Sunday 1/3/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL notebook: Broncos QB Manning probable vs. Chargers
By The Sports Xchange

Denver quarterback Peyton Manning was listed as probable on Friday's injury report and is expected to be available when the Broncos face the San Diego Chargers on Sunday.
Manning has been sidelined since Nov. 15 due to a plantar fascia tear in his left foot. He would serve as the backup quarterback behind Brock Osweiler.
Manning was able to get in a full week of practice and has recently been making strong strides in his recovery.
Manning has struggled much of the season and has thrown nearly twice as many interceptions (17) as touchdown passes (nine).
Osweiler will be starting his seventh consecutive game. He has thrown nine touchdowns against four interceptions.

---Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck's early season injuries may have been worse than reported at the time.
Luck will miss his ninth game of the season when he sits out Sunday's regular-season finale against the Tennessee Titans because of his unhealed lacerated kidney.
But according to Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star, Luck sustained torn cartilage on two of his ribs and was still coping with significant pain after returning to the lineup for four games in late October and early November.
An NFL source said the injury likely affected Luck's performance after he returned from a two-game absence that the Colts attributed to a shoulder injury. Luck, according to the source, needed pain-killing injections to play and was limited by the injury, which impacted his throwing motion and accuracy.
The information provided by the IndyStar source is similar to a report from Fox Sports' Jay Glazer, who said in November that Luck was dealing with fractured ribs and was playing through the pain. Luck missed games against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Oct. 4 and Houston Texans on Oct. 8 before returning to play an Oct. 18 game against the New England Patriots. The Colts attributed his absence to a shoulder injury but never mentioned his ribs.

---Colts coach Chuck Pagano said Friday he isn't sure who will be the starting quarterback, with both Matt Hasselbeck (shoulder) and Luck declared out for Sunday's game against the Tennessee Titans.
Backup quarterback Charlie Whitehurst (hamstring) was placed on injuried reserve this week after getting hurt in last Sunday's 18-12 win over the Miami Dolphins.
The Colts are left with recently signed quarterbacks Josh Freeman and Ryan Lindley as well as undrafted free agent rookie Stephen Morris.
Morris was signed off of the Philadelphia Eagles practice squad last week, but the two veterans have been getting the first-team snaps at practice this week.

---Cleveland Browns head coach Mike Pettine, who has received no assurances from owner Jimmy Haslam about 2016, expects changes on his staff if he survives.
Pettine signed a four-year deal with a team option for the fifth year to be the team's coach early in 2014. The Browns started 7-4 a year ago but have lost 17 of their past 20 games.
Haslam said in training camp he would not "blow it up" after this season, but a 3-12 campaign has led to speculation about Pettine's future.
"Those discussions will remain between Jimmy and I,'' Pettine said Thursday. "Will there likely be some changes? If I were to stay here, it would be hard to justify keeping the staff completely together, and there likely would have to be some changes made, but I won't get into specifics."
The Browns' defense has been one of the biggest disappointments this season. The defense has fallen to 26th overall, 32nd against the run and 29th with 26.9 points allowed per game.

---The Dallas Cowboys have made it clear head coach Jason Garrett's job is "safe" despite the team's disappointing 4-11 record this season.
The Cowboys are 1-10 without quarterback Tony Romo, who twice broke his collarbone -- Week 2 and Thanksgiving Day -- forcing Dallas to use four starters in the first 15 games. The Cowboys were 12-4 and won the NFC East last season.
"He's safe," Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones told NFL Media's Albert Breer this week. "Change isn't always the right answer. We're not big believers in it. Jason, a year ago, everyone thought he hung the moon. That's the terrible thing about this business: You take one year, and change everything. This doesn't faze us, it won't faze us. We're totally in with Jason. We're totally in with our staff."
The Cowboys finish the regular season Sunday against the division champion Washington Redskins. The Cowboys will try to avoid standing alone with the franchise's worst record since the 1-15 1989 season -- Jerry Jones ' first year of ownership.

---Carolina running back Jonathan Stewart will miss his third straight game with a foot injury when the Panthers face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Sunday's regular-season finale.
Stewart was officially ruled out on Friday. He sprained his left foot in a victory over the Atlanta Falcons on Dec. 13. Stewart leads the Panthers with 989 yards and six touchdowns.
Receiver Ted Ginn Jr. (knee) is listed as doubtful with a knee injury. Ginn has a career-best 10 touchdown receptions, two of which came against Tampa Bay earlier this season.
The Panthers (14-1) can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a victory.

---The Buccaneers placed starting safety Chris Conte on injured reserve and promoted linebacker Darius Eubanks from the practice squad to the active roster.
Conte was kept him out of last Sunday's game against the Chicago Bears with a knee injury. He started 13 of 14 games that he played this season, totaling 78 tackles, six tackles for loss, six passes defensed, two interceptions, two forced fumbles and one special teams tackle.

---The Pittsburgh Steelers released wide receiver/kick returner Jacoby Jones and promoted safety Ross Ventrone to the active roster.
Jones, who had three fumbles in 15 returns, one for a turnover. He averaged 24.4 yards per kickoff return and 3.2 yards per punt return. Jones lost those duties after he fumbled the opening kickoff against the Colts in Week 13.
Wide receiver Martavis Bryant is questionable for Sunday's game against the Browns because of an illness. Bryant is second on the team in touchdown receptions with six.

---Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy will miss the season finale against the New York Jets due to a knee injury.
McCoy was officially ruled out on Friday. It will be his second consecutive missed game.
McCoy, acquired from the Philadelphia Eagles in the offseason, finishes the season with 895 rushing yards.
Linebacker Nigel Bradham (ankle) and cornerback Ron Brooks (hip) will also sit out for the Bills.

---The Houston Texans will be without outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney when they attempt to clinch the AFC South title on Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Clowney was injured in the fourth quarter of Houston's win over Tennessee last Sunday and hasn't practiced all week.
Receiver Cecil Shorts III (hamstring) will also sit out on Sunday.

---Jaguars rookie running back T.J. Yeldon will miss his third consecutive game due to a knee injury.
Yeldon was officially ruled out on Friday as the sprained ligament in his left knee hasn't improved enough to allow him to play on against the Texas. Yeldon leads the Jaguars with 740 yards.
Standout linebacker Telvin Smith (shoulder) and backup defensive tackle Abry Jones (knee) will also miss the game. Smith leads Jacksonville with 128 tackles.

---New England Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman, who has not played since breaking a bone in his left foot on Nov. 15, did not travel with the team to South Florida ahead of Sunday's regular-season finale against the Miami Dolphins.
Edelman was spotted working out at Gillette Stadium while fans arrived for Friday's Winter Classic between the Boston Bruins and Montreal Canadiens, according to ESPN.com.
Edelman had some fun on Twitter, posting an edited picture of coach Bill Belichick, tight end Rob Gronkowski, wide receiver Danny Amendola and himself as Bruins.
"Hey @NHLBruins, need a couple more enforcers today? #WinterClassic," Edelman tweeted.
Edelman has been out of the lineup since being injured against the New York Giants in Week 10. He has been practicing on a limited basis for the past three weeks.
New England (12-3) can clinch home field throughout the AFC playoffs with a win Sunday.

---The Colts waived wide receiver Griff Whalen from the injured reserve list. He was placed on IR with broken ribs on Dec. 21, ending his season.
Whalen played in 14 games for the Colts this season and caught 19 passes for 205 yards and one touchdown. He also had 12 punt returns for 85 yards (7.1 average) and nine kickoff returns for 244 yards (27.1 average).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL notebook: Eagles interview ex-RB Staley for coaching job
By The Sports Xchange

The Philadelphia Eagles announced Saturday that they interviewed former running back Duce Staley for their head coaching job.
Staley, who is the team's running backs coach, was interviewed Friday. The job opened up after the team fired Chip Kelly earlier this week.
Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur is the Eagles' interim coach for Sunday's finale against the New York Giants. Team owner Jeffrey Lurie said after firing Kelly that Shurmur is a candidate for the permanent job.
Staley, 40, is believed to be a favorite to become the head coach. He played seven seasons with the Eagles. By interviewing Staley, the team also fulfilled the NFL's Rooney Rule, which requires including a minority among head coaching candidates.
In 10 NFL seasons, Staley ran for 4,807 yards. He retired as an Eagle in 2007 and joined the team's coaching staff in 2010. He has been the running backs coach since 2013.

---Cleveland Browns head coach Mike Pettine has received no assurances from owner Jimmy Haslam about his future and could be coaching his final game Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Media's Ian Rapoport reported that Pettine asked Haslam whether he would be back after Sunday and the owner refused to answer.
Haslam said in training camp he would not "blow it up" after this season, but a 3-12 campaign has led to speculation about Pettine's future.
Browns staffers emerged from a meeting with Pettine on Friday and felt like he would be fired after the season, multiple sources told Cleveland.com.
According to Cleveland.com sources, Pettine talked to Haslam about the coaching staff and was told that a decision would not be made until after the game and after a possible move in the personnel department on Monday.
General manager Ray Farmer is also on the hot seat. In their two years together, Pettine and Farmer have gone 10-21, including losses in 17 of their last 20 games after the Browns started 7-4 a year ago.

---The Miami Dolphins placed wide receiver Rishard Matthews on injured reserve and signed linebacker Mike Hull off the practice squad.
Matthews had missed the past four games with a rib injury. The fourth-year player started 11 games this season and set career highs in receptions (43), receiving yards (662) and touchdowns (four).

---Green Bay Packers cornerback Sam Shields (concussion) has been downgraded for Sunday night's clash with the Minnesota Vikings.
The change in status leaves Shields in danger of missing his third consecutive game.
The Packers also upgraded nose tackle B.J. Raji (concussion) and linebacker Mike Neal (hip) to probable. Raji suffered the concussion in last Sunday's loss to the Arizona Cardinals, and Neal was also hurt in that contest.
The winner of the game will be the NFC North champions and the losing team will land a wild-card berth.

---Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch, who will miss his seventh straight game following hernia surgery, is expected to return to practice Monday as the team prepares for the playoffs.
Head coach Pete Carroll indicated Friday that Lynch should be rejoining the Seahawks next week.
"I have an expectation of that," Carroll said of Monday's return. "Let me say I'm anticipating that."
Lynch has missed the past six games after undergoing surgery to repair an abdomen injury on Nov. 25. He will not play Sunday in the regular-season finale against the Arizona Cardinals.
Lynch has not returned to the team's facility and continues to work through his rehabilitation in the San Francisco Bay Area.

---The San Francisco 49ers placed linebacker Michael Wilhoite on injured reserve.
Wilhoite started the first 12 games of the season before injuring an ankle. He finished the season with 86 tackles, one interception and one pass breakup.
The 49ers activated running back Mike Davis from injured reserve/designated for return to the 53-man roster.

---St. Louis Rams running back Todd Gurley is a candidate for NFL Rookie of the Year, but it appears he won't have the chance to add to his numbers in Sunday's season finale against the San Francisco 49ers.
Gurley didn't practice this week because of a foot injury suffered late in last Sunday's win over the Seahawks, and he has been in a boot all week.
Gurley would finish the season with 1,108 yards rushing on 229 carries (4.8-yard average) and 10 touchdowns. He added 21 receptions for 188 yards. His combined yards from scrimmage of 1,296 yards currently accounts for 29.5 percent of the team's total yards.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SuperContest Picks - Week 17

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,727 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $906,675, plus the top 50 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Through 16 weeks of the season, the Top 5 Consensus Picks have gone 43-35-2 (55%) in the SuperContest.

Week 17

1) Buffalo (403)
2) Green Bay (392)
3) N.Y. Giants (327)
4) N.Y. Jets (327)
5) Pittsburgh (317)

SuperContest Week 17 Matchups & Odds
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
N.Y. Jets (-3) 327 Buffalo (+3) 403
Tampa Bay (+10.5) 254 Carolina (-10.5) 92
New England (-10.5) 198 Miami (+10.5) 251
Baltimore (+9) 167 Cincinnati (-9) 224
New Orleans (+4) 168 Atlanta (-4) 248
Jacksonville (+6) 178 Houston (-6) 297
Pittsburgh (-10.5) 317 Cleveland (+10.5) 115
Oakland (+6.5) 246 Kansas City (-6.5) 225
Tennessee (+2.5) 42 Indianapolis (-2.5) 176
Washington (+3.5) 205 Dallas (-3.5) 109
Detroit (+1) 216 Chicago (-1) 124
Philadelphia (+3) 103 N.Y. Giants (-3) 327
Minnesota (+3) 231 Green Bay (-3) 392
San Diego (+9) 234 Denver (-9) 115
St. Louis (-3.5) 211 San Francisco (+3.5) 251
Seattle (+6.5) 266 Arizona (-6.5) 168

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 17
By Chris David

The ‘under’ produced a 9-7 record last weekend and that record could’ve been better if it wasn’t for some meaningless scores. For those who had the ‘over’ in the Chicago-Tampa Bay and Houston-Tennessee games, we’re glad to see you received some belated holiday gifts this past Sunday. And for those on the other side of those results, we apologize and hope you keep grinding. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 119-117-4.

Week 17 Approach

Handicapping the final week of the regular season is often a toss-up for both sides and totals.

Week 17 Total Results (2010-2014)
Year Over/Under
2014 6-10
2013 6-10
2012 8-8
2011 9-7
2010 7-9

Based on the above, you can see that the ‘under’ has gone 44-36 (55%) that past five seasons and that includes a 20-12 (63%) mark the last two years. Based on playoff implications, you have five meaningless matchups on tap for Week 17 and it’s fair to say it’s six.

New Orleans at Atlanta
Washington at Dallas
Detroit at Chicago
Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants
St. Louis at San Francisco
Tennessee at Indianapolis (Colts have an outside shot to make the playoffs)

My thinking with these games is that most coaches will just roll the ball out and let the teams go after it offensively.

Last Sunday, we had three meaningless games and the ‘over’ went 3-0 albeit the Bears-Bucs winner was fortunate:
Detroit 32 San Francisco 17 (Over 49)
New Orleans 38 Jacksonville 27 (Over 53)
Chicago 25 Tampa Bay 21 (Over 44)

Based on the numbers for Week 17, I’d probably toss out any leans on the Redskins-Cowboys and Rams-49ers, but the three other games all have two things in common. They have capable quarterbacks and defensive units that are suspect, which is why two of the totals are listed in the fifties.

Divisional Angles

Here is my quick handicap on nine of the 10 other meaningful matchups for Week 17.

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: The Bills dropped the Jets 22-17 in the first meeting and the ‘under’ (41 ½) connected due to miscues by the New York offense. This total opened 44 and has dropped to 41. The Jets defense has played better and faces a short-handed attack for the Bills.

New England at Miami: The ‘under’ is 5-2 the last seven in this series and both clubs enter this game banged up. The Patriots have seen the ‘over’ go 4-1 in their last five but Miami (19.3 PPG) can’t score lately and I don’t expect that to change Sunday.

Tampa Bay at Carolina: The Panthers blasted the Buccaneers 37-23 in Week 4 and the ‘over’ (40 ½) hit easily. This week’s total (47) seems inflated and hard to imagine Carolina pressing the issue once they get the lead against an inconsistent Tampa Bay offense (22.1 PPG).

Baltimore at Cincinnati: The ‘over’ is 3-1 the last four in this series but those results should be overlooked with backup quarterbacks on display this week. Bengals are 2-0 to the ‘under’ with A.J. McCarron under center while the Ravens haven’t are averaging 13.3 PPG their last four.

Jacksonville at Houston: Possible shootout here based on the defensive numbers for the Jaguars (27.9 PPG) and Houston does get Brian Hoyer back at QB. These teams haven’t seen a total this high since 2011 and that also tells me to lean to the high side.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: Prior to last week’s lackluster effort and Baltimore, the Steelers offense was rolling. They should get back on track this weekend versus the Cleveland secondary but can the Browns do enough with Austin Davis? The ‘under’ has cashed in five of the last six encounters between the pair.

Oakland at Kansas City: This series was once a great ‘under’ bet but the ‘over’ has cashed in four straight meetings. The Chiefs quietly own the second best scoring defense (18 PPG) in the league and the Raiders have been surprisingly better defensively on the road (22.9 PPG) than at home (27 PPG).

San Diego at Denver: Low total (41) for this series and hard to lean high based on the ‘under’ results (5-1-1) for Denver at home this season and their style under backup QB Brock Osweiler. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head battles and that includes Denver’s 17-3 win at San Diego in Week 13.

Seattle at Arizona: The Cardinals ripped the Seahawks 39-32 in mid-November and that total closed at 43 ½. This week’s number is 47 and many believe Seattle could lay up in this game knowing that it’s in the playoffs already and will be on the road next weekend regardless of this outcome. Arizona’s defense has only surrendered 12.2 PPG in its last five, which has helped the ‘under’ go 4-1.

Under the Lights

We’ve reached the final primetime game of the regular season as the Vikings and Packers square off for the NFC North division. The ‘under’ has gone 29-21 (58%) in night games this season and both Minnesota (2-1) and Green Bay (3-2) have helped that cause.

This game opened at 48 ½ and has dropped down to 45 ½ as of Saturday morning. In the first meeting between the pair, Green Bay ran past Minnesota 30-13 on the road and the ‘under’ (45) connected.

The Packers were known to be a great ‘over’ bet in recent seasons but the club has watched the ‘under’ go 10-5 this season and that includes a 6-1 mark at Lambeau Field. Minnesota has also leaned to the ‘under’ (10-4-1) this season but as I noted in last week’s piece, the Vikings have put up some crooked numbers on offense under Zimmer towards the end of the season and the ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run entering this game.

The last two games between the pair at Lambeau Field have both went ‘over’ the number and Green Bay has put up 23-plus points in nine straight home meetings against the Vikings.

For those looking for seasonal angles on the last game of the regular season, listed below are the matchups dating back to 2008.

2014 – Pittsburgh 27 vs. Cincinnati 17 (Under 49)
2013 – Philadelphia 24 at Dallas 22 (Under 54 ½)
2012 – Washington 28 vs. Dallas 18 (Under 48)
2011 – N.Y. Giants 31 vs. Dallas 14 (Under 48)
2010 – Seattle 16 vs. St. Louis 6 (Under 42 ½)
2009 – N.Y. Jets 37 vs. Cincinnati 0 (Over 33 ½)
2008 – San Diego 52 vs. Denver 21 (Over 50)

The ‘under’ has cashed in five straight SNF Finales and six of the last seven games that have been flexed to the Sunday Night spot have been decided by double digits.

Only one road team has manage to win this game and the Eagles barely defeated the Tony Romo-less Cowboys.

Fearless Predictions

The holiday weekend cost us $220 and the Bears-Buccaneers loss was tough to stomach plus the Falcons didn’t help the cause -- again. It wasn’t a disaster of a season but certainly not profitable ($1,020) after 16 weeks. Let’s finish strong and head to the playoffs. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy New Year!

Best Over: Jacksonville-Houston 45 ½

Best Under: Baltimore-Cincinnati 41 ½

Best Team Total: Over 29 Steelers

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 44 New Orleans-Atlanta
Under 56 New England-Miami
Under 46 ½ St. Louis-San Francisco

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gridiron Angles - Week 17
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Patriots are 13-0 ATS (15.27 ppg) since Nov 03, 2002 on the road after a loss where they allowed at least 22 first downs.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Bears are 0-12-2 ATS (-9.36 ppg) since Dec 18, 2011 at home after a game with a rushing touchdown.

TOP NFL PLAYER ATS TREND:

-- The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS (11.17 ppg) since Sep 27, 2015 after a game in which Doug Baldwin had at least 5 receptions.

NFL CHOICE TRENDS:

-- The Dolphins are 0-13 ATS (-16.50 ppg) since Jan 03, 2010 off a game as a favorite where they threw for at least 250 yards.

-- The Eagles are 11-0 OU (10.27 ppg) since Sep 29, 2013 after a loss where they allowed more points than expected.

TOP NFL PLAYER OU TREND:

-- Teams are 0-7 OU since October 2011 coming off a home game where Darren Sproles had at least 40 receiving yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Bears are 10-0 OU (9.55 ppg) since Nov 20, 2011 after a win in which they were outgained by their opponent.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Panthers are 0-10 OU (-7.65 ppg) since October 2006 as a home favorite off a game as a favorite where they allowed more points than expected.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- Teams that have thrown at least 3 TD passes in back-to-back games are 149-116-5 OU. Active on Washington and New Orleans.

NFL BIBLE ATS ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Lions are 0-11 ATS on grass when the line is within 3 of pick and they are off a multiple-point win.

NFL BIBLE O/U ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Rams are 0-8 OU when one game under 500 after Week 8.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Essential Week 17 betting notes for NFL Sunday

Looking for some quick-hitting betting info for Week 17 of the NFL slate? We break down all the need-to-know facts and figures for Sunday's NFL matchups.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (+2.5, 42)

* Led by quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is 276 passing yards shy of his first 4,000-yard season, New York knocked off New England 26-20 in overtime a week ago to move to the brink of the playoffs.

* The Bills have the edge in recent head-to-head meetings with the Jets, going 4-0 both straight up and against the spread in the last four.


New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+10, 47)

* New England needs to win or see AFC West champion Denver fall to San Diego in order to clinch the top seed in the conference.

* The AFC East cellar-dwelling Dolphins aren't finishing the season with any semblance of strength, having dropped three in a row and seven of nine SU and six-straight and eight of nine ATS.


New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5, 53)

* The Saints don't necessarily close the season on a high note at the betting window, going just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 17.

* The home team has had a decided edge in this series, going 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between the two rivals. The Falcons are currently tabbed as 5.5-point chalk for the regular season finale.


Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-10, 41.5)

* Baltimore QB Ryan Mallet threw for a career-high 274 yards in his team debut as the Ravens took the Pittsburgh Steelers’ destiny out of their own hands with a 20-17 victory last week.

* Bengals QB AJ McCarron is completing 67 percent of his throws and has recorded four touchdowns and two interceptions in the last three games, but Cincinnati has scored a total of nine points in the second half of the last two contests.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+11, 47)

* Pittsburgh needs to beat the Browns and have the Buffalo Bills knock off the New York Jets in order to earn a wild card spot, and the Steelers are concentrating on their part of that equation. “There's a scenario that hasn't transpired in order to get in the dance,” Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin told reporters. “But the other part of that scenario is us winning," Tomlin said. "I'm not looking for comfort. I'm just trying to meet the challenges of this week. You set yourself up for failure if you view it any other way."

* The Browns have note fared well against teams from within ths division this season, going just 1-4 SU and ATS against the AFC North.


Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6.5, 45.5)

* Jags QB Blake Bortles can set a club record Sunday as he needs 179 passing yards to eclipse Mark Brunell's single-season mark of 4,367, which he totaled in 1996. He has thrown at least two TD passes in nine of his last 11 games and is one of three quarterbacks in league history (Dan Marino and Matthew Stafford) to record 35 scoring tosses in a season while under the age of 24.

* The Texans have won eight of their last 10 meetings with the Jaguars but are just 5-4-1 ATS in those 10.


Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (Off, Off)

* Zach Mettenberger, who was 24-for-51 for 234 yards in last week's blowout loss to Houston, will most likely get the start again at quarterback for Tennessee, which has just one win since Nov. 8. Mettenberger, however, will be without his top target, Kendall Wright, who re-injured his MCL in last week's loss.

* Indianapolis has to win and needs victories by Jacksonville, Buffalo, Miami, Baltimore, Atlanta, Oakland, Denver and Pittsburgh to earn a playoff berth.


Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (PK, 45.5)

* A horrific start brought Jim Caldwell's job security into question, but the Lions have won two in a row and five of seven to put themselves in position to escape the NFC North cellar should they record a sixth straight victory versus their division rivals.

* Home hasn't provided much comfort for Bears backers. In their previous 29 home games, the Bears have gone just 7-21-1 ATS.


Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-4, 39.5)

* Despite having nothing on the line, Redskins coach Jay Gruden on Thursday said quarterback Kirk Cousins will get the start against the Cowboys. "All our guys are starting," Gruden said. "How I substitute throughout the course of the game will be dependent on how we're doing health-wise and the situation of the game."

* One of the few bright spots for the Cowboys has been the play of running back Darren McFadden, who has rushed for 100 yards in five of his last 10 starts and is three yards from reaching 1,000. Dallas ranks fifth in the league against the pass, yielding an average of 223 yards.


Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3.5, 51)

* Sam Bradford is finishing the season on a high note, following up his 361-yard, two-touchdown performance versus Arizona with 380 yards and a score against the Redskins.

* Team co-owners John Mara and Steve Tisch have not publicly commented on the job security of Tom Coughlin, while the 69-year-old coach himself dismissed that line of questioning Thursday in an effort to focus on the regular-season finale. "I won't let myself go in those other directions because we have a job to do, and that's what we're going to do," Coughlin told reporters. "All these other issues will clear up in time, but not before then."


St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+3, 37)

* Hardly considered flashy, Case Keenum's efficient passing ways have enabled Jeff Fisher to move on from offseason acquisition Nick Foles and hand the keys to the 27-year-old. "We're having fun," said Keenum, who has completed just 14 passes in each contest of the team's winning streak - including last week's 23-17 victory over Seattle. "We're playing football. We've got nothing to lose. ... I think that's the mindset our guys have got."

* Missouri native Blaine Gabbert isn't placing any extra emphasis on facing the team he watched with his family as season ticket holders. "No, not at all," the 26-year-old Gabbert told reporters. "It's another division game. It’s a big game for both sides regardless of the situation that we put ourselves in up to this point."


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-10.5, 46)

* It’s been far from a lost season for Tampa Bay, thanks to an encouraging rookie season by top pick Jameis Winston (3,717 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 13 interceptions) and a bounce-back campaign from Doug Martin (1,354 rushing yards, six TDs). The Buccaneers have had a tough time turning drives into points, though, and have committed five turnovers in their last two games and 24 this season – including a season-high five in a 37-23 loss to Carolina in Week 4.

* The Carolina Panthers no longer are playing to preserve a perfect season, but they still have plenty on the line. The Panthers can clinch the NFC’s top seed and home-field advantage through the conference championship game with a win Sunday.


Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5, 47)

* The Seahawks, who had a five-game winning streak snapped by the St. Louis Rams last week, have locked up a playoff berth and will be on the road for the first round of the postseason.

* The Cardinals have ripped off nine consecutive victories to set a franchise record for wins and already have wrapped up the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye.


San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-10, 41.5)

* Following its bye in Week 10, San Diego was limited to a field goal in three of its next four games and can match the franchise's worst record since a 4-12 mark in 2003. Philip Rivers has managed to put up some big numbers amid the carnage and can eclipse the franchise single-season record of 4,802 yards (Dan Fouts, 1981) by throwing for 239 yards Sunday, but he was limited to 202 in the earlier meeting with the Broncos.

* Denver needs a win and a loss by New England at Miami to snag the top overall seed in the conference, but it also can lose the AFC West title with a loss and a victory by Kansas City.


Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 43.5)

* The Raiders attempt to finish with a winning record on the road, where they have won two straight to improve to 4-3. The Raiders have gone 5-2 ATS away from home.

* Kansas City is the first team in 45 years to qualify for the postseason after beginning with a 1-5 record have won four of its last five meetings with the Raiders, including a 34-20 victory at Oakland in Week 13.


Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3, 45.5)

* While both teams have already secured berths in the postseason, the ramifications will be huge: The winner will host a wild card team in the first round of the playoffs while the loser will hit the road as either the fifth or sixth seed.

* Aaron Rodgers has won 10 of his last 11 versus the Vikings, throwing for 28 touchdowns and three interceptions.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 17 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Jets (-3, 41 ½) at Bills – 1:00 PM EST

One year ago, Rex Ryan led the Jets to a 4-12 record and last place in the AFC East. Ryan was let go and one season later, New York is one victory away from clinching its first playoff berth since 2010. The former Jets’ coach crossed over inside the division to patrol the Bills’ sideline in 2015, as Buffalo looks to play the role of spoiler. The Bills (7-8 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) go for back-to-back wins for just the second time this season after holding off the Cowboys last Sunday, 16-6 as 6 ½-point favorites. Buffalo knocked off New York in its first meeting at Met Life Stadium, 22-17, as the Bills built a 22-3 lead prior to a pair of Jets’ second half touchdowns.

Following a 5-5 start to the season, New York (10-5 SU, 8-5-2 ATS) has run off five straight victories, capped off by a 26-20 overtime triumph over New England last Sunday. The Jets have stepped up defensively during this winning streak, allowing 20 points or less in each of these victories, while cashing the ‘under’ in each of their past two road games. New York has lost the previous two visits to Ralph Wilson Stadium, as the Jets were blown out by the Bills in Detroit last November with the game moved out of Buffalo due to poor weather.

Jaguars at Texans (-6 ½, 45 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

The AFC South race has been a fight to the finish, but Houston (8-7 SU, 8-7 ATS) controls its own destiny heading into Week 17. The Texans attempt to sweep the Jaguars after winning at Jacksonville in mid-October, 31-20 as 2 ½-point underdogs. Quarterback Brian Hoyer made his first start of the season for Houston in that win, throwing for 293 yards and three touchdowns. Hoyer returns to the starting lineup after missing the last two games with a concussion, as Houston picked up a pair of road divisional victories at Indianapolis and Tennessee.

For the fifth consecutive season, Jacksonville (5-10 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) has lost at least 10 games, coming off a 38-27 at New Orleans. The game wasn’t as close as the final score indicated as the Jaguars fell behind, 24-6 at halftime to suffer their sixth road loss in seven tries. Jacksonville has drilled the ‘over’ in four of the previous five contests, while hitting the ‘over’ in five of seven games away from Everbank Field. Gus Bradley’s team has lost six consecutive road games against AFC South foes with the last away divisional victory coming at Houston in 2013.

Steelers (-11, 47) at Browns – 1:00 PM EST

Pittsburgh (9-6 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) had the inside track at a Wild Card berth heading into Week 16 at lowly Baltimore. However, the banged-up Ravens stunned the Steelers as 11-point home underdogs, 20-17, limiting Pittsburgh to its lowest point total since a Week 8 home loss to Cincinnati (16-10). Pittsburgh’s four-game ‘over’ streak came to an end in Week 16, as Mike Tomlin’s team looks to bust out of a 1-3 SU/ATS road slump dating back to October. The Steelers routed the Browns in their first meeting at Heinz Field by a 30-9 count in November, as Ben Roethlisberger threw three touchdown passes off the bench.

The Browns (3-12 SU, 6-9 ATS) are tied with the Titans for the worst record in football, as a Cleveland loss coupled with a Tennessee victory will give the Browns the top pick in May’s NFL Draft. Former first round pick Johnny Manziel won’t play in the season finale as he is sidelined with a concussion, opening the door for Austin Davis to start at quarterback. Mike Pettine’s squad has won just twice at home this season, beating Tennessee and San Francisco, while allowing 70 points in two divisional home losses to Baltimore and Cincinnati.

Raiders at Chiefs (-7, 43 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

The best turnaround story in the NFL this season comes out of Kansas City (10-5 SU, 8-7 ATS) as the Chiefs go for their 10th straight win following a 1-5 start. Andy Reid’s club has allowed 14 points or less seven times in this span, but the Chiefs have failed in their last two home wins over the Browns and Chargers as a double-digit favorite. Kansas City has dominated in the role of a single-digit favorite, cashing in seven of eight opportunities, including in a 34-20 triumph at Oakland last month as three-point chalk.

The Raiders (7-8 SU, 7-8 ATS) have made plenty of strides in Jack Del Rio’s first season as head coach by winning four games away from the Black Hole. Oakland has alternated wins and losses in each of the past six contests, coming off a 23-20 overtime victory over San Diego on Christmas Eve, but failed to cash as four-point favorites. The Raiders own a solid 4-1 ATS record in its past five road contests, while looking to finish off a three-game road sweep inside the division after winning at San Diego and Denver this season.

Seahawks at Cardinals (-6, 47) – 4:25 PM EST

The top two teams in the NFC West are heading to the playoffs, as this matchup only has seeding ramifications. Arizona (13-2 SU, 9-6 ATS) has an outside chance of grabbing home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs, needing a victory along with a Carolina loss to Tampa Bay. The Cardinals topped the 31-point mark for the ninth time this season in last Sunday’s 38-8 rout of the Packers as six-point favorites. Bruce Arians’ squad covered at home for the first time since Week 3 against San Francisco, while the Cardinals have gone ‘under’ the total in three of the past four games at University of Phoenix Stadium.

The two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks (9-6 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) could end up finishing with the sixth seed if they lose at Arizona. Seattle won both meetings last season with Arizona, but the Cardinals knocked off the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field in mid-November, 39-32 as three-point underdogs. Pete Carroll’s team had its five-game winning streak snapped in last Sunday’s 23-17 home loss to the Rams as 11 ½-point favorites. The Seahawks have won four consecutive away games, while limiting each opponent to 12 points or less.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SNF - Vikings at Packers
By Tony Mejia

One last bit of drama awaits when all but one regular-season game will be left come Sunday night.

Green Bay and Minnesota will play to decide the NFC North winner and No. 3 seed in the conference’s playoff picture. There’s a chance they’ll be meeting once again on Wild Card weekend, but there’s no way these teams are going to go vanilla in order to save plays for an elimination game. This contest, beyond the lure of a divisional title, represents the difference between opening the playoffs at home or on the road.

The Packers have been installed as a 3-point favorite at Lambeau Field, a number that hasn’t budged all week. The total has been set at 45.5.

The fact the Vikings find themselves with a chance to clinch the division has to be considered a major sign of process considering where they are in their development. Both head coach Mike Zimmer and QB Teddy Bridgewater are in their second seasons, while Adrian Peterson returned from a year-long suspension and finds himself in position to lead the NFL in rushing for the first time since 2012 and third time in his career.

Meanwhile, for Green Bay, the indignity of having to play for first place illustrates how far it has fallen since a season that started 6-0 began to turn sour. Since Nov. 1, the Packers are a sub-.500 team (4-5) and come off a 38-8 setback in Arizona where they looked completely out-classed. The loss snapped a three-game winning streak, but those wins came against teams with losing records and the run began on that memorable Thursday night Hail Mary at Detroit.

The Packers have beaten a single team with a winning record since Sept. 28, handling the Vikings 30-13 on Nov. 22 in a game which closed as a pick’em. It’s been the most impressive they’ve been in months, because the offense has sputtered for lengthy stretches of games and the defense has been prone to breakdowns.

They weren’t immune to them in that win either, surrendering a 47-yard touchdown to Kyle Rudolph in falling behind 6-3, but the defense buckled down, registering six sacks after failing to record even a single one in their three previous games. They also slowed down Peterson considerably, holding him to 45 yards on 13 carries. It currently stands as Peterson’s third-lowest output of the season, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Zimmer and the offense commit to the run early to ensure they get him going.

Green Bay committed to the run and its defense on the road in the Week 11 win, getting a season-high 124 yards on 24 carries, the most work the team has given him in what’s otherwise been a fairly disappointing campaign.

“We were efficient with our play style and our execution,” head coach Mike McCarthy remembered of that game this week. “We ran the ball the way it's supposed to be run. We didn't make a lot of mistakes in the game. That's the style of play and level of execution that we're going to need this week.”

Lacy has often been in McCarthy’s doghouse due to work ethic issues in practice and reported concern with his conditioning. He’s usually at his best against the Vikings, owning four career 100-yard games against them. His work is likely going to be made easier by the expected absence of run-stuffing DT Linval Joseph, who has been unable to practice this week due to a nagging foot injury. Sharrif Floyd has been filling in during his absence and has played well, but he’s been nursing a knee ailment.

The Vikings do have star safety Harrison Smith back from a hamstring injury that limited him for most of December, but he returned with a pick-six of Eli Manning in last week’s 49-17 rout of the Giants, joining electric LB Anthony Barr back in the lineup after extended absences. Although Peterson sat out a few practices, all but Joseph are considered ‘probable’ for this Sunday night game, which means this is the healthiest Minnesota has been in over a month.

Green Bay’s health issues along its offensive line have been a major detriment all season and continue into Week 17. Bryan Bulaga’s chronic ankle issues have kept him out of practice but aren’t expected to keep him out of this one, but the situation isn’t as promising for David Bakhtiari, who missed last week with an ankle injury. He’s questionable. T.J. Lang and Josh Sitton, who have had injury issues most of the way, are healthy and trending upward.

Hard to believe we’ve gotten towards the end of a preview to mention Aaron Rodgers, but his performances of late have been fairly ordinary. He completed a season-low 47 percent of his passes in this season’s win in Minneapolis, so he’ll be facing scheme and personnel that have had success against him in spite of the game’s final result. Rodgers got the better of the Vikes in last year’s meetings by throwing five touchdowns without a pick, completing over two-thirds of his throws. He’s beaten Minnesota in 10-of-11 meetings since 2010 including playoffs, so it will be interesting to see whether his dominance of a division rival can continue without a receiving corps he can truly trust and an offensive line that hasn’t been protecting like it used to.

Rodgers started off brilliantly, throwing 12 touchdown passes before his first interception, but he’s been picked off in four of five straight entering this season finale. His 6.7 yards per pass is a career low, while his 235.3 yards per game represents his lowest production since first becoming a starter in 2008. He looked ordinary against Arizona, throwing for 151 yards on just 15 completions. Statistically, he had just one poorer performance, back in a 29-10 loss to Denver.

Counterpart Teddy Bridgewater was harassed constantly last time he saw the Packers defense, but managed to throw for 296 yards as he tried to rally the Vikings in vain. That figure is his second-highest of the season. Over the past three games, he’s been dominant, responding to criticism that he was a liability by throwing for 734 yards, six touchdowns and no picks to rack up a 123.2 passer rating.

He’ll be facing a Green Bay secondary that will get Sam Shields back from a concussion. The defense has held up well at Lambeau, surrendering more than 20 points only once and holding teams to an average of just over 14 points over the past five home games.

The total of 45.5 is similar to the 45 oddsmakers placed on the Week 11 meeting which fell ‘under’ the posted total. The ‘over’ had hit in three of four games prior to this season. Weather is usually a factor if you’re playing in Green Bay in January, so be aware that it’s expected to be clear of snow but extremely cold, with temperatures in the low 20s.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Football Predictions: Week 17 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

Final week of the NFL regular season. Wow. Really does feel like that Steelers-Patriots Thursday night season opener was about two days ago. I will be previewing most of the opening-round playoff games, so this will be my final Opening Line Report story of the season.

Because of some upsets in Week 16, we might not see the top teams resting guys like they would have liked to this Sunday. Unbeaten Carolina was stunned at Atlanta and thus wasn't able to wrap the top seed in the NFC. Arizona would steal that with a win at home over Seattle and a Carolina loss at home vs. Tampa Bay in Week 17. The Cardinals will know whether their game matters at kickoff as they play at 4:25 p.m. ET and the Panthers at 1 p.m. ET. I'd bet big on Seattle right now (+4) because I'm assuming the Panthers win (-10.5). If they do, I'd be shocked if Carson Palmer takes the field for the Cards. The NFC field is set, however. The only other drama left is the NFC North title.

New England's loss at the Jets means the Patriots will have to care about their Week 17 game in Miami. Either the Bengals or Broncos, who played Monday night, could steal the AFC's top seed with two wins and another New England loss. The AFC field remains totally wide open with only the Patriots, Bengals and Chiefs having clinched playoff spots entering Monday's game.

Here are some Week 17 games and opening lines that caught my eye. I expect to preview Jets-Bills, Steelers-Browns and Vikings-Packers, so I won't touch on those here. No Thursday or Monday games this week.

Raiders at Chiefs (-6.5, 43): Kansas City beat Cleveland 17-13 on Sunday to clinch a playoff berth. It was the Chiefs' ninth straight win as they joined the 1986 New York Jets as the only teams in NFL history with a nine-game winning streak and a five-game losing streak in the same season. Those K.C. victories have been by an average of 16 points, with just two coming by seven points or fewer. Since the start of Week 5, the Kansas City defense has allowed a total of just 145 points, an average of 13.2 points over 11 games. No other team is within even three points of that. Kansas City would clinch the AFC West with one victory and one Denver loss in its final two games. The NFL smartly moved kickoff for this one to 4:25 p.m. ET so it's opposite the Chargers-Broncos game. Kansas City won in Oakland 34-20 in Week 13. That's the second-most points the Chiefs have allowed during the winning streak. They were down 20-14 entering the fourth and finished with only 232 yards. Kansas City did pick off Derek Carr three times. Key trend: Kansas City is 3-7 ATS in past 10 as home favorite in series. The pick: Chiefs.

Eagles at Giants (-3.5, 52): Both teams are eliminated from the playoffs. Odell Beckham Jr. will return from his one-game suspension for New York. It surely wouldn't have mattered if he was in there Sunday as New York was blasted 49-17 at Minnesota. But you could see that coming after the Giants were officially eliminated from the postseason on Saturday night. It's New York's fourth straight year sitting out the playoffs, so I'd almost guarantee this is Tom Coughlin's final game as the team's head coach. Might this be the final game for Chip Kelly as Eagles' coach? I rather doubt it because there are no top college jobs open right now, although there's usually a surprise or two at that level after the bowl season. And there's always the chance the Eagles trade Kelly somewhere like to the Tennessee Titans. The team has clearly regressed under him this season. Might also be the finale for Philly QB Sam Bradford as he can become a free agent after the season. Not clear if his future is in the City of Brotherly Love. Think of how good Robert Griffin III might be in a Kelly offense. The Eagles beat the visiting Giants 27-7 on a Monday night in Week 6. The Eagles had three takeaways, sacked Eli Manning three times and forced two intentional-grounding penalties. Key trend: New York is 4-6 ATS in past 10 as home favorite in series. The pick: Giants.

Saints at Falcons (-4, 52): Atlanta was eliminated from the playoffs despite Sunday's upset of Carolina. So now really the only thing to watch here is how many times Matt Ryan targets Julio Jones. My guess is a lot. Jones has 127 catches for 1,722 yards. So with a huge day he could set the NFL single-season receptions and yardage record. The record for catches is 143 by the Colts' Marvin Harrison in 2002. The yardage mark is 1,964 by Detroit's Calvin Johnson in 2012. Atlanta lost in New Orleans on a Thursday in Week 6, 31-21. Jones had six catches for 93 yards. Could this be the finale for Drew Brees and Coach Sean Payton with the Saints? I'd say the latter is likely. Brees is going to have to take pay cut to stay in the Big Easy, though. Brees, who turns 37 next month, will be in the final year of a contract with a $30 million hit against the salary cap, the most of any player in the league as of now. Key trend: Atlanta 6-4 ATS in past 10 as home favorite in series. The pick: Falcons.

Redskins at Cowboys (-3, TBA): This total is TBA because it's not clear if Washington will play many starters. There's no reason for Coach Jay Gruden to do so. The Skins won the NFC East with Saturday's victory in Philadelphia, and they can't improve their playoff seeding no matter what happens here. They will be the No. 4 seed and host Minnesota, Green Bay or Seattle in the wild-card round. Losing would benefit Dallas as it could get as high as the No. 2 overall pick in the 2016 draft should it do so. I guarantee the Skins won't play Robert Griffin III here because if he gets hurt, his salary is guaranteed for next year. This will be his final regular-season game in a Washington uniform. Dallas won at the Redskins 19-16 in Week 13 on a Monday night. Dan Bailey hit a 54-yard field goal with nine seconds left to cap a wild final two minutes or so. Key trend: Dallas 2-8 ATS in past 10 as home favorite in series. The pick: Tough to call this one as it's essentially the Tanking Bowl. Guess I'll go with Colt McCoy (likely Washington starter or at least plays a lot) over Kellen Moore.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills Predictions
by Alan Matthews

I'm not surprised that Sunday's regular-season finale between the Jets and Bills has playoff ramifications. It's just that I expected Buffalo to be a wild-card contender and the Jets likely to finish in the AFC East cellar.

The Bills (7-8) won't finish last in the division as that will go to Miami, but it's certainly been a disappointing season under first-year coach Rex Ryan. Buffalo's struggles actually bode well for the head coaching opportunities for Doug Marrone. The Bills were 9-7 under him last year, but he took an opt-out clause in his contract and now is an assistant with Jacksonville. Buffalo was a better team under him than it has been under Ryan, so don't be surprised to see Marrone get another head-coaching gig this offseason. He could be a fit with New Orleans if the Saints part with Sean Payton. Marrone and Saints GM Mickey Loomis are tight. Anyway, I digress.

So while this game means little to Buffalo other than the chance to finish without a losing record and sweep Ryan's former team, it's everything for New York (10-5). The Jets will be a wild-card team with a win. A victory and Chiefs loss would be the best scenario for New York as it would then travel to a mediocre Houston team next week. The Jets would still get in with a tie no matter what and also with a loss as long Pittsburgh loses at home to Cleveland, which I can't see happening.

Jets at Bills Betting Story Lines

It's not impossible that this could be Ryan's final game as Buffalo's head coach even though he got a five-year, $27.5 million contract last offseason. I doubt he's a goner, but then I doubted the Eagles would fire Chip Kelly. Ryan once again was spouting preseason nonsense about the playoffs and it bit him in the rear. Again. At least he seems to have learned.

"The thing that kind of gives this team a black eye when we're looking at it is that I let my mouth get ahead of everything," Ryan said this week. "And I think if I would have come in there and just said, 'Hey, we're gonna compete,' and do all that stuff, maybe we wouldn't have such a bad feeling about this team."

Ryan is supposed to be defensive guru, but that unit has hugely regressed from last year when it was led by departed coordinator Jim Schwartz (who also might now get another head coaching job thanks to Ryan). Ryan inherited a defense that finished fourth in points allowed and fourth in yards allowed. This year, those rankings have dropped to 16th and 20th, respectively. There have been reports in Buffalo that some players, including star defensive end Mario Williams, are at odds with Ryan's defensive scheme. Williams won't be back next year. Also some talk that Ryan and GM Doug Whaley aren't on the same page.

Buffalo will be without top running back LeSean McCoy and tight end Charles Clay this week due to injury. Clay signed a huge free-agent deal and hasn't really lived up to it. McCoy, acquired in that trade with Philly, also has largely disappointed (895 yards, three TDs) and been injury-prone. Neither played in last week's 16-6 home win over Dallas.

The Jets have no coaching issues or internal strife. Todd Bowles has done a fantastic job in his first season, and two of the best trades of last offseason were by new Jets GM Mike Maccagnan. He sent a late-round draft pick to Houston for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. He's having a fine season, completing 60.8 percent for 3,724 yards, 29 touchdowns (career high) and 12 picks. Last Sunday, for the third time in the past four games, Fitzpatrick led a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter or overtime. He closed an upset of the Patriots on a 6-yard touchdown pass to Eric Decker on the first possession of OT -- Pats coach Bill Belichick oddly decided to kick off after winning the coin toss. The Jets have won five straight, and Fitzpatrick has 13 touchdown passes and only one interception over that span.

Fitzpatrick has never been in the playoffs. Neither has Jets receiver Brandon Marshall. He was also acquired this offseason for a late-round pick (from Chicago) and has 101 catches for 1,376 yards and 13 touchdowns. The 101 catches are a franchise record, and he's the first player in NFL history with six 100-catch seasons.

Buffalo won at the Jets on a Thursday in Week 10, 22-17. Ryan's defense played one of its best games as it picked off two passes, recovered a fumble that was returned for a touchdown, and stopped the Jets inside the Bills' 10 in the final minutes. The Bills did nearly blow a 22-3 third-quarter lead. Tyrod Taylor was 17-for-27 for 158 yards with a TD, and McCoy rushed for 112 yards on 19 carries. Fitzpatrick wasn't good, completing just 15-for-34 for 193 yards, two TDs and two picks. Marshall did have one of those TD grabs but only three catches for 23 yards.

Jets at Bills Betting Odds and Trends

New York is a 3-point favorite (-110) with a total of 43. On the moneyline, the Jets are -160 and Bills +140. On the alternate lines, the Jets are -3.5 (+115), -2.5 (-135) and -2 (-140). The Jets are 8-5-2 against the spread this season (3-2-2 on road) and 8-7 "over/under" (3-4 on road). The Bills are 7-7-1 ATS (4-3 at home) and 8-7 O/U (4-3 at home).

The Jets have covered six of their past eight vs. the AFC East. They are 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight road games vs. teams with a losing home record. The Bills have covered six of their past nine vs. teams with a winning record. Buffalo is 1-5-1 ATS in its past seven following an ATS win. The under is 4-1 in the Jets' past five after a win. Ditto for Buffalo. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven. The under has hit in five of the past eight in Buffalo.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Jets at Bills Betting Predictions

This will feel like a playoff game. It essentially is for the Jets, and they remember Ryan's reaction after the Bills won in the Meadowlands in Week 10. The Jets players also recall how Ryan sent out former Jet/Geno Smith jawbreaker IK Enemkpali as a game captain (probably will again). That said, the Bills players largely love Ryan and would enjoy nothing more than keeping the Jets out of the playoffs. Buffalo has won the past four meetings. But I'll give the 2.5 points here and go under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Odds and Betting Week 17: Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews

It's my final late-week NFL update story of the 2015 season as Doc's will have you covered with in-depth playoff game previews the rest of the way.

By my count, the only games that don't matter on Sunday from a playoff perspective are: Saints-Falcons, Redskins-Cowboys, Eagles-Giants, Lions-Bears and Rams-49ers. That's not to say they aren't important. You have draft position involved in those, for one thing. The loser of the Eagles-Giants game also will finish third in the NFC East and thus be forced to play the Rams in London next year.

Philly made big news this week with the firing of Coach Chip Kelly. Pretty rare you see a coach dumped with one game left in the season. Sportsbooks have a prop on where Kelly will be coaching Week 1 of next season. He has said he wants to stay in the NFL and no longer wants personnel control. They list the Tennessee Titans as the even-money favorites for Kelly's services for 2016. And that obviously makes sense with Kelly's connection to Marcus Mariota. I'm sure if Mariota wants Kelly, he'll be there. The other NFL options are the Browns (+500) and Colts (+700). Any NCAA team is +200 and not a coach is +700. I don't think those two are in play.

The sites also offered an "over/under" on coaches fired between the end of the season and the Super Bowl, with the total at five. There are already reports the Colts will not bring Chuck Pagano back, but that's not really a firing as he doesn't have a contract for next season. The Dolphins and Titans for sure will have new coaches as they are currently led by interim guys. The Browns might fire Mike Pettine. Ditto the Chargers Mike McCoy. Pretty sure the Giants will pay Tom Coughlin to go away. The Lions' decision on Jim Caldwell depends on the new GM. The Rams say they are keeping Jeff Fisher for some reason. The 49ers probably give Jim Tomsula one more year unless Mike Holmgren really does want to coach there. Or Kelly. The Saints won't fire Sean Payton but could trade him to Miami or Indy. Should be an interesting "Black Monday."

Here are some line moves or potential game-changing injury notes for Week 17.

Ravens at Bengals (-10, 41.5): Cincinnati opened at -7.5. Presumably it jumped with the news that Bengals quarterback A.J. McCarron will be able to play after hurting his wrist on the final play of Monday night's loss in Denver. Early in the week, that wasn't clear and Keith Wenning making his first career start was a possibility. McCarron actually has been pretty decent, to the point that it has raised the stature of offensive coordinator Hue Jackson so much that he's likely to get an NFL head coaching job this offseason. Cincinnati still has something to play for here as with a win and Broncos loss later Sunday in San Diego, the Bengals would be the AFC's No. 2 seed. Otherwise they host the No. 6 seed next week and probably without Andy Dalton. Cincinnati will get back star tight end Tyler Eifert from injury Sunday. The Ravens would be better off by losing and improving their draft stock. They will be back as a Super Bowl contender next season. Baltimore has put a franchise-record 20 players on injured reserve this season. Key trend: Cincinnati is 3-6-1 ATS in past 10 as a home double-digit favorite. The pick: This is one of those where I'd go find either 10.5 or 9.5 points depending on whom you want to back. I'd give 9.5 points but take 10.5.

Titans at Colts (-6, 41.5): Colts owner Bob Irsay has disputed a report that Pagano's fate has already been sealed, but it has. He and GM Ryan Grigson basically hate each other. Pagano essentially canned himself when he turned down a one-year extension from Irsay heading into this season. He'll have no trouble finding another job. The Colts actually can still win the AFC South, but you also can still win the Lotto. Basically, Indy has to win, have Houston lose to Jacksonville and then have seven other games go the Colts' way. Not happening. Pagano has no clue who his QB will be Sunday yet. It's one of three guys: recently-signed Josh Freeman and Ryan Lindley as well as undrafted free-agent Stephen Morris. Never seen a potential playoff team in that type of situation before. Freeman last played in something called the Fall Experimental Football League for the Brooklyn Bolts. Tennessee, again without Marcus Mariota, should tank here as it gets the No. 1 overall pick with a loss. Makes it quite a challenge to handicap this one. Key trend: Indianapolis 7-3 ATS in past 10 as home favorite in series. The pick: Colts I guess.

Seahawks at Cardinals (-6.5, 47): This line has jumped from an open of 3.5. Both head coaches say they will play all their healthy starters as usual. For Bruce Arians, that makes sense because Arizona is guaranteed to have next week off and takes the NFC's top seed with a win and Carolina upset loss at home to Tampa Bay (doubtful). Plus, the Cardinals have a ton of momentum right now on a nine-game winning streak and Carson Palmer still has an outside shot at the NFL MVP Award as well as leading the NFL in passing yards and TD passes. Palmer is +500 to win the MVP at Bovada with Cam Newton at -1000. Palmer has thrown for 4,542 yards and 34 TDs. He is +700 to win the TD crown. Tom Brady leads both with 4,636 yards and 36 TDs. Brady is -200 to win the TD title. The Cardinals are the only team in the league to have more touchdowns (57) than punts (55) this season. I'm not sure why Pete Carroll would play all his guys. Seattle is a wild-card team no matter what and thus has to play next week. The Hawks could be without injured offensive linemen Russell Okung (left tackle) and J.R. Sweezy (right guard). Running back Marshawn Lynch also isn't ready to return yet. Key trend: Arizona 5-3 ATS as a favorite vs. Seattle (not since 2012). The pick: Cardinals.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns Odds
by Alan Matthews

The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) would be a team that no one would want to face in the postseason with that dynamic offense led by Ben Roethlisberger. But because of a head-scratching loss in Week 16, the Steelers might not even make the postseason field. It's quite simple for them on Sunday: beat Cleveland and pray that the Buffalo Bills upset the visiting New York Jets. Both games do kickoff at 1 p.m.

The thing is, if Pittsburgh gets in I do believe it can win the AFC. The Patriots are totally banged up. The Broncos likely will be starting their backup quarterback. Ditto the Bengals. In fact, if the Steelers do get in they probably will play at Cincinnati next week. I'm assuming Cincinnati will be the No. 3 seed because I don't see Denver losing at home to San Diego on Sunday. I might favor the Steelers over the Bengals on wild-card weekend because reports are that Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton will not be ready to return then.

As for Cleveland (3-12)? Yet another losing season and probably more turnover in the front office and coaching staff are coming. The Browns frankly will want to lose here as they are guaranteed no worse than the No. 2 overall pick if they do. Cleveland would pick No. 1 with a loss here and if Tennessee wins at Indianapolis. The Titans doing so isn't out of the question because the Colts likely will have to use Josh Freeman, Ryan Lindley or Stephen Morris as their starting QB with so many injuries at that position.

Steelers at Browns Betting Story Lines

Let's start with the big injury news here and that's whether Johnny Manziel will start at quarterback for Cleveland in what could be his final game with the franchise. He is in the NFL's concussion protocol, which means it's expected Manziel will sit. More often than not these days, guys are missing at least one game with a concussion. Austin Davis, who lost to the Bengals in his lone start of the season Dec. 6, will start here. It marks the fourth straight season the No. 3 quarterback has closed out the year for the Browns. Should Davis get hurt, that means Terrelle Pryor likely goes under center even though he's a receiver these days.

I do think Manziel will be back next season barring another off-field incident. Early reports were that Coach Mike Pettine also would return, although I find that hard to believe. Expect the Browns to go hard after Chip Kelly as they did a few years ago before he chose the Eagles. Manziel would appear to be a great fit in Kelly's offense; Kelly heavily recruited Manziel at Oregon and nearly got him. General Manager Ray Farmer won't be back, so that's why I find it hard to believe Pettine might be since new GMs generally want to hire their own guys.

There's no logical explanation for Pittsburgh losing at injury-ravaged and terrible Baltimore 20-17 last week to end a three-game winning streak. Perhaps the Steelers were looking past their rivals. Roethlisberger wasn't good at all, throwing for only 220 yards and two picks. He was totally outplayed by Ryan Mallett, which is something I never thought I'd write. The lone bright spot was DeAngelo Williams rushing for 100 yards and two scores.

But here's good news for this one: The Browns have finished their season by playing the Steelers in five of the last seven seasons: 2013, '12, '11, '10 and '08. Pittsburgh won them all by a combined score of 129-35. In two of those games the Browns started third-string quarterbacks as they will here (Jason Campbell in '13, Thad Lewis in '12). Also, bad news for Pettine: The last four Browns coaches who have been fired all lost their jobs after season-ending losses to Pittsburgh.

In Week 10 in Pittsburgh, the Steelers were 7-point favorites and rolled the Browns 30-9. Roethlisberger wasn't supposed to play that day with a foot injury, but when Landry Jones went down early with a leg injury of his own, Big Ben came off the bench and threw for 379 yards (most ever by a QB who didn't start a game) and three touchdowns. Antonio Brown had 10 catches for 139 yards and two scores and Martavis Bryant six for 178 and a score. Roethlisberger, an Ohio native, loves beating the Browns because they passed up on him in the 2004 draft. Manziel played fairly well, completing 33-for-45 for 372 yards, a TD and a pick. He was sacked six times. The Browns rushed for only 15 yards on 14 carries.

The Steelers' Brown will need a huge game to repeat as the NFL champion in catches and receiving yardage. He's No. 2 in both with 123 grabs for 1,647 yards. Atlanta's Julio Jones has 127 for 1,722. Jones figures to have a big day against a lousy Saints defense on Sunday.

Steelers at Browns Betting Odds and Trends

Pittsburgh is an 10.5-point favorite (+105) with a total of 47. On the moneyline, the Steelers are -525 and the Browns +415. On the alternate lines, Pittsburgh is -11 (-102), -10.5 (-110) and -10 (-120). The Steelers are 8-6-1 against the spread this season (4-3 on road) and 6-9 "over/under" (2-5 on road). The Browns are 6-9 ATS (3-4 at home) and 8-7 O/U (5-2 at home).

The Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their past seven Week 17 games. They are 8-3 ATS in their past 11 following a loss. Cleveland is 2-6 ATS in its past eight after a loss. The Browns are 1-5 ATS in their past six vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Pittsburgh's past five vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Browns' past four. The under is 5-1 in the past six meetings. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the past eight.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Steelers at Browns Betting Predictions

I almost never recommend giving that many points to a home team. But I would think the Steelers will be dialed in here. Your one worry might be that the Jets lead the Bills by a ton at halftime and then Pittsburgh goes through the motions in the second half because it knows the playoffs are out. But I don't see the Jets doing that. To be safe, I'll give the 10. I can't see Davis leading the Browns to many points, so go under. The Browns managed a scant three points and 273 total yards of offense in Davis' only other start. The weather will be cold but nothing too bad.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers Odds
by Alan Matthews

Playing a winner-take-all NFC North game at is old hat for the Green Bay Packers at this point. They look for a fifth straight division title when hosting the Minnesota Vikings in the lone prime-time game of Week 17 on Sunday Night Football. The Vikings haven't won the North since 2009.

Both teams are 10-5 and in the playoffs no matter what happens Sunday. The winner is the No. 3 seed and will host a game on wild-card weekend. Should Minnesota pull the upset, it would host No. 6 seed Seattle next week. If the Vikings lose and Seattle wins at Arizona earlier in the day, then Minnesota might as well stay in Green Bay because there would be a rematch at Lambeau next week.

Does that Week 17 wild-card rematch scenario sound familiar? In 2012, the last time the Vikings made the postseason, they beat the visiting Packers 37-34 to clinch a wild-card spot on the final Sunday. The next week, Minnesota went to Lambeau and lost 24-10. The Vikings had to start Joe Webb at QB that game because of an injury to starter Christian Ponder from Week 17.

If Minnesota loses to Green Bay, which I expect, and Seattle loses in Arizona, then the Vikings are the No. 5 seed and would play at Washington next week. What's interesting about that Seahawks-Cardinals game is neither team might care by the 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. That's because Arizona would be locked into the NFC's No. 2 seed if Carolina beats visiting Tampa Bay, which should happen, in a 1 p.m. game. In that scenario, do the Cards rest their key guys? I would think so. You don't risk Carson Palmer's knees against that vicious Seattle defense. Do the Seahawks go all-out to determine whether they get to play at Washington or Green Bay (assuming Vikings lose)? I guarantee that the Seahawks would rather face the Redskins.

Vikings at Packers Betting Story Lines

Barring multiple turnovers by the Packers or defensive/special teams scores by the Vikings, I don't give them much chance unless Adrian Peterson has a big day. And he has extra motivation do to so as Peterson looks for his third career rushing title. He has 1,418 yards, with Tampa's Doug Martin at No. 2 with 1,354. I doubt Martin has a huge game at Carolina since the Panthers have to try 100 percent. Peterson, 30, appears set to become the first rushing champ in his 30s since Curtis Martin in 2004. Peterson has the sixth-most yards by a 30-year-old back in NFL history, but realistically can't climb higher than fourth. Peterson already has cashed in big. By surpassing 1,350 yards and helping the Vikings secure a playoff berth, Peterson has guaranteed himself at least a $4 million bonus on the third day of the 2016 league year.

Every time I think the Packers have things figured out and are legitimate Super Bowl contenders, they lay an egg. They took a three-game winning streak into last week's game at Arizona. There's no shame in losing at the excellent Cardinals, but it was a 38-8 wipeout. Aaron Rodgers was just 15-for-28 for 151 yards and was sacked a whopping eight times for 70 yards. He lost two fumbles and both were returned for touchdowns.

Think the Vikings might blitz a lot Sunday like Arizona did? The Pack were without starting left tackle David Bakhtiari with an injury and lost starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga to an ankle injury during the game. Their status for this game is up in the air. Doesn't look great for Bakhtiari at least.

In Week 11 at Minnesota on a Thursday night, Green Bay played one of its most complete games of the year in a 30-13 win. The Vikings led only briefly 6-3 in the first quarter. Rodgers threw for 212 yards and two scores and was sacked only twice. Eddie Lacy ran for 100 yards and James Jones caught six passes for 109 and a score. Teddy Bridgewater threw for 296 yards and a score but was sacked six times. Peterson only got 13 carries and totaled 45 yards.

Vikings at Packers Betting Odds and Trends

Green Bay is a 3-point favorite (-125) with a total of 45.5. The Packers are -175 on the moneyline and Vikings +155. On the alternate line, the Pack are -3.5 (+100) and -2.5 (-150). Minnesota is 12-3 against the spread (6-1 on road) and 4-10-1 "over/under" (1-5-1 on road). Green Bay is 9-6 ATS (4-3 at home) and 5-10 O/U (1-6 at home).

The Vikings are 9-2 ATS in their past 11 after a win. They are 6-2 ATS in their past eight vs. teams with a winning record. Green Bay has covered six of its past nine following a loss. The Pack are 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The under is 8-1 in the Vikings' past nine vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 8-2 in their past 10 in the division. The under is 5-1 in Green Bay's past 12 overall. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings. The over is 11-5 in the past 16.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Vikings at Packers Betting Predictions

The young Vikings aren't used to a game like this, while Green Bay won in Chicago in 2013 for the North title and then beat the visiting Lions last year in Week 17 for the division crown. Something about the regular-season finale brings out the best in Green Bay. It is 8-1 in the past nine Week 17 games and 5-0 at home. Green Bay has scored 276 points in Week 17 games over that span, tied with the Pats for the most in the NFL. The Pack also have won 10 of the past 12 in this series, with that lone loss listed above (one tie).

I don't think this is all that close as Minnesota has just one win over a playoff-bound team (and that was when Chiefs were in tailspin), but to be safe give only the 2.5 points. Go under the total. As one would expect, it will be quite chilly in Green Bay on Sunday night, although it doesn't appear there will be any snow.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'NFC North up for grabs'

Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings line up against each other Sunday night at Lambeau Field with the winner claiming the division crown and the #3-seed in the NFC playoffs. The football betting market has certainly noticed Green Bay isn't playing at the level we've been accustomed to. Packers throttled 38-8 at Arizona last week recording their lowest offensive performance of the season are handing Vikings just -3.0 to -3.5 points depending on locale.

Here at Lambeau Field, the Pakers are 5-2 (4-3 ATS) but are 0-2 SU/ATS hosting a division rival. As for Boat-Men, they have a 4-3 SU record in enemy territory with a money-making 6-1 mark against the betting line including a perfect 5-0 ATS when in an underdog roll.

Still, Green Bay has a lot going for them. The Pack have dominated this rivalry, posting a 10-1-1 (8-4 ATS) record the past twelve meetings including 5-0-1 (5-1 ATS) at Lambeau Field. Home-field advantage is certainly something they can tap into. In the last sixteen in front of its friendly crowd the Packers have have won fourteen with just two losses covering ten of those matchups (10-5-1 ATS). In addition, Packers have responded in the situation they find themselve. The last fiften times Packers were off a loss then facing a division foe the result has been 12 tickets cashed (12-2-1 ATS). Finally, Packers have made bettors happy in six of the last nine in Sunday's betting range (6-3 ATS).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaks, Tips, Notes

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills January 3, 1:00 EST

Jets look to grab the AFC Wild-Card spot with a win over Bills and X-coach Rex Ryan. Always a challenge laying road points in a division game. However, Jets are hitting the field with a mound of confidence having won five consecutive games (4-0-1 ATS) with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick tossing 13 TD's vs 1 Int over the span. Expect Fitzpatrick to shred Bills 23rd-ranked pass defense early and often. Consider laying the small number (-3), Jets are 6-1-1 ATS on the road vs a division that won its last game, the Bills are 1-5-1 ATS off a win, 2-7 ATS last game of season facing a division foe.


Seattle at Arizona January 3, 4:25 EST

Bettors love-affair with Arizona continues. Cardinals opened -3.5 point favorite and have since been bet up to -6.5, -7.0. Leaving that many points on the table could be costly. This looks to be a spot to dive in. Seahawks not only respond as Conference Dogs (12-3 ATS), they're a sparkling 5-0 ATS off a loss facing a division opponent of a win, 5-2 ATS on the road off a loss as a favorite.

 

[bloodsweatandbeers]

anyone have RJ BELL's plays from the radio, seen them posted in past weeks......................thx............................BSB

 

[JohnMolson]

rainman ??