Sunday 10/26/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Clash in the desert'

A pair of one-loss teams square off Sunday afternoon when the Arizona Cardinals host the Philadelphia Eagles. The Cardinals off a 24-13 win at Raiders are 5-1 on the campaign with a 4-2 mark against the betting line. Cardinals one of the top rushing defenses in the league allowing 72.5 yards/game need to be at their run-stop best with the presence of Eagles' shifty back LeSean McCoy and the possibility of all-purpose running back Darren Sproles returning to action. Cardinals one of the worst at defending the pass giving up 284.8 yards/game have a challenge. Eagles with Noles under center air it out to the tune of 262.3 passing yards/game. Cardinals comfortable playing at home winning all three this season (2-1 ATS), 7-of-8 (5-3 ATS) as host dating back to last season and 6-0 (5-1 ATS) in the desert against non-division opponents are a 1.5 to 2.0-point favorite depending on locale. A couple of interesting betting trends to ponder. For what ever reason, teams off a win over Raiders have struggle against the number the next game. Since 2010 these squads are 15-24-3 against the betting line. The Eagles have been awfully good coming off of their bye week. The team is a near perfect 13-1 SU this millennium with a smart 9-5 record ATS.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hollywood Sports

St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs 1:00PM

Bonus Play Kansas City Chiefs

Reason: Lay the points with the Kansas City over St. Louis. The Rams (2-4) may be due for a letdown after their emotional 28-26 win against division rival Seattle last Sunday as a 6.5-point underdog. St. Louis has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. Kansas City (3-3) comes off their 23-20 upset win over at San Diego last week where they were driven by 154 rushing yards en route to 365 yards of offense. The Chiefs have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 150 yards -- and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at leaser 350 yards in their last game. With KC returning home to Arrowhead Stadium for the first time in three weeks, lay the points with the Chiefs. Best of luck -- Frank.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sam Martin

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans 1:00PM

5* Houston Texans

Reason: 5* Play on Houston. Titans head coach Ken Whisenhunt admitted his team has been lacking confidence since before the season even began, and if they didn't have any confidence at the start of the year they certainly don't have any now in the midst of a 1-5 straight up and ATS losing skid. Poor play and injuries at the quarterback position means rookie QB Zach Mettenberger (from LSU) will get the start here, and we'll fade the Titans as a result.

We love fading rookie quarterbacks making their first start of the season anyway, but against a strong defensive front like Houston's - which get Clowney back this week - we like fading Mettenberger even more. Tennessee doesn't have much of a rushing game to help the young quarterback out, and Houston is coming off a very tough loss last week vs. Pittsburgh where they gave up three touchdowns in the final three minutes of the first half - outplaying the Steelers outside of that short window in a 7-point loss. Houston defense picks apart the rookie QB as Tennessee's offense struggles again! 5* Play on Houston.

 

[crystalballs]

Who has won me a ton of money this yeat. 3_0 on top picks (Kentucky, LSU, Penn St) yesterday!!!! Thanks WAR

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Alberta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Post: 3:15 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$2700 - CLAIMING 4000


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 3 B R MONEY MATTERS 4/1


# 7 SPOONS 4/1


# 6 WRANGLER HITECH 9/2


B R MONEY MATTERS looks very nice to best this field of starters. This contender looks strong. Check out the 82 avg TrackMaster SR. The brain trust gives this contender a really strong chance to take this race, class numbers are tops in the grouping. Many bettors will recognize the top notch TrackMaster Speed Rating in the last gathering. Stacks up against any horse in this grouping. SPOONS - Quite possibly think these two have a good thing going. Cullen sending the horse out means a respectable chance to get the trip to the winner's circle. WRANGLER HITECH - This harness racer has been making trips to the winner's circle on a routine basis, look for him to make another trip soon. Definitely the class of the field of starters with an average rating of 80. A nice choice.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's Philadelphia

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 14 - Post: 5:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 74 - Purse:$14000 - 4 YEAR OLDS & UNDER FILLIES & MARES NW 3 EXT. PM RACES OR $30,000 LIFETIME


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 8 GADSDEN HANOVER 2/1


# 5 KEYSTONE IVY 6/1


# 2 BABE IN THE CITY 5/1


Look no further than GADSDEN HANOVER as the play in this one. Might be there at a nice price tag. Surely one to keep in your exotics. The panel of smart guys saw this horse's name on a restaurant menu. Call it our coffee house play, worth a small wager. May provide us a victory based on really strong recent TrackMaster SRs - earning an avg of 81. KEYSTONE IVY - Have to make Tetrick the bet here if only for the last thirty days win figure. Big probability for the win. Hands down the best position at Harrah's Philadelphia is the 5. The win percentage is tremendous. BABE IN THE CITY - Might be there at a reasonable price tag. Surely one to keep in your exotics.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream West

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 70

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 26 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 5 EVERYONE LOVES ME 5/2


# 3 FEE AND SUGAR 3/1


# 4 RECUENTOS 5/1


EVERYONE LOVES ME is the best bet in this race. She has been racing strongly lately while recording very strong speed figures. Budhoo has her trained strongly to break swiftly out of the starting gate. Must be given consideration based on the solid speed figure earned in the last race. FEE AND SUGAR - May best this group here, showing very strong figures of late. With a strong 56 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. RECUENTOS - Well above average win rate at this distance/surface.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hastings Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Allowance - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $22000 Class Rating: 87

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON OF A SWEEPSTAKES OF $26,500 ONCE IN 2014. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER AT A MILE OR OVER IN 2014 ALLOWED 2 LBS. ONE SUCH RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER AT A MILE OR OVER IN 2014 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (PREFERENCE TO HORSES



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 5 FLATTER YOU 5/1


# 4 TERLANI 2/1


# 3 PRETTY RECKLESS 3/1


FLATTER YOU is my choice. Always good to invest in a trainer with this kind of very strong win percentage - 35 percent - at this distance & surface. Has the appearance of a lucrative wager. Is worth considering and may be a wager - strong speed figs (76 average) at today's distance and surface recently. TERLANI - She should be given a shot given the very good speed figures. Barroby has one of the most competitive winning percentages in this group with entries running at this distance and surface. PRETTY RECKLESS - Has been travelling in the most competitive company of the group recently. Looks competitive against this field and will probably be one of the leaders.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Churchill Downs - Race #2 - Post: 1:08pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $41,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 LAWLESS WEST (ML=7/2)
#5 THIRTYSEVENLIVESON (ML=7/2)
#3 AWESOME TRAUM (ML=3/1)


LAWLESS WEST - I think the shorter trip will help this colt stay the trip. This colt is in excellent form right now. Finished second last time out and comes back soon. Is ranked number one in earnings per race. A dominant effort in this event will add to the lifetime total. Just look at his most recent speed figure, 81. That one fits well in this group. THIRTYSEVENLIVESON - This colt has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Romans. Better beware this angle. On board this horse on October 4th and Lanerie is right back in the irons in today's contest. Have to make this colt a strong challenger; he comes off a solid effort on October 4th. AWESOME TRAUM - Romans brings him back again. I suggest you stay with this strong colt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 DON'T HOLD ME BACK (ML=5/1), #6 MOONLIGHT BANDIT (ML=5/1), #4 HERE SIR (ML=8/1),

DON'T HOLD ME BACK - This colt didn't do too much last time out. MOONLIGHT BANDIT - Doubtful that this equine will finish better than he did last time when ending up seventh. When looking at today's class rating, he will have to garner a better speed rating than last out to compete in this dirt route. HERE SIR - Doubtful that this animal can transfer his turf form to the main track. Hard to take this steed at this price after the finish (seventh) in the last event. Earned a common speed fig last time out in a Maiden Special race on September 19th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that fig.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - LAWLESS WEST - A pace examination shows this horse should have the pace to wire this bunch.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #2 LAWLESS WEST to win if you can get at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,3,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turf Paradise - Race #4 - Post: 2:30pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,500 Class Rating: 74

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 MURMANSK (ML=5/1)
#6 ANGEL CHARGE (ML=5/2)
#5 GENTLEMAN RICK (ML=6/1)


MURMANSK - All systems look good for this gelding. Last workout, 2nd fastest of the day, shows he's fit and ready. Looks like the lone speed of the race. Should be tough on the front-end. I just may give this one a good shot. Should improve off last race where he did run off the board, but was within five lengths at the wire. ANGEL CHARGE - Looking at today's class figure, this thoroughbred is meeting an easier field than in the last race at Fresno. This gelding's last speed fig is good enough to win here, I'll bet on him right back today. GENTLEMAN RICK - Like the way this gelding's finish positions keep getting better. That's a sure sign of improving form. When Collins and Faulkner combine forces on equines the ROI has been fantastic at +160. Three consecutive improved Equibase speed figs (23-54-61) make this one a powerful contender.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 COPPER BAY (ML=2/1), #3 CONFISIO (ML=3/1),

COPPER BAY - Hard to put your cash on the win end of any thoroughbred that finishes second and third as frequently as this participant does. Showed some physical problems last time around the track at Emerald Downs. Not likely that the speed rating he registered on September 27th will be good enough in this affair. CONFISIO - Has been beaten as the public's top choice twice. A repeat is probably in store.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - ANGEL CHARGE - This racer should be your wagering choice today. This gelding has posted improving speed figures in his last two races.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #2 MURMANSK to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
2 with [5,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,5,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #9 - BELMONT PARK - 5:06 PM EASTERN POST


The Turnback the Alarm Handicap

8½ FURLONGS DIRT GRADE III FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $200,000.00 PURSE

#4 FLORES ISLAND
#6 ENDLESS CHATTER
#5 TEEN PAULINE
#2 DAME DOROTHY

Well folks ... with the approach of the end of Daylight Savings Time on Sunday, November 2nd ... one would think that this graded stakes race is aptly named for this "clock changing day" ... alas ... you would be wrong. The Turnback the Alarm Handicap is named for the filly who won two jewels of New York's Triple Tiara for 3-year-old fillies in 1992: the Mother Goose and Coaching Club American Oaks. She came back from an injury the following year to win three Grade 1 races: the Shuvee, the Hempstead, and the Go for Wand. Here in the 19th renewal of this stakes event, I'm going with a 20-1 BOMB, #4 FLORES ISLAND to post an upset ... she's hit the board in four of her last five outings, including a trio of "Circle Trips" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency. Jockey Junior Alvarado has been in her irons on one previous occasion, posting a win, and is back this afternoon for his 2nd ride ... gunning for back-to-back "Circle Trips!" #6 ENDLESS CHATTER has hit the board in five straight, winning three times, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in her 2nd and 3rd races back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Santa Anita Park

RACE #8 - 4:55 PM


The Lure Stakes

8.0 FURLONGS TURF THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $75,000.00 PURSE

#9 BOYETT
#5 PURE TACTICS
#2 OLD TIME HOCKEY
#4 HAY DUDE

For you folks who enjoy a little Thoroughbred Racing History to accompany your handicapping efforts here at Santa Anita this afternoon ... this race is name in honor of the career of Lure, who was bred and owned by Claiborne Farm in Paris, Kentucky, he is a son of the leading stallion Danzig, who in turn was sired by Hall of Famer and prominent sire Northern Dancer. He was out of the mare Endear by another Hall of Famer, Alydar. Trained by Shug McGaughey, Lure is best known as the turf racing specialist who won back-to-back runnings of the Breeders' Cup Mile (at Gulfstream Park in 1992 and at Santa Anita Park in 1993). After winning three graded stakes races in 1994, Lure returned to again compete in the Breeders' Cup Mile but finished ninth. He was then retired to stand at stud at Claiborne Farm and in 2004 was pensioned due to poor fertility. In this year's edition of The Lure ... #9 BOYETT, qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," takes a class drop (-8),m and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of his last five outings, hitting the board in four, including a pair of "POWER RUN WINS" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency.#5 PURE TACTICS, the morning line favorite, has scored with "POWER RUN WINS" in his 2nd and 4th races back, which is indicative of a "Bounce Pattern" folks ... and the BoUnCe will be UP/POSITIVE this afternoon if this pattern continues

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Sunday 10/26 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS


Race 7 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (42 - 83 / $164.70): FOX VALLEY CICERO (1st)

Spot Play: FOX VALLEY NELL (2nd)


Race 1

(3) FOX VALLEY CICERO gets sent out for new connections who have a good winning percentage in this scenario. (7) PONDA PREMIER has been much better in his last two despite a late break last out. (6) STONEBRIDGE ULTIMO well bred trotter has some ability but needs a smooth trip with a provisional driver.

Race 2

(3) FOX VALLEY NELL never made it to the gate last race after being razor sharp the start prior. (5) IF I DIDNT DREAM seems to be knocking on the door of a breakthrough performance; threat. (4) BIKINIS ON TOP home bred filly has the most talent in the field but is handicapped by a suspect pilot.

Race 3

In a tough race to gauge (6) CHOCOUTURE two-year-old colt faces older but does make his third start back off a layoff and has tons of room to improve. (7) KITE FLYER made a break last out as the favorite but is a major player if the filly trotter minds her manners. (2) RIVERSIDE GOLD quit badly last out after being used aggressively but still should be considered a threat in a field full of question marks.

Race 4

(7) BI POLAR ROSE was using last start as a tune up for this race; fires early. (4) FOX VALLEY YOKO looked to be the best earlier in the year and stormed by this field impressively last week. (2) PERSUASIVE LOOK filly is much better when raced from off the pace and seemed to lose focus last out once she was in front.

Race 5

In another tough race to handicap (3) ISIS IVY went from awesome to empty and rough gaited last out. A repeat of his effort the start prior makes him the horse to beat. (8) GO RUN N TELLTHAT might be able to make the transition to the big track after flashing some ability at Maywood. (5) HERE'S TOOTSIE three-year-old just missed last start getting picked off at the wire; threat.

Race 6

(6) SURCLASSER picks up the top driver and just needs a good setup to sweep past late. (1) MASTER OF EXCUSES drew off last out down in class but needs a smooth trip with some luck to hit the top. (3) ROMPAWAY BEAU owns plenty of back class and should offer good value in another wide open race.

Race 7

(4) SUE'S YOUR DADDY parlayed a nice trip to victory last race and could have more to offer. The 3-year-old has been running second all year to a very nice horse. (2) JOYFUL ROCK filly faces older but has tons of upside and seems to be improving with every start. (1) FINANCIAL EFFORT mare scored off a perfect trip last out but rarely wins; command a price.

Race 8

(3) TIMEWELL will likely be used very aggressively and should offer a fair price. (5) BOILER BOB THE QB faces easier and could be sitting on a big effort; threat. (9) GALACTIC STAR has come up short lately when it matters most and is probably best used underneath.

Race 9

(4) LYNRAE JAZMIN gets an upgrade in the bike and just needs a smooth trip for a chance late. (6) SUGARSWEET CHERRY should have had more late last start and was out gamed without putting up a fight; use caution. (2) BUBBALA pacing mare has flashed some talent in a wide open race; driver's choice.

Race 10

(6) STAR OF THE GAME drops down to the bottom level and the pacer's last effort puts him on the wire. (1) WOOP D DO BAZZLE gelding raced really well last out and keeps the best post; threat. (4) YERMANOS rarely wins but is capable in a weak field.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Belmont Park (1st) Gu Gu Beans, 9-2
(10th) Saratoga Karaoke, 5-1


Churchill Downs (1st) Greely's Striker, 7-2
(5th) Island Town, 3-1


Golden Gate Fields (2nd) Maggie's Gold, 5-1
(9th) Ithoughtipaidyou, 5-1


Gulfstream Park West (2nd) Redwater, 7-2
(4th) Bright Face, 5-1


Hastings Park (6th) Uncle Clarence, 4-1
(7th) Flatter You, 5-1


Mountaineer (1st) Hadal Zone, 8-1
(7th) Secondhand Justice, 9-2


Parx Racing (2nd) M'Lady Penny, 3-1
(5th) Bluecam, 7-2


Santa Anita (5th) Congrats Seattle, 6-1
(6th) Sunset Skies, 8-1


Thistledown (4th) Tropical Deputy, 3-1
(6th) Distinctly Mine, 3-1


Turf Paradise (6th) Another Addition, 3-1
(7th) Blue Stage, 7-2


Woodbine (4th) El Ceebeo, 3-1
(5th) Ponage, 6-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

World Series: 5 things we know entering Game 5
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

The Giants evened the World Series at two games apiece with an 11-4 victory over the Kansas City Royals in Game 4 on Saturday night at AT&T Park in San Francisco.

Right fielder Hunter Pence had three hits and drove in three runs and second baseman Joe Panik and third baseman Pablo Sandoval each had two hits and two RBIs for the Giants.

Here are five things we know Game 5 going into Sunday night with left-hander Madison Bumgarner starting for the Giants against right-hander James Shields in a rematch of Game 1, won 7-1 by San Francisco.

5. Shields will almost certainly be making his last start for the Royals. The right-hander can become a free agent at the end of the season and figures to land a lucrative contract as the third-best starter on the market after Detroit right-hander Max Scherzer and Oakland left-hander Jon Lester. Shields has gone 1-1 with a 7.11 ERA in four starts this postseason but believes he is ready to live up to his "Big Games James" nickname in his likely swan song after working out some mechanical flaws in his delivery with pitching coach Dave Eiland between starts.

4. Bumgarner will start Game 5 with four days off between starts after manager Bruce Bochy toyed with the idea of pitching the left-hander on short rest in Game 4. Bumgarner, 25, has been outstanding in this postseason, going 3-1 with a 1.41 ERA in five starts. He has also logged 256 innings this year --- 217 1/3 in the regular season and 38 2/3 in the postseason --- but says he is not feeling fatigued. His postseason numbers certainly bear that out and Bochy says the innings total is not a concern to him or pitching coach Dave Righetti.

3. Bochy will stick with his plan of starting right-hander Jake Peavy in Game 6 and right-hander Tim Hudson in a potential Game 7, both at Kansas City. Bochy likes the experience both pitchers bring. The 33-year-old Peavy is a 13-year veteran and Hudson, 39, is in his 16th season. They have taken the two Giants losses in the series, though, as Peavy gave up four runs in five innings in Game 2 and Hudson allowed three runs in 5 1/3 innings in Game 3. Right-hander Yusmeiro Petit, who has pitched 12 scoreless postseason innings, will be ready to work in long relief.

2. Bochy will not hesitate to bring Petit into the game early as the journeyman has been outstanding throughout the postseason. That comes after a solid regular season as a swingman when he went 5-5 with a 3.69 ERA in 39 games, including 12 starts. Petit retired 46 straight batters during one stretch in August, breaking the major league record set by left-hander Mark Buerhle in 2009 while pitching for the Chicago White Sox. Some analysts questioned why the Giants did not start Petit in Game 4 rather than right-hander Ryan Vogelsong, who gave up four runs in 2 2/3 innings.

1. The Royals still seemingly have a bit of the upper hand, even if they figure to be the underdogs in Game 5 against Bumgarner. Game 6 and a potential Game 7 will be played at Kauffman Stadium on Tuesday and Wednesday and the Royals didn’t have to burn any of their top relievers in Game 4. Setup men Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis and closer Greg Holland did not pitch. Asked after the game, both Bochy and Royals manager Ned Yost said there is a feeling the World Series is heading for a Game 7 for the first time since 2011.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Playoffs

Shields is 1-2, 5.97 in his last six starts, 3-5, 5.74 in 19 postseason starts. He is 1-1, 3.75 in two starts against the Giants this season.

Bumgarner is 3-1, 1.63 in his last five starts, 6-3, 2.54 in 11 postseason starts; 1-1, 2.40 in two starts against the Royals this season.

Giants won World Series in 2010 and 2012; they're 10-4 this postseason, 6-3 at home- they were down 4-1 in 3rd inning last night, rallied to tie series.

Royals are 16-4 in last 20 games, 10-2 this postseason, with six one-run wins. They've won 12 of last 15 road games.

Shields 24-14......................11-38 first inning
Bumgarner 23-15................10-38 first inning

Since 1982, 11 World Series have been tied 2-2; weird stat is the team that won Game 5 went to win series only four of 11 times.

 

[inthegame07]

Who has won me a ton of money this yeat. 3_0 on top picks (Kentucky, LSU, Penn St) yesterday!!!! Thanks WAR

Sounds like you won big for the first time in your life. Don't flaunt it buddy, because you'll probably lose it all today and some. Shut the fuck up!

 

[FORGETABOUTIT]

Spartan Triple Dime Game of the Month
New Orleans -1.5

Thanks Ciuki!

 

[TroyStacks]

Northcoast GOM

 

[Stat13]

Dr. Bob?