Sunday 10/19/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 7 line watch: Jump on Cardinals quick
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Game to bet now

Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders (+3.5)

There is a little bit of a buzz on the Oakland end of the Bay Bridge after the Raiders came within a whisker of beating the Chargers on Sunday. That’s all well and good, but a glance at the schedule shows what the Raiders are facing as they head into the middle of the schedule – Arizona, at Cleveland, at Seattle, Denver and at San Diego. All winning teams with chances on winning their divisions. In all probability Oakland will be 0-10 by the middle of November and neck and neck with the Jags for the overall No. 1 draft pick. A straight up loss with a cover is too narrow a needle to thread on this one. Arizona is getting Larry Fitzgerald back into the offense and smells Seattle’s blood. Swallow the 3.5 here before the number goes to 4.

Spread to wait on

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (-2.5)

Early money is pretty much evenly divided between the two, though bettors appear to be waiting to see if the number will climb to 3 with backers of the Lions nudging it just a bit higher. Everyone is wondering just what is going on with the Saints, who sit at 2-3 and don’t seem to be getting much traction in an NFC South that appears winnable for any team that can figure out how to win four or five in a row. The Saints have trouble on the road, where their three defeats have come by an average score of 34-25. But the Lions couldn’t get it done at home a few weeks ago against Buffalo. Best to sit on this a bit and see what kind of odds are posted later in the week.

Total to watch

New York Jets at New England Patriots (46) (Thursday)

No matter how bad things are going for the Jets (and they are going real bad right now), they seem to be competitive against the Patriots in Foxboro. NYJ games at NE have turned into taffy pulls since the mid-2000s, and with forecasters calling for bad weather on Thursday night, this one has the makings of another 20-13 game. New York has no chance in a shootout, so it’s pretty much guaranteed that the Jets will run the ball at least for the first half. Under deserves a good look in this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gridiron Angles - Week 7
By Vince Akins

NFL USER TREND:

-- The Lions are 20-1 OU since October 2000 after a game where they allowed less than 21 points and punted at least seven times.

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Ravens are 10-0-1 ATS (9.4 ppg) since 2008 when their last game went over the total by at least 14 points and they are not 6+ point dogs.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Jaguars are 0-11 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since September 30, 2012 when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Broncos are 9-0 OU (9.0 ppg) since October 7, 2012 after a win in which Demaryius Thomas had a reception of 40+ yards.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Titans are 10-0 OU (12.7 ppg) since October 29, 2001 as a road dog when facing a team that has forced an average of at least six punts per game season-to-date.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams that allowed at least 18.75 points less than expected last game are 68-45-5 ATS. Active on Detroit.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Jaguars are 0-10 OU (-11.0 ppg) since October 16, 2011 after a loss where they had a rushing touchdown.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 7
By Chris David

Week 6 Recap

The infamous late-game pick six touchdown in football can be a dream or a nightmare for sports bettors and we certainly hope it wasn’t the latter for you in Week 6. Unfortunately for some, this wasn’t a onetime occurrence last week and the outcomes affected both sides and total bets.

At this time, I’ll apologize to any bettors who had the ‘under’ in the Broncos-Jets, Redskins-Cardinals and 49ers-Rams and congratulate the winners who cashed ‘over’ tickets. I’ll also say sorry to those who had the Jets and Redskins.

Imagine if you had parlay tickets on the Jets-Under and Redskins-Under combinations. While I sympathize with the losers, I’m also happy for the winners that cashed Broncos-Over, Cardinals-Over tickets. Sometimes chicken, sometimes feathers!

Which one was the worst beat? You can certainly argue for any of the three and in hindsight, are you really that surprised when you look at the quarterbacks doing the damage – Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins, Austin Davis?

If any users can show me proof that they wagered on the ‘under’ in ALL three of those games, shoot me an email unless you decided to hang it up.

Including those three results, the ‘over’ went 10-5 last weekend. Through six weeks of the season, the ‘over’ is 49-42.

Back on Track

Another total beat we didn’t talk about above was the ‘under’ in the Green Bay-Miami matchup. The Packers led 10-3 at halftime and 17-10 after three quarters. The Dolphins were on way to a victory, leading 24-20 late in the fourth quarter but they couldn’t run the clock out. Sure enough, QB Aaron Rodgers and company went 60 yards in a little over two minutes and captured a 27-24 road win.

This particular win was also part of the “Thursday Night Total” system that I’ve been touching on this season. For those of you reading “Total Talk” for the first time, the total angle that’s been profitable is very simple to follow. All you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Dating back to last season, the ‘over’ has gone 18-3-1 (86%).

This week, the angle applies to the Houston-Pittsburgh matchup on MNF, since the Texans lost to the Colts 33-28 last Thursday. (See below)

Off the Bye

After six weeks, we’ve seen 25 percent of the league (eight teams) play with rest. Those teams off the bye have seen the ‘over’ go 6-1 in those matchups, and there is one less result since Arizona and Denver were both off rest when they met in Week 5.

Last week, Oakland and Miami were off the bye and the ‘over’ cashed in both games albeit luckily for the Dolphins.

This week, New Orleans and Kansas City will be playing off rest.

New Orleans at Detroit: This total opened 50 and has dropped to 47. Something will have to give in this game since the Saints (4-1) have been an ‘over’ team this season while the Lions (5-1) have been a great ‘under’ bet. Not having two major offensive weapons (TE Jimmy Graham, WR Calvin Johnson) certainly hurts both clubs. However, it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Saints have won and covered five straight games off the bye behind an offense that is averaging 40.2 PPG. Make a note that four of those five games were played at the Superdome. On the road this season, New Orleans has allowed 37, 26 and 38 points.

Kansas City at San Diego: The Chargers have scored 30-plus points in four of their six games and we mention that because the Chiefs haven’t allowed anybody to bust 30 points in five games. The ‘over’ is on a 4-0 run in this series.

Divisional Battles

Bettors are looking at four divisional matchups for Week 7, three to be played on Sunday. This past Thursday, New England held off the Jets 27-25 and the ‘over’ (44.5) cashed.

Seattle at St. Louis: The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight and six of the last seven in this series. Total opened 45 and is down to 42 ½ at a few shops as of Saturday evening.

Kansas City at San Diego: (See Above)

N.Y. Giants at Dallas: This total is hovering between 47 and 48 points. All three of the last encounters between this pair have gone ‘over’ the number, which includes a 36-31 home win by the Cowboys over the Giants last year.

Under the Lights

Week 6 watched the ‘over’ go 2-1 in the primetime games. Including Thursday's 27-25 shootout between the Patriots and Jets, the ‘over’ owns a 16-4 (80%) record in 20 games played under the lights.

San Francisco at Denver: Oddsmakers sent out 49 ½ on this total and it’s been holding steady all week, few places have gone up to 50. If you’re betting Denver, you’re likely leaning to the ‘over’ and that combination has cashed the last two weeks. Will it hit again? On a Sunday night? I know the bookmakers are hoping for the opposite and they should feel confident. San Francisco has watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 this season and that could easily be a 6-0 mark. The 49ers have had a lot of success (11-3 SU, 11-3 ATS) against the AFC under head coach Jim Harbaugh and it’s a combination of great offense (26.8 PPG) and defense (13.9 PPG) during this span.

Houston at Pittsburgh: This is a very tough game to handicap for both the side and total. The Steelers and Texans are both 3-3 and they both 3-3 marks to the ‘over/under’ as well. It’s more than fair to say they’ve been inconsistent and passing here might be your best option. As far as the total goes, it’s hard to ignore the aforementioned “Total System” and these teams do have some misleading stats. Pittsburgh is ranked sixth in total offense (396 YPG) and even though J.J. Watt is everywhere, the Texans are ranked 27th in total defense (397 YPG). The problem with Pitt is red-zone scoring, ranked 31st.

Fearless Predictions

After watching the Chicago-Atlanta total get pushed up to as high as 56.5 on Sunday, I knew the ‘over’ was in trouble. I expected the Bears to score and they did their job, just not well enough and that kept the bankroll from turning a profit. After six weeks, the deficit is $70. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Miami-Chicago 48

Best Under: Carolina-Green Bay 50

Best Team Total: Over San Francisco 21.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 39 Miami-Chicago
Over 35 ½ Houston-Pittsburgh
Under 54 Cleveland-Jacksonville

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 7 Look-Ahead
By Tony Mejia

The Cowboys conquest in Seattle was the most-viewed regular-season contest since the 2011 season and drew Fox's best NFL rating for a Sunday non-playoff game in 19 years.

There's no matchup of that magnitude on the Week 7 schedule, but that doesn't mean there aren't a couple potential blockbusters in store.

Monday night's matchup between Houston and Pittsburgh has a steel-cage, elimination feel, so much so that Jim Ross should replace Mike Tirico in the booth opposite Jon Gruden. With J.J. Watt terrorizing quarterbacks by batting down their passes when he's not knocking them to the ground and the Steelers trying to shake off a soft label to avoid falling under .500, this week's finale is definitely underrated.

Of course, that's because it's likely to be upstaged by the Sunday night game.

After cashing against the Rams on Monday night, San Francisco is back on the road in Denver for a game being framed as Colin Kaepernick vs. Peyton Manning. Although trite, it might live up to that billing since both quarterbacks will have to exploit weaknesses of defenses missing quality personnel, but I'll give you the real key in a few paragraphs.

Kaepernick has made strides since an inconsistent preseason, which featured a horrible performance in two series against the Broncos, who christened Levi's Stadium with a 34-0 rout of the 49ers. He comes off his best game, tossing for 343 yards and three touchdowns in St. Louis, rushing a season-low three times for a season-high 12.3 yards per carry. Considering the knock on him has been how hot and cold he can run, it would be an important step in his development if he's able to put together another breakthrough in Denver.

Consistency hasn't been an issue for Manning, who has eased any dead-arm concerns with his strong play against some quality defenses. Indianapolis has strong corners, while Kansas City, Seattle, Arizona and the N.Y. Jets are all teams that rely on stopping teams for their success. San Francisco is just next on the list.

The fact it's in primetime clinches the fact that one way or another, 49ers-Broncos is the game we'll be talking about on Monday morning. While the Broncos are out linebacker Danny Trevathan's services again, they have faced a stable of mobile quarterbacks thus far and have held up relatively well despite surrendering a few big plays here and there.

Geno Smith was actually New York's leading rusher in last week's win in East Rutherford, as Denver held the Jets trio of Chris Johnson, Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell to 20 yards on 13 carries. After watching New York run the ball down New England's throat on Thursday night, the key to this game may be San Francisco's ability to loosen up the defense with its ground game. Arizona couldn't gain traction there in its lopsided loss, but Seattle did have success to hand the Broncos their lone defeat, complete with Marshawn Lynch's game-winning scamper in overtime.

Frank Gore and rookie Carlos Hyde basically split carries on Monday night, so both should be fresh if the offensive line can open some space for them. Managing time of possession, a major strength for the 49ers all season, will hinge on how effective a line that comes in banged up can be. The health status of linebacker Patrick Willis and prized rookie defensive back Jimmie Ward is also a must to monitor if you're wagering on the Week 7's most attractive contest.

Beyond the Seahawks looking to recover their mojo at St. Louis and the Cowboys hoping to build off their brilliance in the Pacific Northwest by stomping out the Victor Cruz-less Giants, there are four other truly intriguing matchups. There are a pair of must-see games in each conference. Cincinnati feels like it is coming off a loss in tying the visiting Carolina Panthers. It's not just because Mike Nugent blew a makeable field goal at the end of overtime, either. Even without A.J. Green, the Bengals generated more than enough points for a defense that looked to be among the NFL's best before getting carved up by Cam Newton despite an inconsistent running game.

Indianapolis has a more accurate quarteback as Sunday's adversary in Andrew Luck, not to mention a more effective run game. Can Cincinnati reclaim its defensive dominance against the NFL's leader in passing yardage, the first passer they've run into ranked in the top five in QBR? Things haven't gone well against Newton or Tom Brady the past few outings, and Luck has been better than both this season.

Kansas City's defense comes off its bye week but was similarly brought back down to earth after its dominance of Tom Brady, falling at San Francisco. That loss has served as motivation with another trip to the West Coast for a huge AFC West battle against San Diego on tap. Philip Rivers can bolster his MVP hopes with another win, but that's not the big picture here.

Thanks to a 5-1 start, the Chargers have an opportunity to put itself in great position for a playoff berth over the next week, playing host to the Chiefs on Sunday before traveling to Denver next Thursday night. It's vital to get the first part of this key swing, since a home loss would put extra pressure on the team heading into a mid-week trip at Mile High. With a pair of defeats, San Diego would go from playoff lock to just another team that needs to put in a lot of work in the regular season's second half.

In the NFC, Detroit is in search of a third statement win at home to make up for the lone loss it should've never let get away. If their kicking was on point, the Lions would be 5-1, so that Week 5 setback against Buffalo has the potentially to truly sting down the stretch. Still, a team that has already dropped the Giants and Packers at Ford Field could really put themselves in a strong position against visiting New Orleans.

The Saints are coming off a bye, which bodes well for them given Sean Payton's game-planning prowess, but the likely absence of Jimmy Graham may neutralize things. Of course, Calvin Johnson is probably going to sit this game out, too, so the winner here is likely to be the team that improvises best without their top weapon. Mark Ingram is back and Reggie Bush faces the Saints for the first time, so the running game will be a crucial part of this one, but it's still probable that it becomes a battle between Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford as they look to make the most of the pieces that are healthy. This is a situation where who suits up probably shouldn't alter the total, but after opening over 51, it's dipped down towards 48. Then again, the Lions defense has been tremendous.

Carolina's resistance was expected to be elite, but after a disastrous Sunday night effort in Week 3 against Pittsburgh exposed weaknesses, it has looked rather ordinary. Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers will test the Panthers again, but as detailed earlier, Newton is working with some momentum, too. After dodging a bullet against the Bengals last week, a win at the Packers could be a game-changer as far as the playoff chase is concerned.

Intraconference battles featuring Atlanta/Baltimore and Miami/Chicago will likely have implications down the road, so there are plenty of angles to take that will likely lead many to resort to their preseason expectations when making final determination on this weekend's games. Week 7 definitely has a sampling of games I expect we'll look back on as having a major impact in a few months.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharp Moves - Week 7
By Mike Rose

We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 7!

(Rotation #460) St. Louis +7 – Though there has been some line movement in the direction of the Seahawks, it certainly doesn't warrant the stunning 90 percent of the bets which have come in on Seattle this week. The Rams just haven't played to their best this year, but this is a team which always plays at a really high level in these divisional games. Heck, St. Louis is just six days removed from being up two touchdowns on the San Francisco 49ers. Many just make the assumption that the Seahawks are going to come out angry about their loss last week to the Dallas Cowboys and whoop up on a suspect team, but this is a heck of a lot of points to be giving a team that’s generally is tough to blow out; especially in its own house.

Opening Line: St. Louis +6.5
Current Line: St. Louis +7
Public Betting Percentage: 90% on Seattle


(Rotation #468) Detroit -3 – A rare situation where a home team and a favored team is sharp for sure. For some reason, bettors still believe in the Saints even though TE Jimmy Graham is out of the lineup, handicapping QB Drew Brees by taking away his favorite target. The Lions are getting healthy, though they are still without WR Calvin Johnson, and most believe that the Detroit offense begins and ends with Megatron. There's some merit to that for sure, but this is basically going to be the fourth game without Megatron out there, and there is some talent to be had in Motown. It's the Detroit defense which has our eye though, as this defensive line is one of the best in the league. The Lions have the better of these two teams, but neither the betting line nor the reaction from the general public suggests that to be the case.

Opening Line: Detroit -2.5
Current Line: Detroit -3
Public Betting Percentage: 61% on New Orleans


(Rotation #474) Oakland +3.5 – The Raiders are once again on our list of sharp picks for the third straight week, and this is probably as sharp a play as we’ve seen all year long. Sharp bettors have been losing, but they’re playing the percentages and lining up to bet against an Arizona team which is overrated at 4-1. The Raiders should have won last week against San Diego, but stupid mistakes cost them in the end. Those dumb mistakes will work themselves out week after week, and in the end, Oakland is ultimately going to win games like these more often than not. In Sparano we trust!

Opening Line: Oakland +4
Current Line: Oakland +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 84% on Arizona

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 7 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Bengals at Colts (-3, 49 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 6 Recap:
-- Cincinnati’s 11-game regular season home winning streak came to a halt in a 37-37 tie against Carolina, as the Bengals failed to cover as seven-point favorites. The Bengals are winless in the last two games following a 3-0 start, allowing 80 points against the Patriots and Panthers after giving up just 33 points in the first three weeks.
-- The Colts improved to 3-0 in AFC South play after holding off the Texans, 33-28 as 2 ½-point road favorites to win and cover for the fourth straight game. Indianapolis put things on cruise control after grabbing a 24-0 lead in the first quarter at Houston, while Andrew Luck eclipsed the 300-yard mark for the fifth time in six games.

Previous meeting: The Bengals ripped up the Colts last December at home, 42-28 to easily cash as seven-point favorites. Cincinnati jumped out to a 14-0 halftime lead, as the Bengals overcame four touchdown passes by Luck to improve to 9-4 on the season. The home team has won each of the past five matchups, as Andy Dalton is 2-0 in his career against Indianapolis.

What to watch for: The Colts have been a terrific ‘over’ team, hitting in five of six games, including a 2-1 ‘over’ mark at Lucas Oil Stadium. However, Indianapolis owns an average 5-5 ATS record as a home favorite since the start of the 2013 season. The Bengals have put together a 6-2 ATS mark since the middle of 2012 following a loss/tie, but five of those covers came at home.


Panthers at Packers (-7, 49) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 6 Recap:
-- The Panthers forged a 37-37 tie with the Bengals, as no team led by more than seven points in the game. Carolina grabbed the cover as seven-point underdogs, improving to 2-1 ATS on the highway. However, the Panthers remained winless against AFC North foes this season (0-2-1 SU), while allowing at least 37 points in each interconference contest.
-- The Packers rallied past the Dolphins, 27-24 on a late touchdown pass by Aaron Rodgers to lift Green Bay to its third straight win. After the line dropped from three to 1 ½, bettors that waited until Sunday won with the Packers, as Green Bay has won each of its past two road games since an 0-2 start away from Lambeau Field.

Previous meeting: Green Bay held off Carolina as 10 ½-point road favorites in Week 2 of the 2011 season, 30-23. Cam Newton made his Panthers’ home debut by throwing for 432 yards, but was intercepted three times. Carolina managed the cover with a late touchdown run by Newton, as the Panthers blew an early 13-0 lead. The Panthers won in their past visit to Lambeau Field in 2008 by outlasting the Packers, 35-31.

What to watch for: The Packers own a strong 9-1 SU/ATS record in the last 10 games as a home favorite started and ended by Aaron Rodgers (taking away the game he was injured in the first quarter against Chicago last season). Carolina has compiled a 9-2 ATS mark in the role of a road underdog since 2012, while going ‘under’ the total in five of the past seven away contests.


Saints at Lions (-3, 48) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 6 Recap:
-- New Orleans returns from the bye week following a dramatic comeback against Tampa Bay in Week 5, but failed to cover as 11-point favorites. The Saints saved many “suicide pool” contestants by erasing a 31-20 deficit to beat the Bucs in overtime, 37-31, overcoming three interceptions by Drew Brees to win just their second game of the season.
-- The Lions continue to play terrific defense, allowing 17 points or fewer for the fifth time in six games as Detroit took care of Minnesota, 17-3 as one-point road underdogs. Detroit’s defense picked off Teddy Bridgewater three times, while the Lions improved to 2-0 in NFC North action.

Previous meeting: The Saints eliminated the Lions in the Wild Card round of the 2011 playoffs at the Superdome, 45-28 as 10 ½-point favorites. Brees torched the Lions for 466 yards and three touchdown passes, as the Saints have won each of the last four meetings with Detroit by double-digits each. New Orleans makes its first trip to Ford Field since late in the 2008 season, when the Saints left with a 42-7 blowout of the Lions.

What to watch for: Since going ‘over’ in their opener, Detroit has cashed the ‘under’ in five straight games, but hasn’t scored more than 19 points in each of its past two home contests. The Saints are listed as an underdog for the first time this season (1-4 ATS), while going 3-3 ATS last season when receiving points (2-0 ATS in playoffs).


Chiefs at Chargers (-4, 45) – 4:05 PM EST

Week 6 Recap:
-- Kansas City is fresh off the bye as it heads back to the West Coast after dropping a 22-17 decision at San Francisco in Week 5 as 4 ½-point ‘dogs. The Chiefs racked up just 265 yards offensively in quarterback Alex Smith’s return to San Francisco, as Kansas City failed to score a point in the final 27 minutes of regulation after taking a 17-13 third quarter lead.
-- The Chargers won their fifth consecutive game after rallying late at Oakland, 31-28. San Diego failed to cover as 7 ½-point favorites, the first ATS loss for the Lightning Bolts this season in six tries. The Chargers have eclipsed the 30-point mark in three straight contests and four times in six games.

Previous meeting: San Diego swept the season series in 2013 by winning each game by three points each. The Chargers outlasted the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium as short ‘dogs, 41-38, then clinched a playoff berth in Week 17 in overtime, 27-24, even though Kansas City covered as 15 ½-point underdogs with many of their starters out. The Chiefs have lost six straight visits to Qualcomm Stadium, with the last victory coming in 2007 as 12-point underdogs.

What to watch for: The Chargers have covered five of their past six home games dating back to last season, while cashing the ‘over’ in four of the last six home contests against divisional foes (one ‘under’ closed at 56 against Denver). In Andy Reid’s career coaching the Eagles and Chiefs, he has won 13 of 15 games off the bye week, but one of those losses came in Reid’s debut season of 2013 against the Broncos.


Giants at Cowboys (-6 ½, 48) – 4:25 PM EST

Week 6 Recap:
-- The Giants put together an effort to forget in a 27-0 rout at the hands of the Eagles, while losing top receiver Victor Cruz for the season with a right knee injury. New York’s three-game winning streak came to a screeching halt, as all three losses for the Giants this season have come by double-digits.
-- The Cowboys keep cruising along, grabbing their fifth consecutive victory in a 30-23 upset at Seattle as 10-point underdogs to improve to 3-0 on the highway. What made this win even more impressive for Dallas was overcoming a 10-0 deficit against a team that had lost one home game since the start of 2012 prior to last Sunday.

Previous meeting: Dallas took both matchups from New York last season, including a 36-31 shootout victory in the season opener. That victory by the Cowboys snapped a four-game home losing streak to the Giants that dated back to 2009, as the last five contests played in Dallas have sailed ‘over’ the total.

What to watch for: Following a three-year stretch in which the Cowboys put together a dreadful 3-16 ATS record as a home favorite from 2010-2012, Dallas has somewhat improved in that role since 2013 with a 3-4 ATS mark. One of those non-covers came in a Week 5 overtime victory over Houston, while going 3-5 SU/ATS in the past eight home games against division foes. The Giants used to be a strong play as a road underdog (9-3-1 ATS from 2011-12), but New York owns a below average 4-5 ATS mark in this role since 2013.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Where the action is: Sunday's biggest NFL Week 7 line moves
By JASON LOGAN - WRITER

Lines for Week 7 of the NFL season have been juking and jiving since late Sunday night. We look at some of the most notable line adjustments and get insight into the action from Scott Kaminsky.

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions – Open: 52, Move: 47

At first glance, a matchup between these two teams would demand nothing but Over action. However, with Detroit’s offense sputtering along and the Saints’ struggles on the road, most of the money has walked this number down as much as five points heading into the weekend.

“In hindsight, we opened this total too high due to the fact both teams look like they are going to be missing their big weapons in (Jimmy) Graham and (Calvin) Johnson respectively,” says Kaminsky. “Also throw in the fact Detroit leads the league in defense. The wildcard factor here is how bad New Orleans’ defense is. We moved it rather quickly so we don't have a lot of liability due to those factors.”

Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins – Open: -4, Move: -6

Books opened Washington as a 4-point home favorite against a Titans squad starting backup QB Charlie Whitehurst again. Tennessee is coming off a victory over Jacksonville, which is far from enough to convince bettors to back them on the road in Week 7 – even against a Redskins team that has lost four in a row (1-3 ATS).

“It seems a little on the high side considering Washington has only have one win and that was against Jacksonville,” says Kaminsky. “Tennessee hasn't fared much better but they do have an impressive win over Kansas City and have been competitive against similar competition against weakfish teams like the Redskins. We will need Tennessee to cover here come kickoff.”

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: +4, Move: +6

Behind the Cowboys, the Browns were the most talked-about team in the NFL this week. Cleveland is off back-to-back wins and is 3-0-2 ATS on the year. Early money jumped Cleveland in this road game, pushing the spread to the key number of six. However, buy back took the Jaguars there and has this spread bouncing between Cleveland -5 and the half-point hook.

“The Browns offense has been one of the more surprising aspects thus far ranking 10th in points scored,” notes Kaminsky.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -5, Move: -7

This game opened with New York as a 5-point road underdog after Dallas invaded CenturyLink Field and took a win from the 12th Man in Week 6. Then the G-Men were promptly handed their own asses in a 27-0 blanking versus Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football. The line quickly jumped to a touchdown at some spot with money on the red-hot Cowboys.

“The X-factor here is the Dallas defense, which ranks ninth in points allowed. Put that together with their league leading rushing and the fact the Giants have suddenly had a relapse for the worse, and we are expecting the Cowboys to win easily,” says Kaminsky. “After opening the game Dallas -5.5 we kept the side on the high side compared to the market, drawing Giant money and will need the Cowboys in this game.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 7
By JASON LOGAN - WRITER

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 7:

Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears (-3.5, 48)

Dolphins’ starting field position vs. Bears’ poor return coverage

Miami has some issues on the offensive end but kick starting a drive with great field position isn’t one of them. The Dolphins are third in the NFL in average yards per kick return (29.2 ypr) and rank first in starting field position, finding themselves on average at their own 32 yard line when taking the ball. That great starting position has helped a very vanilla Miami attack average 24 points per game – pumping value into the Over for Fins games (4-1 O/U).

Chicago hasn’t done much to help its defense out when handing the ball to opponents. The Bears have watched foes start their drives at an average field position of 31.58 – third worst in the league behind only Oakland and Jacksonville. Chicago has allowed 9.9 yards per punt return and allowed a 79-yard punt return TD on a weirdo play to the Panthers in Week 5.

Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 49)

Falcons’ home runs vs. Ravens’ big-play problems

The Ravens defense hasn’t given up much. Baltimore has allowed only nine touchdowns – second fewest in the NFL – and has put the clamps on opponents inside the 20-yard line, boasting a stingy 35 percent TD percentage in the red zone. However, the Ravens have shown a big weakness to the pass – 27th in the league vs. the pass (270.5 ypg) – and ranks second worst in protecting against big plays (20 or more yards), getting bombed for 16 passing plays of 20-plus gains.

Enter the Falcons, who do nothing but air it out to a talented receiving corps. Atlanta is tied for tops in the league in red-zone TD percentage (75%) but actually rarely needs to get inside the 20-yard line to score. It averages just 2.0 red-zone scoring attempts per game, usually finding paydirt from deep. The Falcons pick up 12.1 yards per completion - 10.3 on the road. While Atlanta doesn’t perform as well away from the Georgia Dome, oddsmakers are expecting some fireworks with this total hovering around 49 points.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 48)

Giants’ dominance in Dallas vs. Cowboys’ crappy home field

On paper, the Giants should be crapping their pants hitting the road after being shutout and visiting a team that just handled the defending Super Bowl champs in the most hostile of territories last week. But, the G-Men are right at home in AT&T Stadium. New York has won four of its previous five trips to “Jerrassic Park” SU and ATS, including the Cowboys stadium opener in which Eli Manning tagged the visitors’ locker room back in 2009.

The “Ba-gillion” dollar stadium draws pigskin patrons from all over, making it a destination for visiting fans. The Cowboys have complained all season about how loud the stadium gets when they’re trying to pick up a key third down, with Tony Romo slyly pleading with Dallas fans to fill the seats even joking that he would resort to buying tickets himself to keep the rival roars at bay. “If I need to, it would be worth it,” Romo told Fox Sports.

San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (-6.5, 49.5)

49ers’ late-game defense vs. Broncos’ altitude edge

A big part of the Niners’ return to form has been their defense late in games. Over the past three games, in which San Francisco has won three straight and outscored opponents 79-55, the 49ers have allowed an average of just 3.3 points in the second half in that stretch and have given up just a single field goal in the fourth quarter in that three-game winning run.

That stingy stop unit and its ability to tighten up in the final frames will be put to the test by the thin air of Mile High. The Niners defense could be sucking wind with the Broncos expected to pick up the pace with a no-huddle attack. Denver will attempt to wear down this defense, especially at linebacker where San Francisco was already thin and now dealing with an injury to defensive captain Patrick Willis. The Broncos are averaging 17 points per second half in their last three games - 13.7 points per fourth quarter.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Prop Shop: Week 7's best player prop picks
By SEAN MURPHY

Don't just limit your bets to sides and total on NFL Sundays. Sean Murphy opens up the doors to the NFL Prop Shop, giving his best player prop picks for Week 7's action:

Most passing yards

Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints) vs. Matt Stafford (Detroit Lions)

Yes, Detroit's defense has been fierce this season. The Lions are coming off an eight-sack performance against the Vikings. But that was the Vikings, these are the Saints - coming off a bye no less. I'm expecting New Orleans to do a much better job of keeping Drew Brees upright and I like the matchup of Brees against the Lions secondary.

Calvin Johnson still isn't 100 percent healthy and Matt Stafford doesn't appear any closer to getting on the same page as his re-tooled receiving corps. The Lions won't feast on the Saints leaky defense this week.

Take: Brees

Ryan Tannehill (Miami Dolphins) vs. Jay Cutler (Chicago Bears)

The Dolphins defense has been up and down this season, but the potential is there for this unit to apply consistent pressure on Jay Cutler. Cutler has the better receivers to work with but I expect Ryan Tannehill to have the better game from a yardage standpoint.

Tannehill didn't have a great game against the Packers last Sunday, but he did come around in the second half, guiding the Fins on three touchdown drives. Despite completing only 20 passes, he still threw for 244 yards. I like him to improve on those numbers this week.

Take: Tannehill

Most rushing yards

Jamaal Charles (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. Branden Oliver (San Diego Chargers)

Ryan Mathews' return is on the horizon, but for now, Branden Oliver is the focal point of the Chargers offense. I don't expect that to change Sunday, and I believe we're still getting considerable value with this game-breaking back. In two starts, Oliver has gained 215 yards on 45 carries. His longest run went for only 12 yards last week, but he'll be able to break a few long ones against the Chiefs this week.

Jamaal Charles' reputation precedes him but the fact is, he's yet to run for 100 yards in a game this season (he's obviously been hampered by injury once again). He's a home-run hitter, but I'm not convinced he'll get enough touches to outrush Oliver.

Take: Oliver

Most pass receptions

Kendall Wright (Tennessee Titans) vs. Pierre Garcon (Washington Redskins)

Kirk Cousins completed 24 passes and threw for 354 yards in Arizona last week, but he only found Pierre Garcon four times. Since hauling in 11 catches in Week 3, Garcon has only eight receptions in the last three games. He'll be a bigger part of the offensive game plan against Tennessee this weekend.

Kendall Wright has been a far more consistent receiver than Garcon this season, but disappeared last Sunday, making just one catch. With the Tennessee offense averaging just under 19 pass completions per game, I'm not sure there are enough catches to go around to help Wright defeat Garcon in this matchup.

Take: Garcon

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's Top Action

CINCINNATI BENGALS (3-1-1) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (4-2)

Line & Total: Indianapolis -3, Total: 50
Opening Line & Total: Indianapolis -3, Total: 48.5

The Colts look for their fifth straight victory when they host the Bengals on Sunday.

While Cincinnati came away with a 37-37 tie in its Week 6 matchup with the Panthers, Indianapolis jumped out to a big lead and held on for a 33-28 win as a 2.5-point favorite in Houston on Thursday. The Colts are now 5-1 ATS on the season. The Bengals won the most recent meeting last December by a 42-28 score as 7.5-point favorites. QB Andrew Luck threw four touchdowns in that game, but the Indianapolis defense was unable to stop Cincinnati. But when playing at home, the Colts are 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS versus the Bengals since 1992, and are also 6-0 ATS at Lucas Oil Stadium in Weeks 5 through 9 over the past three years. Indy is also 12-1 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 in that time. The Bengals are, however, 11-1 ATS after allowing 400+ total yards in two straight games since 1992. WR A.J. Green (toe) is doubtful for Cincinnati. DE Arthur Jones (ankle) is likely to return to practice for the Colts, but he’s questionable for the game on Sunday.

The Bengals have played extremely well to this point in the season, and a lot of that is thanks to the play of RB Giovani Bernard (384 rush yards, 4 TD). Bernard rushed for a career-high 137 yards in a tie against the Panthers last game. He found the end zone on an 89-yard score and also caught four passes for 20 yards. With WR A.J. Green (17 rec, 314 yards, 2 TD) likely to be out or severely banged up against the Colts, Bernard will have a heavy workload. WR Mohamed Sanu (27 rec, 354 yards, 3 TD) will again take over for Green as the No. 1 receiver for the Bengals in this game if he can’t go. He was outstanding against the Panthers and caught 10 passes for 120 yards and a touchdown.

This Colts defense is, however, very opportunistic. QB Andy Dalton (1,249 pass yards, 6 TD, 3 INT) will really need to take care of the ball in this game. Dalton threw for 323 yards and two touchdowns in the tie against the Panthers, but he also tossed two costly interceptions. With Green out, Dalton needs to manage the game better. This defense started the year off well, but it has surrendered 40.0 PPG in its past two contests. The Bengals are allowing 141.4 rushing YPG (29th in NFL) and 257.4 passing YPG (22nd in NFL). These numbers are alarming with a red-hot offense next on the schedule.

The Colts are coming off their fourth straight victory and QB Andrew Luck (1,987 pass yards, 17 TD, 7 INT) has now passed for more than 300 yards in three straight games and five of six total games this year. Luck is moving his offense at a very high level and should have no problem throwing on a defense that has been lit up the past two weeks. RBs Ahmad Bradshaw (284 rush yards, 5 rec TD) and Trent Richardson (281 rush yards, 2 TD) will be huge factors in determining the outcome of this game. The Colts rushed for just 93 yards in their win over the Texans, but that total won’t fly in most games. They should have less trouble rushing against a poor Bengals’ run defense.

WR T.Y. Hilton (40 rec, 604 yards, 1 TD) has been on a tear for the Colts recently. Hilton caught nine passes for 223 yards and a touchdown in Houston on Thursday. That marked his second straight game with nine receptions, and he should be in for a big Sunday afternoon against this Bengals defense. The Colts are allowing just 107.5 rushing YPG (11th in NFL), and they’ll need to continue to be successful against the versatile Giovani Bernard. This defense is allowing 233.0 passing YPG (14th in NFL), which means they could have some trouble with Andy Dalton if he is able to limit his mistakes.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-3) at DETROIT LIONS (4-2)

Line & Total: Detroit -2.5, Total: 48
Opening Line & Total: Detroit -2.5, Total: 50

The Saints look to get back to .500 when they head to Ford Field on Sunday to take on the Lions.

New Orleans is coming off a bye, and the team is 5-0 (SU and ATS) with an extra week of rest over the past five seasons. Detroit went to Minnesota last week and won 17-3 while holding the Vikings to just 212 yards of total offense. Lions offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi should be able to help his defense prepare for the Saints high-octane offense, as he spent 2007 to 2013 as an offensive assistant/QB coach with New Orleans. These teams have played just 10 times since 1992, with the Saints going 7-3 (SU and ATS) in those contests. Since 1992, Detroit is 5-17 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5. The Lions are also 10-28 ATS after having won three of their past four games in that time. The Saints, however, are 2-9 ATS in road games where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the past two years. Both teams figure to be without their top pass catchers, as New Orleans TE Jimmy Graham (shoulder) and Detroit WR Calvin Johnson (ankle) are both doubtful to play.

New Orleans heads to Detroit with a chance to get its season back on track and the matchup should be a good one for QB Drew Brees (1,574 pass yards, 9 TD, 6 INT). Brees has dominated the Lions in his career, going 4-0 (SU and ATS) with 14 TD and 1 INT. He has also thrown for 379.2 yards per game in those contests. Unfortunately for Brees, this Lions defense is much improved, and TE Jimmy Graham (34 rec, 376 yards, 3 TD) will be out. One player who could help spark this offense is RB Mark Ingram (143 rush yards, 3 TD), who is returning from a hand injury he suffered early in the season. Ingram was a monster in the first two weeks of the year and he could significantly help this team in the red zone.

As good as New Orleans can be offensively, it will need to improve on the defensive end. The Saints are allowing 267.6 passing YPG (25th in NFL) and have now surrendered 34.5 PPG over their past two contests. The Lions are capable of putting up big offensive numbers, so New Orleans will need to make sure they’re disciplined defensively. They should benefit from Detroit playing without star WR Calvin Johnson (22 rec, 348 yards, 2 TD).

The Lions played an unbelievable game defensively in a 17-3 victory over the Vikings, and are now allowing just 197.2 passing yards per game (1st in NFL) and 73.5 rushing yards per game (2nd in NFL). They have also held their past four opponents to a mere 11.0 points per game. While they are unlikely to completely stop the Saints offense, this is the best defensive team in the NFL, and they should be able to make life difficult for Drew Brees. QB Matthew Stafford (1,592 pass yards, 7 TD, 4 INT) will need to be better in this game than he has been against the Saints in his career. The Lions’ quarterback is 0-3 SU and ATS versus New Orleans under Sean Payton and has thrown only four touchdowns with six picks in those games.

With Calvin Johnson out, things won’t be easier for him. He’ll need to make high percentage throws, while looking for WR Golden Tate (38 rec, 495 yards, 1 TD) regularly. Tate has been the most reliable receiver for the Lions this season and he should be able to break free for a couple of big plays against this porous New Orleans secondary. RB Joique Bell (226 yards, 2 TD) will likely lead this backfield in carries once again, and his powerful style of running will open things up for Stafford to find his receivers. The Lions also expect to have elusive RB Reggie Bush (161 rush yards, 1 TD) back on the field after he missed last week with an ankle injury.

NEW YORK GIANTS (3-3) at DALLAS COWBOYS (5-1)

Line & Total: Dallas -6.5, Total: 48
Opening Line & Total: Dallas -5.5, Total: 48

The Cowboys look to win their sixth straight game when they host the Giants on Sunday.

While Dallas went into Seattle last week and stunned the Seahawks with a 30-23 victory, the Giants went to Philly and were blown out 27-0. Dallas has gotten the best of this rivalry recently, winning-and-covering in both games in 2013. The Cowboys are 3-1 SU and ATS versus New York over the previous two seasons, but the Giants had won-and-covered in four straight in Dallas before the Cowboys snapped that streak last season. New York QB Eli Manning has thrown for 335.6 yards per game with 12 touchdowns and eight interceptions in his past five games in Big D, while Dallas QB Tony Romo has struggled with 10 touchdowns and eight picks in those games.

The Giants are 49-29 ATS in road games off of a division game since 1992. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are 11-3 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two years. New York will likely be without its top two skill players in WR Victor Cruz (knee, IR) and RB Rashad Jennings (knee, doubtful). Dallas could be thin on the defensive end with LB Bruce Carter (quad) and DE Tyrone Crawford (calf) both questionable.

The Giants went into their matchup with the Eagles on a three-game win streak, but were blown out and lost top WR Victor Cruz (23 rec, 337 yards, 1 TD) to a season-ending knee injury (torn right patellar tendon) in the process. QB Eli Manning (1,325 pass yards, 11 TD, 5 INT) struggled in that game and couldn’t get his team to put up any points against a bad Philadelphia defense. He now turns his attention to a Cowboys team that he has had a lot of success against in the past. He’ll need to avoid turning the ball over in order to have his team in this game on the road. WR Odell Beckham Jr. (8 rec, 72 yards, 1 TD) will likely slot into Cruz’s position as the No. 1 wide receiver on this team. He should be able to use his freakish athleticism to get himself open against Dallas.

RB Andre Williams (228 yards, 2 TD) will likely start again for this team with RB Rashad Jennings hurting, and he will try to improve upon his 58 rushing yards on 16 carries in the loss to the Eagles. He’ll need to be quicker and more decisive going forward than he was in that game. This Giants defense had allowed just 17.0 PPG in their three games prior to playing the Eagles. It’s a good unit, but they can be beaten by this powerful Cowboys offense.

Dallas is the hottest team in the NFL after winning its fifth straight game in an impressive road victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks. QB Tony Romo (1,510 pass yards, 11 TD, 5 INT) has played very well this season and that didn’t change in Seattle, where he threw for 250 yards and zero interceptions. He should be able to find plenty of success against the Giants defense. WR Dez Bryant (36 rec, 437 yards, 4 TD) had just four catches for 64 yards in the win over the Seahawks, but he should be utilized way more often against the Giants. The Cowboys, however, will likely be going to the ground more often than they pass in this one. RB DeMarco Murray (785 yards, 6 TD) is the NFL’s leading rusher and has had at least 100 yards in every game this season.

The Giants struggled to contain Eagles RB LeSean McCoy last game and that will only get worse against Murray, who is the most complete running back in football right now. The Cowboys defense has been a lot better than expected this year, allowing just 227.5 passing yards per game (12th in NFL) and 115.0 rushing yards per game (17th in NFL). Dallas isn’t spectacular at defending either method of attack, but the club is solid at both. The Cowboys should be able to contain the Giants, who are without their starting running back and most talented wide receiver.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SNF - 49ers at Broncos

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (4-2) at DENVER BRONCOS (4-1)

Line & Total: Denver -6.5, Total: 49.5
Opening Line & Total: Denver -7, Total: 49.5

The 49ers look to win their fourth straight game when they visit the Broncos on Sunday night.

Denver escaped with a 31-17 victory over the Jets on the road in Week 6, and now the team hosts a San Francisco team that has been fantastic defensively this season. The 49ers rank among the top five NFL clubs in both rushing and passing yards allowed per game, and won their third straight contest (SU and ATS) with a 31-17 win over the Rams on Monday night. These teams have met just six times since 1992 and the 49ers are 4-2 (SU and ATS) in those games. When playing in Denver, the teams have split wins SU and ATS in that span. Broncos QB Peyton Manning is 2-0 SU against the 49ers in his career, but he’s just 1-1 ATS and has struggled individually with just one touchdown to two interceptions in those games.

Since becoming the coach of the 49ers, Jim Harbaugh is 12-2 ATS in October games with the team. He is also 6-0 ATS when playing a team who forces one or less turnovers a game with the 49ers. The Broncos, meanwhile, are 48-28 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992. LB Patrick Willis (toe) is questionable for San Francisco in this one.

The 49ers started off poorly in their win over the Rams, but they played a very good second half and will carry that momentum into this meeting with the Broncos. QB Colin Kaepernick (1,456 pass yards, 10 TD, 4 INT) has really gotten himself going in recent weeks. Since a three-interception game against the Bears in Week 2, Kaepernick has thrown seven touchdown passes with just one interception. He was 22-of-36 for 343 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions in the win over St. Louis and should be able to play well against a below average Broncos’ secondary. If the 49ers are going to upset the Broncos on the road, however, then RB Frank Gore (403 rush yards, 1 TD) will need to be much better than he was against St. Louis. Gore rushed for just 38 yards on 16 attempts and he will be relied upon to turn things around against Denver. This game could come down to who controls the clock, and the 49ers won’t be able to do that without Gore at his best.

The Broncos are now 4-1 after defeating the Jets in New York last Sunday. QB Peyton Manning (1,530 yards, 15 TD, 3 INT) threw for 237 yards with three touchdowns and no picks in that game, but now he’ll face the 49ers, who are allowing just 207.3 yards per game through the air (2nd in NFL). If there’s anybody that will hang a big passing game on the 49ers though, it’s Manning. He’ll break down their coverage before the plays start and will be looking frequently for his top receiver, WR Demaryius Thomas (31 rec, 491 yards, 4 TD). Thomas has been the hottest receiver in football over the past two weeks, catching 18 passes for 350 yards and 3 TD in those games. The 49ers will be doing everything they possibly can to prevent him from getting open for a deep ball. The Broncos defense, meanwhile, is performing at a high level as well. This unit is allowing just 241.4 passing YPG (16th in NFL) and 76.8 rushing YPG (4th in NFL). They’ve allowed just 20.8 PPG on the season, which is excellent considering they’re scoring 29.4 PPG themselves.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Falcons going through rough patch ATS
Stephen Campbell

The Atlanta Falcons have gone ice cold for their spread backers, covering in just one of their last five games.

Matt Ryan's crew invade M&T Bank Stadium Sunday for a date with the Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens are currently 6.5-point home faves with an O/U of 50.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dogs prevailing in Titans-Redskins matchups
Stephen Campbell

When the Tennessee Titans and the Washington Redskins get together, the underdogs have been coming out on top.

The dogs are 4-0 ATS in the last four games between the two clubs. The Titans will take on the 'Skins once again in D.C. Sunday.

Washington is presently 6-point home faves with the total set at 45.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jags struggling to cover vs. AFC teams
Stephen Campbell

The Jacksonville Jaguars have had a tough time covering across the board in recent years, but it's been especially hard for them against the AFC.

The Jags are 1-5-1 in their last seven games against AFC teams. Jacksonville hosts Cleveland Friday for another matchup with a club from the conference.

The Jags are presently 5.5-point home dogs. The total is sitting at 44.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Colts have become a boon for Over bettors
Stephen Campbell

If you've been paying attention to recent Indianapolis Colts games, you're well aware of just how profitable they've been for bettors backing the Over.

The Over is 7-1 in the Colts' previous eight games. Indy welcomes the Cincinnati Bengals to Lucas Oil Stadium Sunday.

Andrew Luck's squad are currently 3-point home faves with an O/U of 49.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Seahawks-Rams have history of going Under
Stephen Campbell

The Under has been the hot bet when the St. Louis Rams and the Seattle Seahawks clash.

All four of the last four games between the two teams have gone under the total. They'll face off again in Missouri Sunday.

The Seahawks are presently 6.5-point road faves with an O/U of 42.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vikings continue to be a poor spread play
Stephen Campbell

It's been a rough season for the Minnesota Vikings, and it's showing in their results against the spread.

The Vikes are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games. They'll try and turn that around Sunday against the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

The Bills are currently 5-point home favorites with a total of 43.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rams set to make home underdog milestone
Stephen Campbell

When the Seattle Seahawks take on the St. Louis Rams at the Edward George Dome Sunday, it will most likely mark an undesirable milestone for Jeff Fisher's crew.

The Rams (1-4 SU) are currently 7-point home dogs for the matchup. If the Seahawks stay favored as is expected, it will be the 50th time since the start of the 2005 season that the Rams are underdogs on their own field, per the Spreadapedia database.

No other team has been home underdogs more often during that span. The Rams are just 12-37 against the spread at the Edward Jones Dome since - a paltry .245 winning percentage.

The total for the contest is presently set at 43.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: 49ers at Broncos

San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (-7, 49)

Peyton Manning can shatter the NFL record for career touchdown passes when the Denver Broncos host the surging San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night. Manning needs three scoring strikes to surpass the all-time record of 508 held by Brett Favre, but the league's only five-time Most Valuable Player said his focus is on San Francisco. “We’re playing a tough schedule, we've got the 49ers at home and they've been one of the dominant teams of the past couple years," Manning said. "That’s all I’m thinking about.”

San Francisco has a short week to prepare for Manning and the Broncos after spotting St. Louis an early 14-point lead before roaring back for a 31-17 victory on Monday night, extending its winning streak to three games. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick is coming off his finest performance of the season, throwing for 343 yards and three scoring passes to keep the 49ers a half-game behind first-place Arizona in the NFC West. San Francisco's defense offers a test for Manning, ranking second in both total yards (287.2) and passing yards (207.3).

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The line initially opened at Denver -6.5 where it stayed for several fays before moving to -7. The total has been dropping sincer opening at 50.5, it is now sitting at 49.

INJURY REPORT: 49ers - WR Stevie Johnson (Prob-Hip), S Jimmie Ward (Ques-Quadricep), CB Chris Culliver (Ques-Shoulder) Broncos - RB Juwan Thompson (Prob-Knee)

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a nice night for football with clear skies, minimum winds and a temperature around 68°F.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Denver enters a rough stretch ahead with games against the 49ers, Chargers and Patriots. They are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 non-divisional home favorites of less than 17 points. Now playing on short rest and heading to Denver, the 49ers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games." - Matt Fargo

ABOUT THE 49ERS (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 2-4 O/U): San Francisco could be shorthanded for the duel with Manning, with Pro Bowl linebacker Patrick Willis expected to miss the game and cornerback Jimmie Ward a question mark after suffering injuries against St. Louis, leaving the 49ers without three of their top linebackers. Defensive back Perrish Cox said the team has confidence in rookie Chris Borland, who replaced Willis on Monday night and register two tackles and a pair of pass breakups. "“We've all got trust in Chris Borland,” Cox said. "He’s got big shoes to fill. We’re going to miss Pat in this game, but we’ve all just got to step in.” San Francisco may lean on running back Frank Gore, who was limited to 38 yards last week but went over 100 yards in each of his previous two games.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Manning has one of the league's best weapons and a matchup nightmare in third-year tight end Julius Thomas, who hauled in two more scoring passes in last week's 31-17 win over the New York Jets to give him nine for the season - tying Calvin Johnson for the most in league history through five games. Wideout Demaryius Thomas shook off a slow start and has put up a pair of monster games since the bye week, hauling in 18 catches for 350 yards and three touchdowns while running back Ronnie Hillman rushed for 100 yards against the Jets in his first career start. Manning has thrown for at least three TDs in four of the five games and has 15 scoring passes versus three interceptions. Linebacker Von Miller has six sacks for Denver, which is allowing only 76.8 yards rushing per game.

TRENDS:

*49ers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.
*Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
*Under is 4-0 in 49ers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
*Over is 10-2 in Broncos last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

CINCINNATI (3 - 1 - 1) at INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 2) - 10/19/2014, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in October games since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (2 - 4) at WASHINGTON (1 - 5) - 10/19/2014, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 41-22 ATS (+16.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 54-83 ATS (-37.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 73-100 ATS (-37.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 73-100 ATS (-37.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 73-100 ATS (-37.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 17-39 ATS (-25.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (2 - 3) at CHICAGO (3 - 3) - 10/19/2014, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (3 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 6) - 10/19/2014, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (3 - 2) at ST LOUIS (1 - 4) - 10/19/2014, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 29-54 ATS (-30.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 38-58 ATS (-25.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SEATTLE is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 137-175 ATS (-55.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 137-175 ATS (-55.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 69-97 ATS (-37.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 99-138 ATS (-52.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 106-138 ATS (-45.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 51-74 ATS (-30.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 3-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (3 - 2 - 1) at GREEN BAY (4 - 2) - 10/19/2014, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 158-114 ATS (+32.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 62-41 ATS (+16.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (2 - 4) at BALTIMORE (4 - 2) - 10/19/2014, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (2 - 4) at BUFFALO (3 - 3) - 10/19/2014, 1:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (2 - 3) at DETROIT (4 - 2) - 10/19/2014, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 50-73 ATS (-30.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (2 - 3) at SAN DIEGO (5 - 1) - 10/19/2014, 4:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 3-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 4-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (3 - 3) at DALLAS (5 - 1) - 10/19/2014, 4:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (4 - 1) at OAKLAND (0 - 5) - 10/19/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 37-71 ATS (-41.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 48-70 ATS (-29.0 Units) off a division game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 2) at DENVER (4 - 1) - 10/19/2014, 8:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
DENVER is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 48-28 ATS (+17.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (3 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 3) - 10/20/2014, 8:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 59-36 ATS (+19.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.