Sunday 12/21/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $18000 Class Rating: 79

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 21 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 4 TAKE IT INSIDE 8/5


# 6 NICE N' SWEET 7/2


# 2 TIARA GOLD 6/1


TAKE IT INSIDE looks respectable to best this field. With a nice Equibase class rating average of 86, has one of the top class advantages in this field. Has been running very well and has among the most respectable speed in the race for today's distance. Has to be given a shot here on the basis of the figs in the speed department alone. NICE N' SWEET - Had one of the most competitive Equibase speed figs of this group of animals in her last contest. Could provide positive profits based on respectable recent speed figures with an average of 69. TIARA GOLD - Will most likely go to the lead and may never look back. The Equibase Speed Figure of 70 from her latest race looks quite good in here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Gulfstream - Race #8 - Post: 3:58pm - Maiden Special - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $40,000 Class Rating: 95

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 RESILIENT ONE (ML=5/2)
#12 SACRED LUNA (ML=6/1)
#11 COSMIC HARMONY (ML=20/1)


RESILIENT ONE - This filly is in good condition, having run a nice race on November 20th, finishing third. Expect this filly to be in the rear of the field early and come finishing strongly. Earnings per race is something that I feel can be an extremely key factor. This mount is ranked numero uno in this bunch. In my opinion, you need 'class' to be successful on the grass. This one has the highest average class rating in the bunch. SACRED LUNA - This trainer brings horses to the grass ready to go, winning over 20 percent of the time under similar conditions. I have all the info you need right here. Dam stats for first-time-starters, winners 50 percent of the time. COSMIC HARMONY - Really have to figure this horse is going to be on the money at the wire.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 MOZAMBIQUE GOLD (ML=3/1), #10 ROYAL PARISIAN (GB) (ML=4/1),

MOZAMBIQUE GOLD - Not probable that this steed can nab this sprint after showing no early speed in that last route affair. ROYAL PARISIAN (GB) - Don't think that this filly has value at 4/1 this time around.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #5 RESILIENT ONE to win if we can get at least 2/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,12]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turf Paradise - Race #4 - Post: 2:18pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,000 Class Rating: 51

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 SOPHISTRY (ML=2/1)


SOPHISTRY - The rider and trainer combination have a lucrative ROI when they combine forces. Looking at today's class rating, this horse is meeting an easier group than last out at Turf Paradise.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 LITTLE LINDA (ML=7/5), #8 FEISTY GHOST (ML=6/1), #6 TERRA LUNA (ML=8/1),

LITTLE LINDA - If you keep betting these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be let down most every time. The extreme effort in the last race may knock this mare off stride in today's event. FEISTY GHOST - This horse likes to be on the board, but doesn't usually finish first. Don't put in the top spot. Just can't play this runner. Didn't show me anything in the last race or on November 12th. TERRA LUNA - Awfully hard to play this pony when she hasn't been showing any fighting spirit recently.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#3 SOPHISTRY is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
3 with [1,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Sunday 12/21 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 7 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (56 - 108 / $215.40): DIXIE’S BOY (4th)

Spot Play: JUSTLIVINTHEDREAM (10th)


Race 1

In a wide open and tough race to gauge (2) RIVERSIDE GOLD needs a smooth trip in an evenly matched race. (3) FRONTIER PINE BOW filly faces older but is one of few with upside in the race. (8) AMAZED has been knocking on the door against this bunch; threat.

Race 2

(6) EVA BELLA two-year-old is progressing nicely and looks to have a lot of ability in an inconsistent field. (4) VICTORIA IVY filly is one of few who's been competitive at this level. (5) PERCHED ON TOP has the best late closing kick but needs a good setup.

Race 3

(1a) BLACKJACK RIVNDEL could be starting to turn a corner after drawing off late against the same bunch last out. (3) DIAMOND DESIRE IVY has been improving with every start and gets a post edge on his main rival. (4) TOUCH THE SKY is the question mark in the race coming off a scratch but has flashed a good burst of speed.

Race 4

In a field with few contenders (8) DIXIE'S BOY looks like he could be a nice pacer and has a big brush; versatile. (3) CONTROL TOWER could be the only threat to the top choice off a really nice career debut. (7) MYSTICAL SHOOTER is 0 for twenty on the year but has been pacing some nice miles; use underneath.

Race 5

(2) GAME OF DREAMERS owns only one win on the year but lays over the field on paper. (1) DEE DEE SAGE mare is capable of a good effort but is probably best used underneath. (6) JOKERSLITLWHITELIE mare rarely wins but does have a decent record of hitting the board.

Race 6

(4) CLEVER UPSTART has had tough racing luck in his last two and can get his picture taken with a trouble free trip. (2) LOCK AND GO has been sharp in his last few facing better. (8) RIET'S KID will offer a big price and could use a fast pace up front to close into for his best chance.

Race 7

In the toughest race to handicap on the card (9) ODDS ON ROLOMITE will need to find a way into the race but raced huge last out at Maywood from a tough spot. (7) ROCK N KILO well bred filly is the sleeper in the race and looks to be ready for a good effort. (8) SECONDS LATER pacer loves burning cash; use underneath.

Race 8

In a field with two contenders (1) KIMBERLY R mare gets a big post edge on her main competition. (8) MELODIE HOTSPUR mare just missed last out racing gamely; fires early. (2) HOTMONES has made the most money in the field on the year but will need some racing luck to hit the top spot.

Race 9

(6) MAYFAIR SOPHIE filly faces older but has a lot of talent and just needs to mind her manners for a chance at a price. (1) NESSIE'S BOY was the driver's choice and gets the best post. (2) ENCHANTRESS LADY well bred mare had a perfect setup last out; command a price.

Race 10

(2) JUSTLIVINTHEDREAM gelding put in a big effort first start off the layoff and picks up a huge driver change. (8) RUSSELL L gelding should probably be considered the horse to beat but has been inconsistent from week to week. (4) PARKED ONDA STREET didn't miss by much last out and has been racing better than his lines indicate for the current connections.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Fair Grounds (1st) Whyalwaysme, 3-1
(5th) Waytogo Trish, 6-1

Gulfstream Park (2nd) Choice Point, 4-1
(7th) Kutschman, 3-1

Los Alamitos (6th) Shun, 3-1
(8th) Celebrity Status, 3-1

Parx (2nd) Wild Nicole, 9-2
(5th) Pink Hero, 7-2


Tampa Bay Downs (3rd) Iron Media, 5-1
(5th) Oriental Secret, 3-1


Turfway Park (3rd) Nipsky, 7-2
(9th) Kitten's Journey, 9-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB Top 25 roundup: Kentucky blows out UCLA
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

CHICAGO -- Top-ranked Kentucky opened with 24 unanswered points and cruised to an 83-44 victory over unranked UCLA in the finale of a CBS Sports Classic doubleheader on Saturday at the United Center.

The Wildcats (12-0) held UCLA scoreless for 7 minutes, 43 seconds, a shutout finally broken by Kevon Looney's layup after an 0-for-16 start from the field by the Bruins.

"They're not machines and they're not computers," Kentucky coach John Calipari said. "They don't play great every time out."

Kentucky led 41-7 at halftime, the fewest points it has ever allowed in any half since December 1943. It was also UCLA's least number of points scored in school history. The previous low mark was 14.

Devin Booker scored 19 points, including five 3-pointers, while Aaron Harrison added 15 for the Wildcats, who have won by double-digit margins in every game this season and led the nation in winning margin (28.2 points) entering Saturday.

With his team leading, 16-0, Booker entered the game and scored the next eight points, including back-to-back 3-pointers.

Bryce Alford topped UCLA (8-4) with 13 points and guard Isaac Hamilton added 12 in front of an announced crowd of 19.726 at the Chicago arena.



No. 24 North Carolina 82, No. 12 Ohio State 74

CHICAGO -- Brice Johnson scored 18 points and Marcus Paige added 16 as North Carolina withstood Ohio State's late surge in the first game of the CBS Sports Classic.

The Tar Heels (8-3) saw a 14-point second half lead dwindle to seven with 1:19 to play after Marc Loving's 3-pointer, but the Buckeyes (9-2) never got closer.

Justin Jackson added 11 points and Kennedy Meeks had a game-high 13 rebounds for the Tar Heels.

Loving scored a game-high 19 points and Sam Thompson added 17 for the Buckeyes, who saw a four-game winning streak snapped. D'Angelo Russell and Shannon Scott had 11 and 10 points, respectively.


No. 4 Louisville 76, Western Kentucky 67

Terry Rozier scored a career-high 32 points, including 26 in the second half, to lead Louisville over Western Kentucky in Bowling Green, Ky.

Montrezl Harrell was ejected with 38.7 seconds remaining in the first half. The preseason All-American was assessed a flagrant-2 foul for throwing an elbow following a shoving match after a scramble for a loose ball.

Chris Jones added 10 points for Louisville (10-0). Freshman Anas Mahmoud added six points and five rebounds.

T.J. Price scored 24 points and D.J. Clayton added 14 for the Hilltoppers (5-5).


No. 7 Villanova 82, Syracuse 77 (OT)

JayVaughn Pinkston had 25 points and 10 rebounds to lead Villanova to an overtime win over Syracuse in Philadelphia.

Darrun Hilliard added 23 points for the Wildcats (11-0), who rallied from a 15-point deficit in regulation. Pinkston tied the score 69-all with 4.2 seconds left in regulation on a basket off a turnover.

Rakeem Christmas and Michael Gbinije each scored 18 points for Syracuse (6-4).


No. 8 Gonzaga 63, Cal Poly 50

SEATTLE -- Kevin Pangos made three 3-points and scored 11 of his 16 points in the second half to help Gonzaga shake Cal Poly in KeyArena.

Center Przemek Karnowski also had 16 points for Gonzaga (11-1).

David Nwaba scored a game-high 21 points for Cal Poly (5-5).


No. 10 Kansas 96, Lafayette 69

LAWRENCE, Kan. -- Freshman Kelly Oubre posted career bests of 23 points and 10 rebounds Kansas claimed its eighth straight victory by trouncing Lafayette.

The Leopards of the Patriot League carried a four-game win streak into the game and trimmed a 17-point halftime deficit to seven, 59-52, on a 3-pointer by Monty Boykins with 11:35 remaining.

The Jayhawks (9-1), however, used their depth to pull away, using runs of 12, eight and 12 unanswered points in the second half. Kansas also capitalized on 43 bench points.

Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, a Ukrainian freshman Kansas hoped could warm up from 3-point range, provided three treys in the first half.

Seth Hinrichs led Lafayette (7-3) with 15 points and seven rebounds.


No. 14 Utah 59, UNLV 46

LAS VEGAS -- Delon Wright scored 16 points and Brandon Taylor had 15 to lead Utah over UNLV in the MGM Grand Garden Arena.

Rashad Vaughn was the only UNLV player to score in double figures with 16 points.

Neither team shot well. Utah finished at 39.6 percent from the field and 57.1 percent at the free throw line. UNLV shot just 32.7 percent from the floor and 43.5 percent from the foul line.


Indiana 82, No. 23 Butler 73

INDIANAPOLIS -- Troy Williams and Yogi Ferrell led a second-half comeback as Indiana defeated Butler in the Crossroads Classic.

Williams, who came in averaging 12.1 points, finished with 22 points and 11 rebounds. Ferrell scored all 20 of his points during a second half in which the Hoosiers (9-2) outscored the Bulldogs 44-35.

Kellen Dunham led Butler (8-3) with 23 but scored only five during a second half when the Bulldogs led by as many as five before Ferrell and Williams dominated the final 11 minutes.


No. 21 Notre Dame 94, Purdue 63

INDIANAPOLIS -- All five Notre Dame starters scored in double figures and the Fighting Irish pulled away from Purdue in the Crossroads Classic.

Starters Pat Connaughton, Demetrius Jackson, Jerian Grant, Zach Auguste and Steve Vasturia spread the wealth as the Irish improved to a 11-1, beating the Boilermakers for a third consecutive time.

Jackson led Notre Dame with 22 points, Connaughton added 19 points and 14 rebounds, and Grant had 10 points and nine assists. Vasturia finished with 11 for Notre Dame, and Auguste added 10 for the balanced Irish.

A.J Hammons, Jon Octeus and Bryson Scott each had 11 points for Purdue (8-4).



No. 13 Iowa State 83, Drake 54

Naz Long scored 13 points as Iowa State dominated Drake in Des Moines, Iowa.

Monte Morris added 12 points and Dustin Hogue 10 for the Cyclones (9-1).

Trevor Berkeley and Jacob Enevold Jensen led Drake (2-9) with 10 points each.


Texas Southern 71, No. 25 Michigan State 64

Chris Thomas scored 22 points to lead Texas Southern to a stunning overtime win over Michigan State in East Lansing, Mich.

The Tigers (2-8) were coming off a 40-point loss to Gonzaga.

The Spartans (8-4) were without starter Branden Dawson, who fractured his wrist in a win over Eastern Michigan earlier in the week.

Javon Bess' free throw with 6.8 seconds left in regulation forced overtime, but the Spartans never led in the extra session. Matt Costello scored 17 points for Michigan State.


No. 9 Texas 78, Long Beach State 68

Javan Felix scored 17 points to help Texas defeat Long Beach State in Austin, Texas.

Jonathan Holmes added 14 points and Cam Ridley had 13 for Texas (10-1). Connor Lammert scored 10 points and grabbed 12 rebounds.

Mike Caffey scored 23 points for Long Beach State (5-7).


No. 16 Washington 69, No. 15 Oklahoma 67

Jernard Jarreau scored 12 points to lead Washington over Oklahoma at the MGM Grand Showcase in Las Vegas

The Huskies (10-0) had to hold on after leading by as many as 20 in the first half.

Jordan Woodard had a look at a potential winning jumper in the final seconds but missed.

Andrew Andrews and Robert Upshaw finished with 11 points apiece for Washinigton.

Isaiah Cousins and Buddy Hield scored 17 points apiece for Oklahoma (7-3).


No. 19 San Diego State 70, Ball State 57

SAN DIEGO -- San Diego State rebounded from its first loss earlier this week, defeating Ball State behind 15 points from Winston Shepard and 13 from JJ O'Brien.

The Aztecs (8-3), who fell 71-62 in overtime to Cincinnati on Wednesday, pulled away in the second half and Shepard's two free throws provided a 64-47 lead with more than eight minutes left in the second half.

Jeremie Tyler scored 17 points and Matt Kamieniecki had 15 points and 10 rebounds for Ball State (3-6).


No. 22 West Virginia 83, NC State 69

NEW YORK -- West Virginia won its third consecutive game behind 24 points from Juwan Staten and 16 from Devin Harris in the Gotham Classic.

Staten added six assists and was named Most Outstanding Player of the tournament.

Trevor Lacey had 24 points and Anthony Barber added 16 for North Carolina State (9-3).

West Virginia opened a 41-32 halftime lead and fought off several NC State challenges in the second half.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Virginia is 10-0 with nine wins by 11+ points; LaSalle (64-56) was only team to come closer to that against the Cavaliers. UVa has #4 eFG% in nation (38.1%); they have three top 100 wins. 7-1 Harvard hasn't played in 13 days (played #303 schedule); they've got one top 100 win, 75-73 at home vs UMass- their only loss was 58-57 against #177 Holy Cross.

USF is 3-5 in its last eight games; their best win was over #196 Hawai'i. Dons make 39.1% from arc, just 55.9% from line, 2nd-worst mark in US. Cleveland State lost five of last seven D-I games; they're 3-2 vs teams not in top 100, with all three wins by 9+ points. Vikings lost 91-82 at San Francisco LY, after leading by nine points with 8:40 left.

Creighton is 9-3 vs #311 schedule; two of its last three games went OT; they're 2-2 away from Omaha but 7-0 vs teams not in top 200, winning six of the seven by 10+ points. North Texas is 0-4 vs top 100 teams, with all four losses by 11+ points; Mean Green turn ball over 23.0% of time, have poor eFG% of 45.1%, making just 31% from the arc.

Oklahoma State is 9-1 vs schedule #263, 2-1 vs top 100 teams, beating Tulsa by 15, Memphis by 18- they lost at South Carolina. Cowboys are forcing turnovers 23.6% of the time, have #17 defensive eFG% (41.8%). Maryland is 9-1 vs schedule #297, losing by 10 at home to Virginia; they have top 100 wins over Arizona State/Iowa State on a neutral court.

Boston College lost 78-62 at USC LY, going 9-35 from arc in game that was tied at half; Eagles were 13-24 inside arc, not enough tries. 6-3 BC has four wins vs teams outside top 200. USC is 6-4 vs schedule #308, losing at home to Portland State/Army; they won only road game by 12 at banged-up New Mexico. Long road trip for just this game.

Georgia hasn't played in two weeks since home win over #69 Colorado, Dawgs' only win in four top 100 games. Georgia is 5-3 vs #65 schedule, shooting 54.1% inside arc. Young Seton Hall is making 41.7% from arc; they split pair of road games, losing by 9 at Wichita State, winning at USF. Pirates' 42.9 defensive eFG% is #30 in country.

San Jose State is 0-9 vs D-I teams with last six losses by 11+ points, but they do have two non-D-I wins. Spartans turn ball over 22.4% of time; they lost by 21 to Washington in only Pac-12 game. Washington State is 4-6 in coach Kent's first year, 3-1 vs teams outside top 200; they're 2-1 at home, losing to Idaho, beating Idaho State by 12, UTSA by 20.

Green Bay is 8-2, 3-0 vs teams outside top 200, with wins by 17-16-16 points, despite shooting 26.9% from arc, 61.4% from line- both losses are to teams in top 60. Ark-Little Rock is 4-4 vs schedule #321, losing last three games, all by exactly 5 points- five of their last six games were won by 6 or less points, or in OT. Trojans' last win was November 29.

Cal-Irvine lost five of last seven games, losing by point to #301 Morgan State last game; Anteaters turn ball over 20.7% of time, make 28.5% on arc- they're 0-2 outside California, losing by 1-17 points. Bradley is 0-4 outside Peoria, with three losses by 8 or less points; they're turning ball over 23.8% of time, making 38.8% inside arc (44.4 eFG% is #290).

North Dakota State is 1-4 away from home, with losses to Montana and Southern Miss, teams outside top 200; Bison beat MAC's Akron in last game, but that was at home. Kent State only two losses are by 7-8 points in their only two games vs top 100 opponents; Flashes force turnovers 22.7% of time, make 45.3% of their 3's, best %age in country.

Oregon State is 8-2 vs schedule #342; they've forced turnovers 25.1% of time, have 39.7 eFG% (#7 in US). Beavers won in OT at Portland in its only true road game. Quinnipiac lost three of last four games, turning ball over 21.7% of time; they're #1 offensive rebounding team in country, but playing against team from better conference makes rebounding harder.

Montana lost four of last five games, with only win over North Dakota State of Summit by 12; Griz have played #19 schedule, resulting in an eFG% of 56.1% (#328). South Dakota lost three of last four games; they beat Big Sky's Montana State at home last game, but are 2-6 away from home. Coyotes are 0-3 in OT games, including an OT loss at Creighton.

UL-Monroe somehow has four non-D-I wins; they're 2-1 vs teams not in top 200, with best win over #218 UAB- they lost in OT at Florida, so they've got to have some talent, but they're shooting just 27.3% from arc Samford is 4-8 with last five wins all by 10+ points; Bulldogs' best win was over #268 UMKC- they're on their third head coach in four years.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Total Talk - Week 16
By Chris David

Week 15 Recap

The ‘under’ produced an eye opening 13-3 record last weekend and that number could’ve been better too. Anybody who had the ‘over’ in the Oakland-Kansas City matchup received an early holiday gift thanks to the Raiders
punching in a meaningless touchdown at the end of the game. Through 15 weeks, the ‘under’ has gone 116-107-1.

Home/Away Tendencies

With only two weeks left in the season, there are some solid seasonal total trends to watch in Week 15.

Pittsburgh is 6-0 to the ‘over’ at home
Steelers host Chiefs

Tampa Bay and San Francisco both 5-1 to the ‘under’ at home
Buccaneers host Packers, 49ers host Chargers

Indianapolis is 5-1 to the ‘over’ on the road
Colts visit Cowboys

Detroit is 6-0 to the ‘under’ on the road
Lions visit Bears

Minnesota is 6-1 to the ‘under’ on the road
Vikings visit Dolphins

Buffalo is 5-1 to the ‘under’ on the road
Bills visit Raiders

30-Something

Even though the NFL is known as an offensive-first league these days, defensive struggles do occur and it’s pretty easy to figure out which games will be low-scoring based on the totals, this season in particular.

Through 15 weeks, there have been four games with totals that closed in the thirties and all four have gone ‘under’ the total.

Week 1 – Carolina 20 at Tampa Bay 14 (Under 38)
Week 2 – St. Louis 19 at Tampa Bay 17 (Under 37)
Week 14 – Seattle 17 vs. San Francisco 7 (Under 38)
Week 15 – Jacksonville 21 vs. Tennessee 13 (Under 39)

Why do bring this angle up? Because we have two more games pending on Sunday.

Buffalo at Oakland
Seattle at Arizona

Divisional Games

Only six divisional matchups in Week 16, five of them set for Saturday and Sunday. Trends and thoughts provided below.

Philadelphia at Washington (Saturday): High total (50 ½) in this game that will have both teams playing on short rest. Fortunately, not much travel is involved. Since Chip Kelly took over the Eagles, they’ve scored 33, 24 and 37 points against the Redskins. The difference for this game is that QB Mark Sanchez is behind center for Philadelphia and he’s in a funk. RG3 will start for the ‘Skins and he’s just as inconsistent as Sanchez.

Detroit at Chicago: Three of the last four in this series have gone ‘over’ the total including this year’s matchup on Thanksgiving as the Lions earned a 34-17 win. The Bears are starting Jimmy Clausen at QB and the total has dropped from 46 to 44. Knowing how good an ‘under’ bet (6-0) Detroit has been on the road, I’m surprised it hasn’t fallen lower.

Atlanta at New Orleans: This is the highest total (56) on the board. In Week 1, Atlanta nipped New Orleans 37-34 in overtime at home and the ‘over’ (51) cashed. Prior to this outcome, the ‘under’ was on a 3-0 run. Based on the limited defensive units and their ability to throw the ball often, it’s either ‘over’ or pass for me in this matchup.

New England at N.Y. Jets: The ‘over’ is on a 9-1 run in this series and even though the Patriots have the more explosive offense, New York has done its fair share of scoring. In their last two games against New England, the Jets have scored 25 and 30 points. In what will likely be Rex Ryan’s final home game as coach of the Jets, part of me believes New York keeps this close. With that being said, they’ll have to score 20-plus just to keep up with New England.

Seattle at Arizona: (See Below)

Non-Conference Matchups

Betting the ‘over’ in AFC-NFC matchups last season was one of the best seasonal total trends I’ve ever seen. It posted a 49-15 (76.5%) record and the Super Bowl between Seattle and Denver also went ‘over’ the number.


AFC vs. NFC

AFC East vs. NFC North
Team CHI DET GB MIN
BUF Under Under Under Under
MIA Under Under Over -
NE Over Under Under Under
NYJ Over Under Over Over
AFC West vs. NFC West
Team ARI SF SEA STL
DEN Over Over Under Under
KC Under Under Over Under
OAK Under Under Over Over
SD Under - Over Over
AFC North vs. NFC South
Team ATL CAR NO TB
BAL Under Over Over Over
CIN Under Over Under Under
CLE Over - Over Under
PIT Under Over Over Over
AFC South vs. NFC East
Team DAL NYG PHI WAS
HOU Under Over Over Under
IND - Over Over Over
JAX Over Over Over Over
TEN Over Under Over Under

Based on the above table, the ‘over’ has gone 32-28 (53%) in the 60 non-conference matchups played this season, which tells you how mind boggling last season was.

Delving into the numbers further, there have been two good looks this season. Playing the ‘under’ (10-5) in AFC East-NFC North matchups and the ‘over’ (11-4) in AFC South-NFC East games.

We have four non-conference matchups left and they all play this weekend.

San Diego at San Francisco (Saturday)
Minnesota at Miami
Cleveland at Carolina
Indianapolis at Dallas

Three Straight?

Despite getting 32 points in the second-half, the Saints and Bears still went ‘under’ their closing total of 53 ½. With that result, the “Thursday Night Total” system has lost in its past two situations. For those new to VI and this weekly piece, all you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue. Despite back-to-back losses, this particular angle has gone 9-4 (69%) mark this season and 24-6-1 (80%) dating back to last year.

For Week 16, the system calls for an ‘over’ play in the Giants-Rams matchup on Sunday since St. Louis hosted Arizona last Thursday.

This total opened at 45 ½ and has come down to 43. The St. Louis defense has given up a total of 12 points in its last three games but those efforts came against the Raiders, Redskins and Cardinals. While it’s too little-too late for New York, you can’t ignore the fact that the Giants have scored 28, 24, 36 and 24 points in their last four games.

Under the Lights

Including this past Thursday’s outcome between the Jaguars and Titans, the ‘over’ has gone 32-15 in primetime games this season.

Seattle at Arizona: Low totals are always dangerous to bet but based on this year’s numbers (See 30-Something), the ‘under’ is the looks. Seattle defeated Arizona 19-3 at home in Week 12 and I can’t imagine the Cardinals scoring more in this spot, especially with Ryan Lindley at QB. Arizona’s defense is holding opponents to 15 PPG at home, which has helped the ‘under’ go 5-2.

Denver at Cincinnati: The Broncos have seen the ‘under’ cash in their last three games and the offense appears to be content with running rather than passing. The Bengals have gone 4-2 in the second-half of the season but both losses came at home and they only scored 24 combined points in those setbacks. In night games this season, the Bengals have scored 17 and 3 points.

Fearless Predictions

Only three games went ‘over’ last weekend and leave it to me to be on the opposite side of one of them. Thanks Oakland! And not to hop on the bandwagon, but Johnny Football squashed the Teaser, which dropped the bankroll ($70) to negative numbers. With two weeks of regular season action left, we need to turn it around. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Merry Christmas!

Best Over: Giants-Rams 43

Best Under: Vikings-Dolphins 42

Best Team Total: Over 18 ½ New York Jets

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Giants-Rams 34
Over Chiefs-Steelers 38 ½
Under Lions-Bears 53

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL 'Dog Bengals help books
By Matty Simo

LAS VEGAS – Much like Week 12, NFL teasers again victimized Vegas sportsbooks on Sunday. Favorites went 11-3 straight-up in Week 14 games on Sunday and 6-6-2 against the spread, covering the number on 6-point teasers in 10 of 14 games. Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, summed up Sunday’s NFL betting action at his property in two words – “not good.”

The Kansas City Chiefs (-11), Pittsburgh Steelers (-3), New York Giants (-7), New York Jets (-3.5), Denver Broncos (-4.5) and Seattle Seahawks (-10) were among the favorites that were bet up at The Wynn. The defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks were the only team of that group not to cover easily but did allow bettors to cash teasers on both them and their opponent, the San Francisco 49ers, in a 17-7 win.

“We got hurt in teasers,” Avello said. “The Chiefs game was no good. That game I opened 11, the sharp guys took the 11 and the 10.5, and the house guys laid the 10 and the 10.5 going back up for much more. The Giants was a big game for me. I needed the Redskins, game went from (New York) 6 to 7, obviously they played well at times but not well enough to cover the spread.
“I had mostly Steeler money. The Jets game was a loser, went from 1 to 3.5. Broncos was a loser. The Seahawks, I had big money laying 9.5, so when I went to 10, all that money I gave back got sided on that game. After you hear my story, it doesn’t sound good, does it?”

Two of the three underdogs to win straight-up ended up costing The Wynn as well, including the Dallas Cowboys knocking off the Philadelphia Eagles 38-27 on Sunday Night Football. “The Cowboy game, I needed the Eagles,” said Avello, who closed Dallas at +3.5 (+100).

The second underdog that bit The Wynn was the Buffalo Bills, opening as 5.5-point home underdogs and getting bet down to +3.5 before beating the Green Bay Packers, 21-13. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers had his worst game of the season with just 185 passing yards and two interceptions, raising his season total to five. The Bills guaranteed themselves a .500 season for the first time since 2004 and ended a five-game winning streak for the Packers, who were Super Bowl favorites heading into Buffalo.

“Green Bay game was a loser for me, went from 5.5 to 3.5,” Avello said. “I was very disappointed in Green Bay. They lost the game, and that happens. But I didn’t like dropping passes, the Jordy Nelson pass. They just don’t do that kind of stuff.”

The third underdog winner – the Cincinnati Bengals – actually helped The Wynn because the public was in love with Johnny Manziel making his first career start for the Cleveland Browns. Cincinnati opened as a 1.5-point road favorite at The Wynn, but bettors made Cleveland 2.5-point home chalk by kickoff. The Bengals ended up blanking the Browns 30-0 for the biggest victory on Sunday as Manziel flopped.

“The Bengal game was a good game, went from 1.5 Bengals to 2.5 Browns,” said Avello, who said last Friday that he did not understand the line move. “That game turned out well for us. Sometimes you see things right, sometimes you don’t. But that one did go kind of the way we talked about.”

The second-biggest win on the scoreboard Sunday involved the New England Patriots, who blew out the Miami Dolphins 41-13, turning a close game at halftime into a rout with a 27-0 second half. However, New England’s ninth victory in 10 games that clinched the team’s 11th AFC East title in 12 years did not crush The Wynn as badly as it hurt Miami’s playoff chances.

“The Patriot game was an interesting game for me,” Avello said. “I opened (the Patriots) at 8.5, I went as low as 7.5 and then back to 8. I had Miami money mostly, and I had a bunch of teasers on the Patriots.

“The game was ok because it didn’t fall in the middle there. If it fell in the middle, we’d have to pay everybody, so that one worked out ok.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Opening Line Report: Cowboys open as field goal faves versus Colts
By COLIN KELLY

They say there are two certainties in life: Death and taxes.

Well, here’s a third: Somebody is going to win the dreadful NFC South, and that someone will have a home playoff game, despite posting a sub-.500 record.

Week 16 “features” a contest that will go a long way toward determining which team will secure that berth, when the Atlanta Falcons (5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS) travel to the Big Easy to face the New Orleans Saints (5-8 SU and ATS).

The Falcons “played” their way into contention by losing five in a row earlier in the season, winning two in a row after that, then losing three of their last four. On Sunday, Atlanta fell to Pittsburgh 27-20 as a 3-point home underdog.

Meanwhile, New Orleans still has some work to do this week, with the Monday night game at Chicago. The Saints enter that contest on a 1-4 SU and ATS slide. Both the Saints and Bears could end up losing the division title to equally dreadful Carolina (5-8-1 SU, 7-7 ATS).

John Lester, said he’ll wait to see how the Saints look tonight before setting the number, but expects Drew Brees and Co. to open as touchdown favorites.

“The division berth could be on the line for New Orleans, and possibly Atlanta oddly enough, so this is a big one,” Lester said, adding the status of Falcons wideout Julio Jones – who missed Sunday’s game with a hip injury -- looms large. “The Falcons are obviously a different team without Julio Jones. The Saints are on a short week, but the home team in this series seemingly wins every time. If nothing major happens Monday night and Jones is out, the Saints will be around touchdown favorites.”

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+7.5)

Defending Super Bowl champion Seattle is rounding into playoff form and still has a shot to catch surprising Arizona for the NFC West title. The Seahawks (10-4 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) stifled San Francisco 17-7 on Sunday, pushing as a 10-point home favorite while posting their fourth consecutive SU win (3-0-1 ATS) and seventh in the last eight games.

Arizona (11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS), tied for the best SU record in the league and No. 1 against the oddsmakers, is now down to third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley. But the Cards’ defense helped them fend off St. Louis 12-6 last Thursday.

“We’re going to hold off on releasing a line for this game until the Cardinals’ quarterback situation becomes clearer,” Lester said. “We assume it’s going to be Lindley, but stranger things have happened. There is a drop-off between Drew Stanton and Lindley. I think we’ll probably open Seattle between 6- and 7-point chalk.”

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Indy (10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS) clinched the AFC South with a 17-10 victory over Houston on Sunday, pushing as 7-point home chalk in its fourth consecutive SU win. But the Colts still have more to play for, with an outside shot at the AFC’s No. 2 seed and a first-round playoff bye.

Dallas (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) got out to a 21-0 lead at Philadelphia in the Sunday night game, gave all of it back and more in falling behind 24-21, then got back on track to claim a 38-27 victory as a 3.5-point pup. That gave the Cowboys the inside track to the NFC East title.

“This is as tough of a game to handicap as any on the board in Week 16, in my opinion,” Lester said. “Dallas got the big win against Philly, but it can’t afford to lose even once with the way the playoff picture is shaping up. The Colts are still playing for something, but they don’t need it nearly as much. We always get a ton of action on the Cowboys.”

Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Defending AFC champ Denver hasn’t looked pretty lately, but has won four in a row SU (2-2 ATS), including Sunday’s 22-10 victory laying 4 points at San Diego. The Broncos (11-3 SU, 7-7 ATS) are tied with New England for the AFC’s best mark, but hold the No. 2 playoff slot since they lost to the Patriots.

Cincinnati (9-4-1, 7-6-1) sits atop a crowded AFC North after getting a key win Sunday at Cleveland, rolling over hapless Johnny Manziel and the Browns 30-0 catching 2.5 points.

“As I mentioned last week, the Denver defense is starting to come around,” Lester said. “Peyton Manning doesn’t have to throw the ball 40 to 50 times when the defense is playing well. Both teams can move up in the standings, so there’s a lot left to play for. I expect the wiseguys will be on the home dog and the under.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL line watch: Jump on the Bengals now
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later and and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Game to bet on now

Denver at Cincinnati (+3.5)

All decent teams deserve a long look when they get points playing at home, and the half-point here is pretty enticing. The public is hammering the Broncos 3-1 in early betting, but the sharps might be planning a late play on the Bengals. And why not? Cincinnati has won four of five and is right in the thick of a crazy race in the AFC North, and the Bengals need this one badly to set up a potential winner-take-all battle with Pittsburgh in Week 17. Denver has won four in a row of its own, but fissures are starting to show in an offense that has been south of 30 points in three straight games. Take the points now on this one. PS -- The long-term weather forecast calls for light snow and temps in the low 30s, and we know how much Peyton Manning likes bad weather.

Game to wait on

New York Giants at St. Louis (-5)

The Rams are 6-8 and out and their playoff chances were burned at the stake when QB Sam Bradford ‘s ACL was torn last August, but what the St. Louis defense has done since Thanksgiving is nothing short of remarkable – 12 straight quarters without giving up a touchdown. The Giants have won a couple in a row against weak competition (Tennessee, Washington), but New York has also long since cashed in its chips on this season. New York has not beaten a decent defensive team all season, though. Figuring that New York money through the middle of the week might knock this number down a half-point or so, so if you like the Rams you might find -4.5 later on.

Total to watch

New England at New York Jets (47)

This is a playoff game for the Jets, who need at minimum a competitive game to have even a puncher’s chance of bringing fun-loving Rex Ryan back as coach, but even a win probably won’t get it done. The Jets have had success in the past clogging the middle against Brady’s receivers and bringing up-the-middle pressure, and the Patriots don’t do too much outside the numbers. Plus, NE likes its ground game now with LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray. Another factor in play is New England’s tendency to start slow on the road (Green Bay, San Diego), resulting in scoring in the low 20s. The Under is worth a look here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cutler benched in favor of Clausen, Bears big dogs
Justin Hartling

Marc Trestman and the Chicago Bears have decided to bench disappointing Jay Cutler in favor of backup Jimmy Clausen. The Bears have dropped their past three games with Cutler throwing six interceptions.

"[Cutler] actually doesn't meant to much in the line by his past performances," Scott Kaminsky "The problem here is that Clausen may be the worst backup in the league so we have moved the game to Chicago +8.5 and dropped the total to 44.5."

Chicago is 5-9 against the spread this season and 1-2 ATS when dogs of a touchdown or more.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Line Moves - Week 16
By Matty Simo

LAS VEGAS – Two NFC North contenders on a collision course to decide the division title in Week 17 have seen their Week 16 road games move more than one point in their favor. The Green Bay Packers (10-4) and Detroit Lions (10-4) are tied atop the standings, and each of them is trying not to look ahead to their showdown at Lambeau Field in the regular-season finale. But both have very winnable matchups this week, and the public has certainly taken notice in bumping them up from the opening numbers.

The Lions visit a Chicago Bears team on Sunday that surprised many in benching struggling quarterback Jay Cutler late this week in favor of backup Jimmy Clausen. Cutler has turned the ball over an NFL-high 24 times (18 interceptions and six fumbles lost), and many have been critical of his seven-year, $126 million contract with the Bears (5-9) due to his poor play since signing the extension. But some like Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, do not agree with the move.

“I’ve got to be honest with you, I don’t like the move at all – I really don’t,” Avello said. “Has Clausen ever proven that he can be an NFL starter? I don’t think he has. If Clausen cannot prove that he is an NFL starting quarterback, what are the Bears trying to accomplish here?

“Are they trying to say, ‘Hey Cutler, you’re pretty bad, and we’re just looking for a chance just today to give you a cooling off period?’ Or they are saying to him, ‘You’re really not our future, and we may be looking to get rid of you.’ I mean, where are they going with this move?”

Avello added that he thinks the strength of Chicago’s opponent here has played a big role in the public fading the home team and supporting Detroit, which has gone from a 7-point road favorite up to -8.5 at The Wynn. The Lions have a lot to play for over the last two weeks while the Bears do not.

However, Avello also said bettors should expect a much better performance as Chicago head coach Marc Trestman attempts to save his job and prove Clausen can run his offensive system much like Josh McCown did successfully last year. Ironically, McCown parlayed that into a big contract and starting job with former head coach Lovie Smith and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

“They are playing the Lions, and it’s a rivalry,” Avello said. “I would think at home, Chicago would have some motivation to play well here. Taking everything into consideration the way that the Chicago team’s been playing, I think the line should probably be more like Detroit (favored by) 4 points maybe on the road. This thing’s up to 8.5 now, so that’s 4.5 (points) right there.”

Meanwhile, a 21-13 loss by Green Bay last week on the road against the Buffalo Bills has actually made bettors back the Pack more for Sunday’s game at the Tampa Bay (2-12). The Packers opened as 10.5-point road favorites at The Wynn, and they are now up to -12 against the Bucs.

Avello said a lot of that has to do with Green Bay’s ability to bounce back from losses despite being a losing team on the road. Avello also said Tampa Bay’s inability to score much lately factors into the move, as the team is averaging just 15 points during a four-game losing streak.

“Green Bay hasn’t been the greatest of road teams, but after last week’s game, you’d think there would be a little bit of motivation to win because they’re also in that same hunt,” Avello said. “I think most of the line movement this week is based on the Green Bay game last week at Buffalo playing poorly.

“Obviously, (the Packers) score a lot of points, and Tampa Bay doesn’t. You look at Tampa Bay, most of their games, they’re scoring 14, 17. How do they stay with this team offensively? Or does their defense shut Green Bay down? I don’t think there’s any defense that shuts Green Bay down.”


Las Vegas SuperBook - Week 16 Betting Moves

Rotation Team Open Current Move
103 CHARGERS - - -
104 49ERS 2.5 1.5 -1
105 EAGLES 8.5 7.5 -1
106 REDSKINS - - -
107 VIKINGS - - -
108 DOLPHINS 6.5 6.5 0
109 PACKERS 10 12 -
110 BUCCANEERS - - -
111 LIONS 4.5 8 3.5
112 BEARS - - -
113 FALCONS - - -
114 SAINTS 6.5 6.5 0
115 PATRIOTS 10 10.5 0.5
116 JETS - - -
117 CHIEFS - - -
118 STEELERS 3 3 0
119 BROWNS - - -
120 PANTHERS 3 3.5 0.5
121 RAVENS 3.5 5.5 2
122 TEXANS - - -
123 GIANTS - - -
124 RAMS 5.5 6.5 1
125 BILLS 5.5 6.5 1
126 RAIDERS - - -
127 COLTS - - -
128 COWBOYS 1 3.5 2.5
129 SEAHAWKS 7.5 7.5 0
130 CARDINALS - - -
131 BRONCOS 3.5 3 -0.5
132 BENGALS - - -

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharp Moves - Week 16
By Mike Rose

We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 16!

(Rotation #109) Tampa Bay +10.5 – The Packers were definitely square last week against the Bills, and it ultimately, showed. This week, they're square once again, and the argument could be made that they are squarer now than they were before. No one figures that WR Jordy Nelson, QB Aaron Rodgers, and the gang are capable of putting up two straight stinkers of games offensively, and that's why most are lining up to lay double digits on the road against a bad Tampa Bay team which could still get the first overall pick in the NFL Draft. Still, Head Coach Lovie Smith knows what it is like to go against these Packers from his days in the NFC North, and he would love nothing more than to give the fans of Tampa Bay their first home win of the season for Christmas.

Opening Line: Tampa Bay +10.5
Current Line: Tampa Bay +10.5
Public Betting Percentage: 75% on Green Bay

(Rotation #117) Kansas City +3 – The Steelers are always public, and they are going to be even more public this week with their playoff chances arguably hanging in the balance. Winning this game would probably seal the deal, but a loss would leave Pittsburgh needing a win and help in Week 17 to get into the postseason. This is a playoff game for Kansas City, as it would be eliminated with a defeat in this one. QB Alex Smith does a nice job taking care of the football on a regular basis, and he very likely will end up having a strong game against a suspect Pittsburgh defense which has had major problems stopping opposing quarterbacks this year.

Opening Line: Kansas City +3 (+100)
Current Line: Kansas City +3 (-110)
Public Betting Percentage: 61% on Pittsburgh

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 16
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 16:

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (+5, 41.5)

Ravens’ OC Gary Kubiak vs. Texans’ offensive issues

Gary Kubiak was chased out of Houston with pitch forks and torches once fans soured on the Texans long-time coach following last season’s dreadful 2-14 campaign. Houston’s ownership buckled under pressure from the football faithful and showed Kubiak the door despite much success and a great relationship with his players.

Kubiak’s coaching pedigree has been on display all season, turning around a dismal Ravens offense. Baltimore is putting up 26.9 points per game – almost a touchdown more than last season – and has the rushing game ranked Top 5 in the NFL (132.6 yards per game) despite losing his top RB in Ray Rice and having Bernard Pierce in and out of the lineup all year.

Kubiak doesn’t know a whole lot about Houston QB Thad Lewis – one of two options for the Texans – but knows everything there is about QB Case Keenum, who he spent just about every waking moment with when Keenum got the No. 1 nod in Houston last year. Kubiak also has detailed information on almost every other Texans player, so expect John Harbaugh to pick his OC’s brain over thoroughly in prep this week.

Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers (N/A)

Browns’ success vs. NFC South vs. Panthers’ woes vs. AFC North

While the focus is on the quarterback situation for both teams – Johnny Manziel’s second start and Cam Newton’s pre-crash health – one angle slipping through the cracks is how bad the Panthers have been against the AFC North.

This season, Carolina is winless in its three non-conference games. It lost 37-19 to Pittsburgh in Week 3, 38-10 to Baltimore in Week 4, and tied with Cincinnati, 37-37, in Week 6. The Panthers are 1-2 ATS in those games, getting outscored 112-66 by AFC North teams. But it doesn't end there. Going back four years to the last time the NFC South faced the AFC North, Carolina went 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in non-conference competition. That's a grand total of 2-5 ATS against the AFC North in that four-year stretch.

Cleveland has handled the lowly NFC South this season. The Browns edged New Orleans 26-24 in Week 2, beat Tampa Bay 22-17 in Week 10, and got past Atlanta 26-24 in Week 12 – going 2-1 ATS in those games. Odds for this game are currently off the board (as of Thursday afternoon) with Newton’s status still up in the air.

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 55)

Colts’ small receivers vs. Cowboys’ stingy secondary

It’s not too often the Dallas secondary sees eye-to-eye with the receivers they’re covering. The Cowboys starting corners and safeties only go as tall as 6-foot-2 SS Barry Church, with CBs Brandon Carr (6-foot), Orlando Scandrick (5-foot-10), and Sterling Moore (5-foot-10), and safety J.J. Wilcox (6-foot-6) having to play “up” to their competition most weeks.

Enter a diminutive group of wideouts for Indianapolis which also tops out at 6-foot-2 WR Donte Moncrief. Top threat T.Y. Hilton (5-foot-9), veteran WR Reggie Wayne (6-foot), and rarely used Hakeem Nicks (6-foot-1) aren’t winning any slam dunk contests anytime soon. That lack of size downfield hasn’t hindered the Colts' passing production, coming into Week 16 ranked No. 1 with an average of almost 311 yards per game. So, where’s the mismatch? I’m getting to it.

Regardless of its small stature, the Cowboys secondary has only allowed 20 passing touchdowns this season – ninth fewest in the league – and has allowed opponents to score just 30 percent of their touchdowns through the air in the last three games. The Cowboys also have two red-zone interceptions on the season. They’ll force Indy to try and punch the ball into the end zone with the run, something the Colts have accomplished only nine times this season – three of those scores coming from QB Andrew Luck.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+7.5, 36.5)

Seahawks’ flaccid fourths vs. Cardinals’ crunch-time closers

The Cardinals made a name for themselves crushing teams in the fourth quarter this season. Heading into Week 16, Arizona has outscored opponents 102-40 in the final frame. But that late-game dominance has disappeared along with the Cards’ first and second-string quarterbacks.

In the last five games, Arizona has managed to score just 11 total points in fourth quarters. The Cardinals went scoreless in the final 15 minutes in three of those five outings and managed just a field goal in the final frame against St. Louis last Thursday. While the offense has gone MIA, the Arizona defense holds steady down the stretch. The Cards have allowed only nine fourth-quarter points in that five game span and have pitched three FQ shutouts of their own.

The Seahawks average 6.2 points per fourth quarter on the year, but have mustered only 10 total points in their last five fourth quarters – an average of just two points per final 15 minutes. In their last meeting, Seattle took a 19-3 lead over Arizona into the fourth and both teams went scoreless to finish the game. If the Cardinals can keep it close with some points on the board, they can put the Seahawks on lockdown in the final stanza Sunday night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 16 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Falcons at Saints (-6 ½, 56) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 15 Recap:
-- Atlanta (5-9) is still in the NFC South race in spite of a two-game skid, coming off a 27-20 home defeat to Pittsburgh as three-point underdogs. Julio Jones sat out due to a hip injury, as Matt Ryan threw for 310 yards and two touchdowns in the loss. With the defeat, the Falcons fell to 1-9 against teams outside the division.
-- New Orleans (6-8) rebounded from an ugly home loss to Carolina by beating up Chicago on Monday night, 31-15 as three-point road favorites. Drew Brees diced up a decimated Bears’ defense for 375 yards and three touchdowns, while the Saints surprisingly picked up their third consecutive road victory.

Previous meeting: Back in Week 1, the Falcons outlasted the Saints in overtime, 37-34, as Ryan threw for 445 yards and three touchdowns. Atlanta erased a 20-7 deficit to cover as three-point home ‘dogs, as the home teams has won five of the previous six meetings in this series.

What to watch for: Amazingly, New Orleans has lost four straight games at the Superdome with its last home win coming on October 26 against Green Bay. The Falcons have won all four games against NFC South foes this season, while Jones is expected to play on Sunday.

Chiefs at Steelers (-3, 48) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 15 Recap:
-- Kansas City (8-6) snapped a three-game skid in a 31-13 blowout of Oakland, as the Chiefs put up 21 points in the third quarter to pick up the cover as 11-point favorites. The Chiefs avenged a loss at Oakland in late November, as Andy Reid’s team improved to 5-2 at Arrowhead Stadium.
-- Pittsburgh (9-5) remains in the race for the AFC North title along with Cincinnati and Baltimore, as the Steelers took care of the Falcons, 27-20 for their third consecutive road victory. The Steelers rushed for just 45 yards, but Ben Roethlisberger put up 360 yards as Pittsburgh covered as a favorite for the first time in four opportunities.

Previous meeting: The Steelers held off the Chiefs in overtime, 16-13 back in 2012, as Kansas City cashed as 12 ½-point underdogs. Pittsburgh racked up just 249 yards, while the Chiefs covered for the third straight time against the Steelers as double-digit underdogs dating back to 2009.

What to watch for: The Chiefs own a solid 4-1 ATS record as a road underdog, while going ‘under’ the total in five of seven away contests. The Steelers began the season at 1-5 ATS in early kickoffs, but Mike Tomlin’s club has covered each of the past two weeks in 1:00 kicks.

Browns at Panthers (-4, 41) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 15 Recap:
-- Cleveland’s (7-7) playoff hopes are basically in the toilet following a 30-0 shutout at the hands of Cincinnati. Johnny Manziel’s first start didn’t give Browns’ fans hope, as the Heisman Trophy winner threw a pair of interceptions as Cleveland dropped its third straight game to fall into last place of the AFC South.
-- Carolina (5-8-1) won its second in a row following a seven-game winless stretch in a 19-17 victory over Tampa Bay as 3 ½-point favorites. Derek Anderson beat the Bucs for the second time this season, filling in for the injured Cam Newton, who missed the game following a car accident last week. Anderson threw for 277 yards, while Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen each hauled in over 100 yards receiving.

Previous meeting: The Browns edged the Panthers, 24-23 in November 2010, as Carolina cashed as nine-point road underdogs. All of the main skill position players from that game are gone, as Jimmy Clausen and Jake Delhomme started that game at quarterback for each team. The victory was the first in four lifetime meetings by Cleveland, as Carolina won the first three matchups in 1999, 2002, and 2006.

What to watch for: Cleveland owns a terrific 5-0-1 ATS mark off a non-cover this season, while boasting a 5-1-1 ATS record in the underdog role. The Panthers are winless in three tries against AFC North opponents, while allowing at least 37 points in each of those contests. Newton will start after sitting out last week, as Carolina is just 4-7-1 when he starts this season.

Ravens (-5, 42) at Texans – 1:00 PM EST

Week 15 Recap:
-- Baltimore (9-5) survived a feisty Jacksonville squad in a 20-12 home win as 12-point favorites. The Ravens allowed four field goals, while the Jaguars put up just 248 yards of offense. Baltimore’s defense has yielded just 25 points in the past two victories, a stark contrast from the 61 points given up the prior two weeks against New Orleans and San Diego.
-- Houston (7-7) suffered a tough loss in the standings, 17-10 at Indianapolis, while running out of quarterbacks by the minute. Both Ryan Fitzpatrick and rookie Tom Savage were injured in the loss to the Colts as seven-point underdogs, while Houston’s lone touchdown came on an interception return.

Previous meeting: The Ravens routed the Texans last September as one-point home favorites, 30-9. Baltimore scored a pair of non-offensive touchdowns on a pick return and a punt return, in spite of accumulating 263 yards of offense. Joe Flacco is 5-1 in his career against the Texans, which includes a 2-1 mark in Houston.

What to watch for: Baltimore has put together a 5-1 ATS record off a non-cover this season, while winning seven of nine games against teams outside the AFC North. Case Keenum will get the start for the Texans after getting signed this week, as Houston has gone ‘under’ the total in four of the past five games.

Colts at Cowboys (-3 ½, 55) – 4:25 PM EST

Week 15 Recap:
-- Indianapolis (10-4) wrapped up its second straight division title with a 17-10 victory over Houston. The Colts won their fourth straight since getting blown out by the Patriots last month, as Andrew Luck threw multiple touchdown passes for the 12th time this season.
-- Dallas (10-4) crept closer to a division title with its seventh road win in seven tries by knocking off Philadelphia, 38-27 as 3 ½-point underdogs. The Cowboys cashed the ‘over’ in their sixth straight away contest, while passing the 30-point mark in each of their last six games on the highway.

Previous meeting: Dallas pulled off a 38-35 victory as 5 ½-point road underdogs at Indianapolis in 2010. The Cowboys built a 17-0 lead before the Colts came back to force overtime. Dallas intercepted Peyton Manning four times, while Jon Kitna led the Cowboys in place of the injured Tony Romo as the running game racked up 217 yards on the ground.

What to watch for: For as great as Dallas has played on the road, Jason Garrett’s team has been extremely average at home with a 3-4 record, including three straight losses in Arlington. The Colts are listed as an underdog for just the second time this season, as Indianapolis covered in a 31-24 setback in Week 1 at Denver as eight-point ‘dogs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gridiron Angles - Week 16
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY AGAINST ATS TREND:

-- The Cowboys are 0-10 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since December 20, 2008 as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date.

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Cardinals are 12-0-1 ATS (8.3 ppg) since October 30, 2011 when facing a team whose defense recorded 4-plus sacks in their last game.

NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Aaron Rodgers is 11-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) since November 2008 after a game where he threw more than two passes and completed no more than 56% of his attempts.

NFL BIBLE ATS TREND:

-- The Buccaneers are 0-8 ATS at home after road losses in each of their last two games.

NFL BIBLE OU TREND:

-- The Seahawks are 16-0 OU versus any team with more wins after a win at home.

NFL ATS SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams that allowed fewer than 13 points last game and are more than five-point underdogs are 217-169-8 ATS. Active on Buffalo and Arizona.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Rams are 13-0 OU (9.1 ppg) since October 9, 2005 at home when their ats margin decreased over each of their past two games and at least one of the last two games were against nondivisional opponents.

NFL O/U SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams that have thrown for at least three TDs in back-toback games are 135-102-4 OU. Active on Dallas.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Ravens are 0-10 OU (-11.7 ppg) since November 1, 2009 as a favorite of at least three points when their opponent’s season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is greater than 30.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's Game to Watch

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (10-4) at DALLAS COWBOYS (10-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: Dallas -3, Total: 56

Two of the league’s best teams clash on Sunday when the Colts put their four-game win streak on the line when they visit the Cowboys.

While Indianapolis secured its fourth straight SU victory (2-2 ATS) last week with a 17-10 win over Houston, Dallas picked up a statement victory with a 38-27 win as 3-point road underdogs against the Eagles. Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray (hand) is questionable for this game after undergoing hand surgery earlier in the week, but he says that he will play and contribute to the league’s third-best rushing attack.

But a bigger concern for Dallas is finding a way to hold Andrew Luck in check, as the club is allowing 249.6 passing yards per game (23rd in NFL) and Luck is throwing for 301.9 YPG himself. However, Colts top WR T.Y. Hilton (groin) is questionable for Sunday, giving himself a 50/50 chance of playing. Over the past three seasons, the Colts are 12-2 ATS after an ATS defeat, but they are also 15-6 ATS when playing with six or less days of rest over the past two seasons. Dallas is, however, 32-16 ATS in home games after having won three out of its past four games since 1992.

In addition to Hilton, Indianapolis could be missing three offensive linemen in OT Gosder Cherilus (groin), G Joe Reitz (ankle) and G Hugh Thornton (knee), who are all listed as questionable. Joining Murray on the questionable list for the Cowboys are LB Dekoda Watson (hamstring), DT Josh Brent (calf), OT Doug Free (ankle) and G Zack Martin (ankle).

The Colts beat the Texans 17-10 last week, but the win was far from pretty. QB Andrew Luck (4,492 yards, 38 TD, 14 INT) threw for just 187 yards in the game with two touchdowns and a pick. He has thrown four interceptions over the past three weeks and will need to take much better care of the football going forward.

WR T.Y. Hilton (82 rec, 1,345 yards, 7 TD) had four catches for 50 yards before exiting the game with an injured groin. It would be a big loss for Indianapolis if he is unable to play against Dallas, but if Hilton does sit, WRs Reggie Wayne (59 rec, 665 yards, 2 TD) and Donte Moncrief (27 rec, 423 yards, 3 TD) will both need to step up and make plays for their quarterback. Moncrief has had two games with 100+ yards this season, showing that he is capable of playing at a high level with an increase in usage.

Defensively, Indianapolis is going to really need to play a good game. DeMarco Murray is capable of really shredding any team he’s up against, and if he plays, the Colts defensive front will have a long game ahead of them. They did, however, hold Texans star back Arian Foster to 3.8 YPC a week ago, and have held the past four opponents to 103 rushing YPG on 3.6 YPC.

The Cowboys won a big game against the Eagles last week and will now look to give themselves some breathing room in the NFC East with a victory over the Colts. Defensively, this game is going to be really tough for Dallas, which has struggled to defend the pass this season, and now must find a way to stop one of the best quarterbacks in football. They Cowboys did intercept two Mark Sanchez passes last week though.

Offensively, they will really need RB DeMarco Murray (1,687 rush yards, 11 TD) to play in this game. Murray has been one of the most consistently dominant running backs in the league this year and has given this team the balance it has lacked in recent years.

QB Tony Romo (3,188 pass yards, 28 TD, 8 INT) threw for 265 yards with three touchdowns and no picks against the Eagles last week. He’s now tossed six touchdowns with zero interceptions over the past two games, and is really in a groove. WR Dez Bryant (79 rec, 1,148 yards, 13 TD) had six catches for 114 yards and three touchdowns against the Eagles. He is nearly impossible to keep in check, and Tony Romo will certainly be looking his way often in this game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bengals look for home win

DENVER BRONCOS (11-3) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (9-4-1)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line Denver -3, Total: 47.5

The Broncos go for their fifth straight victory when they visit the surging Bengals on Monday night.

Last Sunday, Denver went into San Diego and won 22-10 for its fourth straight SU victory. Meanwhile, Cincinnati also scored a road win by blowing out Cleveland 30-0 to pick up its fourth SU victory in the past five games. The last meeting between these two teams was on Nov. 4, 2012, when the Broncos won 31-23 as 5-point favorites on the road. They have won-and-covered in three of their past four trips to Cincy dating back to 2003.

This matchup will feature a Bengals offense that has the sixth-ranked rushing attack in football going against a Denver team that is second in the league in rushing defense. The Broncos are 8-1 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the past three seasons, and are also 10-2 ATS in December games in this same timeframe. However, Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS off a division game over the past two years and 24-10 ATS after leading in its previous game by 14 or more points at the half since 1992.

RB Ronnie Hillman (ankle), RB Juwan Thompson (hip), TE Jacob Tamme (ribs), CB Kayvon Webster (shoulder) and OT Ryan Clady (leg) are among several Broncos questionable for this game, while LB Danny Trevathan (knee) and RB Montee Ball (groin) were both recently placed on season-ending IR.

For the Bengals, LB Vontaze Burfict (knee) landed on IR last week, and four others are listed as questionable for Monday night -- TE Jermaine Gresham (toe), WR James Wright (knee), CB Terence Newman (ankle) and DE Margus Hunt (ankle).

The Broncos have won four straight games and they have done so behind the excellent running of RB C.J. Anderson (679 rush yards, 4 TD). Anderson has been a workhorse for the Broncos recently, carrying the football at least 21 times in each of the past four games. He has four rushing touchdowns in that span and another score through the air.

If this team is going to win though, it will need QB Peyton Manning (4,143 pass yards, 37 TD, 11 INT) to snap out of his recent funk. Manning has thrown for just one touchdown with two picks over the past two games, and he’s failed to reach 200 yards in two of the past three games as well. Manning's main receiver is WR Demaryius Thomas (96 rec, 1,389 yards, 11 TD), who had six catches for 123 yards and a touchdown in a win over the Chargers last week. He now has five touchdowns over the past four games, and is going to be extremely difficult for the Bengals to stop on Monday.

With the offense struggling, the Denver defense has picked up the slack in allowing 17 or less points in each of the past three weeks. If this unit continues to hold opponents below 100 rushing yards like it has done in 10 of the past 11 games, it will be really tough for teams to beat the Broncos in the postseason.

Cincinnati is on a roll recently with wins in four of its past five games, and one of the main reasons for that has been RB Jeremy Hill (877 rush yards, 8 TD). Last week against the Browns, Hill rushed for 148 of his team's season-high 244 rushing yards with two touchdowns. Cincinnati is moving away from RB Giovani Bernard (636 rush yards, 5 TD) and giving Hill a boatload of the carries in this offense. He could struggle to find holes against this elite Broncos rushing defense, though.

QB Andy Dalton (3,008 pass yards, 15 TD, 14 INT) is going to need to play a good game for this team to have any chance of beating the Broncos. Dalton threw for just 117 yards with no touchdowns and one interception against the Browns, but he will not be able to do the same against Denver and still pick up a victory. He must limit his turnovers and make plays when his team needs him most.

WR A.J. Green (61 rec, 959 yards, 6 TD) is about as good of a target as a quarterback could ask for. Green had just five catches for 49 yards against Cleveland, but he caught 11 passes for 224 yards and a touchdown the week before against Pittsburgh. Dalton would be wise to look Green's way often in this game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SNF - Seahawks at Cardinals

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (10-4) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (11-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line Seattle -7.5, Total: 36

The Seahawks will be going for their fifth straight victory and the NFC West division lead when they visit the Cardinals on Sunday night.

Seattle has allowed just 27 points during its four-game win streak (SU and ATS), which included a 17-7 win as a 9.5-point home favorite over the 49ers last week. Arizona has allowed just 20 points during a two-game win surge (SU and ATS) that included a 12-6 victory as a 6-point road underdog in St. Louis last Thursday.

These teams met in Seattle four weeks ago and the home team won 19-3 as a 7-point favorite. Should the Seahawks pull off the season sweep this Sunday, they will take over the top spot in the division. Although they are 3-2 (SU and ATS) against the Cardinals over the past three seasons, Arizona has won-and-covered in two straight home games against Seattle.

Third-string QB Ryan Lindley will start for the Cardinals in this game, and will face the top-ranked defense in football. The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive Unders over the past two seasons, and are also 6-0 ATS in road games after having won six or seven of their past eight games over the past three seasons. However, Arizona is 6-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better this season, and 11-2 ATS after having won four or five of its past six games over the past two seasons.

Seattle's injury list is pretty thin, but both C Max Unger (knee) and OT Russell Okung (lung) are doubtful, while TE Cooper Helfet (ankle) is questionable. For the Cardinals, WR John Brown (toe), S Tyrann Mathieu (thumb) and G Paul Fanaika (ankle) are all questionable, while DE Ed Stinson (toe) landed on IR earlier in the week.

The Seahawks have been extremely hot as of late and their defense has been the main reason for that. Over the past four weeks, Seattle has allowed just 6.8 PPG, and they are amongst the top-five in the NFL in both passing and rushing defense. This team is more than happy grinding games out, and it is able to do so with a defense that does not allow a lot of points. It also helps to have the league’s top-ranked rushing offense (169 YPG).

RB Marshawn Lynch (1,133 rush yards, 10 TD) ran for 91 yards and a touchdown in a win over the 49ers last week, and has now galloped for at least 85 yards in five of the past six games. But he could struggle to run against an Arizona defense that is allowing only 90.4 rushing yards per game (6th in NFL).

QB Russell Wilson (2,897 pass yards, 18 TD, 6 INT) is the guy that is most likely to do the damage against this defense, as Arizona is allowing 259.6 passing yards per game (29th in NFL), and Wilson is a nightmare to defend with his ability to throw when he is out of the pocket. Wilson will just need to take care of the football, as Arizona will have a hard time moving the ball with its depleted offense.

The Cardinals continue to win games despite suffering injuries to their most important positions. QB Ryan Lindley (0 TD, 7 INT in career) will now be the signal caller for this team and he is not the type of guy that a coach should feel comfortable starting. That is especially the case for a team that is heading to the playoffs and could have home-field advantage throughout. Lindley’s job now will be to take care of the football and manage games because his defense will do its part in keeping games close. In last week's game in St. Louis, he completed only 4-of-10 passes for 30 yards and 0 TD, but also threw zero interceptions.

The tough part for this offense is that it is also extremely weak at the running back position with top RB Andre Ellington (1,055 total yards, 5 total TD) on IR with a hip injury. RB Kerwynn Williams is the team’s new starting running back and he has now rushed for 175 yards in just two games. Williams has some good burst, but it will be extremely tough for him to find any room to run against this relentless Seahawks defense. If the Cardinals are going to win this game, they’ll need to shut down Russell Wilson.

Arizona’s defense is excellent at stopping the run, but they have really struggled to slow down opposing quarterbacks. The only chance of winning this game is if it’s a defensive slugfest.