Sunday 10/9/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: New England Patriots (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-4)

Date: October 09, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- It's business as usual again with the New England Patriots.

On Monday morning, after the Patriots dropped to 3-1 with a shutout home loss to the Buffalo Bills, Tom Brady walked back into Gillette Stadium, his four-game Deflategate suspension over.

So did Rob Ninkovich, also suspended for four games, for using an illegal substance.

"It was four weeks and it felt like it went fast, and Tommy is ready to go and looks ready to go," offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said Tuesday. " ... We'll see how everything goes tomorrow at practice and kind of just build one day at a time as we go through the week."

The Patriots head into Cleveland for a meeting with the winless Browns on Sunday -- seemingly a perfect opponent for Brady's return.

Monday night, speaking with Jim Gray on Westwood One, Brady said: "I'm not really looking to reflect at this point. I've put that in the rearview mirror when I decided a while ago.

"I am looking forward to playing and doing what I love to do, and being out there with my teammates who have done such a great job and I want to do a great job for them. I'm just focused on the present and focused on this week. That is what I am going to be all season long. It served me well in the past and hopefully it serves me well this week."

Sunday, he will go against defensive coordinator Ray Horton, the five-time Super Bowl assistant back for his second stint with the Browns.

The Patriots have seen him before, with Tennessee, Arizona and Pittsburgh.

Brady's return comes with Patriots fans waiting to see when tight end Rob Gronkowski returns to form. After missing two games because of a hamstring injury, he has played the last two games but has been used mostly for blocking -- catching his first pass of the season against Buffalo.

Gronk says he's healthy but was seen going downfield only two or three times last Sunday.

The Browns are 0-4 under new coach Hue Jackson, but they lead the league in rushing, which is where the reinstated Ninkovich comes in.

The Patriots, who traded Chandler Jones in the offseason, then lost Ninkovich to suspension and Dont'a Hightower for two-plus games to injury, have had their problems at times on defense this season.

The Browns, the only winless team in the NFL, picked up Robert Griffin III during the offseason to run the offense but he was lost in the first game, leaving Cody Kessler as the starting quarterback.

Cleveland has been snowed under by injuries and turnovers.

"I didn't think it would be this difficult," the positive-thinking Jackson said with a smile this week. "It's tough, but I'm seeing a lot of young guys improve. We're just not seeing what I want to see, and what the team wants to see, on the other side of the ledger."

The Patriots produced seven turnovers in their wins in Weeks 2 and 3, but were not able to turn the Bills over while being shut out at home for the first time since 1993 -- in Buffalo's first road shutout since 1990.

The Browns and Patriots have dealt with losses at quarterback and on the offensive line, but now the Patriots get Brady back -- probably with a huge chip on his shoulder. The Browns just have to march on, trying to get something -- anything -- done.

"It's crazy, man," wide receiver Terrelle Pryor said. "We're battling our butts off. I don't know if it's us not being able to catch a break.

"We practice hard. This is a very good team. I believe we're going to keep on making strides and we're going to win games. But it's crazy how so many times we're up and we're beating them, and then something goes wrong."

In talking about facing the Cleveland offense, the New England coaches have talked about the difficulty dealing with running back Isaiah Crowell, who has rushed for 332 yards in the last three games.

"This is really a very good back," defensive coordinator Matt Patricia of the Patriots said. "He has tremendous speed, he can get to the edge and break the big runs.

"They obviously have a very explosive running game, one of the best run games in the league."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: New York Jets (1-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

Date: October 09, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

The numbers certainly aren't encouraging for the New York Jets, who stumble into their Week 5 game at the Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) on Sunday with a 1-3 record through the first quarter of the season.

Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown nine interceptions over the past two games, has 11 turnovers overall on the season, and a defense that has allowed 17 completions of 20-plus yards and seven of 40-plus through four games may be minus cornerback Darrelle Revis, who is dealing with a hamstring injury. It's an ominous backdrop entering Heinz Field, where Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 18 touchdown passes over his past five games -- including at least three in each of those outings and five against Kansas City last Sunday night.

Then there's the historical weight: only 14 percent of the teams to begin a season 1-3 since 1990 have gone on to reach the playoffs. Still, coach Todd Bowles believes the Jets can compete with anyone as his team prepares for the Steelers before returning home to face the reigning NFC West champion Arizona Cardinals.

"We're close," said Bowles, whose team has been outscored by a combined score of 51-20 over the past two weeks. "We've made some plays. We made some strides from the Kansas City game to the last game. We've got to clean up some mistakes. We can't beat ourselves."

The Jets enter Sunday's game with a minus-10 turnover margin, while the Steelers are plus-1 on the season and riding high on a wave of confidence after a 43-14 beat down of the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4. The Steelers are well-balanced on offense, and may lean more on the two-headed ground game of Le'Veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams to protect Roethlisberger from a very talented defensive line.

Pittsburgh has struggled in protection at times this season, and the offensive line was banged up in the Kansas City game.

Steelers left guard Ramon Foster could miss his second consecutive game due to a chest injury, while coach Mike Tomlin deemed right tackle Marcus Gilbert as "highly questionable" with an ankle injury suffered against the Chiefs. Gilbert's backup, Ryan Harris, also left that game with a leg injury. That could leave former undrafted rookie and practice squad member B.J. Finney at left guard and untested Chris Hubbard at right tackle to deal with a defensive line that features Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, Leonard Williams and former Steeler Steve McLendon.

"We have faith and trust and belief in whoever the next man up is," Roethlisberger said. "We've been able to do that and proven that over the years here. Guys prepare themselves to be ready to go. We'll have faith and trust in whoever needs to be out there.

"With that being said, we're not going to be ridiculous. If there are times when we have to help someone's way, we'll do it."

The Jets have to get to -- and bring down -- Roethlisberger quickly because every cornerback is allowing completions on at least two-thirds of the passes thrown his direction. Marcus Williams is the best of the lot giving up a 67 percent completion rate, and the Jets will be exposed any time Roethlisberger has time in the pocket or is able to extend plays.

"I think it's issues (where) some guys aren't as vocal when they need to be," Bowles said of the communication breakdowns the secondary has continued to experience. "Those are things that can easily be cleaned up and they see it on film. We see it on the sidelines and we have some things in place to try and take care of that.

"One hand washes the other, but the biggest thing is we can't have guys running free in the secondary. I can see if they're getting beat one-on-one or those types of things. We have guys running free in the secondary and we can't have that."

One way the Steelers combat aggressive defensive fronts is to maximize Bell's versatility. Returning from his three-game suspension last week, he lined up in the backfield, in the slot and even split wide as a receiver. Playing for the first time since a season-ending knee injury last Nov. 1, Bell played in 52 of a possible 59 snaps against the Chiefs.

"It's pretty unique," Tomlin said. "But we're going to see a guy in (Jets running back) Matt Forte who's probably done it for over a decade. I thought a lot about Matt Forte as I stood at Le'Veon Bell's pro day and watched his balanced skill-set. In the running game, in the passing game, route running, ball handling and so forth. I thought about Matt Forte a lot, so we're excited about having Le'Veon Bell at our disposal. But, we also understand what we're facing on the other side of the ball as we go into the stadium this week."

Forte's versatility is equally important to the Jets. In addition to leading the team with 288 yards and three touchdowns on 81 carries, Forte has teamed with backup Bilal Powell to catch 26 passes for 186 yards. Utilizing safe underneath routes can help Fitzpatrick establish a rhythm and some confidence after appearing tentative against Seattle last week following a six-interception outing the previous week.

The Jets are also short-handed at receiver, with Eric Decker and Jalin Marshall still recovering from shoulder injuries that sidelined them last week. With teams focusing on Brandon Marshall, Quincy Enunwa leads the team with 23 catches for 243 yards and a touchdown. Fitzpatrick is also increasingly looking to stretch the field to speedy rookie Robby Anderson, who got past Seahawks Pro Bowl cornerback Richard Sherman last week only to have Fitzpatrick over-throw him.

If there's a silver lining to the historically dim playoff aspirations of 1-3 teams, it may be that the Jets have done it twice -- in 1991 and 2002. And the Chiefs reached the postseason after beginning last season 1-5.

"We've shown that we can play against playoff teams," Marshall said. "But we haven't shown that we can beat them yet."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Washington Redskins (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1)

Date: October 09, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh and his players downplayed the notion they have a rivalry with the Washington Redskins.

Although their stadiums are separated by just 33 miles, the Ravens and Redskins simply don't play enough to have any type of enmity for one another. Furthermore, Washington is playing a game in Baltimore for just the second time in the Ravens' history.

Still, the week's matchup is huge for both teams.

Harbaugh is hoping the Ravens (3-1) can bounce back from a disappointing home loss to Oakland in Week 4. The Redskins (2-2), meanwhile, have won two straight games and are looking to carry that momentum into M&T Bank Stadium.

"It's a game that we need to win in our house -- period," Harbaugh said. "It's a one-week league, as one of our players just said to our team. It's a one-week league, and the only thing we have to think about right now is this game, playing this team and what they do. Of course, it's a team we have respect for. We know what we're going to get with physicality and all of that stuff."

The Ravens have the NFL's top defense, allowing just 256 yards per game. That unit has gotten a bigger boost with linebackers Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil back in the lineup. Baltimore will try to keep constant pressure on Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins, who is ranked sixth in the league with 1,172 passing yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions.

"I think he is progressing nicely," Washington coach Jay Gruden said about Cousins. "I think there are still some areas of improvement, without a doubt. As every quarterback will say after every game, there are going to be areas where he wants to improve situational awareness, taking a sack along the way, whatever it might be. I think there are areas he will want to do better."

While the Redskins' offense has been solid, the defense has struggled. Washington is ranked 30th in the NFL, allowing 4.9 yards per carry.

Baltimore will look to exploit that weakness. Terrance West will likely get the start after he had a breakout game against Raiders, running for a career-high 113 yards on 21 carries with a touchdown. Baltimore's depth chart at running back gets another addition this week with the return of rookie Kenneth Dixon, who has been out with a knee injury. Dixon was the Ravens' top runner over the preseason and he enters the game with high expectations surrounding him.

"I just feel like I have to get out there and do the best job I can do," Dixon said. "It's get the ball, read my one key and hit the hole as hard as I can. If that sparks us, it does. I'm just going to get out there and do my best."

Javorius "Buck" Allen, a fourth-round pick from USC in 2015, will also get some opportunities to run the ball.

Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco will also look to take some shots deep downfield. The Ravens passing game has been a work in progress and is tied with Miami for 16th in the NFL with 1,008 total yards.

"I think we're definitely finding our stride a little bit," Flacco said. "We just need to put together four quarters of football. We haven't done it yet. I think we have the ability to, obviously. I definitely think we're close, and we're getting there."

This game also reunites Ravens wide receiver Steve Smith and Washington cornerback Josh Norman, whom were teammates with the Carolina Panthers. Norman expects a physical matchup, and even admitted that Smith was among the best trash-talkers in the league.

"I grew up playing him, so you kind of already know that," Norman said. "If you want to take the competitive drive or the ego when it comes to being the best at what he does, then yes. Just me and him going back and forth at practice every day. Trust me, I'm very well doctored in that."

The Ravens lead the all-time series 3-2.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Tennessee Titans (1-3) at Miami Dolphins (1-3)

Date: October 09, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

DAVIE, Fla. -- The Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins are off to awful starts -- each team is 1-3 and tied for last place in their respective division. They meet on Sunday at Miami's renovated Hard Rock Stadium.

"We have to put out a better product than we showed the last time we were out there," said Dolphins first-year coach Adam Gase. "That's what this season is going to be about for us, we've got to keep getting better every week. That's going to be key to us. If we do that, that gives us our best chance."

The Dolphins shifted their practice schedule this week with Hurricane Matthew forecast to make landfall in South Florida on Thursday afternoon. The NFL is monitoring the storm and Gase said player and fan safety was the top priority, not keeping with the plan to play a game in Miami Gardens on Sunday.

A final option would include moving the game to Nashville, but neither team expected that to happen at midweek.

Things are far from routine around Titans headquarters after another poor start.

Titans coach Mike Mularkey has already hit the panic button, firing special teams coach Bobby April just four games into the season.

"I'm not putting all the blame on Bobby," said Mularkey, who fired April on Monday.

April is a long-time assistant, twice named Special Teams Coach of the Year.

April, who was replaced by Steve Hoffman, who is in his 27th NFL season and his fourth with Tennessee, lost his job after the Titans had 12 men on the field on a Houston second-quarter punt that turned into a Texans field goal last week. In the third quarter, Houston burned Tennessee for a 67-yard punt return for a touchdown.

Those two plays cost Tennessee 10 points in a 27-20 loss within the AFC South Division that the Texans lead with a 3-1 record.

The Dolphins are in similarly desperate shape, somehow trailing AFC East leader New England by two games just four weeks into the season despite the fact that the Patriots have been using their second- and third-string quarterbacks.

Tom Brady is back from a four-game suspension this week when New England visits the Browns.

Gase is hopeful the Dolphins can turn their fortunes with a four-game homestand.

The Titans are 1-3 for the third straight year and the fourth time in the past five seasons.

Last year, coach Ken Whisenhunt started 1-6 for the Titans before getting fired. Mularkey, an assistant under Whisenhunt, was promoted to interim coach. He is catching heat after beating the Detroit Lions to open the season and then losing three in a row entering Miami.

The Titans have lost to three teams with a combined 9-2 record -- Minnesota, Oakland and Houston -- and the past two defeats have gone down to the last possession.

The rest of Tennessee's October schedule should ease up. After Miami, the Titans play host to the Cleveland Browns (0-4), the Indianapolis Colts (1-3) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3).

Miami won its only home game, but it was against the Browns, and the Dolphins needed overtime to prevail after Cleveland's backup kicker missed a field goal that would have won them the game at the end of regulation.

Neither Miami nor Tennessee has shown the ability to score effectively this season. The Dolphins are averaging just 17.8 points, which ranks 28th in the NFL. The Titans are averaging 15.5 points and are dead last, 32nd.

One of Miami's problems has been the running game. Gase, who calls the plays, has not shown a commitment to the run, especially with opening game starter Arian Foster (groin) out the past two games. Gase called just 13 runs and got 62 yards last game against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Clearly, Gase would rather pass the ball, but Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill takes a lot of sacks (11 so far) and has been intercepted five times.

In Gase's defense, management didn't leave him with much at running back when they let speedy Lamar Miller -- a 1,000-yard runner in his prime -- go via free agency.

The Dolphins planned to replace him with Jay Ajayi, a second-year back who has not proven to be ready. Foster has not been available. The Dolphins have started Kenyan Drake twice and Damien Williams once. Ajayi is back from suspension, and Isaiah Pead is also getting carries.

"We will try to narrow it down," Gase said, noting Foster returned to the practice field for individual work and looked good Wednesday. "(Having multiple running backs) is hard on the offensive line and on the backs and on myself as a play-caller."

The Titans, unlike the Dolphins, have a good situation at running back with veteran starter DeMarco Murray (340 yards, 5.2 average) and promising rookie Derrick Henry (97 yards, 3.7 average).

"We have to do a great job of making sure that we're disciplined on defense, making sure we're gang-tackling," Gase said. "When we have a chance to get him down, get him down. Don't let him break a tackle. We have to be swarming to the ball. When he has his big games, it's because you have one-on-one and he ends up running a guy over or making a guy miss. So we have to play team defense against him."

Tennessee ranks fourth in the NFL with 127 rushing yards per game. But the Titans rank 27th in the league with 221.0 passing yards.

Tennessee's Marcus Mariota, 22, was the second pick in the 2015 draft. He has been intercepted five times and sacked seven times this season but is also a threat to run with 72 yards and a 5.5-yard average.

"I think we all have to get better," Mularkey said. "Not just Marcus."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at Detroit Lions (1-3)

Date: October 09, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

DETROIT -- The Philadelphia Eagles have gotten off to a memorable start under new coach Doug Pederson. He would prefer for them to forget it ever happened.

The Eagles were the most surprising success story during the opening month of the season, dismissing three opponents by a combined score of 92-27 despite starting rookie Carson Wentz at quarterback. That included a stunning 34-3 pummeling of Pittsburgh prior to their bye Week 4.

They return with a road game against the stumbling Detroit Lions, who have lost three straight. Philadelphia is one of three remaining unbeaten teams, along with Denver and Minnesota.

"Really, in my opinion, our season starts now," Pederson said. "What we've done already is great. We're in a good position but we need to buckle down and prepare as if this is Week One."

Wentz became the starter when Sam Bradford was traded to the Vikings just before the regular season. He has justified the team's faith in him, completing 64.7 percent of his pass attempts and throwing for five touchdowns without an interception.

"I'm going to continue to coach him up, coach him hard and try to put him in the best possible situations on Sunday, where he's not having to hold the ball a long time," Pederson said. "We'll utilize the run game, play-action passes, all that stuff you've seen in the first three games and keep that formula."

The offense should get a boost from the return of starting running back Ryan Mathews and tight end Zach Ertz. Mathews only had two carries against the Steelers before exiting with an ankle injury. Wendell Smallwood rushed for 79 yards and a touchdown in his absence.

"Ryan is still our primary guy, he's our go-to guy," Pederson said. "If he's 100 percent we'll go with Ryan and mix the other guys in according to the gameplan."

Ertz sat out the last two games after suffering a displaced rib during the opener but has been cleared to play and returned to practice on Monday. He has six catches for 58 yards in 2016. Philadelphia's leading receiver has been wideout Jordan Matthews with 15 receptions for 204 yards and two touchdowns.

But there are some looming issues for Philadelphia.

Linebacker Nigel Bradham could be facing a suspension after he was arrested for bringing a loaded gun to Miami International Airport over the weekend. Offensive tackle Lane Johnson is facing a 10-game suspension for taking a banned substance, pending the results of his appeal, which took place earlier this week.

Very little has gone right for the Lions since their opening-day victory at Indianapolis. They lost a late lead to Tennessee in their only home game thus far, then fell to division rivals Green Bay and Chicago.

The 17-14 defeat to the injury-ravaged Bears, who were without their starting quarterback, top two running backs and several key defenders, was particularly troubling.

All this has put coach Jim Caldwell on the hot seat.

"You know that's one of those things that we don't worry about," he said. "My job is to coach this team and to get this team headed in the right direction."

The Lions have been held to 66 and 50 yards rushing, respectively, over the last two games after starting running back Ameer Abdullah was sidelined with a foot injury.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford couldn't overcome the lack of running game in Chicago, throwing for just 213 yards and getting picked off twice. He's eager to turn things around.

"Honestly, after you play like we did in Chicago that's the first thing I want to do, get back on the field," he said. "I wish we could practice after the flight home. But, practice is all just leading up to Sunday. We're preparing to try and play better this Sunday than we did last Sunday, and we need to, we have to."

Getting underperforming wide receiver Golden Tate more involved could help the cause. Tate had just one catch against the Bears, caught an earful from Stafford after a miscommunication led to an interception and was benched for part of the game.

Detroit's pass rush has been mostly ineffective since premier defensive end Ziggy Ansah left the Titans game in the first quarter with a high ankle sprain. He's questionable to return this week.

The teams met last Thanksgiving, with Detroit romping to a 45-14 victory.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Chicago Bears (1-3) at Indianapolis Colts (1-3)

Date: October 09, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

Chicago Bears linebacker Jerrell Freeman does not need to study film to learn the strengths of Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck.

After all, Freeman spent the previous four seasons as Luck's teammate with the Colts.

"I really think he's one of those once-in-a-generation type players," said Freeman, who signed with the Bears as a free agent during the offseason. "Talking to him, you realize he's one of the smartest people you'll ever be around. His athletic ability, his arm and everything, I think highly of him.

"He's definitely going to be tough. They can be down 30, and -- trust me, I know -- those guys over there think they always have a chance if they've got (No.) 12 back there."

Granted, odds are slim that either team will build a 30-point lead when the Bears (1-3) visit the Colts (1-3) on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, FOX). Neither team's start to the season has gone as planned, and both sides need a win to climb toward .500 and prevent their playoff chances from diminishing even further.

Indianapolis is averaging 27 points per game, which ranks No. 7 in the NFL. Defense is another story, as the Colts are allowing 31.3 points per game, third worst in the league.

On offense, Chicago is managing only 15.5 points a game, which is tied with the Tennessee Titans for worst in the NFL. The Bears' defense is allowing 24.3 points a game, which ranks No. 19.

Chicago is coming off its first win of the season, a 17-14 decision over the Detroit Lions. However, the victory carried a heavy price as wide receiver Kevin White, the team's 2015 first-round pick, broke his left fibula and badly sprained his left ankle. White missed all of last season because of injuries to the same leg.

White joins a long list of injured Bears teammates that includes quarterback Jay Cutler (thumb), running back Jeremy Langford (ankle) and defensive tackle Eddie Goldman (ankle). One starter who could return is linebacker Danny Trevathan, who missed the past two games because of a thumb injury.

If Cutler is unable to play, veteran Brian Hoyer would make his third consecutive start. Hoyer faced the Colts last season while with the Houston Texans. He threw for 312 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in a 27-20 loss.

"When you look at them defensively, they have the guys," Hoyer said of the Texans. "I think numbers can be deceiving at times."

Like the Bears, the Colts know all about aches and pains, but their biggest problem might be bruised feelings after entering the season with high hopes. The team released two defensive starters -- linebacker Sio Moore and cornerback Antonio Cromartie -- following an ugly 30-27 loss against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week in London.

In the past, the Colts prevented bad games from transforming into long losing streaks. The organization is 18-7 in the first game after a loss under coach Chuck Pagano.

"Everybody's going to have an opinion, and that's great," Luck said. "But we know we just have to execute better. Whatever's called, we've got to run it better.

"I think there's a human tendency to (want) change, change, change. We know you can't afford to do that in the NFL. There's no cutting everything and throwing it out. It's double down on fundamentals, technique and execution."

In the Colts' backfield, running back Frank Gore needs 20 rushing yards to surpass Jim Brown (12,312) for No. 9 on the NFL's all-time list. Gore's next touchdown will tie him with Terry Allen (73) for 27th in history.

As Gore aims for milestones, Bears running back Jordan Howard is preparing for the second start of his career. The fifth-round pick out of Indiana was terrific in his first start one week ago as he ran for 111 yards on 23 carries. With 178 rushing yards on the season, Howard trails only the Dallas Cowboys' Ezekiel Elliott among rookies.

Colts defensive tackle Arthur Jones would like to prevent Howard from enjoying an encore performance. Jones rejoined his teammates this week after serving a four-game suspension for violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing drugs.

"I've been working, though," Jones said. "It's not like I've just been sitting on the couch. ...

"We grind every single day. I had a couple guys to work out with. Whenever they tell me my time is right to be on the field, I'll be ready to go."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: San Diego Chargers (1-3) at Oakland Raiders (3-1)

Date: October 09, 2016 4:25 PM EDT

The Oakland Raiders are displaying that they plan to be a factor in the AFC West.

The San Diego Chargers can't say the same because of a penchant for blowing fourth-quarter leads.

San Diego (1-3) has blown three leads in the game's final five minutes and aims to halt a nine-game division losing streak when it visits the Raiders on Sunday (4:25 p.m., CBS).

While the Chargers couldn't figure out how to protect another lead, Oakland (3-1) rallied for a road victory in Baltimore last Sunday, revealing the clutch gene that San Diego seems to lack.

Raiders quarterback Derek Carr tossed a 23-yard touchdown pass to receiver Michael Crabtree with 2:12 remaining to provide Oakland with a 28-27 victory. Coach Jack Del Rio sees the comeback as another sign of the progression of Carr, who threw four touchdown passes in the win.

"He is a guy that is very well-prepared," Del Rio said. "He's really, I think, taken a step forward in terms of emotional control, the poise to be, kind of, surgeon-like and just be accurate with the ball and let his playmakers do their thing.

"So, it's a combination of things but I think he's definitely taken a step forward for us."

Meanwhile, San Diego is heading backwards as it can't close out games under beleaguered coach Mike McCoy.

The Chargers blew a 13-point lead while losing to New Orleans 35-34 last Sunday. Running back Melvin Gordon and receiver Travis Benjamin each lost fourth-quarter fumbles to set the stage for the team's latest collapse.

San Diego also let fourth-quarter leads get away in losses to Kansas City and Indianapolis.

"There's 53 minutes of some good football and then unfortunately we turned the ball over twice there to give them a great opportunity to do what they did," McCoy said of the Saints' game. "You're furious when you watch because you see all the positives, but then there's the blowups.

"We can put it on two plays, but that's not the only reason. There's a number of times during the games. Like I told the players, that's every week. There's so many things we can do better."

The setbacks have increased speculation that McCoy's job is in jeopardy, but the fourth-year coach said he isn't worried about being dismissed.

San Diego's injury-riddled roster took another hit Wednesday, when Pro Bowl cornerback Jason Verrett said he would miss the rest of the season with a partially torn ACL in his left knee.

"The feeling I had in my knee, I knew something wasn't right but I have the mindset of being out there," Verrett said. "Then getting the results, it was crushing. It was tough, but I knew something wasn't right."

The loss of Verrett and the probable absence of veteran cornerback Brandon Flowers (concussion) will make it harder for the Chargers to halt the Oakland passing game.

Carr has passed for 1,066 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception. Crabtree, who has 26 catches for 308 yards, had a career-best three touchdowns against the Ravens and is tied for the NFL lead with four scoring receptions.

"He was so committed to making sure he made so many plays for me that I would always look his way -- that's what he wants and so far, he's done that," Carr said. "You have to give him credit. The guy's worked his tail off and he's super competitive to get to where he's at to where if it's one-on-one, he's a great matchup."

The Raiders have struggled on the defensive side and are allowing a league-worst 460.0 yards per game. Standout defensive end Khalil Mack finally recorded his first sack of the season against Baltimore after posting 15 last season.

San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers has passed for 1,110 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception despite losing standout receiver Keenan Allen (knee) for the season. Gordon leads the NFL with six rushing touchdowns after not finding the end zone as a rookie, but he is averaging a paltry 3.2 yards per carry.

First-round pick Joey Bosa, the defensive end from Ohio State, is expected to make his NFL debut for the Chargers.

San Diego's most-recent win over an AFC West foe came against the Raiders 13-6 on Nov. 16, 2014. The Chargers lost their final two division games that season, went 0-6 versus the AFC West last season, and lost to Kansas City in this season's opener.

The Raiders averaged 30 points while sweeping last season's two meetings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Atlanta Falcons (3-1) at Denver Broncos (4-0)

Date: October 09, 2016 4:05 PM EDT

In what is easily the marquee matchup of Week 5 in the NFL, the 3-1 Atlanta Falcons fly into Sports Authority Field at Mile High to take on the undefeated Denver Broncos.

The Falcons are currently one of the best teams in the NFC and lead the NFC South by two games. The Broncos are the only team in the AFC that has not sustained a loss.

The Falcons' offense comes into this game on a high. Quarterback Matt Ryan threw for 503 yards and four touchdowns against the Carolina Panthers in Week 4. Wide receiver Julio Jones had 300 yards receiving.

This is the first time in NFL history a quarterback/wide receiver duo had 500 yards passing and 300 yards receiving in the same game. That is rarefied air. Not unlike the altitude the Falcons will be playing in Sunday in Denver.

"We are hitting on all cylinders as far as the passing game because we had a great week last week in the run game. Carolina figured they were going to come out here and stop the run game and they tried to do that. They left me one-on-one out there and we made some explosive plays down the field," the three-time Pro Bowl selection Jones said.

The Falcons' passing attack of Ryan to Jones will face a distinctly different test this weekend. Atlanta's No. 1-ranked passing attack in the NFL will face the No. 2 pass defense of the Broncos. The Falcons average 354.2 yards passing per game. The offense has scored 152 points to lead the league. With Ryan leading the aerial attack, the team has 21 pass plays of more than 20 yards.

In contrast, the Broncos' defense designed by defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has only allowed an average of 169.5 yards through the air. The secondary, led by cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr., has only allowed six passes of 20-plus yards and zero of 40 yards or more. The Denver defense also leads the NFL in sacks with 17 this season.

One of the main in-game battles to focus on will be Atlanta's Jones going up against Talib. Both have Pro Bowl credentials. Both players are physical players at the line of scrimmage and when the football is in the air.

Jones enters the game leading the NFL in receiving with 488 yards. Talib is tied for second in the NFL with three interceptions. Jones and Talib have a history of facing each other.

In a 30-23 New England Patriots win over the Falcons in 2013, Talib covered Jones almost exclusively. The cornerback defended four passes and added an interception. The winner of this matchup could go a long way in determining the outcome of this game.

The Falcons' offensive line has played well all season and has only allowed nine sacks. The front five, led by center Alex Mack, will need to play strong against the best sacking team in the NFL.

"I think all five of those guys have really played extremely well through the first quarter of the season," Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan said. "An offensive line is all about the chemistry. I think we've got a good group of five guys that are playing really good ball right now."

The Broncos have their own defensive chemistry in outside linebacker Von Miller, who leads the NFL with 5.5 sacks, and defensive end Derek Wolfe, who has four sacks. While Miller has all the commercials, the big contact and the notoriety, Wolfe's teammates rave about him.

"He's the anchor up front. He stops the run. He can rush the passer. We love Wolfe, man. He's definitely a Pro Bowl guy, I think. He just goes unnoticed because we have so many stars on our team," Harris said.

Both of the Broncos' quarterbacks, Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch, played in the win over the Buccaneers. Siemian was knocked out of the game with a left shoulder injury, but head coach Gary Kubiak expects the second-year signal caller to start against the Falcons. However, Kubiak isn't ruling out having the rookie Lynch ready either.

He said, "We're probably going to need them both. It's just kind of the nature of the business now-a-days. Here we are, four weeks into the season, and we've used them both to get to where we're at. It's exciting to watch both of them grow and both of them prepare each week. I think they both have bright futures. That's great for our organization."

The Broncos have been solid on offense but not spectacular. The main key has been their lack of turnovers. Denver is plus-three in turnover ratio and will need to protect the football against a Falcons defense that has caused five turnovers. Four of those turnovers have been interceptions. Whichever quarterback plays for Denver will need to be leery of cornerback Robert Alford, who has two interceptions this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Los Angeles Rams (3-1)

Date: October 09, 2016 4:25 PM EDT

When discussing high-potent offenses in the NFL, no one will ever bring up the 2016 Buffalo Bills or the Los Angeles Rams. But the two teams that will be facing off in the Los Angeles Coliseum this Sunday are playing very good defense and winning football games.

The Bills, flying across the country for the first of three West-Coast visits, enter the game on a two-game winning streak. Those two wins came against many pundits picks for a Super Bowl LI matchup, the Arizona Cardinals and the New England Patriots.

The Rams are tied for the lead of the NFC West with the Seattle Seahawks at 3-1 but hold a victory over their division rival. Los Angeles has won three straight games, and though none of the victories were pretty, they all count as wins.

Said Rams quarterback Case Keenum, "I think good teams win the close games. I think that is this league. If you go across the board, every week I think most games, if not all of them, are one- or two-possession games. Some may be determined by a field goal or two.

"You see time and time again that the good teams win those games. They find a way to do it. It doesn't matter how, it matters how many at the end of the day. For us to find a way to get it done is a step in the right direction."

Statistically, Los Angeles is not a good team on offense.

The Rams are 30th overall in passing and own the worst overall offense in the NFL. They average 269 yards a game which is 21.5 yards behind the 31st worst team, the Minnesota Vikings who average 290.5 yards a game.

The Bills are not much better.

Buffalo has the 31st ranked passing attack in the NFL and ranks 28th in overall offense. The Bills average 307 yards of offense per contest. Where the Bills offense separates itself from the Rams offense is the run game. The Bills are seventh in rushing in the NFL with 123.2 yards a game. The Rams, with ballyhooed runner Todd Gurley, are 30th with 76.8 yards averaged on the ground.

This contest will be decided by the defenses and special teams play. Buffalo is coming off a shutout of the Patriots and the Rams stifling defense held a high tempo Arizona Cardinals offense to 13 points in the Week 4 win.

"We started off 2-1, but to be 3-1, I think it puts a different light on the team. I think that was great for us as an organization and a team," Rams linebacker Mark Barron said.

The play of Barron and fellow linebacker Alec Ogletree is one of the reasons Los Angeles has their current record. Barron has 29 tackles with seven passes defensed and two interceptions. Ogletree, the new leader of the defense, leads the team with 36 total tackles.

The defensive front, led by Pro Bowl defensive tackle Aaron Donald, has consistently put pressure on the quarterback the last three weeks. This week, that unit will need to help contain the Bills ground attack. Running back LeSean McCoy is 10th in the NFL in rushing with 297 yards rushing. The former Philadelphia Eagle has a 4.4 yard average and three rushing scores on the young season.

Conversely, a linebacker for the Bills has stepped up his game as well and been the catalyst to the upswing in Buffalo's defense. Linebacker Zach Brown became the starter when rookie Reggie Ragland blew out his knee in training camp. After four weeks of the 2016 season, Brown leads the NFL with 52 tackles and he had an 18-tackle performance against the Patriots to go along with two forced fumbles and a sack.

"It's a great win. My D-Line, I give them my hats off. They kept the offensive line off us. Me and Preston (Brown) were just free, running around making tackles," said Zach Brown of his epic game in New England. This was Zach Brown's third straight double-digit tackle game.

The Bills defense is hoping to be the reason the Rams rushing attack continues to struggle. Gurley, the much maligned runner for the Rams, only has 216 rushing yards on the season. His 2.6 yard average is the worst in the NFL for any player with over 33 attempts. Gurley has rushed the football the fourth most with 82 attempts. The Bills defense held New England running back LeGarrette Blount, who came into the Week 4 game as the NFL's leading rusher, to only 54 yards.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1)

Date: October 09, 2016 4:25 PM EDT

When the Dallas Cowboys began practice preparations Wednesday for their Week 5 home game against the Cincinnati Bengals, multiple offensive linemen and star wide receiver Dez Bryant were in the trainer's room and safety Jeff Heath was handling the place-kicking chores.

Still, the mood is upbeat in Dallas.

"Doing great," Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett said.

As in recent years, injuries are hitting the Cowboys (3-1) at key positions early in the season. Already without quarterback Tony Romo (back) and left guard La'el Collins (toe), Dallas is confident left tackle Tyron Smith (back) and top reserve Chaz Green (foot) will be back but there was less certainty for Bryant (knee) and cornerback Orlando Scandrick (hamstrings) playing this week.

"He's just a complete receiver," said Bengals cornerback Adam Jones of Bryant, his workout partner in New Orleans in the offseason. "He's physical, he can run, he goes up and gets the ball at the highest point. And he plays with big swag - that's what makes him so good."

Bryant missed Week 4 with a fracture below his right knee but Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said Tuesday not to rule him out this week.

Sixth-round pick Anthony Brown has filled in for Scandrick, who missed last season with a knee injury.

Scandrick could be invaluable against the Bengals and wide receiver A.J. Green, who has 32 receptions for 468 yards and two touchdowns in 2016. Green caught 10 of quarterback Andy Dalton's 22 completions in Week 4 against the Miami Dolphins, and had a 12-catch, 180-yard game in the season opener. He's averaging 14.6 yards per reception.

It might not be Green who most concerns Cowboys defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli, given the traditional gaping hole in his cover-2 defense, one proven repeatedly last season against the Cowboys, is down the seam.

The Bengals expect Pro Bowl tight end Tyler Eifert to play for the first time this season on Sunday. He's been inactive for all four games to date recovering from offseason ankle surgery. Eifert did not practice Wednesday because of a "tweaked back."

Cincinnati has come up with only spare change on too many red-zone trips, where offenses make the big money. Eifert had 13 TD catches last season. Not playing at AT&T Stadium on Sunday would rob Eifert the opportunity to beat his brother-in-law, Cowboys right guard Zack Martin.

On 13 possessions inside the opponent's 20-yard line, Cincinnati has scored only four touchdowns with eight field goals. The Bengals rank 28th in the league in rushing offense at barely 80 yards per game, leaving Dalton somewhat exposed. Dalton has been sacked 13 times, and has checked away from running plays often.

"We're going to do whatever it takes to win," Dalton said. "Some of these weeks, we've been able to throw a lot. Whatever's the best way for us to score. If (passing yards) are up there, so be it. If it's not, it's not."

For the Cowboys, kicker Dan Bailey (back) could be limited all week. Garrett will only make a move to a replacement if the ailment stretches into the weekend. Garrett will not use "double emergency" option Heath in a game unless circumstances force it.

"Longest I've ever hit was 49 yards, that was in high school. I'd be comfortable mid-40s probably," Heath said. "It's just kicking."

Rumblings of Romo's return later this month are far enough in the distance that there should be no distraction for Dallas' rookie backfield combination of quarterback Dak Prescott - interception-free after 131 pass attempts and completing 67.9 percent of his passes - and running back Ezekiel Elliott.

The level-headed Prescott said only "good fortune" has helped him start the season without a pick.

"They have a great, great front seven," said Prescott, who led the Cowboys from behind to win at San Francisco last week. "We know we've got a pretty good stretch coming up starting this Sunday with the Bengals. We're confident, our team, our offense, in the direction we're headed."

Elliott, the fourth overall pick in the draft, was targeted by Cowboys' coaches over an impactful defensive player because, as Garrett put it, he can really help a defense.

That philosophy, copied from a successful 2014 strategy employed with DeMarco Murray as the bell-cow back, is taking hold. Elliott leads the NFL in rushing attempts and rushing yards entering Week 5, and Lewis is taking notice.

"He's everything we thought he would be," Lewis said. "Fast, strong, great vision, great cutter, the ability to make people miss within the hole, speed to the perimeter, runs behind his pads."

The Bengals are talented defensively, with defensive tackle Geno Atkins and left defensive end Carlos Dunlap in front a linebacker corps that once again includes tenacious inside linebacker Vontaze Burfict. Burfict returned to the lineup last week after a three-game suspension for player-safety rules violations.

Not having Bryant at 100 percent could work in Cincinnati's favor because it frees Lewis to play all of his cards: mixing coverages, fronts and rotating personnel. The Bengals are active and mix blitzes from every direction, a challenge to a rookie quarterback even with Prescott's poise and calm.

Winning the line of scrimmage is a challenge Lewis made to his team Wednesday, with the expectation that Dallas would use Elliott and backup running back Alfred Morris to pound the ball until Cincinnati shows it can stop the run.

"Both these runners run through a lot of contact," Lewis said. "So we really have to have our big boy pads on and tackle."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)

Date: October 10, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

CHARLOTTE -- The Carolina Panthers didn't expect to be in the same situation as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a quarter of the way through the season.

One of them will take a step in the right direction in Monday night's game at Bank of America Stadium.

"Four games doesn't make a season. We have been in this situation before," Panthers coach Ron Rivera said. "This is a challenge. We have to accept this challenge. We have to take it one game at a time, and that's the approach."

Both teams hold 1-3 records.

While the Buccaneers are in a rebuilding phase with a first-year coach, the Panthers are the defending NFC champions.

"I think we should be better than we are," Rivera said. "We've had some opportunities that we haven't taken advantage of."

Tampa Bay is playing back-to-back games against last season's Super Bowl participants after a home loss to the Denver Broncos. Adding to the task is several injuries that have created uncertainties.

"Somebody needs to rise up anytime another guy is down," Buccaneers coach Dirk Koetter said. "We have high expectations for everybody."

The tricky part for the Panthers is preparing to be without quarterback Cam Newton, who was placed in the NFL's concussion protocol after a late-game hit last week in Atlanta. As of Wednesday, he hadn't practiced.

That means Derek Anderson might be the starting quarterback depending on how the reigning NFL Most Valuable Player recovers.

Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston hasn't been immune from hits that have drawn concerns as well.

"Jameis is taking some hits that we would like him not to take because he is trying to extend some plays," Koetter said.

If Winston is sharp, he might uncover some cracks in the Panthers, who have defensive issues to sort through.

The Panthers were torched by Atlanta receiver Julio Jones, who gained 300 yards, in last week's game in a defensive meltdown that was disturbing.

"We tried to take some things away," Rivera said. "A lot of these young guys are starting to learn how to play."

This week's task for the Carolina defense comes with Buccaneers receiver Mike Evans, who's one of two players in the NFL ranking in the top 10 in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.

The trouble for Tampa Bay has been turnovers. The Buccaneers are minus-9 in turnover ratio and that's not a formula that's working.

"We can't put our defense in that position," Koetter said. "That is killing us right now."

Koetter said Winston is his own harshest critic and he expects an appropriate response.

"Jameis is such a competitive guy," he said. "He is always trying to make a play when sometimes there is no play to be made. ... We can't force the football. He has got to be able to cut our losses. There's nothing wrong with punting."

But until rushing attack improves from 82.5 yards per game, there are going to be some tough spots for Winston.

"We're not running the ball efficiently enough," Koetter said. "We're not being productive enough in the run game and we're having to rely too much on our pass game."

The Panthers are perplexed because they have the same personnel in many areas from a year ago when they lost only once during the regular season. Rivera called for patience to some degree, pointing out it's a process.

"It's learning to play with all the tools we have," he said.

The status of Buccaneers defensive tackle Gerald McCoy seems in question after he suffered a calf injury in the most-recent game and didn't play in the second half. Defensive end Noah Spence left the game with a shoulder injury.

With an extra day before the Monday night game, it gives the Buccaneers longer to heal and left the uncertainty about the status of players linger.

McCoy's potential absence complicates matters for the Buccaneers' defense.

"He usually is going to draw a double team," Koetter said.

The Buccaneers added defensive tackle John Hughes since the Denver game to provide depth for a banged-up front.

Both teams have lost to Denver. Tampa Bay's victory came at Atlanta, where the Panthers lost last week.

The Panthers have won the last six matchups with the Buccaneers, including at home in last season's regular-season finale. They'll meet in this season's finale in Tampa, Fla.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: New York Giants (2-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)

Date: October 09, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

The New York Giants' trip to Green Bay to face the Packers is dripping with story lines.

Will Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham keep his poise and bounce back from the worst game of his career? In Monday night's loss to the Minnesota Vikings, Beckham was limited to three receptions for a career-low 23 yards. After scoring 25 touchdowns in the first 27 games of his career, Beckham hasn't found the end zone in four games this year.

"I think he'll respond well. I think he'll be excited to get out there and play again," Giants coach Ben McAdoo said. "I think a short week is a great week for a lot of reasons, and coming off of a tough loss at Minnesota, I think he'll be excited to get back on the field."

Beckham has a chance to get back on track against the Packers. After being frustrated by Washington's Josh Norman and Minnesota's Xavier Rhodes, Beckham will attack a Packers pass defense that ranks 29th in yards allowed. That unit has had trouble coping with the loss of cornerback Sam Shields, who figures to miss his third consecutive game with a concussion. Last year's first-round pick, Damarious Randall, has struggled to adapt to life as the team's top cornerback, with Minnesota's Stefon Diggs and Detroit's Marvin Jones having big days mainly at his expense the past two games.

"I know we've been struggling -- me in particular has been struggling," Randall said. "The great thing about that, I'm not struggling because of the receivers. I'm struggling because of myself. I know I'm going to bounce back."

While Randall tries to bounce back, McAdoo is coming back to Green Bay, where he worked as tight ends coach from 2006-11 and quarterbacks coach in 2012 and 2013.

If he was feeling nostalgic, he wasn't showing it.

"I haven't given it much thought," McAdoo said. "It's a quick week for us this week, playing on Monday night, fast turnaround. I'm sure I'll have some thoughts and emotions when I walk through the tunnel for the first time."

Few coaches know the inner workings of the Packers' offense and the man who runs the show, quarterback Aaron Rodgers, better than McAdoo.

However, neither McAdoo nor Rodgers thought that knowledge would make much of a difference on Sunday.

"They're running a similar offense to us, so that kind of goes both ways," Rodgers said. "They obviously have an idea of what we're trying to do and vice-versa. I wouldn't say there's a major advantage there. The people that know me the best, thankfully, are still on this staff. I've worked with Mike (McCarthy, the head coach) for 11 years now and Tom (Clements, the associate head coach) directly for six years. As long as we can hold onto those guys, I feel a little bit better about not all the secrets getting out there."

As for Rodgers, does one of the game's top quarterbacks have a weakness that can be exploited?

"No," McAdoo said.

A quarterbacking matchup between Rodgers and Eli Manning is about as good as it gets. Rodgers is a two-time MVP. Manning is a two-time Super Bowl champion. Rodgers, coming off a four-touchdown first-half performance vs. Detroit, owns the highest career passer rating in NFL history. Manning is two touchdowns away from becoming the eighth player in NFL history with 300 touchdown passes and is one win from No. 100.

McAdoo saw a common tie between the two.

"I think the competitive drive, the consistency in preparation, being able to articulate what's happening on the field and the ability they have to see the entire field is always something that's unbelievable to me, and just how slow the game is for them."

Manning is 2-3 in regular-season games against the Packers -- 1-2 vs. Rodgers -- but is 2-0 in the playoffs. The Giants won 23-20 in overtime to capture the NFC Championship in 2007 and 37-20 in the divisional playoffs in 2011. Both games were at Lambeau Field. The first was played with a kickoff temperature of minus-1; the second ruined the defending Super Bowl-champion Packers' 15-1 regular season.

"I obviously have some good memories in playoff games there," Manning said, "but obviously trying to make some new memories and bring some good memories to some of the players who weren't part of those teams."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pick Six - Week 5
By Kevin Rogers

Week 4 Record: 1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS
Overall Record: 12-12 SU, 10-14 ATS

Review: U-G-L-Y. That’s what Week 4 turned out to be with the underdog Jets, 49ers, and Buccaneers all losing at home. Atlanta was the lone winner with its shootout victory over Carolina, as we turn the page to Week 5.

Texans at Vikings (-6 ½, 40) – 1:00 PM EST

Houston
Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

Houston continues to win at home, improving to 3-0 at NRG Stadium after holding off Tennessee last week, 27-20 as four-point favorites. Rookie Will Fuller’s 67-yard punt return for a touchdown broke a 20-20 third quarter tie, while the Texans have yet to allow a touchdown in the second half at home this season. However, Houston has yet to win on the road as the Texans were blanked at New England in Week 3 by a 27-0 count. The Texans posted a 3-4 ATS mark as a road underdog last season, while grabbing an upset as 10-point underdogs at Cincinnati last November.

Minnesota
Record: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS, 3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1

In spite of losing their starting quarterback and running back, the Vikings keep clicking and remain one of the league’s two unbeaten teams. The Vikings tripped up the Giants on Monday night, 24-10 as 3 ½-point home favorites as Minnesota has allowed only 50 points in four games. Since losing at San Francisco in the 2015 season opener, the Vikings have compiled a remarkable 18-2 ATS record in the past 20 contests, including an 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS mark at home.

Best Bet: Houston +6 ½

Patriots (-10 ½, 47) at Browns – 1:00 PM EST

New England
Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 4/1

The Patriots survived the first four weeks without Tom Brady, as the star quarterback returns following his suspension for Deflategate. Brady and the offense try to get on track after suffering a 16-0 shutout to the Bills in Week 3 as a 3 ½-point favorite, as New England was limited to below 300 yards offensively. The defense lifted New England during Brady’s ban by allowing 21 points or less in three of those contests, resulting in a 3-1 mark to the UNDER. The Patriots have struggled the last two seasons as a road favorite, compiling a 3-10 ATS record, including a 1-6 ATS run the past seven in this situation.

Cleveland
Record: 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS, 3-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 5000/1

The Browns haven’t received many breaks this season, but are creeping closer towards picking up that elusive first victory. One week after falling in overtime at Miami, Cleveland erased an early 14-0 deficit at Washington to take a 20-17 fourth quarter lead. However, the Redskins scored the final two touchdowns as the Browns failed to cash as 7 ½-point underdogs in a 31-20 defeat. Cleveland returns to FirstEnergy Stadium for its second home game this season after blowing a 20-0 advantage in a 25-20 defeat to Baltimore in Week 2 as four-point ‘dogs. Last season, the Browns posted a 1-3 ATS mark as a double-digit underdog, as Cleveland faces New England for the first time since a 27-26 loss at Gillette Stadium as 9 ½-point ‘dogs in 2013.

Best Bet: Cleveland +10 ½

Redskins at Ravens (-4, 45) – 1:00 PM EST

Washington
Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 4-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

The battle of the Beltway takes place for the first time since 2012 when the Redskins knocked off the Ravens in overtime, 31-28. Washington has erased an 0-2 start by picking up consecutive victories over the Giants and Browns to reach the .500 mark. Quarterback Kirk Cousins topped the 300-yard mark in each of Washington’s two losses, but has thrown five touchdowns and been intercepted just once in the last two wins. Since the beginning of 2015, the Redskins have produced a solid 10-6 ATS record as an underdog, but Washington owns an 0-4 SU/ATS mark as a road ‘dog under Jay Gruden against AFC opponents.

Baltimore
Record: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

The Ravens suffered their first loss of the season last Sunday in a 28-27 setback to the Raiders as 3 ½-point favorites. Baltimore overcame a 14-3 deficit to take a 27-21 lead in the final minutes, but the Raiders came out on top thanks to Michael Crabtree’s third touchdown catch of the day. The Ravens have not been a productive home favorite since 2015 by compiling a 2-7-1 ATS mark in the past 10 games at M&T Bank Stadium when laying points. Joe Flacco has won six of his last seven home games against NFC foes since 2012, but Baltimore is 2-2-1 ATS in this situation as a favorite.

Best Bet: Washington +4

Falcons at Broncos (-6, 47) – 4:05 PM EST

Atlanta
Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 4-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

Following an opening week loss to Tampa Bay, the Falcons have roared back with three consecutive victories to take over first place in the NFC South. Atlanta won only one divisional game last season, but the Falcons have doubled that total in the last 13 days with victories over the Saints and Panthers. Atlanta dropped 45 points on New Orleans in Week 3, but put up 48 points in a 48-33 triumph over the defending NFC champions last week. Matt Ryan torched Carolina’s defense for 503 yards and four touchdowns, including 300 of those yards to wide receiver Julio Jones. The Falcons continue to cash as an underdog under Dan Quinn by owning a fantastic 8-2 SU/ATS record when receiving points since 2015.

Denver
Record: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS, 3-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1

The defending Super Bowl champions haven’t skipped a beat this season by winning their first four games. Since rallying past Carolina in Week 1, the Broncos have won each of their past three contests by double-digits each, including a 27-7 blowout of Tampa Bay last Sunday. Quarterback Trevor Siemian left last week’s victory with a shoulder injury, but the former Northwestern standout is expected to start on Sunday. The Broncos have struggled as a home favorite since last October, posting a 1-5-1 ATS mark in the last seven in this role with the lone win coming against the Colts in Week 2.

Best Bet: Denver -6

Bills at Rams (-2, 39 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Buffalo
Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

The Bills have rebounded from an 0-2 start to pick up victories the last two weeks against the Cardinals and Patriots in the underdog role. Buffalo pitched a 16-0 shutout of New England in Week 4 as the Bills’ offense put up 378 yards, including 246 yards through the air from Tyrod Taylor. The defense has held three of its four opponents to 18 points or less, while both road games have finished UNDER the total. Buffalo has covered in three of five opportunities as a road underdog of three points or less since last season, but the Bills have lost each of their past two road games against NFC opponents.

Los Angeles
Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

The biggest September turnaround took place in Southern California as the Rams rebounded from an ugly shutout loss at San Francisco to win three straight games. The Rams own an impressive 2-0 division record following victories over the Seahawks and Cardinals, two playoff teams from last season. Los Angeles has been outgained in all four games this season, but own a +8 turnover margin during its three-game winning streak. Under Jeff Fisher, the Rams have compiled an 8-11 ATS mark in the role of a favorite, while being favored at the Coliseum for the first time since their move to Los Angeles.

Best Bet: Buffalo +2

Bengals (-1, 45) at Cowboys – 4:25 PM EST

Cincinnati
Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

The Bengals avoided a 1-3 start by beating the Dolphins last Thursday night, 22-7 to reach the .500 mark. Cincinnati scored six times, but found the end zone only once as A.J. Green hauled in 10 receptions for 173 yards and the Bengals’ only touchdown. The offense has been productive from a yardage standpoint, but in two games they have been limited to one touchdown. Since the start of last season, Cincinnati has been nearly automatic away from Paul Brown Stadium by cashing in nine of the past 10 road games.

Dallas
Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Cowboys have rebounded nicely since a one-point loss in the season opener to the Giants by winning three consecutive games. Dallas hasn’t faced great quarterbacks in the last two weeks (Brian Hoyer and Blaine Gabbert), but the Cowboys managed to pull off victories in the favorite role against Chicago and San Francisco. The Cowboys hope to get wide receiver Dez Bryant back on the field after missing last week’s game with a knee injury. Dallas is facing its first AFC foe this season, as the Cowboys dropped three of four interconference games last season, but all three losses were without quarterback Tony Romo.

Best Bet: Cincinnati -1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Best Bets - Week 5

NFL Week 5 Best Bets

Week 4's best bets did a little better than Week 3 as I was able to split my two selections last week, but was a few minutes away from a perfect 2-0 sweep had Baltimore not coughed up their lead late. After breaking down this week's board I'm looking for that perfect 2-0 as I've isolated a couple of ugly underdogs.

Best Bet #1: Detroit Lions (+3.5)

There aren't too many bettors looking to back Detroit this week as this line opened in the +1 range and has been bet up to it's current number with Philadelphia getting all the love. Yes, the Eagles are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS and coming off a bye, but the general belief that taking teams ATS off a bye week doesn't hold as much weight early in the year as it does later on. Furthermore, there is no doubt that the Eagles have been the more impressive team so far this year, especially after they blew out Pittsburgh last time out, but I'm still not a complete believer in this franchise yet.

For one, you have to remember that the Eagles season win total was in the 6.5 to 7 range depending on when you looked and this team will likely end up finishing close to that number. They've been impressive, but they've still got a rookie QB under center and there will be some growing pains coming his way. I'm sure having basically two weeks of reading all their own press clippings about how great they've been has inflated Philadelphia's opinion of themselves and it could end up being a rude awakening for them this week.

Detroit may be 1-3 SU, but they are coming off two tough road division games and know the time is now to get back on track. This game is the first of three straight at home for the Lions and if they are going to turn their season around, this is the time to start. They are on a run of 7-1 ATS against non-division foes after consecutive division games, and are 12-3 ATS after scoring less than 15 points.

With the line shifting over that key number of “3”, grabbing the points here with a very live home dog against a rookie QB in just his second road game is the play here.


Best Bet #2: Cleveland (+11)

One can't use many superlatives when discussing the 0-4 SU Cleveland Browns this year as they remain the only winless team in the league, but the lack of victories hasn't been from a lack of effort. Yes, the Browns are just 1-3 ATS, but they were hosed by a bogus fumble recovery call last week in Washington that enabled the 'Skins to cover, and nearly covered the spread against Baltimore in Week 2. There is a strong argument to be made that had the Browns not made one error (or been screwed by one bad call) at a critical time in those games, we would be looking at an 0-4 SU team that would be one of the best ATS bets at 3-1 ATS.

This week the Browns welcome in the New England Patriots with the returning Tom Brady and already the majority of bettors believe Brady's out for blood and will take it out on the rest of the league.

But you've got to remember that he's been away from the team and any team related football activities for the past month and there will likely be a bit of rust to shake off. Thankfully for New England fans he does get to go against Cleveland for his first start back, but asking him to win by double digits on the road in that first start is a little too much. This is also the first road game since Week 1 for the rest of the Patriots, and any NFL team off of three straight home games that's listed as a road favorite of any number are on a 32-55-1 ATS run.

For all of Cleveland's flaws this year, their offense has been able to move the ball and put up points, scoring 20 or more in each of their last three contests and that unit should do enough to keep this game within the number.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SNF - Giants at Packers
By Micah Roberts

Odell Beckham says he isn't having fun anymore and that goes double for Giants bettors as they've failed to cover the spread in their last three. They'll try to shake the funk as 7-point underdogs at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers, a venue the New York Giants have had some of their most historical wins.

The Packers come off a bye, which has been a good situation for them in the past, but despite their 2-1 straight up and against the spread record, it's hard not to scratch the head wondering what's going with their offense.

They're ranked No. 29 in the NFL averaging only 293.7 yards-per-game -- just 193.3 of that from the passing game. It's only three games, but it's still cause for concern.But what are statistics worth? Because the Giants have the No. 6 ranked offense statistically (382.3 ypg) and they don't look all that spectacular.

LINE MOVEMENT

Back In May when CG Technology sports books in Las Vegas posted point-spreads on ever regular season game, the opened the Packers -8 for this one. On Sunday night the Westgate SuperBook opened the Packers -7 and on Thursday, Giants money pushed it briefly to -6.5, but soon settled on -7 (EVEN) where it's been since Friday afternoon. Most books around town are split with 7-flat and -7 (EV). The total has dropped from 48.5 to 47.5.

TOTAL STORY

Three of the Giants four games have stayed 'under' the total with an average score of 18-to-21. Two of the Packers games have gone 'over' as they've averaged a 25-22 score.

BETTER GIANTS DEFENSE?

The Giants had the worst defense in the NFL last season, statistically -- even worse than the Saints if you can believe that, but they rank No. 11 this season. After allowing 420 yards per game last season, through four games this year they've allowed only 346 YPG. However, they don't have any interceptions and have recovered only one fumble. Only Detroit's defense has been as equally un-opportunistic. The Giants also have only four sacks on the season which is tied with Atlanta for the NFL's worst attack.

TURNOVER RATIO

The Giants have a minus-8 turnover ratio while the Packers are at zero. The only team with a worse ratio than the Giants is the Jets at minus-11. The best team is the Vikings (+10) who added to that total last week against the Giants.

LAST WEEK

The Giants had plenty of supporters at the bet window on Monday Night Football for their game at Minnesota. The spread fell from Vikings -5 to -3.5 by kickoff. But it was clear after a few series that if holding a Giants ticket that you were on the wrong side. The Vikings held the ball for over 35 minutes and turned a 14-3 halftime lead into a 24-10 win. The Giants converted only 2-of-12 (16%) third down conversions.

The Packers know first-hand about how tough a road game at Minnesota can be as they lost 17-14 to the Vikings in Week 2. Before their Week 4 bye, they beat the Lions, 34-27, barely covering the final spread of -6. At one point in the game they were up 31-3. The Packers had been -7.5 and -7 for most of the week so the books had a big middle paying out early sharp plays at +7.5, handing back cash at a +7 push, and then paying out lots of public game-day parlays on the Packers at -6.

WHAT TEAM IS BEING BET MOST?

William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada had 60 percent of all tickets written on the spread taking the Packers while 61 percent of all cash taken has been on the Giants. Expect more Packer backers on game day throwing them in their parlays. Plus-seven still seems like an attractive number for the wise guys, but most of the public remembers what they saw last on Monday night and will either stay away, try the total or take the Packers.

RECENT MEETINGS

The Giants have covered the last four meetings, the last coming in a Giants 27-13 home win in 2013 as 3.5-point favorites. The last time the two teams played in Lambeau Field was after the 2011 regular season in the divisional playoffs with the Giants winning 37-20 as eight-point underdogs. The Giants would go to win the Super Bowl. In that same season, the Packers won 38-35 as 7-point road favorites at New York. Five of past seven meetings have gone 'over' including the NFC Championship game in 2008,a 23-20 Giants win at Lambeau which the Giants would parlay into a Super Bowl win two weeks later.

TRENDS

-- Giants 0-6-1 ATS last seven road games facing team with winning home record.
-- Giants 1-5 ATS last six games coming off a loss.

-- Packers 10-3 ATS last 13 games following bye week.
-- Packers 'under' 9-1 last 10 games following a win.
-- Packers 'under' 7-1 last eight home games.

DIVISION ODDS

The Packers remain 5/7 favorites to win the NFC North, but charging hard on their heels is the Vikings at 11/10 odds. Minnesota was a 5/2 choice before the season started. The Bears and Lions are both at 35/1 odds.

The Giants came into the season as the 11/5 second choice to win the NFC East, but are now third at 7/2 odds. Philadelphia is the 17/10 favorite followed by Dallas at 9/5. At the bottom is Washington at 5/1.

SUPER BOWL ODDS

Green Bay opened in February at 10/1 (Bet $100 to win $1,000) to win the Super Bowl, tied for the lowest number by an NFC team with the Cardinals. They are now at 6/1 odds. Only the Patriots at 4/1 odds have lower odds. The Giants are still sitting at 40/1, the same number many bettors had when they won their last Super Bowl.

WESTGATE GIANTS/PACKERS PROPS

-- Total completions by Eli Manning: 24.5
-- Total TD passes by Eli Manning: 1.5
-- Total receiving yards by Odell Beckham: 88.5
-- Total passing yards by Aaron Rodgers:265.5
-- Will Jordy Nelson score a TD? YES -140/NO +120
-- Total QB sacks by both teams: 2.5
-- Total points by Giants: 20.5
-- Total points by Packers: 28

NEXT WEEK

The Westgate posts their early lines for the following week on Tuesday's and set Week 6 with the Giants -3 (EV) at home against the Ravens and the Packers 6.5-point home favorites over the Cowboys.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Odds: Week 5 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews

Could we be down to zero unbeatens by the end of the weekend? Possible but unlikely as all three unbeatens are favored this weekend. Two of the three are in great shape to make the playoffs as since the current playoff format was adopted in 1990, 64 of the previous 77 teams (83.1 percent) to start 4-0 have made the playoffs.

Denver (4-0) is a 4.5-point home favorite against Atlanta and the NFL's No. 1 offense. It does appear that it will be rookie Paxton Lynch under center for the Broncos. If he plays well, you may never see Trevor Siemian again barring a Lynch injury. Denver is the first team since the 2002 Chargers (Drew Brees) to begin a season 4-0 with every game started by a quarterback who had never started an NFL game before the season.

Sportsbooks have some Lynch specials this week: "over/under" 235.5 passing yards, 1.5 touchdowns and 0.5 interceptions. I'd probably go under the first two and over the latter as the Broncos are going to run the ball a lot, or at least try to. The Falcons allowed 4.5 yards per attempt, which is near the bottom in the NFL. You can also bet a prop on the number of receiving yards for Atlanta's Julio Jones, at O/U 90.5 with the over a -130 favorite. Of course he's off that franchise-record 300-yard game vs. Carolina. He'll presumably be opposite one of the NFL's best cornerbacks in Aqib Talib all day Sunday. Wade Phillips is a terrific defensive coordinator who might be able to take Jones away. I'd go under there at -110.

Meanwhile, Minnesota (4-0) is a 6.5-point home favorite against Houston. The Vikings lead the league with 11 takeaways and a +10 turnover differential and are allowing 12.5 points per game, the second-best mark in the NFL. And Philadelphia (3-0) is a 3-point road favorite coming off its bye week at Detroit. I like the Lions there for some reason.

If your favorite club is 2-2 or 1-3, not all is lost. Since 1990, 117 teams of 312 (37.5 percent) teams have reached the postseason after starting the season 2-2 or worse. A whopping six did last year with three of them winning their division: the Texans, Vikings and Redskins.

Here are some line moves or potential game-changing injury notes for Week 5.

Bengals at Cowboys (+2, 45.5): This opened with Dallas at -1 and has the largest line move of Sunday's games. Sportsbooks offer a prop on whether Cowboys rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott will lead the NFL in rushing, with "no" at -1200 and "yes" at +600. Those long odds surprise me. He did lead the NFL with 412 yards rushing until Arizona's David Johnson had a big game Thursday night and passed him with 457 total yards. But obviously Johnson has played one more game. Elliott is likely to lead the league in carries behind that terrific offensive line (he did until the Niners' Carlos Hyde passed him on Thursday). I would roll the dice on yes on that prop. Maybe the Cowboys pass a bit more when Tony Romo returns, but I wouldn't bet on Romo's health at this point. With 32 pass attempts and no picks Sunday, Cowboys rookie QB Dak Prescott would pass Tom Brady (162) for the most pass attempts without an interception to start an NFL career. Dallas will be without two starting offensive linemen here, cornerback Orlando Scandrick as well as top receiver Dez Bryant for a second straight week. The team will get defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence off his four-game suspension. Cincinnati was hoping that Pro Bowl tight end Tyler Eifert could make his season debut off ankle surgery. Apparently that's fine but now Eifert has a back injury. So he's likely out again.

Bears at Colts (-4.5, 47.5): No line movement here, but as expected the Bears have lost No. 2 receiver Kevin White to likely season-ending IR with a leg injury. The No. 7 overall pick in 2015 is starting to look like an injury bust as he will have played all of four games in two seasons because of injuries to the same leg. Last year it was a stress fracture in his left shin and this time it's a fractured left fibula. The team says the two aren't related, but color me skeptical. I'm no doctor but did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. In addition, fellow receiver Eddie Royal is questionable with a calf injury. So it might be Alshon Jeffery and a bunch of scrubs. The Bears again go with QB Brian Hoyer over the injured Jay Cutler, and if Hoyer plays well again I don't see Cutler getting that job back soon even if healthy. When you think of Colts running back Frank Gore, do you think Hall of Fame? I don't. Gore has had a very good career, no doubt. But consider that with 20 rushing yards vs. Chicago, he will pass Hall of Famer Jim Brown (12,312) for the ninth-most rushing yards in NFL history. That's just wrong. Up next is Hall of Famer Tony Dorsett (12,739). Bovada offers a prop on whether Indy makes the playoffs, with no at -400 and yes at +250. I might roll the dice on yes only because an 8-8 record could win the AFC South. An Indy win here and expected Texans loss gets the Colts within a game of the division lead.

Giants at Packers (-7, 48): New York quarterback Eli Manning hasn't had the start of the season that I expected, but he can become the eighth quarterback in league history with 300 career touchdown passes with two against Green Bay. With three, he would pass Hall of Famer John Elway, who is right on 300. A victory, which I don't see, would be Manning's 100th career in the regular season. All eyes will be on Giants receiver Odell Beckham Jr. as the team is getting fed up with his immature on-field behavior and drawing stupid penalties. There is talk the Giants could suspend him for a game if he does something silly in this one. New York might get back running back Rashad Jennings from a two-game absence due to a thumb injury in this Sunday night game. Green Bay puts a 10-game home October winning streak on the line. The Pack are also off their bye and have won five straight against NFC teams following their week off. I expect it will be six.

Bucs at Panthers (-4.5, 46): I previewed Monday's game here at Doc's on Thursday so won't go into detail here, but there was no line then because of the uncertain status of Cam Newton. Carolina would have been around a touchdown favorite if he played, but reports out of Charlotte as of Friday are that Newton won't play. There's a slight chance Monday's game could be affected by the hurricane and postponed, but that's not likely with the current forecasts. Sunday's Titans-Dolphins game in Miami will go on as scheduled as the Miami area was barely hit in a minor miracle.

 

[superbeets]

World Cup TODAY 17:00

Wales

v

Georgia

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS1		2/7	19/4	12	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN WALES	RECENT FORM
NWNWNWNLHWAD​ Most recent​	1 - 2	HDNLALAWHLAL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Georgia have reached half-time at 0-0 in each of their last five competitive away games

EXPERT VERDICT: Georgia were very competitive in Thursday’s 1-0 loss at Ireland, earning a 57 per cent share of possession and narrowly losing the shot count 8-7. However, they have a losing habit in qualifiers (11 of their last 14 have ended in defeat) and may eventually succumb to Wales, who are off to a strong start with four points from two games.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw-Wales double result
1

 

[superbeets]

World Cup TODAY 19:45

Moldova

v

Ireland

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS1		8	7/2	4/9	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN MOLDOVA	RECENT FORM
ADNWALALALHL​ Most recent​	Unknown	NLNWALHWADHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Moldova have lost ten of their last 12 qualifiers

EXPERT VERDICT: Ireland had to work hard for their 1-0 win over Georgia but should find it easier against Moldova, who look by far the weakest team in Group D. Dropped points would be a major blow for the Irish but they should be in cruise control against the Moldovans, who have lost their opening two games by an aggregate 7-0 score.

RECOMMENDATION: Ireland
2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bank of America 500 postponed to Sunday
By Amanda Vincent, The Sports Xchange

CONCORD, N.C. -- The Bank of America 500 Sprint Cup Series race at Charlotte Motor Speedway, originally scheduled to run Saturday night, has been rescheduled because of weather conditions resulting from Hurricane Matthew.
The green flag is now expected to wave shortly after noon ET Sunday.
Hurricane Matthew began influencing Charlotte NASCAR race weekend on Friday, with the cancellation of all on-track activity. The result was a rescheduling of a NASCAR Xfinity Series race, originally scheduled for Friday night but postponed until Sunday. That race is expected to take the green flag about 45 minutes after the running of the Bank of America 500.
When the Sprint Cup race takes the green flag on Sunday, Kevin Harvick will start on the pole.
"I think there are just so many good guys and teams in this deal. I think anybody can hit it," Harvick said. "I think there's a lot of good teams and a lot of good engineers that can hit it spot-on for the race."
Alex Bowman, serving as a substitute driver for the still-sidelined Dale Earnhardt Jr., will start next to Harvick on the front row.
"We've got great Hendrick horsepower under the hood and just ready to go Saturday night or Sunday or whenever we get to race," Bowman said.
The Bank of America 500 is the fourth race of the Chase for the Sprint Cup and the first race of the second round. Joey Logano won last year's race on his way to sweeping all three races of round two in 2015. Martin Truex Jr. won the last time the Sprint Cup Series visited Charlotte Motor Speedway in May, leading all but eight laps of the 400-lap Coca-Cola 600, NASCAR's longest race of the season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bank of America 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts

And now we're down to just 12 drivers to win the Sprint Cup. The Round of 12 three-race playoff starts Saturday night at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Eleven of the 12 drivers that advanced, I think most expected. But with Kyle Larson finishing 25th at Dover and Austin Dillon finishing eighth, it gives us all that Cinderella story to follow.

“I’m proud to be going on to the final 12 and having race cars that are capable of moving on," said Austin Dillon following Sunday's Dover race. "I have three really solid tracks coming up (Charlotte, Kansas and Talladega), and I am going to drive the wheels off of it and have fun. It’s time to knock some more of these guys out, because we’ve got this opportunity, and I want to say that we’re going to be the underdog in this next round, so let’s go do it.”

Yes, he is the underdog, or the longest shot of all to win the championship. After Kurt Busch at 25/1 odds, Dillon comes in at 60/1. The favorite is still Kevin Harvick at 4/1 and Martin Truex Jr. at 9/2.

One confidence angle Dillon can look at is RCR teammate Ryan Newman making it all the way to the Championship Round in 2014 and only a few laps from winning the title that Harvick eventually captured by winning the race. Just like Newman then, Dillon hasn't won a race all season. But at this stage, it's all about finishing well and being consistent and Dillon earned it.

Truex Jr.'s win at Dover gave him four for the season which ties Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch for the most in the series. It was his third win in the past five races which make him the driver to beat Saturday night at Charlotte.

Even if Truex hadn't won at Darlington, Chicago and Dover the past five races, he'd still be the favorite just because of what he did May 29 in the first Charlotte race. It was the most dominant win in the history of Charlotte's storied grounds. In NASCAR's longest race of the year -- the Coca-Cola 600 -- Truex led 392 of the 400 laps on the 1.5-mile high-banked tri-oval.

Only three other drivers led among the eight laps that Truex didn't. That's almost four hours of racing where Truex was out front. That's what he does better than anyone and he's red hot right now. Since winning at Darlington five races ago he's led in the last five races totaling 521 laps. In the seven races on 1.5-mile tracks, he's led 817 laps and overall he's led 1,94 laps. All of those achievements are tops in the series.

So when looking at his chances for Saturday, there aren't really any reasons to suggest he won't win. Sure, anything can happen. But each of three wins in the last five races have attributes that can be applied to Charlotte. Darlington's high banking on the 1.3-mile layout can be used somewhat, so can Chicago's 1.5-mile layout and so can Dover's high banks. Oh yeah, and did I mention he led 392 freaking laps the last time at Charlotte?

While I may paint a picture of Truex being invincible this week, it's no fun betting the 4-to-1 favorite to win a race among 39 other drivers, with 12 of them having a legitimate shot to win. His un-official Gibbs teammates is where you want to look first as his top competition beginning with Kyle Busch who surprisingly has never won at Charlotte in 25 Cup starts. Matt Kenseth has two wins, Carl Edwards has won once and Denny Hamlin has a strong 12.3 average finish, but no wins in 22 starts. Busch has wins on the 1.5-mile tracks at Texas and Kansas this season.

Kevin Harvick has the best look among Chevrolet drivers as he's finished ninth or better in 11 of his last 12 Charlotte starts, which includes three wins. He's been runner-up in his last two starts at Charlotte. Since 2014, if we look at all the results at 1.5-mile track and throw Darlington in as well, Harvick has averaged an 8.9 finish with four wins and led a series high 2,074 laps.

Jimmie Johnson was one of the three drivers other than Truex to lead at Charlotte in May. He finished third. He has series-leading seven Charlotte wins, the last coming in 2014. The reason to suggest he'll be a strong contender Sunday is because of what a recent Chicago test session did for his team in the Sept. 18 race at Chicagoland Speedway. Truex won that race and Johnson settled for 12th, but he also led a race-high 118 laps. He had the best car despite the results. Johnson's two wins on the season came within the first five races, but they were at Atlanta and Fontana which applicable somewhat this week, even though it was so long ago.

Brad Keselowski has two wins on 1.5-mile tracks (Las Vegas & Kentucky) and his only Charlotte win came during the 2013 Chase. He finished fifth in May's Coca-Cola 600.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #4 Kevin Harvick (6/1)
2) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (4/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (8/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
5) #2 Brad Keselowski (10/1)