southern Barbecue, 4-1
(8th) Killer Bird, 8-1


Hastings (4th) Supernova Sally, 3-1
(8th) War On, 7-2


Lone Star Park (1st) Bim Bam, 7-2
(9th) Marcy, 8-1


Monmouth Park (7th) Sweet Butterfly, 7-2
(11th) Cassini, 6-1


Mountaineer (1st) Gone Wild, 8-1
(5th) Vantastic Magic, 7-2


Parx Racing (5th) Downdraft, 7-2
(6th) Street Invader, 5-1


Pimlico (2nd) Gem Twist, 6-1
(5th) No Knock Raid, 7-2


Pleasanton (6th) Foreverinsummer, 9-2
(7th) Knoll, 4-1


Prairie Meadows (1st) Square Bale, 4-1
(9th) Langs Legend, 5-1


Presque Isle Downs (3rd) Downey, 9-2
(6th) Thunder's Rollin'


Santa Anita (1st) New Summit, 7-2
(4th) Holiday Movie, 7-2


Woodbine (5th) Wreckhouse, 5-1
(8th) Ticking Katie, 8-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

June Pitchers Report
By Marc Lawrence

You know the saying, “May flowers bring June showers.”

For Major League Baseball pitchers hurling during the month of June, showers are hopefully not in their immediate plans. Instead, it’s the hope of all MLB starting pitchers to stay around long enough in their starts to avoid having to clean up and go home early.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team-starts over the course of the last three seasons during the month of June. On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in June, winning 33% percent or less of their team-start efforts.

To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each June over the last three years. And for your convenience alongside each record we break down each pitcher’s greatest success or greatest failure rate either home (H) or away (A) within his good or bad month.

Note: * designates a categorical repeat appearance by this pitcher, maintaining status quo from last season’s June list.


GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Arrieta, Jake - 8-4 (6-2 A)

Only Clayton Kershaw has been in Arrieta's stratosphere since 2015. The right-hander is in the right organization which has allowed his abundant talents to flourish and this season opposing batters are hitting a mere .168 against him. His effortless delivery and mid-90's fastball causes a lot of swings and misses as does his breaking pitches.

Cole, Gerrit - 10-2 (6-0 A)

Cole is now the ace of the Pittsburgh staff and expertly commands a two and four-seam fastball in the mid to upper 90's which he can sink or have riding action. After a sluggish start to season, his ERA is down to close to 2.50 and expect him to have another fine month. Note: Cole’s numbers above reflect his career team mark during June.

*Colon, Bartolo - 10-5 (7-0 H)

The 43-year old right-hander just keeps churning along on staff that is very talented and youthful. Colon knows how and where to spot his fastball, which he tosses 70 or more percent of the time and blends in a quick slider that has excellent depth. The fact is Colon understands his craft and wins.

Lackey, John - 11-5 (6-1 H)

Remember for years no pitcher in his right mind would want to pitch at Wrigley Field, now they line up for the chance. Being a talented young team helps and Lackey is the right fit, with fastball he keeps low in the zone and sinker opposing hitters cannot elevate. Through two months, the batter's Lackey has faced are at a lowly .209 batting average and his WHIP is sick 0.97.

Sanchez, Anibal - 9-4 (8-3 H)

The Detroit hurler has gotten off to a rugged start with ERA over 6 as June began. Sanchez's problems revolve around lack of pitch placement, not even having 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio and giving up more than a hit an inning. Of the 58 hits allowed, 11 have left the yard and if the Tigers are going to be contenders in the AL Central, Sanchez will have to throw like previous June's.

*Scherzer, Max - 11-4 (6-2 A)

If you research Mad Max's numbers, many are at or below career norm, yet he begins this month with an ERA over 4. The problem is too many pitches right down the middle, which is why he on pace to give up 45 home runs (15 thru May). If Scherzer solves this, he will have a great rest of the year.

Tillman, Chris - 11-3 (4-1 A)

After an off year in 2015, the Orioles righty has come back in a big way. When he's at his best like he has been this year, Tillman works his low 90's heater at the knees on both sides of the dish and his curve and changeup have sharp downward motion. He starts this month with hitters at .203 batting average versus his tosses.

Volquez, Edinson - 11-5 (7-1 A)

The Royals right-hander is doing what he does best, as in nine of his 11 starts for Kansas City he has induced double digit groundball outs. Volquez is still thought to be a power pitcher and gets numerous weak swings with tilted curve and deluxe changeup he will throw on any count.

*Zimmermann, Jordan - 12-5 (8-3 H)

After an unbelievable start, Zimmermann has drifted back to the previous career numbers. He pulled a groin late last month, but is expected to make start on June 3rd and continue from that point. His strengths include four pitches he trusts to throw for strikes and he has shown greater durability thus far in the AL.


BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Miller, Shelby - 6-12 (2-6 A)

After disastrous start with Arizona, having ERA over 7, maybe a trip to the DL with bad finger on throwing hand will settle Miller down, who looks like he is trying to throw a no-hitter on every pitch and is getting hammered. The talent has always been in place, just not the execution as this record shows. Note: Miller’s numbers above reflect his career team mark during June.

Verlander, Justin - 4-10 (2-5 H)

No longer equipped with high 90's fastball, Verlander tends to give up runs in bunches these days. He can be sailing along for three to five innings and then give up three or four runs in single inning. Without the necessary secondary pitches, he's become easier to hit a third time through the lineup.

Weaver, Jered - 5-10 (1-6 A)

It is sometimes tough to watch former aces who were among the best in the game, as their stuff is in decline and they are not close to what they used to be. This is the case of Weaver, whose fastball barely reaches 85 MPH, which makes his breaking ball and assortment of change-ups less effective. It is no accident at this juncture hitters are clocking him for .311 BA.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Betting Big Favorites'

It's a common held belief that betting big favorites in baseball can turn out to be extremely costly over the long haul, especially favorites of -$200 or more. Many baseball bettors have this theory ingrained in their heads and usually bypass those games when looking at the schedule. Being old school, must confess to being amoung them, untill a recent study revealed surprising results.

Between 2010 and 2015, betting nothing but favorites of -$200 or greater resulted in a 71.3% win rate (697-281) but more importanly yielded a +$4619 profit for a 4.7% return on investment. If the big favorite was off a loss, they were 206-85 in their next game good for $1,606 in profit, 5.5% return on money risked.

Obviously, wildly betting each and every favorite of -$200 or more demands a huge investment in order to ride the ups/downs that occur through out a season. That in mind, focusing on fewer plays to consider with less total money at risk was in order. To that end, the analysis revealed the best strategy was to concentrate strickly on a big road favorites. In this case, the road favorites won at a 75.9% clip stuffing +$1921 into betting accounts for an enourmous 23.1% return on investment.

So much for history, but what about the current 2016 campaign. Well, heading into Tuesday June 15th action the trend is alive and well. Betting nothing but favorites of -$200 or more has returned 12.2% on money risked (+$921) split between +$542 for homies (44-17), +$379 for teams wearing road jersey's (10-3). Once again, focusing sticking on road favorites produced a whopping 29.2% return.

While there's no guarantee big favorites will continue to perform the rest of the way, it's something that bettors can't afford to overlook down the stretch.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NL Value Starters
By Joe Nelson

There are several months to go but it is easy to be excited about the National League playoffs given how stacked the league is with power arms and elite starting pitching.

The American League All Star team will have an unenviable task next month as Terry Collins will be able to trot out a truly elite starter in every inning if he wants to.

As the separation grows between the contenders and the rest of the league the cost to support the elite starters on quality teams will continue to grow.

Ultimately identifying quality starters at lower price points will be the key to having success in the National League given how steep the prices will be on the starters for the Cubs, Nationals, Giants, and Mets, as well obviously Clayton Kershaw.

There are several National League starters that project a few tiers down that still can offer some promising potential on many nights while falling in line at costs that are much easier to stomach in most matchups.

Here are a handful of possible value starters in the NL for the coming weeks.

Jerad Eickhoff (Philadelphia Phillies): Aaron Nola was the dominant starter for the Phillies in the first two months of the season and remains the highest priced starter in that rotation. It was Eickhoff that wowed in eight starts last season however and after some ups-and-downs in April he is starting to put it together again in 2016. Eickhoff is almost 26 and he won’t be on a sharp innings watch like Nola or Vincent Velasquez in the Phillies rotation and he has allowed three or fewer runs in seven of his last eight starts. Eickhoff owns a better than 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and despite his 4-8 record he has picked up a win in three of his last five starts after starting the season 1-6. His ERA is just 3.40 with a FIP that is only slightly higher and his walks and home runs allowed have been kept in check of late. With a limited offense the Phillies are sometimes tough to support but the team has still won 30 games with similar home and road results and Eickhoff might be the best pitcher to support for the Phillies with the ‘under’ also looking playable in many of his upcoming starts.

Michael Wacha (St. Louis Cardinals): Wacha looked like he was on the superstar fast track starring for the Cardinals late in the 2013 season and in the playoffs. Injuries derailed him in 2014 but he had a fine 2015 season for the 100-win Cardinals. Wacha has already taken as many losses as he did last season at 2-7 but his FIP is 3.51, significantly lower than his season FIP was in 2015 when he wound up 17-7 with a 3.38 ERA. The Cardinals had a slow start to the season but the team is rounding back into form and while catching the Cubs might be a challenge in the NL Central this certainly looks like a team poised to claim a wild card spot. Wacha’s marginal numbers will lead to reasonable pricing to support him even though he is still capable of a dominant outing. The schedule has worked against Wacha as since mid-May his starts have come against the Rockies, Cubs, Nationals, Giants, Pirates, and Rangers, taking on some of baseball’s best offensive teams. Even so he has a quality start in three of his last four outings and he offers great promise the rest of the season at discounted pricing compared to the lines he drew last season.

Bartolo Colon (New York Mets): Backing Noah Syndergaard or Steven Matz is certainly more comforting but Colon’s prices are sharply discounted on the following nights for the Mets. The 43-year old is occasionally the butt of jokes but there is nothing funny about the success he is having against NL hitters. Colon has delivered five consecutive starts with two or fewer runs allowed and his ERA is down to just 3.01. He owns a better than 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and while he gives up a lot of hits, he usually escapes with limited damage and he has only allowed two home runs over his last six starts. The Mets are 8-4 in his last 12 starts and with New York possessing an unreliable offense Colon can be supported at a much more reasonable price than the rest of the rotation, avoiding the risk of laying -200 or greater behind an offense that is often sweating out one-run games.

Jake Peavy (San Francisco Giants): While it seems like Jake Peavy has been around forever he is only freshly 35 and could have a few solid years remaining in his career. Peavy is 3-6 with a 5.83 ERA but after a rocky start to the season he has been pretty reliable in recent weeks. His season FIP is a much more respectable 4.16 and his ERA is only 1.82 over his last four starts. Peavy is still getting nearly seven strikeouts per nine innings and after allowing six home runs in his first six starts of the season he has allowed just two in his last seven starts. Everyone would prefer to support Madison Bumgarner or Johnny Cueto but Peavy might be the value option to support a Giants squad that scores nearly 4.5 runs per game despite playing in a pitching-friendly ballpark, while also playing strong defense and generally looking like one of the best teams in baseball.

Zach Davies (Milwaukee Brewers): Davies hasn’t been considered a high ceiling prospect and with his small frame he was only a 26th round draft pick by the Orioles in 2011. Davies is only 23 however and after a shaky April he has emerged as a reliable option in the Milwaukee rotation. Davies has a K/9 of 8.3 over the last month while turning in four straight quality starts. Davies has actually allowed six or fewer hits in 10 consecutive starts and while he has been a little fortunate with a low .262 BABIP on the season his command has been strong with a low walk rate. Davies seems to have solved Miller Park which typically is a tough venue for pitchers as he owns a 2.88 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in eight home starts with the Brewers winning five of those games. While Milwaukee isn’t likely to be a playoff contender the Brewers have a winning home record and Milwaukee has played above .500 ball since the calendar turned to May as this has been a competitive team that is still frequently getting solid underdog pricing

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB roundup: Lincecum wins in return to majors
By The Sports Xchange

OAKLAND, Calif. -- Tim Lincecum made a triumphant return to the major leagues Saturday in his debut for the Los Angeles Angels, pitching six strong innings in a 7-1 victory over the Oakland Athletics.
Lincecum, who won back-to-back Cy Young award with San Francisco in 2008-09, gave up one run on four hits, struck out two, walked two and threw 98 pitches.
Lincecum appeared in a big league game for the first time since last June 27, when he started against Colorado in his ninth and final year with the Giants.
The Oakland Coliseum crowd of 25,078 included dozens of fans wearing San Francisco jerseys with Lincecum's name and No. 55 on the back.
When Lincecum took the mound in the bottom of the first inning, he received a loud ovation with many of the fans standing. He received loud ovations after completing each of his six innings.
Mike Trout went 2-for-5 with a solo home run, a double and three RBIs for Los Angeles.

Indians 13, White Sox 2
CLEVELAND -- Tyler Naquin had three hits, including a home run, and four RBIs, and Mike Napoli and Juan Uribe also homered as Cleveland routed James Shields and Chicago.
The Indians, who have won the first two games of the series, made quick work of Shields (0-2), racing out to an 8-0 lead after two innings. In his last four starts, which includes his final one in San Diego and first three with the White Sox, Shields is 0-3 with a 24.62 ERA.
The offensive outburst was more than enough for Danny Salazar (8-3), who came into the game leading the American League with a 2.19 ERA. Salazar pitched 6 2/3 innings, giving up two runs and five hits, with seven strikeouts and one walk.

Cubs 4, Pirates 3
CHICAGO -- Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and David Ross each hit home runs as Chicago rallied past Pittsburgh.
Rizzo finished 2-for-3 with a double, a home run and a walk as the Cubs overcame a pair of deficits. Chicago (46-20) improved to a season-best 26 games over .500.
Jordy Mercer went 2-for-4 with a double, a home run and two RBIs for the Pirates. Pittsburgh lost for the ninth time in the past 10 games and fell to 1-7 against the Cubs this season.
Left-hander Jon Lester (9-3) battled through a rocky first inning to win his fifth straight decision. He gave up three runs on seven hits in six innings. He walked three, all in the first inning, and struck out seven.

Royals 16, Tigers 5
KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- Kendrys Morales and Whit Merrifield combined to drive in nine runs as Kansas City routed Detroit.
Merrifield had three hits and drove in four runs.
Morales had four hits and drove in five runs. Morales' two-run double in the seventh scored Eric Hosmer and Salvador Perez, who was walked intentionally.
Tigers utility player Andrew Romine pitched in the eighth when the Royals scored five runs, getting the final two outs.
Right-hander Edinson Volquez (7-6) picked up the victory, allowing five runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings.

Rangers 4, Cardinals 3
ST. LOUIS -- Shin-Soo Choo's bases-loaded walk with one out in the ninth inning tied the score and Ian Desmond's sacrifice fly delivered the winning run as Texas erased a 3-0 deficit with two outs in the eighth to win its fifth straight game.
The Rangers upped their record to 7-2 on their 10-game road trip while winning their club-record ninth straight series.
The Cardinals dropped their fourth straight game -- all at home to American League West teams -- and lost for the first time in 34 games when leading after eight innings. Closer Trevor Rosenthal (2-2), who faced three batters and retired none in the ninth, absorbed the loss.

Giants 6, Rays 4
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. -- Joe Panik hit a three-run homer with two out in the ninth inning as San Francisco earned a comeback victory.
Panik also drove in a run when he took a pitch to the helmet with the bases loaded in the fifth.
Trevor Brown and Gregor Blanco, eighth and ninth in the batting order, singled in the ninth against Tampa Bay closer Alex Colome (1-2), who came in with a 0.89 ERA. With two outs and the score tied, Panik hit the game-winning home run.
Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria, Brad Miller and Logan Morrison homered for the Rays, who lost their third straight game.

Orioles 4, Blue Jays 2
BALTIMORE -- Jonathan Schoop homered and scored three runs and Yovani Gallardo threw five solid innings in his return from the disabled list as Baltimore held on to first American League East with a victory over Toronto.
Gallardo (2-1) was out for nearly two months with right shoulder biceps tendinitis and gave the Orioles five innings. He allowed two runs and five hits with five strikeouts and four walks in his first start since April 22.
Baltimore's bullpen pitched four shutout innings -- two from Mychal Givens, one from Brad Brach and closer Zach Britton posted his 21st save in 21 chances.

Padres 7, Nationals 3
SAN DIEGO -- Jon Jay raced home on a bases-loaded throwing error by pitcher Felipe Rivero for the tiebreaking run in a six-run eighth inning as San Diego rallied from a 3-1 deficit.
Wil Myers, who homered in the first inning, tied the game with a two-run double in the eighth before Rivero fielded a bases-loaded comebacker hit by Brett Wallace and threw wild to the plate allowing Jay to score the go-ahead run.
Reliever Blake Treinen issued a bases-loaded walk to Melvin Upton Jr. and pinch-hitter Yangervis Solarte flared a two-run, opposite-field single to left to give the Padres six runs in the inning before the Nationals had retired a hitter.

Red Sox 6, Mariners 2
BOSTON -- Xander Bogaerts belted a tiebreaking two-run homer in the fifth inning and Rick Porcello tip-toed through six innings as Boston evened the three-game series with Seattle.
The Mariners put at least the first two runners on base in each of the first three innings against Porcello but could only scratch out two runs.
Seattle's Adrian Sampson, making his major-league debut, retired eight straight batters before Jackie Bradley Jr.'s two-out solo home run in the fourth got the Red Sox on the scoreboard.
Every batter in Boston's lineup had at least one hit except for Pedroia, who went 0-for-4 and grounded into two double plays. Craig Kimbrel threw a perfect ninth for his 16th save of the season.

Dodgers 10, Brewers 6
LOS ANGELES -- Justin Turner homered for the second night in a row and Los Angeles rallied to defeat Milwaukee.
Howie Kendrick and Joc Pederson also went deep for the Dodgers. Pederson delivered a solo shot in the sixth for the Dodgers, who finished with 14 hits to 11 for the Brewers.
Neither starter lasted three innings. Mike Bolsinger of the Dodgers served up five runs on nine hits with two walks and a strikeout in 2 2/3 innings. His counterpart Chase Anderson (4-7) was tagged for seven runs on six hits with three walks and three strikeouts in 2 1/3 innings.
Chris Hatcher (4-3) worked 2 1/3 innings of scoreless relief and delivered his first major league - an RBI single that capped a six-run third.

Astros 5, Reds 4 (11 innings)
HOUSTON -- George Springer delivered a walk-off RBI single as Houston improved to 7-4 in extra-inning games this season after blowing a two-run lead in the ninth.
Cincinnati was down to its final out before Adam Duvall drove a 2-and-2 pitch from Ken Giles to right-center field, putting it a few rows up for a two-run home run to extend the game. It was Duvall's 20th home run of the season and raised his RBI count to 48.
In the seventh inning, Danny Worth doubled before Evan Gattis snapped an 0-for-22 slump by crushing a pitch from Cody Reed to left field for a two-run home run, giving the Astros a 4-2 lead.

Braves 4, Mets 3
NEW YORK -- Ender Inciarte created the go-ahead run in the eighth inning and Atlanta came back from an early three-run deficit.
The Braves (22-46) tied a season high with their fourth straight win. The Mets (36-31) have lost five of seven.
With the score tied 3-3, Inciarte opened the eighth by doubling. After an intentional walk to Freddie Freeman, Jeff Francouer lined out to right fielder Curtis Granderson, who relaxed and held the ball upon seeing Inciarte heading back to second. But upon touching second, Inciarte dashed for third and beat the throw.
Nick Markakis struck out for the second out, but Reed uncorked a wild pitch with Tyler Flowers at the plate. Inciarte broke for home even though the ball was only got a few feet behind Rene Rivera. The Mets catcher retrieved the ball and tried to beat Inciarte to the plate but could not apply the tag in time.

Marlins 9, Rockies 6
MIAMI -- J.T. Realmuto hit a go-ahead, three-run homer while tying a career high four hits as Miami outslugged Colorado.
Justin Bour added a two-run homer as the Marlins recorded 17 hits and 6 2/3 innings of scoreless relief in defeating the Rockies for the second straight day. Giancarlo Stanton raised his average to .210 with three hits -- his first such contest since April 24 for Miami.
The Marlins' Wei-Yin Chen lasted 2 1/3 innings -- the shortest start of his 131-game career. He allowed seven hits, two walks and a season-high six runs, raising his ERA to 5.22 -- the worst among Miami starters.

Yankees 7, Twins 6
MINNEAPOLIS -- Alex Rodriguez hit a two-run home run in the seventh inning and Carlos Beltran added a two-run blast in the eighth as New York scored all its runs in the final innings to defeat Minnesota.
The Twins built a 4-0 lead off Yankees starter Michael Pineda before watching their advantage evaporate on two swings of the bat.
Beltran's homer capped a three-hit game by from the veteran outfielder, who has been red-hot since the beginning of the month. He is hitting .364 in 15 games since June 1, with six homers and 17 RBIs. His 18 home runs and 48 RBIs this season lead the Yankees.

Diamondbacks 4, Phillies 1
Zack Greinke pitched eight strong innings and hot-hitting Paul Goldschmidt slugged a two-run homer to lead Arizona past Philadelphia.
Odubel Herrera's first-inning home run was the only real blemish on Greinke's outing as the three-time All-Star won his seventh consecutive start, improving his record to 10-3 on the season while his ERA dropped to 3.54. He is with a 0.87 ERA in four June starts.
The blast over the left-center railing, Goldschmidt's 14th of the season, capped off a three-run fifth inning that provided all the offense the Diamondbacks needed. The slugging first baseman finished 2-for-5 to extend his hitting streak to 12 games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Braves (22-46) at Mets (36-31)

Game: 3
Venue: Citi Field
Date: June 19, 2016 1:10 PM EDT

NEW YORK -- Completing an unlikely series sweep Sunday isn't going to change the Atlanta Braves' 2016 fortunes. But a third straight win over the New York Mets could put the defending National League champions in a gaping hole.

The Braves will look to sweep the Mets when the two National League East rivals face each other at Citi Field.

Atlanta stormed back from a three-run deficit on Saturday night for a stunning 4-3 win. Center fielder Ender Inciarte created the tiebreaking run in the eighth when he doubled, took third on a lineout by Jeff Francoeur after Mets right fielder Curtis Granderson casually tossed the ball to the infield and scored on a wild pitch 10 feet behind catcher Rene Rivera.

The win was the fourth straight for the Braves (22-46), tying a season high set under former manager Fredi Gonzalez from April 15 to April 19.

"We've been beat up pretty good this year," Francoeur said. "I think to see us right back and see what we're doing here says a lot about our team."

The injury-plagued Mets (36-31), meanwhile, are reeling after losing five of their last seven, all of which came against the sub-.500 Braves, Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers.

New York, which has three starting position players on the disabled list (first baseman Lucas Duda, third baseman David Wright and catcher Travis d'Arnaud), remained six games behind the Washington Nationals in the NL East after the Nationals blew a late lead Saturday night and lost to the San Diego Padres 7-3.

"This is a tough one, with what's going on right now," Mets manager Terry Collins said. "With a bunch of guys down, you can't lose these kind of games. You've got to win these games. You've got to win these games that you have opportunities to win. When times are tough, these are big games to win."

Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom, pitching on his 28th birthday and on Father's Day for the first time as a Dad, will oppose Braves right-hander Julio Teheran.

DeGrom, whose son Jaxson was born in April, will be looking for his first win since April 30. He is 0-3 in his last eight starts despite a 3.47 ERA.

Teheran enters just 2-7 despite a 2.93 ERA. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his last 11 starts, a stretch in which he is 2-5 with a 2.13 ERA.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Rockies (32-35) at Marlins (36-32)

Game: 3
Venue: Marlins Park
Date: June 19, 2016 1:10 PM EDT

MIAMI -- Jose Fernandez didn't want to skip his scheduled start this past Friday, but there might be an added benefit to him now.

Fernandez, who will start Tuesday against the Atlanta Braves, plans to work the All-Star Game on July 12 in San Diego, assuming he is selected.

"Because of this (skipped start), it lets me pitch in the All-Star Game," said Fernandez, who is 9-3 with a 2.57 ERA. "It would be an honor if they chose me as an All-Star."

Fernandez already has competed in one All-Star Game, as a rookie in 2013, when he pitched a perfect inning, striking out two.

The plan for Fernandez this year is for him to pitch 180 innings. He has worked 80 innings so far, striking out 118, which is quite impressive for a pitcher who is just 25 months removed from elbow surgery.

If Fernandez does make the All-Star Game, he would return to the Marlins' rotation on July 19 at the Philadelphia Phillies. That would slot him fifth in the order as the Marlins continue to look for ways to minimize his innings after Tommy John surgery.

That's the prudent thing to do for Fernandez, but the Marlins no doubt long for the day -- probably in 2017 -- when there are no more innings limits for their ace.

After all, the Marlins, who have won their first two games in their four-game series against the Colorado Rockies -- Game 3 is on Sunday afternoon -- don't have much in the rotation beyond Fernandez.

Wei-Yin Chen, signed to a five-year, $80 million contract this past winter, was hit hard Saturday and has a 5.22 ERA -- worst among Miami starters.

Justin Nicolino (5.17 ERA) is -- like Chen -- a soft-tosser who gets hit hard regularly.

The other two Miami starters -- Adam Conley (3.94 ERA) and Tom Koehler (4.25 ERA) -- have been wildly inconsistent. In general, though, they have pitched to the level of fourth and fifth starters.

That leaves a gaping hole with the No. 2 and No. 3 starters.

Koehler (5-6) has been fortunate in that he ranks 18th among NL starters this season in terms of most run support. The Marlins are averaging 5.50 runs per Koehler start, and he figures to need that Sunday against the Rockies' potent offense.

On the mound, Colorado will start lightly tested left-hander Tyler Anderson, who is 0-0 with a 1.42 ERA. This will mark Anderson's second career start and his first on the road.

The Marlins (36-32) have silenced the Rockies (32-35), who arrived in Miami having won four games in a row and eight of 10.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: White Sox (33-35) at Indians (37-30)

Game: 3
Venue: Progressive Field
Date: June 19, 2016 1:10 PM EDT

CLEVELAND -- The rejuvenated Cleveland Indians will conclude their three-game series with the Chicago White Sox on Sunday afternoon at Progressive Field. The series has the feel of two ships passing in the night.

The first-place Indians are hot again, having won the first two games of the series, including a 13-2 blowout win on Saturday. The Indians came home having lost four of the last five games on a 10-game homestand.

But returning to the friendly confines of Progressive Field, and playing an opponent from the Central Division have combined to help get the Indians winning again. The Indians are 20-10 versus Central Division opponents, the best division record of any team in the division.

Sunday's game could be a challenge for the Indians, however, because their starting pitcher will be Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 3.40), who has struggled during his career against the White Sox. In 13 career starts against Chicago, Carrasco is 3-8 with a 5.90 ERA.

The Indians' offense continues to get a boost from rookie center fielder Tyler Naquin, who in the win Saturday night came within a double of hitting for the cycle. Naquin 3-for-4 with two walks, a single, a triple, a home run and four RBI.

Naquin started the season with the Indians, was demoted to Triple-A Columbus, and then recalled. With the Indians, he is hitting .320 with five home runs and 14 RBI.

"He looks more relaxed, especially at the plate," Cleveland manager Terry Francona said. "He took some good swings tonight and did some damage."

The White Sox, meanwhile, are struggling again, having lost 17 of their last 23 games, dating to May 23. No White Sox player personifies the team's struggles more than James Shields, who was shelled again Saturday night.

Despite some horrific numbers, Shields will start again in five days, Thursday against the Boston Red Sox.

Saturday night in Cleveland, Shields made his third start for the White Sox since being acquired in a trade with San Diego. It did not go well. After his first 11 pitches, Shields was losing 4-0. He only retired five of the 15 batters he faced, giving up eight runs in 1 2/3 innings.

In his last four start Shields is 0-3 with a 24.62 ERA. Manager Robin Ventura, however, said no consideration is being given to removing Shields from the rotation.

"He's got to figure this thing out," Ventura said. "It's not like he's walking guys all over the place. His velocity isn't what it was five years ago, but he still has the stuff to get people out."

In the meantime, the White Sox will send left-hander Carlos Rodon (2-6, 4.28) to the mound on Sunday as they try to salvage the final game of the series. Rodon appears to match up well with Cleveland. In five career appearances, four of them starts, against the Indians Rodon is 3-0 with a 1.52 ERA.

Whether White Sox outfielder Melky Cabrera plays Sunday remains to be seen. He was removed from Saturday's game in the fourth inning after injuring his wrist while trying to make a diving catch in left field. Ventura said X-rays on the wrist were negative and that Cabrera's status is day-to-day.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Giants (43-26) at Rays (31-35)

Game: 3
Venue: Tropicana Field
Date: June 19, 2016 1:10 PM EDT

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. -- There are many differences between the San Francisco Giants and Tampa Bay Rays at this point in the season, but as the Giants look to close out a three-game sweep on Sunday at Tropicana Field, a reliable bullpen is a big part of their seven-game winning streak.

On Saturday, five Giants relievers combined for 4 1/3 innings of relief after spot starter Albert Suarez didn't make it through the fifth.

They didn't give up a run until two out in the ninth on a harmless solo home run in a 6-4 win, having kept San Francisco in the game until Joe Panik's three-run home run in the ninth.

"The 'pen did a great job," Giants manager Bruce Bochy said. "Lefties got big outs. Terrific job to come back."

This comes with closer Santiago Casilla out this weekend on paternity leave.

Bochy used situational matchups, with Steven Okert getting the last out in the fifth, Josh Osich the last out in the seventh. Cory Gearrin stepped in for the ninth, giving up the home run but ultimately getting his second save.

All this came after Suarez -- who signed with the Rays in 2006 and was in their organization for eight years before being released in 2014 -- finally got to pitch at Tropicana Field, helping his team to a win.

"Obviously when I was playing for them, I never thought I was going to pitch against them, but baseball has change," he said.

The Rays, reeling to their third straight home loss after a strong stretch where they had won nine of 11 games, could use a change from their bullpen's rough luck of late.

Even the most reliable of relievers has struggled.

On Saturday, Alex Colome, who had lowered his ERA to 0.90, couldn't hold a tie game in the ninth. He gave up singles to the bottom of the Giants' order in Trevor Brown and Gregor Blanco, then served up a three-run home run to Panik, allowing as many runs as he had all season before Saturday.

"He's been outstanding," manager Kevin Cash said of Colome. "He got burnt by a mistake and that is what it is. Hopefully he's pitching for us again tomorrow because if he is, that means we're winning the game."

Another reliable setup arm, Erasmo Ramirez blew a save in the eighth, giving up a run on a two-out hit by Brandon Crawford to tie the game.

"We got to two guys we've really leaned on and relied upon, and it just wasn't meant to be today," Cash said.

The Rays had been 21-2 when leading after seven innings, and lost when hitting four home runs for the first time since 2014.

"It's only a bad day," Colome said. "It's only one bad pitch. I don't have an excuse. I'm ready for tomorrow. It's only one bad day. We're human."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Diamondbacks (31-39) at Phillies (30-39)

Game: 3
Venue: Citizens Bank Park
Date: June 19, 2016 1:35 PM EDT

PHILADELPHIA -- As his team struggles to recapture any of the moment it had earlier in the season, manager Pete Mackanin of the Philadelphia Phillies is getting a little desperate.

In losing nine of their last 10 games, the Phillies have failed to score five runs or more eight times.

Mackanin is doing whatever he can to fix the problem, including starting Cody Asche atop the lineup for the first time in the outfielder's career on Saturday, moving outfielder Odubel Herrera into the second slot and pushing third baseman Maikel Franco down into the six-hole.

None of it worked, as the Phillies managed only four hits in a 4-1 loss to Arizona, their 22nd loss in the last 28 games.

"I've got a few tricks left in my bag, but I'm running out," Mackanin said. "We just have to keep working hard. We can't give up, we just have to bear down and go after it. There's too many games left to panic or get concerned."

With the offense struggling for largely the entire season -- the Phillies' were hitting only .228 heading into Saturday's game -- they had relied heavily on the pitching staff.

But now a young rotation that had been strong in April and May has suddenly had serious trouble getting outs and keeping the ball in the park.

"I've been asked before ... I always said I don't think (the hitting is affecting the pitching), I haven't seen it, but actually that might be the case," Mackanin said.

"These guys don't have that solid, No. 1 type starter to really carry them and emulate. So I think they're all kind of in their own way trying to figure it out without anybody to look up to; likewise, the hitting."

To try to stem the bleeding on Sunday, Mackanin has to turn to the least-experienced pitcher on the staff: rookie Zach Eflin, with a grand total of one Major League start to his name.

It was a rocky start indeed, as Eflin gave up nine runs (eight earned) on nine hits in an 11-3 loss to Toronto on Tuesday.

Mackanin said his message for Eflin's next start is simple: command your pitches.

"He was making his pitches down in the minor leagues, and if he just can continue to do that, and not make mistakes, he's got a good chance to be successful," the manager said.

"I think he needs to pitch inside, use both sides of the plate and change speeds."0

The Phillies' next pitcher to attempt to solve will be Arizona's Archie Bradley, who entered the weekend with a 2-3 record and 5.66 ERA. Bradley has taken losses in each of his three June starts, with a 5.19 ERA during the month.

In his last outing, on June 14 against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Bradley gave up five runs (all earned) in 5? innings of a 7-4 loss.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Blue Jays (39-32) at Orioles (39-28)

Game: 3
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Date: June 19, 2016 1:35 PM EDT

BALTIMORE -- The Orioles will have a big hole in their lineup in Sunday's series finale with the Toronto Blue Jays as Baltimore third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado is dropping his appeal and begins serving his four-game suspension for what happened in the June 7 brawl with Kansas City pitcher Yordano Ventura.

That could prove tough for the Orioles on Sunday and throughout the four days as Machado has arguably been one of the top players in the major leagues so far this season. He has a .317 average with 17 homers and 42 RBIs after Saturday's 4-2 victory over the Jays.

In addition, the Orioles will have to play one man short throughout the four games as a suspended player can't be replaced on the roster. Manager Buck Showalter is well aware of this.

"We're going to be short somewhere, regardless," Showalter said. "That's part of the penalty. So, kind of pick your poison."

The Orioles (39-28) needed to make some moves to open spots for pitcher Yovani Gallardo and shortstop J.J. Hardy on Saturday, both returning after long stretches on the disabled list. They moved left-hander T.J. McFarland back to Triple-A Norfolk, keeping infielder Paul Janish, who probably will see some playing time at third or serve as a backup.

Machado and the Orioles thought it was the best move at this time. He just wants to move on.

"It's done and over. I'll sit down for the four games and be ready to help this team get to the playoffs," Machado said.

Offense might be hard to find in Sunday's game as the two starters, Toronto's Marcus Stroman (6-2, 4.76 ERA) and Baltimore's Chris Tillman (9-1, 2.87), both have pitched effectively this season.

Stroman won his first four decisions before splitting his last two. Tillman has been on a roll, winning eight straight games and pitching as well as he has in his career.

The Orioles need more consistent starting pitching, and Tillman has been their lone starter who has done well throughout the season. He has emerged as a true ace, and the Orioles need a strong performance from him as the Blue Jays (39-32) have been crushing the ball in recent games.

The Toronto offense, as strong as it is, gained some help with the return of Troy Tulowitzki from the disabled list.

Toronto now has won eight of its last 11 games, a big reason the Blue Jays have turned the American League East into a three-team race. The Orioles come into Sunday's game with a one-game lead over Boston and a two-game edge over the Jays.

The Blue Jays and Orioles split the first two games of this series. Toronto had beaten Baltimore in the last four games between the teams.

These are two of the best-hitting teams in the American League and baseball, and runs often are scored when they play each other.

The big question Sunday is how the Orioles will do without Machado because the Jays have plenty of punch and power on offense.

"I mean, (that's) a good lineup," Toronto knuckleballer R.A. Dickey said. "We're going to do this all year to each other. We have to batten down the hatches and just score more runs than they do."