NFL
Week 17
Jets (10-5) @ Bills (7-8)-- Jets make playoffs with a win, but they've lost five of last six games with Buffalo, losing last three visits here by 19-23-35 points. Jets lost at home to Bills 22-17 (-2.5) in Week 10, thanks to -4 turnover ratio that included a TD on a fumbled kick return. Jets are +18 in turnovers in their wins, -13 in losses; they won/covered last five games, including OT win over Patriots LW. Jets lost three of five true road games (played "at" Giants, vs Miami in London); they're 6-5 as faves, 1-2 on road. Buffalo lost four of last six games but has won three in row at home, by 16-9-10 points; they're 3-2-1 as underdogs, 1-1 t home. Five of last seven Jet games stayed under total.
Buccaneers (6-9) @ Panthers (14-1)-- Carolina lost first game LW, has next week off thanks to its bye; unsure how many starters they'll rest here. Panthers (-3) scored two defensive TDs in 37-23 (-3) win at Tampa Bay in Week 4, its 7th win in last nine game vs Bucs, who have lost five of last seven visits here, last two by 19-2 points. Tampa lost four of its last five games (-7 turnover ratio); they're 4-3 as road dogs, but lost 25-12/31-23 in last two road games. Bucs' defense has one takeaway in its last five games. Carolina gave up 30+ points in three of last four games; they're 4-2 as home faves- four of their last five games were on road. Six of last nine Carolina games went over the total.
Patriots (12-3) @ Dolphins (5-10)-- New England is 2-3 in last five games after 10-0 start; they need win here for bye next week, home field thru AFC playoffs. Patriots (-8) pounded Miami 36-7 back in Week 8, outgaining Fish 437-270 in game that was 19-0 at half. Dolphins lost seven of last nine games (1-8 vs spread), losing its last three games by 7-16-6 points- they're 2-4 at home, losing by 27-10-7-6 points. Now the wife of a defensive player is ripping QB Taneyhill on Twitter- not good. Home side won last six series games; Patriots lost 24-20/33-20 in last two visits here- they are 9-2 in last 11 series games overall. Under is 5-2 in last seven Miami games, 1-4 in last four Patriot games.
Ravens (5-10) @ Bengals (11-4)-- McCarron sprained left wrist Monday nite on last play, is expected to play; Bengals could still get bye next week, so they need to win this game, against team they beat 28-24 (+2.5) in Week 3. Bengals led 14-0 at half, averaged 10.9 ypa, had 15-yard edge in field position. Ravens lost five of last six in series, losing last three visits here by 6-17-3 points. Baltimore got boost from new QB Mallett LW, 4th QB they started in last six games. Ravens covered last three on road; their only two SU road wins were division games at Pitt/Cleveland. Under is 7-2 in last nine Bengal games, 4-2-1 in last seven Baltimore games. Bengals lost two of last three at home, but are 4-2-1 as home favorites.
Saints (6-9) @ Falcons (8-7)-- Atlanta won last two games, allowing 15 ppg but 1-7 skid doomed their season, a skid that started with 31-21 (-3) loss to Saints at home in Week 6, when Falcons lost three fumbles and had punt blocked for TD. Saints are 15-5 in last 20 games in this rivalry, 6-3 in last nine visits here; they've allowed 43 TD passes this year, three more than any team, ever. NO is 2-5 on road, 3-3 as a road underdog- they won two of last three games, covered three of last four. Over is 8-3 in last 11 Saint games, 0-9 in Falcons' last nine. Falcons failed to cover seven games in row as a favorite- they're 1-4 as home favorites. Atlanta converted 15 of 29 on third down in last two games. This is an underrated rivalry game.
Jaguars (5-10) @ Texans (8-7)-- Houston makes playoffs unless nine things happen Sunday; they've won six of last eight games after a 2-5 start, winning last two with #5 QB Weeden playing (33-54/352 in two games). Texans (+2) won 31-20 in Week 6 at Jacksonville, picking off three passes (+3) one of which was run back for TD. Jax lost four of last five games, are 4-3 as road underdogs. Texans are 3-3 as favorites this year; they ran ball for 283 yards last two weeks- they're +10 in turnovers in last ten games, after being -8 in first five games. Over is 4-1 in last five Jaguar games, 1-7 in last eight Houston games. Jags lost four of last five visits here; last three were all decided by 7 or less points. Hoyer is healthy again, will start at QB for Texans.
Steelers (9-6) @ Browns (3-12)-- Pitt needs win here and Bills win to make playoffs; they beat Browns 30-9 (-4.5) in Week 10, throwing for 399 yards (10.5 yp) in game that was 21-3 at half. Steelers are 27-5 vs Cleveland, but lost two of last three here; they lost three of last four road games, are 5-2 as favorite this year, 1-1 on foreign soil. Browns lost nine of last ten games, covered two of last three; they covered once in last seven games as an underdog- their only recent win was 24-10 vs 49ers. Browns have two TDs on 25 drives last three losses, by 34-17-4 points. Four of last five Steeler games went over total; six of last seven Cleveland games stayed under. Manziel is in concussion protocol; Austin Davis likely to start at QB for Browns.
Raiders (7-8) @ Chiefs (10-5)-- KC is in playoffs, can still win AFC West, Oakland has shot for a .500 season- this is a big rivalry. Chiefs won last nine games (7-2 vs spread) after 1-5 start- they're 2-4 as home favorites- failing to cover last two home games despite allowing one TD on 18 drives. Raiders are 4-0 as road dogs, losing away games by 2-3-5 points (4-3SU). Four of Chiefs' last five home games stayed under total. Chiefs (-3) won 34-20 at Oakland in Week 13, picking off three passes in 4th quarter that led to TD drives of 13-2 yards as well as a defensive TD. Chiefs won four of last five series games, winning 24-7/31-13 in last two here-- Raiders had won six in row at Arrowhead before Reid became Chiefs' coach.
Titans (3-12) @ Colts (7-8)-- Indy still has (small) shot at division title, they signed Freeman/Lindley off street Monday, but Hasselbeck says he feels better and could start. Colts (-3) won 35-33 at Tennessee in Week 3, scoring a defensive TD- they're 13-1 last 14 series games, winning last eight in row. Titans lost last seven visits to Indy, with five of seven losses by 8+ pts. Tennessee lost six of last seven games (0-6-1 vs spread); they're 2-4 as underdogs on road, losing last three on foreign soil by 6-22-17 points. Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Titan games, 4-2 in last six Indy games. Indy was outscored 85-6 in second half of its last four games. I cannot think of one good reason to wager on this game.
Redskins (8-7) @ Cowboys (4-11)-- Washington is locked into #4 seed/home field in playoff game next week; will they rest starters? Dallas is 1-10 in games started by backup QBs- Moore makes second career start here. Cowboys scored 9.7 ppg in losing last three games since 19-16 (+3.5) win in Maryland four weeks ago, winning despite losing three fumbles (-2), converting 1-9 on third down. Redskins won two of last three visits here, won/covered last three weeks, scoring 73 points in last two games. Washington won last two road games after losing first five; they're 3-4 as a road underdog. Dallas hasn't won a home game since Opening Night. Over is 5-2 in last seven Redskin games, 1-6 in last seven Dallas games.
Lions (6-9) @ Bears (6-9)-- Detroit got first win of year in Week 6, beating Bears in OT, 37-34; Lions outgained Bears 546-444, were -2 in turnovers, won despite losing field position by 15 yards- both teams scored in last 0:21 of regulation. Detroit won five of seven games since 1-7 start; they scored 67 points in last two games, with eight TDs on last 20 drives. Lions are 1-9 vs spread when they allow more than 17 points. Chicago lost three of last four games; they're 1-6 at home, losing last four- their only home win was 22-20 over Raiders in Week 4. Detroit won last five series games, winning 21-19/20-14 in last two visits here. Four of last five Detroit games, last four Chicago games went over total.
Eagles (6-9) @ Giants (6-9)-- Philly fired Kelly Monday; Lord knows how players will react here, with Giants coach Coughlin also on hot seat. Philly (-4) won 27-7 in first meeting in Week 6, running for 155 yards- they're 12-3 in last 15 games against Giants, winning seven of last eight played here. Both teams were eliminated when Redskins won last week; Eagles beat Jets 24-17 on this field in Week 3- they're 3-4 on road, beating Patriots in last road game. Giants lost five of last six games, giving up 87 points last two weeks; Big Blue lost last three home games by total of seven points. Five of last six Philly games, last three Giant games went over total. Giants have only three takeaways (-7) in last five games.
Vikings (10-5) @ Packers (10-5)-- Winner takes NFC North title, gets home tilt in playoffs next week. Green Bay (+1) won first meeting 30-13 in Twin Cities; they're 10-1-1 in last dozen series games, 5-0-1 in last six played here- four of five wins were by 9+ points. Minnesota scored 87 points in winning last two games; they're 12-3 vs spread this year, covering last six on road- they're 5-1 as an underdog. Green Bay was crushed in Arizona LW; Rodgers was sacked nine times in Pack's first loss in four games- they're 4-3 as home favorite this year. Three of last four Viking games went over total; five of last seven Packer games stayed under. Lows for this game expected to be in mid-teens.
Chargers (4-11) @ Broncos (11-4)-- Denver needs win for division title if KC won its 1:00 game, home field/bye either way. Broncos (-6) beat Chargers 17-3 four weeks ago, scoring a defensive TD and holding Bolts to 272 yards, in its 8th win in last nine series games. Chargers split last four visits here, losing by 7-14 points. San Diego has been out of it for long time but they covered four of last five games- they're still competing. Chargers are covered their last five road games. Denver rallied from 14-0 down LW to beat Bengals and stay in first place; they're 1-4 as home favorites. Under is 6-1 in last seven San Diego games, 3-1 in last four Bronco games. Manning will be Denver's backup QB.
Rams (7-8) @ 49ers (4-11)-- Both teams are out of it but this is rivalry; St Louis won 27-6 (-8) in first meeting, outrushing Niners 197-38, holding SF to 3.4 ypa. Rams are 1-1-1 in last three visits here, 4-10-1 in last 15 overall but they're now better team. St Louis won its last three games, scoring 25 ppg after five-game that ruined their season- their win/cover LW was their first in six outdoor tilts this year. 49ers lost last three games by 14-10-15 points; they're 3-4 at home, with all four losses to top teams. SF is 4-3 as home underdog- they were dog in every game this season. Under is 9-2 in Rams' last 11 games, 6-3 in 49ers' last nine games. This is Rams' first game on grass since October 11.
Seahawks (9-6) @ Cardinals (13-2)-- Arizona won its last nine games (5-4 vs spread); only games they lost this year they were -3 in turnovers both games. Cardinals (+3) won 39-32 at Seattle in Week 10, despite turning ball over three times (-2)- they converted 8-17 on third down. Redbirds are 3-4 as favorites at home- they scored three defensive TDs in last two games. Seattle had 5-game win streak snapped LW; they've 4-2 in last six games with Arizona, winning 34-22/35-6 in last two visits here- their last four series wins were by 12+ pts. Seattle can move up to #5 seed and face Redskins instead of Packers/Vikings next week. Four of last five Arizona games stayed under the total.
