LARRY NESS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh has had a number of players suffering from a virus (flu?) the last few weeks. Friday’s series opener at Cincy was postponed due to rain and the day off seemed to have helped. Pittsburgh had just been one-hit at St Louis on Thursday but had 12 hits (including three HRs) in Saturday's 10-2 win. The Reds have opened the 2009 season 1-3 (all at home) and after getting just six hits Saturday, are batting .218 as a team on the season. However, I expect those Cincy bats to 'wake up' vs Pittsburgh's Ian Snell on Sunday afternoon. Snell went 14-11 with 4.74 ERA back in 2006 and then 9-12 in 2007, although he did improve his ERA by almost a full run (3.76). However, he was only 7-12 with a 5.42 ERA last year, allowing 201 hits in 164.1 innings. The Pirates were 14-17 in his 31 starts, with Snell posting a 6.22 ERA on the road. Snell's 2009 debut hardly gives any indication of him showing improvement this year, allowing eight runs (six earned) and nine hits over four innings in Tuesday’s 9-3 loss to the Cardinals. He went 2-2 with a 5.01 ERA in four starts against the Reds last season and is 4-6 with a 5.21 ERA in 11 lifetime starts vs the Reds (Pirates are 4-7). The Reds counter with Aaron Harang. Harang won 16 games in both 2006 and 2007, going 16-6 with a 3.73 ERA in 2007. The team was a spectacular 24-10 in his 34 starts that year, making Harang MLB's biggest "moneymaker" among starters (plus-$1,347). Harang had a HUGE 'fall' last year, going 6-17 (4.78 ERA), with the Reds going 12-17 (minus-$640) in his 29 starts. However, he looked very good in Monday’s season-opening 2-1 defeat at the hands the Mets and Johan Santana. Harang allowed just one run, seven hits, three walks and struck out two in five innings. Harang was 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA in three starts (Reds were 1-2) vs the Pirates last season after going 3-0 with a 3.52 ERA in four starts (Reds were 3-1) against them in ’07. Harang is 11-5 (4.29 ERA) in his career vs the Pirates (team is 12-8 in 20 starts) and I'm of the belief that he'll be much closer to his '07 form this year, than to his '08 form. Let's see if I'm right, today? With the Reds facing Ian Snell, I should have more than a little "margin of error." Take the Reds.