Jack Jones
Panthers vs Seahawks
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Seahawks/Panthers OVER 43.5
I think this is going to be a high-scoring affair Sunday night. Most have expected defensive battles when these teams have gotten together recently, but that hasn’t been the case at all. In fact, the OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 48, 50 and 55 points. All three meetings have come since the 2015 playoffs, so they are pretty recent.
They combined for 48 points in that playoff game in 2015. They combined for 50 points in a 27-23 Carolina victory in Seattle last season. And they combined for 55 points in a 31-24 home victory for the Panthers in the NFC Championship Game last year. And both defenses were better in those three games than they are right now.
Injuries have decimated both of these defenses. The Panthers are without Luke Kuechly, their best player, and just gave up 35 points to the Raiders last week in their first game without him. They have one of the worst secondary’s in the NFL as this unit is young and inexperienced and has been torched all season.
The Seahawks have some serious injuries of their own on defense. Both Michael Bennett and Earl Thomas are questionable to play this week after missing last week’s game against the Bucs. Bennett is their best player along the defensive line, while Thomas is one of the most feared safety’s in the NFL.
This Carolina secondary is giving up 67.1% completions, 272 passing yards per game and 7.2 yards per attempt this season. Russell Wilson will get right back on track in this one and have a big day through the air. Seattle hasn’t been as strong as normal in the secondary this year, allowing 62.8% completions and 235 yards per game. I think Cam Newton will have some success, too.
The Seahawks have been at their best at home offensively as they are putting up 26.4 points, 364 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. Carolina still boasts an elite offense that is scoring 25.1 points per game on the season, including 27.2 points per game on the road this year. But their defense has surrendered 25.0 points per game overall and 31.0 points per game on the road.
Carolina is 15-6 to the OVER in all road games over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 6-0 OVER in road games off a loss over the last three years. Seattle is 13-4 OVER in its last 17 home games after scoring and allowing 14 points or fewer in its previous game. Carolina is 10-1 OVER vs. good passing teams who average 7 or more yards per attempt over the last two seasons. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Seattle. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
Panthers vs Seahawks
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Seahawks/Panthers OVER 43.5
I think this is going to be a high-scoring affair Sunday night. Most have expected defensive battles when these teams have gotten together recently, but that hasn’t been the case at all. In fact, the OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 48, 50 and 55 points. All three meetings have come since the 2015 playoffs, so they are pretty recent.
They combined for 48 points in that playoff game in 2015. They combined for 50 points in a 27-23 Carolina victory in Seattle last season. And they combined for 55 points in a 31-24 home victory for the Panthers in the NFC Championship Game last year. And both defenses were better in those three games than they are right now.
Injuries have decimated both of these defenses. The Panthers are without Luke Kuechly, their best player, and just gave up 35 points to the Raiders last week in their first game without him. They have one of the worst secondary’s in the NFL as this unit is young and inexperienced and has been torched all season.
The Seahawks have some serious injuries of their own on defense. Both Michael Bennett and Earl Thomas are questionable to play this week after missing last week’s game against the Bucs. Bennett is their best player along the defensive line, while Thomas is one of the most feared safety’s in the NFL.
This Carolina secondary is giving up 67.1% completions, 272 passing yards per game and 7.2 yards per attempt this season. Russell Wilson will get right back on track in this one and have a big day through the air. Seattle hasn’t been as strong as normal in the secondary this year, allowing 62.8% completions and 235 yards per game. I think Cam Newton will have some success, too.
The Seahawks have been at their best at home offensively as they are putting up 26.4 points, 364 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. Carolina still boasts an elite offense that is scoring 25.1 points per game on the season, including 27.2 points per game on the road this year. But their defense has surrendered 25.0 points per game overall and 31.0 points per game on the road.
Carolina is 15-6 to the OVER in all road games over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 6-0 OVER in road games off a loss over the last three years. Seattle is 13-4 OVER in its last 17 home games after scoring and allowing 14 points or fewer in its previous game. Carolina is 10-1 OVER vs. good passing teams who average 7 or more yards per attempt over the last two seasons. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Seattle. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
Ray Monohan
Giants vs Steelers
Sunday 5* FREE NFL ATS Play New York Giants +6
The Giants catch points on the road against the Steelers and they have some value here. New York is no pushover on either side of the ball. With playmakers like Odell Beckham Jr. and Eli Manning, the Giants offense can strike at any moment with the big play.
As for the defense, they are right up there with the tops in the league. The Giants are averaging just 19.4 points against on the season. Expect them to get plenty of pressure in the Steelers back field and force them into some difficult 3rd down situations, where the Giants really flourish.
Some trends to note. Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Giants are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
New York has plenty of talent all around. They enter play red hot, winners of 6 in a row as well. Given the momentum they have here, they'll have their chances to steal this one outright here.
The points are the safe way to go.
Back New York ATS.
Good Luck, Razor Ray
Giants vs Steelers
Sunday 5* FREE NFL ATS Play New York Giants +6
The Giants catch points on the road against the Steelers and they have some value here. New York is no pushover on either side of the ball. With playmakers like Odell Beckham Jr. and Eli Manning, the Giants offense can strike at any moment with the big play.
As for the defense, they are right up there with the tops in the league. The Giants are averaging just 19.4 points against on the season. Expect them to get plenty of pressure in the Steelers back field and force them into some difficult 3rd down situations, where the Giants really flourish.
Some trends to note. Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Giants are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
New York has plenty of talent all around. They enter play red hot, winners of 6 in a row as well. Given the momentum they have here, they'll have their chances to steal this one outright here.
The points are the safe way to go.
Back New York ATS.
Good Luck, Razor Ray
Mike Lundin
Broncos vs Jaguars
5* NFL Free Pick Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos are coming off a disappointing 30-27 Sunday night loss to Kansas City. I think the lowly 2-9 Jacksonville Jaguars will pay the price this week. Denver is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games following a straight up loss and it needs to rack up wins in order to catch the surging Oakland Raiders at the top of the AFC West. Jacksonville has lost six in a row overall and the Jags have an NFL-worst minus-15 in turnover differential this season. Denver's QB Trevor Siemian threw for a personal-best 368 yards and three touchdowns last week but sustained a foot injury and has been limited at practice this week. It's not the Broncos' offense that will win them this game though, but their D. Look for Denver to win and cover the spread at EverBank Field this Sunday.
Broncos vs Jaguars
5* NFL Free Pick Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos are coming off a disappointing 30-27 Sunday night loss to Kansas City. I think the lowly 2-9 Jacksonville Jaguars will pay the price this week. Denver is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games following a straight up loss and it needs to rack up wins in order to catch the surging Oakland Raiders at the top of the AFC West. Jacksonville has lost six in a row overall and the Jags have an NFL-worst minus-15 in turnover differential this season. Denver's QB Trevor Siemian threw for a personal-best 368 yards and three touchdowns last week but sustained a foot injury and has been limited at practice this week. It's not the Broncos' offense that will win them this game though, but their D. Look for Denver to win and cover the spread at EverBank Field this Sunday.
Jimmy Boyd
Chiefs vs Falcons
Free Pick on Chiefs +
I’ll take the points with Kansas City on the road against the Falcons. The Chiefs are tied for the 4th best record in the league, yet no one wants to give them any respect. Which is a little bit surprising given KC is now 18-3 in their last 21 regular season games.
I know the Falcons have an elite offense, but the Chiefs are trending up on the defensive side of the ball. A big part of that is the return of star outside linebacker Justin Houston. He was dominant against Denver and that dynamic pass rush is something they have been lacking.
Keep in mind the Chiefs were missing two key players on defense last week. One being outside linebacker Dee Ford, who is T-2nd in the NFL with 10 sacks. He's expected to be back in action this week. These two are going to live in Atlanta's backfield and really make life miserable for Matt Ryan, who likes to throw the ball down the field.
I’m not saying the Chiefs are going to completely shut down the Falcons, but they can keep them from going off. That should be all the offense needs to keep this game close and potentially win outright. While KC’s offense is limited, this Atlanta defense is one they can have success against. The Falcons rank 27th in total defense (381.0 ypg) and 29th in scoring defense (27.5 ppg).
Keep in mind this is also an Atlanta defense that has recently loss two of their top defensive players. Shutdown corner Desmond Trufant is likely out the rest of the year. He’s by far their best cover guy. They will also be without defensive end Adrian Clayborn for an extended period. A big loss, as he’s second on the team with 4.5 sacks.
It’s also worth pointing out the Chiefs have been road covering machines under Andy Reid. The Chiefs are 16-6 ATS on the road after the 1st month of the season under Reid. KC is also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams allowing 24.0 or more ppg. On the flip side of this, Atlanta has struggled to cover as a favorite under Dan Quinn. They are just 3-11 ATS as a favorite since he took over as head coach. Take Kansas City!
Chiefs vs Falcons
Free Pick on Chiefs +
I’ll take the points with Kansas City on the road against the Falcons. The Chiefs are tied for the 4th best record in the league, yet no one wants to give them any respect. Which is a little bit surprising given KC is now 18-3 in their last 21 regular season games.
I know the Falcons have an elite offense, but the Chiefs are trending up on the defensive side of the ball. A big part of that is the return of star outside linebacker Justin Houston. He was dominant against Denver and that dynamic pass rush is something they have been lacking.
Keep in mind the Chiefs were missing two key players on defense last week. One being outside linebacker Dee Ford, who is T-2nd in the NFL with 10 sacks. He's expected to be back in action this week. These two are going to live in Atlanta's backfield and really make life miserable for Matt Ryan, who likes to throw the ball down the field.
I’m not saying the Chiefs are going to completely shut down the Falcons, but they can keep them from going off. That should be all the offense needs to keep this game close and potentially win outright. While KC’s offense is limited, this Atlanta defense is one they can have success against. The Falcons rank 27th in total defense (381.0 ypg) and 29th in scoring defense (27.5 ppg).
Keep in mind this is also an Atlanta defense that has recently loss two of their top defensive players. Shutdown corner Desmond Trufant is likely out the rest of the year. He’s by far their best cover guy. They will also be without defensive end Adrian Clayborn for an extended period. A big loss, as he’s second on the team with 4.5 sacks.
It’s also worth pointing out the Chiefs have been road covering machines under Andy Reid. The Chiefs are 16-6 ATS on the road after the 1st month of the season under Reid. KC is also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams allowing 24.0 or more ppg. On the flip side of this, Atlanta has struggled to cover as a favorite under Dan Quinn. They are just 3-11 ATS as a favorite since he took over as head coach. Take Kansas City!
Scott Spreitzer
Texans vs Packers
Bonus Play Houston Texans
We're recommending a play on the Houston Texans plus the points on Sunday. This number jumped virtually as soon as Green Bay disposed of Philadelphia on Monday night. The Packers were as low as a 4-point favorite, but climbed to as high as 6 1/2 and even 7, by Tuesday. Once again, Green Bay didn't run well in their win over the Eagles, gaining just 74 yards on 28 carries, but Aaron Rodgers had a big night through the air. Houston's strength is their pass defense, where they rank 5th in the league, allowing just 209.2 yards passing per game. The Packer pass defense can be permissive and let's not forget they allowed 42, 47, 31, & 33 points in their four games before beating Philly. Kirk Cousins and Marcus Mariota recently combined for 670 yards passing, 7 TDs and no INTs, over a 2-week stretch against the Packers. Brock Osweiler has his troubles passing downfield, there's no denying his weaknesses, but he shouldn't be overwhelmed by the defense he'll face in this one. The Pack have covered just one of their last five when playing on a Sunday following a Monday night appearance. And finally, the Texans have bounced back well off a bad game, currently on a 6-0 ATS run following a game where they scored no more than 14 points, including 3-0 SU & ATS this season. We're recommending a play on the Texans plus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Texans vs Packers
Bonus Play Houston Texans
We're recommending a play on the Houston Texans plus the points on Sunday. This number jumped virtually as soon as Green Bay disposed of Philadelphia on Monday night. The Packers were as low as a 4-point favorite, but climbed to as high as 6 1/2 and even 7, by Tuesday. Once again, Green Bay didn't run well in their win over the Eagles, gaining just 74 yards on 28 carries, but Aaron Rodgers had a big night through the air. Houston's strength is their pass defense, where they rank 5th in the league, allowing just 209.2 yards passing per game. The Packer pass defense can be permissive and let's not forget they allowed 42, 47, 31, & 33 points in their four games before beating Philly. Kirk Cousins and Marcus Mariota recently combined for 670 yards passing, 7 TDs and no INTs, over a 2-week stretch against the Packers. Brock Osweiler has his troubles passing downfield, there's no denying his weaknesses, but he shouldn't be overwhelmed by the defense he'll face in this one. The Pack have covered just one of their last five when playing on a Sunday following a Monday night appearance. And finally, the Texans have bounced back well off a bad game, currently on a 6-0 ATS run following a game where they scored no more than 14 points, including 3-0 SU & ATS this season. We're recommending a play on the Texans plus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Marc Lawrence
Dolphins vs Ravens
Play - Miami Dolphins
Edges - Dolphins 5-1 ATS last 6 games in Baltimore; and 14-8 ATS away during December since 2004. Ravens: Flacco 3-13 ATS last 16 starts in December, including 0-8 ATS as a favorite. With the Ravens 0-5 ATS in their 2nd to last home game the last five years, we recommend a 1* play on Miami. Thank you and good luck as always.
Dolphins vs Ravens
Play - Miami Dolphins
Edges - Dolphins 5-1 ATS last 6 games in Baltimore; and 14-8 ATS away during December since 2004. Ravens: Flacco 3-13 ATS last 16 starts in December, including 0-8 ATS as a favorite. With the Ravens 0-5 ATS in their 2nd to last home game the last five years, we recommend a 1* play on Miami. Thank you and good luck as always.
Winning Angle---SUNDAY (All plays listed---Read Entire Email)
HORSE RACING
It was a pretty good start to the horses for us on Opening Day at Gulfstream----we nailed some Top Play Winners and pulled in a few exotic wagers making a nice return for the day. I will list the entire card for today----Let’s get these winners and cash some tickets.
As always—I recommend a Win/Place/Show Wager on each TOP PLAY listed and I have listed the exacta and trifecta boxes for those that like the exotic plays.
GULFSTREAM PARK
RACE 1---#5 Break Away (5-1-2-6)
RACE 2---#4 Grand Nene (4-1-2-3)
RACE 3---#6 Tavrida (6-1-5-8)
RACE 4---#5 Homer Matt (5-2-4-6)
RACE 5---#9 Our War Eagle (9-1-3-4)
RACE 6---#7 Elizabeth Aurora (7-3-4-5)
RACE 7---#12 Pray for Bourbon (12-2-5-7)
RACE 8---#11 Banco Dinero (11-2-5-6)
RACE 9---#3 Mr. Baker (3-2-7-8)
RACE 10---#10 Parker Elizabeth (10-3-8-9)
HORSE RACING
It was a pretty good start to the horses for us on Opening Day at Gulfstream----we nailed some Top Play Winners and pulled in a few exotic wagers making a nice return for the day. I will list the entire card for today----Let’s get these winners and cash some tickets.
As always—I recommend a Win/Place/Show Wager on each TOP PLAY listed and I have listed the exacta and trifecta boxes for those that like the exotic plays.
GULFSTREAM PARK
RACE 1---#5 Break Away (5-1-2-6)
RACE 2---#4 Grand Nene (4-1-2-3)
RACE 3---#6 Tavrida (6-1-5-8)
RACE 4---#5 Homer Matt (5-2-4-6)
RACE 5---#9 Our War Eagle (9-1-3-4)
RACE 6---#7 Elizabeth Aurora (7-3-4-5)
RACE 7---#12 Pray for Bourbon (12-2-5-7)
RACE 8---#11 Banco Dinero (11-2-5-6)
RACE 9---#3 Mr. Baker (3-2-7-8)
RACE 10---#10 Parker Elizabeth (10-3-8-9)
