Sunday 3/15/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Sunday

(885) ATLANTA HAWKS at (886) LOS ANGELES LAKERS 9:35PM

Take: (885) ATLANTA HAWKS -8.5

If one were to take a look at what I’ve played the last couple of seasons in the NBA, there’s some consistency in the thought process. While I’d classify myself as more of a dog player in other sports, I have no problem going the chalk route in pro hoops.

What I’m primarily searching for are spots where the elite teams figure to be focused. I won’t argue that this is very simplistic and that’s not generally a formula for success against the spread. But the fact remains there’s a much bigger disparity between the top and the bottom in the NBA as compared to the other pro sports, and in the right scenario, I’ve therefore got no problem laying a load of lumber.

I think this qualifies as one of those spots for Atlanta. The Hawks are obviously having a superlative season and they’re going to be top seed in the Eastern Conference. So there are going to be plenty of games down the stretch where they could be on cruise control. But I don’t think this is one of those nights.

The Hawks haven’t played very well in their last two games. They got kayoed at Denver on Wednesday and really only played one good quarter at Phoenix on Friday. That one outstanding frame was enough to get Atlanta the win and cover, but it was not a good performance. I don’t see this team wanting to suddenly start getting sloppy and there’s what I think is ample reason to expect a better showing tonight.

The Hawks have lost only four home games all season. One of those was to the Los Angeles Lakers. Revenge is not a big deal in the NBA for the most part. But I have to think the Hawks don’t want to face the prospect of being swept by the lowly Lakers, and off two less than stellar efforts, I’m banking on better tonight.

Valuable bench performer Mike Scott is gone with a foot injury so the Atlanta rotation is going to have to adjust a bit, and one thing I’ll say about this Lakers team is that they haven’t done the tank routine, and I’ll applaud their effort in spite of really being better off losing than winning. Regardless, the Lakers are not equipped to defeat a focused Atlanta entry and if I can get that version of the Hawks to surface tonight at Staples, this should be a comfortable win for the road team. It’s not cheap by any means, but I’ll side with the Hawks minus the points here.
 
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Jim Feist

Jim's NBA Bonus Play for Sunday, March 15, 2015: 3:30 PM ET

(873) HOUSTON ROCKETS VS (874) LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Take: (874) LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Sunday, March 15, 2015 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Houston Rockets and LA Clippers. Both clubs have had to play extended time without some stars. The Rockets have been without Dwight Howard and the Clippers without Blake Griffin. Good news for the Clips, they may get Griffin back today as he's set to return any day now. The Clippers have played well without Griffin, going 9-5 S/U and ATS the last 14 games. The Rockets have also played well, goin 7-4 S/U their last 11. However, they have slumped a bit lately, losing four of their last six. They are also just 2-3 ATs their last five. The Clippers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Rocket and 5-2 the last seven in LA. I like the Clips here either way, but even more if Griffin returns. Your Bonus Play is on the Clippers.
 
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Jesse Schule

Arkansas vs. Kentucky

Free NCAAB play Arkansas Razorbacks

Kentucky is coming off yet another win by more than 20 points, and it's a double digit favorite in the SEC Final on Sunday versus Arkansas. I think the Razorbacks aren't getting enough credit here as the #2 team in the conference, and I'll take the points.

The Wildcats defeated Arkansas by a score of 84-67 at the end of February, but that was in Lexington. They followed that up with an unimpressive 72-64 win on the road at Georgia, and then played consecutive close games against a pretty average Florida team.

The Razorbacks crushed Georgia yesterday, winning by a score of 60-49. They are one of the nation's highest scoring teams averaging just under 80 points per game, and they have a history of playing close games against Kentucky. Arkansas has covered the spread in four of the last six meetings in this series, and three of those games were decided in overtime.

Kentucky has failed to cover the spread in five of it's last six versus teams with a winning record (above .600), and I think it is being asked to cover a few too many points in a neutral site game versus a quality opponent.

Take Arkansas
 
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Red Dog Sports

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Columbus Blue Jackets

Fee play under 5.5

think we see a 3-2 final score on Sunday
 
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NBA

Sunday, March 15

Trend Report

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago
Oklahoma City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago

3:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. LA CLIPPERS
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Houston is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 6 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 7 games at home

6:00 PM
DENVER vs. NEW ORLEANS
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of New Orleans's last 14 games when playing at home against Denver

6:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. ORLANDO
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 6 games at home
Orlando is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Cleveland

7:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. SAN ANTONIO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Minnesota is 1-19 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
San Antonio is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games

7:00 PM
PORTLAND vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 6 games when playing Toronto
Portland is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Toronto
Toronto is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
Toronto is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games when playing Portland

9:00 PM
NEW YORK vs. PHOENIX
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 6 games
New York is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Phoenix is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New York
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games at home

9:30 PM
ATLANTA vs. LA LAKERS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
Atlanta is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the LA Lakers last 7 games at home
LA Lakers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
 
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NHL

Sunday, March 15

Trend Report

12:30 PM
DETROIT vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games on the road
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games

5:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. COLUMBUS
Carolina is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Columbus
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing on the road against Columbus
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Columbus's last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
Columbus is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

5:00 PM
FLORIDA vs. NY RANGERS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida's last 5 games when playing NY Rangers
Florida is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games on the road
NY Rangers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Florida
NY Rangers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home

6:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. DALLAS
St. Louis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis

7:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. OTTAWA
Philadelphia is 6-16-3 SU in its last 25 games ,when playing on the road against Ottawa
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
Ottawa is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Ottawa is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia

7:30 PM
BOSTON vs. WASHINGTON
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Washington is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games at home

8:00 PM
NASHVILLE vs. ANAHEIM
Nashville is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Nashville's last 8 games when playing on the road against Anaheim
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Anaheim's last 8 games when playing at home against Nashville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Anaheim's last 7 games
 
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NCAAB SEC Championship
By Brian Edwards

Kentucky vs. Arkansas

Finally, for the first time in 16 years, Kentucky and Arkansas will meet again in the SEC Tournament finals. When the Razorbacks entered the SEC in 1992, Nolan Richardson and Rick Pitino had Arkansas and UK rolling. They were two of the premier programs in the country and easily the class of the league.

But Arkansas has fallen on hard times since inexplicably firing Richardson, who took the Hogs to back-to-back national-title games in 1994 and ’95 and won it all over Duke in ’94. Since ousting Richardson in 2002, Arkansas has one — ONE!! — NCAA Tournament victory in 12 seasons.

In 17 years at the helm, Richardson went to 13 NCAAs, six Sweet 16’s, four Elite Eight’s and three Final Fours. He won 26 Tournament games. Since his departure, the Razorbacks are 3-for-12 in terms of NCAA invites.

However, in the fourth season of Mike Anderson’s tenure, Arkansas is finally going to get its first NCAA bid on Anderson’s watch. The coach’s style of play is exactly the same as Richardson’s. Now to be clear, this year’s Hogs won’t immediately make you start thinking of Scotty Thurman, Corliss Williamson, Corey Beck, Al Dillard and Darnell Robinson.

But Arkansas does feature the SEC Player of the Year in Bobby Portis, in addition to a high-flying slasher named Michael Qualls. They press, create turnovers and shoot well from 3-point range (second in the SEC with 35.3 percentage).

But they’ll be up against it at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville on Sunday when they faced unbeaten and top-ranked Kentucky, which disposed of Florida and Auburn en route to the finals.

As of early Saturday night, a few books had Kentucky (33-0 straight up, 17-14-2 against the spread) favored by 13.5 or 14 points.

John Calipari’s team won a 64-49 decision over Florida as a 13.5-point favorite in Friday’s SEC Tournament quarterfinals. Then on Saturday in the semifinals, UK cruised to a 91-67 win as a 24-point ‘chalk.’ The Wildcats led by as many as 28, but their betting supporters had to settle for the push, while the 158 combined points soared ‘over’ the 137-point total.

Willie Cauley-Stein led five UK players in double figures with 18 points, seven rebounds and three blocked shots. Andrew Harris contributed 15 points and four assists, while Devin Booker added 12 points and six boards. Trey Lyles and Andrew Harrison finished with 12 points apiece.

Not to imply it would’ve mattered, but UK was facing an Auburn team playing its fourth game in four days. Making matters worse for Bruce Pearl’s club, Jordon Granger and Cinmeon Bowers were suspended for the semifinals. Granger threw a punch in the overtime win over LSU in the quarterfinals, while Bowers possibly committed a rules violation Friday night.

Arkansas advanced to its first SEC Tournament finals since 2008 with a 60-49 win over Georgia as a 2.5-point favorite. The Bulldogs played without starting guard Kenny Gaines, who Mark Fox wanted to save for the NCAA Tournament because he’s dealing with a sprained foot. The 109 combined points never threatened the 145-point tally to produce a thunder ‘under.’

Portis had a horrible game, making just 1-of-14 shots and scoring a season-low four points. He did have 12 rebounds, though. Qualls scored a game-high 15 points and grabbed six rebounds. Defense was the story for the Hogs, who limited UGA to 16-of-49 shooting from the field (32.7%).

When these teams met at Rupp Arena on Feb. 18, UK raced out to a 16-point halftime lead and coasted to an 84-67 win as a 15.5-point home favorite. Trey Lyles and Andrew Harrison scored 18 points apiece, while Tyler Ulis had 14 points and three assists without a turnover. Booker was also in double figures with 10 points.

In the losing effort, Qualls registered team-highs with 17 points and nine rebounds. Portis finished with 15 points and eight boards.

Arkansas has been an underdog six times, going 4-2 ATS with three outright victories.

The ‘over’ had hit in five consecutive Arkansas games before the win over UGA saw the ‘under’ cash easily. Nevertheless, the ‘over’ is 18-13 overall for the Hogs.

The ‘under’ is 19-14 overall for the ‘Cats, but the ‘over’ is 5-2 in their last seven outings.

There’s no pressure on either team whatsoever. In fact, the Selection Committed announced Saturday that UK is the No. 1 overall seed for the NCAA Tournament. As for Arkansas, it is comfortably in the Tournament and will probably be a No. 4 or No. 5 seed. A win might catapult the Hogs into a three seed.

Tip-off is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
 
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POINTWISE

NBA BASKETBALL

SUNDAY, MARCH 15 SCORE

(1:00) OKLAHOMA CITY 116 – Chicago Bulls 100 (ABC) _____ _____

(3:30) LA CLIPPERS 105 – Houston Rockets 93 (ABC) _____ _____

(6:05) Cleveland Cavaliers 109 – ORLANDO MAGIC 92 _____ _____

(6:05) NEW ORLEANS PELICANS 105 – Denver 99 _____ _____

(7:05) Portland Trailblazers 104 – TORONTO 99 _____ _____

(7:05) SAN ANTONIO SPURS 116 – Minnesota 98 _____ _____

(9:05) PHOENIX SUNS 99 – New York Knicks 77 (NBA) _____ _____

(9:35) Atlanta Hawks 109 – LOS ANGELES LAKERS 99 _____ _____

BEST BETS: CLEVELAND, SAN ANTONIO, PHOENIX (2)
 
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Sunday’s NCAAB conference tournament Betting Cheat Sheet

*** AAC Finals: Southern Methodist Mustangs vs. Connecticut Huskies (-2.5)

What seemed improbable just a few days ago is now well within reach for Connecticut, which will face No. 21 SMU in Sunday’s American Athletic Conference tournament final at the XL Center in Hartford, Conn. The Huskies rallied to defeat Tulsa Saturday to put themselves in position to capture the automatic bid they desperately need to reach the NCAA Tournament. “You have to keep believing. Keep believing in yourself, keep believing in each other,” senior Ryan Boatright told the media after scoring 21 points. “We came here to win it. We set the tone early in the USF game that we came here to win it. We win this game, they can’t deny us.”

Markus Kennedy came up with a strong game as the Mustangs overcame a slow start to beat Temple 69-56 in the semifinals. The 6-9 junior, who was academically ineligible for the first 10 games of the season, has averaged 16.5 points of the last four games as SMU clinched its first regular season conference title since 1993 and reached its first conference tournament final since 1988. “He’s a quality, quality player,” head coach Larry Brown told the media of Kennedy. “To be humble enough to not start and come off the bench, not a lot of kids with his ability would.”

TRENDS:

*Huskies are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win.
*Mustangs are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games.
*Under is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 games following a S.U. win.
*Over is 8-2 in Mustangs last 10 vs. American Athletic Conference.

*** Big Ten Finals: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan State Spartans (-7)

Big Ten Player of the Year Frank Kaminsky was merely a part-time player when Wisconsin lost in Chicago in the conference title game two years ago. The Lisle, Ill., native will get his chance to play a write a much different ending in familiar surroundings Sunday when the fifth-ranked and top-seeded Badgers meet Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament championship game. Kaminsky averaged 4.2 points and 10.3 minutes as a sophomore in 2012-13, when Wisconsin fell to Ohio State 50-43.

The 7-foot senior is the only Division I player averaging at least 17 points, eight rebounds, two assists and 1.5 blocks this season and will get his chance to help the regular-season champion Badgers avenge a pair of tournament losses over his career to the Spartans. Third-seeded Michigan State, which went on to win the title both times (2012 and 2014), has yet to lose in the championship game in four tries. The Spartans played their way into their third title-game appearance in four years Saturday, knocking out eighth-ranked and second-seeded Maryland in the semifinals a few hours after Wisconsin pounded Purdue.

TRENDS:

* Spartans are 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
* Badgers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games.
* Over is 5-1 in Spartans last 6 vs. Big Ten.
* Under is 8-2 in Badgers last 10 games following a S.U. win.

*** SEC Finals: Kentucky Wildcats vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (-13.5)

Kentucky is 33-0 and owns the longest winning streak in the program’s storied history. And after the top-ranked Wildcats routed upstart Auburn 91-67 to set the mark and set up Sunday’s SEC tournament championship matchup with No. 20 Arkansas in Nashville, Tenn., coach John Calipari was asked if he senses his team is getting overconfident or cocky. “I don’t think they are,” Calipari said Saturday in his post-game news conference. “But if you watch me coach, you know (they) don’t have a whole lot of time to act that way. I told them … my job is to get you to be your best, and I’m not settling for less than that. If you’re in there you’re not focused, you’re not fighting, you’re not talking, I’m going to say something.”

And true to his word, Calipari doesn’t hesitate to pull players, simply turning to the next man up on the “deepest team I’ve ever had.” In all, the Wildcats feature nine players averaging 17 or more minutes and seven averaging at least 6.7 points. That’s the challenge awaiting the second-seeded Razorbacks, who have won 10 of their last 12 after dominating third-seeded Georgia 60-49 in Saturday’s second semifinal.

TRENDS:

* Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.
* Wildcats are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Razorbacks last 6 vs. Southeastern.
* Over is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings.
 
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Game of the Day: Rockets at Clippers

Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Clippers (-3.5, 213)

The Los Angeles Clippers are staying in the middle of the playoff race in the Western Conference despite being without one of their best players. The Clippers will try to take another step forward in the standings when they host the Houston Rockets on Sunday, and they could have the services of All-Star forward Blake Griffin in the meeting. Griffin has been out since having surgery to remove a staph infection from his right elbow last month.

Los Angeles was crushed 129-99 at the Dallas Mavericks on Friday but the bright spot was back in California, where Griffin was undergoing a full workout in anticipation of a return Sunday or Tuesday. “He’s working out great,” Clippers coach Doc Rivers told reporters. “He’s doing great. He had a hard workout (Friday) and went through it. I know he went very hard (Friday), and that’s a good sign.” The Rockets know what it’s like to be without an All-Star in the front court, and center Dwight Howard (knee) is still a week or two away from returning.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: The Clippers opened as 3.5-point home favorites with a total of 213.

INJURY REPORT: Rockets – F Kostas Papanikolaou (Out-Ankle), C Dwight Howard (Out-Knee) Clippers – F Blake Griffin (Ques-Elbow), G Jamal Crawford (Out-Calf)

WHAT BOOKS SAY: “The Rockets look to break a 2 game slide as they visit the Clippers, we have the Clippers listed as 4.5 point favorites at home where they are 24-9 on the year with 89 percent of the early action on the Clippers to cover. With 2 of the highest scoring teams int eh league we posted a total of 211.5 which is seeing 70 percent of the action come in on the over so far.” – Michael Stewart Carbon Sports.

ABOUT THE ROCKETS (43-22 SU, 37-28 ATS, 30-35 O/U): Houston sits in the No. 4 spot in the West, one game behind Portland and 1 1/2 games clear of the fifth-place Clippers, but is slumping of late with losses in four of its last six games. The Rockets are closing out a four-game road trip on Sunday and are hoping for more from star James Harden, who failed to reach 20 points in either of the last two games while going 10-of-32 from the field, including 0-of-8 from 3-point range. Harden did not fare well against Los Angeles in two meetings last month, going 3-of-12 from the field in a road loss and improving to 4-of-13 in a home win over the Clippers on Feb. 25.

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (42-24 SU, 29-37 ATS, 29-34-3 O/U): Los Angeles has been enduring a brutal schedule of late, with losses in three of the last five games to potential playoff opponents Portland, Golden State and Dallas. The Clippers had been holding their own against the top teams in the league until Friday, when the Mavericks shot 60.7 percent from the field and never looked threatened. “They broke us down on the ball screen,” Chris Paul, who has recently been hobbled by a knee injury, told reporters. “That’s something the guards, especially me, have to do a better job of keeping the ball in front. They can’t just get in there and pick us apart.”

TRENDS:

*Under is 7-3 in Clippers last 10 overall.
*Rockets are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
*Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
*Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are backing the Rockets at +3.5 at a rate of 57.1 percent.
 

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