Sunday 1/22/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Moves - Championships
By Micah Roberts

The average Joe is having their best NFL playoffs which in turn has made the last two weeks the roughest playoffs Las Vegas sports books have ever seen. It's been an incredible run, and those bettors have made it well-known what their collectively strategy is for Sunday's conference championship games.

"We're split overall on the Packers-Falcons game," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal, "but if the Packers win paying off on the money-line (+175), parlayed to the Over (61) and then tied to the Patriots covering (-6), it's going to be an ugly day."

That's the doomsday three-team parlay paying out +902 that the books simply can't make up through straight bet wagers on the other sides.

"It's been all Packers money-line with the fans (public) while the sharps have been on the Falcons," Simbal said. "Were 5.5-to-1 on ticket counts with the Packers money-line."

CG Tech's nine books in Las Vegas have the Falcons as 5.5-point home favorites over the Packers, which along with the Westgate SuperBook is the highest number offered in Las Vegas as of Friday afternoon. Most books are at -5 with the South Point offering the only -4.5.

William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada have seen 91 percent of their GB/ATL money-line tickets written on the Packers money-line (+175) as well as 78 percent of the actual cash.

Wynn Resort sports books director John Avello says he's "seeing some good size wagers on the Packers money-line". When Avello says "good size wagers" at a place that houses several whales who get any amount they want, I immediately think six-figures.

Who needs the points with the Packers anyway, right? Although, it was the Packers who needed +3 to cash in the Week 8 meeting at Atlanta when the Falcons won 33-32, the Packers to win outright has been the popular bet throughout town.

It's hard not to buy in to the reasoning and believe in quarterback Aaron Rodgers after saying his team would "run the table" when the Packers were 4-6 and playoff hopes were looking dim. True to his word, Green Bay has won eight straight (7-1 ATS) and made Joe Public a believer.

Perhaps the most intriguing part of the Packers-Falcons game is the monstrous record setting total sitting as high as 61.5 at Boyd Gaming and Station Casinos chain of local casinos. Most books, like CG Technology, are firm at 61.

"We had sharp action take 'over' 59.5 and also 'under' 61.5. When we've been at 60 or 61 we've had good two-way action. The fans are betting Over."

The last two meetings between MVP candidates Matt Ryan and Rodgers have totaled a whopping 145 points.

"If Atlanta could win by 3, that would be super," said Simbal regarding his best scenario. "It would also help us out in futures because we do the best with them in NFC and Super Bowl."

Sunday's late game features two more elite quarterbacks, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, with the Patriots as consensus six-point home favorites over the Steelers and the public has made it clear who they support here with a number driven up from an opener of -4.5.

"They're betting New England and they can't stop betting New England," said Simbal. "We're at -6 and have over two times the cash on the Patriots. We've also taken a huge Patriots money-line bet (at -230). All the fans are betting the Steelers money-line (+220), but we still need them to win."

The Steelers come into this game on a nine-game win streak (7-1-1 ATS), but the Patriots have won eight straight (7-1 ATS). The most incredible thing about what New England has done this season is go 14-3 ATS when most of the spreads -- when Tom Brady returned in Week 5 -- were inflated by 25 percent of what the true rating suggested.

The Patriots won a Week 7 meeting at Pittsburgh, 27-16, as 7.5-point road favorites in a game that Roethlisberger missed. They last met in the playoffs during Big Ben's rookie season when the Steelers were seeded No. 1 and the Patriots (-3) won 41-27 earning a trip to the Super Bowl.

William Hill books have taken 88 percent of their cash on the game laying the points with the Patriots. The total in the game hasn't been as popular as the NFC game holding steady at 51 with a few books showing 50.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ben vs. Brady: Which AFC Championship quarterback the best bet?
By ANDREW CALEY

Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger are two of the most accomplished quarterbacks in recent NFL history - if not of all time. The two have appeared in a combined 14 conference championship games and have six Super Bowl rings between them. Not bad.

However, it may be a bit surprising to realize that these two AFC stalwarts haven’t gone head-to-head in a playoff game since the 2005 AFC Championship Game, in what was Roethlisberger’s rookie season. The Patriots won that meeting 41-27 as 3-point road favorites, giving Brady first blood in this rivalry.

That begs the question though, whether it’s head-to-head or over the course of their playoff careers, which of these two all-time signal callers has been the best bet: Brady, or Big Ben?

Head-to-head

Brady and Roethlisberger have played each other just eight times since 2004-05, including the 2005 AFC title game and the “Golden Boy” has gotten the better of his Pittsburgh counterpart, especially in the win column. New England is 6-2 straight up in Brady’s eight games against Roethlisberger but holds just a 5-3 edge against the spread.

When you narrow it down to games played at Foxboro, the needle slides further in the Patriots' favor. New England is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS when Brady and Roethlisberger face off at Gillette Stadium.

It seems Brady relishes the matchup as well, throwing for 20 touchdowns to just three interceptions in those eight games, compared to just 17 TDs and eight INTs for Roethlisberger. Brady’s numbers are even more staggering when the pair battle in New England. In the three Patriots wins, “Tom Terrific” has thrown 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions with 1,087 passing yards.

In conference championship games

Now everyone knows Brady was been insanely successful since becoming the Patriots' starting quarterback, taking the franchise to 10 AFC Championship Games, and winning six of those.

Unfortunately, for Pats backers he hasn’t had as much success at the betting window in those games, going just 4-6 ATS. In fact, since that 2005 meeting with Roethlisberger and the Steelers, Brady is just 1-6 ATS in his last seven conference championship games.

Meanwhile, Roethlisberger has been to three AFC title games since then, going a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in each. However, it will be the first time Big Ben and the Steelers will be appearing in the AFC title game since the 2010-11 season when they defeated the New York Jets 24-19 as 4-point home favorites.

However, it should be noted that Roethlisberger hasn’t faced a quarterback of Brady’s caliber in the AFC Championship since the 2005 meeting with New England. He defeated a Jake Plummer-led Broncos squad in 2006, a rookie Joe Flacco in 2009 and "Mr. Butt Fumble" himself, Mark Sanchez in 2011.

In the playoffs and situational trends

In terms of playoff betting, Brady has been a fine bet on the moneyline if you’re willing to pay for it, but he has actually cost bettors quite a bit during his career and has a losing record against the spread.

Brady is just 15-16-1 ATS in 31 career playoff games, that’s a success rate of 48.4 percent. Digging further, since the 2007-08 season, Brady is a bankroll-busting 7-10 ATS (41.2 percent) in the playoffs.

When Brady has been listed as a playoff favorite he is 11-13-1 ATS (45.3 percent), but it gets a little better when he’s at Gillette Stadium, where New England boasts a 10-8-1 ATS (55.6 percent) record.

On the other side of the ball, Roethlisberger is 11-6-2 ATS in 19 career playoff games - good for a profitable success rate of 64.7 percent. As a playoff underdog, like the Steelers will be this week, Big Ben is 4-3-1 ATS (57.1 percent) and he’s 4-1-2 (80 percent) as a playoff road team.

So while Brady has the edge over Roethlisberger when it comes to head-to-head meetings, lucky No. 7 has been the better playoff bet overall. What's that mean for Sunday's AFC Championship game? We'll find out soon enough, but it's food for thought if you're sizing up the spread.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Will the flu ruin your NFL bets this weekend?
By ANDREW CALEY

Playing a playoff game as a road underdog in the NFL can be hard enough. Throw in something like the flu and it can be a nightmare, not only for players, but bettors as well.

That’s exactly what the Green Bay Packers (+6 at Atlanta) and Pittsburgh Steelers (+6 at New England) are both dealing with heading into Conference Championship Sunday.

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers told reporters Friday, he caught a bug that has been circling around the Green Bay locker room, but reiterated that with plenty of rest and fluids that he should be fine.

"We'll be OK," Rodgers told the media. "It's kind of going around. I know Jordy had it. Mason had it. I got it. So we're all... we're going to be OK and deal with it."

Wideout Jordy Nelson, (who is also trying to recover from a rib injury he suffered in the Wild Card Round) and kicker Mason Crosby missed time at practice this week due to illness.

A flu bug has also been bouncing around the Steelers locker room. According to reports, up to 15 Pittsburgh players have been suffering from an illness this week, including tight end Ladarius Green and receiver Darius Heyward-Bey.

Steelers coach Mike Tomlin told reporters Thursday they wouldn’t use a little bug as an excuse.

“I’m just thankful that I’ve stayed out of the line of fire,” Tomlin said Thursday. “We’re not making excuses. There won’t be. We’ll be there, we’ll be ready to play, this is just part of normal things that happen over the course of a season.”

When it comes to the betting side of things, oddsmakers are warning the public not to overreact and are taking the wait-and-see approach.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AFC Best Bet

AFC Conference Championship (CBS, 6:40 p.m. ET)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots

Odds: New England (-6); Total set at 51

With a berth to the Super Bowl on the line, both QB's involved in this game understand what it takes to get there.

Tom Brady has been to six Super Bowls during his illustrious career while Ben Roethlisberger has been to the big game three times.

Neither guy will be afraid to take the necessary risks for the big play to help get their team over the hump and with two explosive offenses out the field, this game could turn into one of those legendary QB duels that NFL Network makes Top 10 lists about.

Although the Steelers defense has evolved into one of the best in the league (currently #1 in the playoffs) the past few months, they understand the task that lies ahead.

They've got one of the best pass rushes in the league – near the top since LB Bud Dupree came back from injury – and getting to and frustrating Tom Brady in the pocket is the key to beating New England. We've seen the Giants do it twice to him in Super Bowls, as well as Pittsburgh's division rival Baltimore do it here in Foxborough on multiple occasions.

The Steelers are more than capable of having similar success, but chances are it will be fleeting. Brady and the Pats offense had their “down” game last week vs. Houston and the team still found a way to put up 34 points. HC Bill Belichick is a master at understanding how teams will attack New England and counter it, and with Brady primed for a much better performance, Pittsburgh's offense is likely going to need 28+ points to leave there with a win.

There's no question that Pittsburgh's offense is more then capable of getting to that point total, although their offense has been much less efficient on the road this year.

Pittsburgh averages 21.2 points on the road this year – compared to 24.8 overall – but after failing to get into the endzone once vs. Kansas City, a bounce back performance is definitely in the cards for the Steelers as well. All that being said, there is a strong chance we do get one of those QB duels alluded to before and with the point spread sitting about where it should be, it's the total that has become the better betting option.

The 2016 NFL playoffs have been filled with rematch games from the regular season, and like with division rematch games during the year, flip-flopping on these plays is never a bad idea. Seven of the eight playoff games have been rematches so far and flip-flopping on the total in those seven games has produced a 4-3 record.

However, isolating it further, when the regular season meeting stayed 'under' the number, playing on the 'over' in the playoffs has produced a nice 3-1 mark.

As an organization, Pittsburgh is 6-0 O/U the last six times they've played in this round, and this team is also 24-11 O/U after giving up less than 250 yards in their previous outing. For as good as the Steelers looked against the dink-and-dunk Kansas City offense, they've still got some question marks in the secondary and that's never good against Brady and the Pats.

Furthermore, the Patriots love to score points at home in the playoffs as they are 5-0 O/U in their last five home playoff games, and are 4-0 O/U this year after winning by 14+ points. After scoring 30+, New England has a 42-18 O/U run going and they've got to have the same idea about putting up 28+ to win this one because they understand the explosiveness the Steelers offense possesses as well.

While everyone is expecting a plethora of points in the NFC Championship between Green Bay and Atlanta, and rightfully so with a total of 61, it should be the AFC Championship game that more easily cashes an 'over' bet.

Best Bet: Take Over 51 points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFC Best Bet

NFC Championship (FOX, 3:05 p.m. ET)
Green Bay vs. Atlanta

Odds: Atlanta (-4.5); Total set at 61

Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan have been two of the best QB's in the NFL this year and both are playing off the charts at the moment.

Green Bay has lived up to Rodgers' proclamation of “running the table” when they were 4-6 SU and are now one win away from getting to the big game.

They'll have to go into Atlanta and get through Matt Ryan to do so though, 12 weeks to the day after the Packers were here and lost 33-32 on a Matt Ryan TD pass with 31 seconds left.

Revenge and superb current form will be a strong argument you'll hear from those bettors backing the Packers in this game and it's tough to argue against either. Rodgers is playing in another world right now and a ninth straight win would put Green Bay in the Super Bowl.

Green Bay has scored 30 or more in six straight games leading up to this one and they'll likely need to make it seven in a row to get by the #1 offense in the league.

Atlanta averages 33.9 points/game on the year but they've scored 33 or more in five straight games and are no strangers to lighting up the scoreboard. The Packers defense isn't exactly stellar (neither is Atlanta's) and given how talented both QB's and the weapons around them are, that's the reason we've got the highest playoff total in the history of the NFL playoffs listed for this game. 65 points were put up in the first meeting and with all the early money on this total coming in on the high side, there are many expecting more of the same on Sunday.

However, the stakes are exponentially higher in the NFC Championship then they were in a Week 8 game when both teams were trying to find their footing. The 65 points scored was a sign of ultimate efficiency on both ends as neither offense ran more than 60 plays with penalties at critical moments and big plays put the teams in prime scoring position early and often.

Don't forget too, that the lined total on that contest was just 51 points, and it's tough to reason (other than current form) that the same two teams playing in the same stadium with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line is worth 10 points to the line.

With the pressure being ramped up to the extreme, I don't expect either offense to be nearly as efficient as they were that day, or as they've been in the playoffs. Both teams should have the goal of sustaining long drives to keep the opposing offense off the field in the back of their minds, and Atlanta's running game is stellar while

Green Bay's ground attack is much improved. Furthermore, defenses will be tasked with trying to force FG tries as opposed to TD's (eight of the 11 scoring plays in that first game were TD's), and if that happens it also helps the 'under' cause.

Both QB's aren't likely to escape without a turnover again either and while turnovers often lead to points, in a game like this where everyone is expecting each side to move up and down the field, don't be surprised if a critical INT or two happens in the redzone or endzone. If that's the case, long drives turn into nothing and 'over' bettors will be left pining for what could have been.

Combined, these two teams are 26-8-1 O/U this year with Atlanta leading the way at 14-2-1 O/U. The Falcons are a perfect 9-0 O/U at home, but are on a 2-7 O/U run in their own building when a team with a winning road record comes to town.

Green Bay is going to have a less than 100% WR Jordy Nelson (if he even plays) and he was the guy that took the cap of Atlanta's defense before with 94 yards and a TD on just four catches. The Packers obviously have other weapons to use, but with the Falcons defense knowing Nelson won't be 100%, they can key on other guys to slow Rodgers and company down.

Bottom line, 61 points is a ton for a Conference Championship game, let alone when it's expected to be that high. The playoffs are where you'll find surprises and unsung heroes helping teams advance and in this case, with everyone who follows the NFL believing this game to be a 40-37 type shootout, it will be whichever defense steps up and makes key plays at critical times that will earn that “hero” status.

This is not a popular play by any means, but with the pressure of the Super Bowl being so close and both teams having a solid understanding of how the other will attack, don't be afraid to take the 'under' here as this game will end in the mid-50's.

Best Bet: Take Under 61 points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Packers at Falcons
By Brian Edwards

How They Got Here

Atlanta (12-5 straight up, 11-6 against the spread) advanced to the NFC Championship Game by drilling Seattle 36-20 last Saturday as a six-point home favorite. The 56 combined points went ‘over’ the 51-point total thanks to a pair of touchdown passes in the final four minutes. Just 19 seconds after Matt Ryan’s three-yard TD pass to Mohamed Sanu extended the Falcons’ lead to 36-13, Russell Wilson found Doug Baldwin for a 31-yard scoring strike to hook up ‘over’ supporters.

Ryan completed 26-of-37 passes for 338 yards and three TDs without an interception. Julio Jones had six receptions for 67 yards and one TD, while Tony Gabriel had four catches for 71 yards. Devonta Freeman rushed 14 times for 45 yards and one TD while also catching four balls for 80 yards. Tevin Coleman had 57 rushing yards on 11 attempts, in addition to three receptions for 22 yards and one TD.

Keanu Neal, the team’s first-round pick out of Florida, had a team-high eight tackles and one assists. Meanwhile, another rookie, second-round pick Deion Jones from LSU, had three tackles, two assists and one interception. Ricardo Allen also had an interception.

Green Bay (12-6 SU, 11-6 ATS) won its eighth consecutive game by going into Dallas and capturing a 34-31 win as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. The Packers, who improved to 7-1 ATS in their last eight contests, won on Mason Crosby’s walk-off 51-yard field goal as time expired. The game-winning boot was set up by one of the sickest passes you’ll ever see, as Aaron Rodgers found Jared Cook for a 36-yard connection. Rodgers had been sacked for a 10-yard loss on the previous play, leaving his team facing a 3rd-and-20 play with 12 seconds remaining. Rodgers rolled to his left and was moving toward the sidelines to avoid pressure before unleashing a dart to Cook, who expertly tapped his toes just inside the white line before falling out of bounds.

Crosby had booted a 56-yarder with 1:38 remaining to put Green Bay in front 31-28 after Dallas had scored 15 unanswered points. But the Cowboys responded by going 42 yards in five plays to set up Dan Bailey’s tying 52-yard field goal with 44 ticks left.

After Dallas kicked a field goal on its opening drive of the game, Green Bay scored 21 straight points thanks to a pair of Ty Montgomery TD runs. Trailing by 18 midway through the second quarter, the Cowboys countered with a four-play, 75-yard drive that was capped by Dak Prescott’s 40-yard TD pass to Dez Bryant. After forcing a quick three and out by Green Bay, Dallas mounted another nice drive that ended with a 33-yard field goal by Bailey to trim the deficit to one-possession (21-13) by intermission.

Green Bay took the opening drive of the third quarter and quickly went 75 yards to paydirt on just six plays. Rodgers connected on all six of his throws on the drive, including 25 and 26-yard completions to Randall Cobb and Cook, respectively. The veteran QB found Cook for a three-yard scoring strike to cap the drive.

Rodgers completed 28-of-43 throws for 355 yards and a pair of TDs, although he was intercepted for the first time since Nov. 13. Montgomery produced 47 rushing yards and two TDs on 11 carries while also catching six balls for 34 yards. Cook finished with six receptions for 103 yards and one TD, while Davante Adams had five grabs for 76 yards. Cobb had seven catches for 62 yards.

Micah Hyde led the defense with four tackles, one sack and a clutch interception that stifled a Dallas drive deep in Green Bay territory.

Rodgers is playing the best football of his life, throwing 36 TD passes compared to only four interceptions since Week 7. Making those numbers more impressive is the fact that he’s been without so many of his weapons for good chunks of the season. Starting RB Eddie Lacy went on injured reserve in early October, while veteran back-up RB James Starks remains ‘out’ since sustaining a concussion in early December. Those injuries prompted Montgomery’s move to RB after playing WR throughout his collegiate career at Stanford.

Cobb missed the last three games of the regular season, though he’s returned and played extremely well in the first two games of the postseason. WR Jordy Nelson, who had 97 receptions for 1,257 yards and 14 TDs during the regular season, suffered two broken ribs in the first half of Green Bay’s 38-13 home win over the Giants in the NFC quarterfinals on Jan. 8. Nelson didn’t play at Dallas and is considered ‘doubtful’ at Atlanta.

Adams, who had 75 catches for 997 yards and 12 TDs during the regular season, has 13 grabs for 201 yards and one TD in the first two games of the postseason. However, he sprained his ankle at Dallas and is ‘questionable’ to play against the Falcons. WR Geronimo Allison (hamstring) is also ‘questionable,’ along with starting safety Morgan Burnett and starting OG T.J. Lang.

As for Atlanta, it won’t have DE Adrian Clayborn (5 sacks) after he tore his bicep vs. Seattle. Also, WRs Jones and Gabriel have been limited at practice this week due to lingering foot injuries, but both will play.

Series History

Well, the obvious thing you think about with these two organizations is how Jerry Glanville opted to trade “Buckhead” Brett Favre to Green Bay for peanuts and a cold beer after Favre spent much of his rookie season partying in Atlanta and carrying a clipboard. We all know how that one worked out.

Since 2001, Green Bay has won six of 11 head-to-head meetings, but the Falcons are 7-4 ATS in those encounters. They’ve met three times in the playoffs with the Packers winning two of those contests. They routed an Atlanta team coached by June Jones with Jeff George as its QB by a 37-20 count in 1994.

Then in January of 2003, a young Michael Vick, who was in his second NFL season and his first as a starter and had other-worldly quickness and speed at the time, put on a scintillating performance to lead the Falcons to a 27-7 win. It was Green Bay’s first-ever postseason loss at Lambeau Field.

After going 13-3 to earn the NFC’s No. 1 seed in 2011, Atlanta hosted Green Bay in the NFC semifinals. With the game tied at 14-14, Rodgers found James Jones for a 20-yard scoring strike to put the Packers ahead 21-14 with 42 seconds left in the second quarter. The Falcons quickly moved the ball to Green Bay’s 26 with 14 seconds remaining. But then Ryan was sacked by Clay Matthews for a nine-yard loss and Atlanta was forced to call a timeout with 10 ticks left. Mike Smith opted to run one more play to get into better field-goal position, but Ryan was intercepted by Tramon Williams, who coasted to a 70-yard pick-six that was a backbreaker for Atlanta.

Green Bay rolled to a 48-21 win thanks to Rodgers, who was just downright nasty on that Saturday night at the Ga. Dome. He completed 31-of-36 passes for 366 yards and three TDs without an interception. Rodgers also had a seven-yard TD run. Meanwhile, Ryan went 20-for-29 for 186 yards with one TD and two interceptions.

These teams met on Oct. 30 with Atlanta winning a 33-32 thriller. However, Green Bay covered the number as a three-point road underdog. The 65 combined points soared ‘over’ the 51-point total. The game featured six lead changes, with the last coming after Ryan found Sanu for an 11-yard TD pass with 31 seconds remaining.

Ryan and Rodgers were both sensational. Rodgers completed 28-of-38 passes for 246 yards and four TDs without an interception. He also ran for 60 yards on just six attempts. Lacy, Starks and Montgomery were all out with injuries. Nelson had four receptions for 94 yards and one TD, while Adams had 12 catches for 74 yards.

Ryan connected on 28-of-35 throws for 288 yards and three TDs without a pick. Coleman was out with an injury and Freeman rushed for 35 yards and one TD on 11 carries. Sanu finished with nine catches for 84 yards and the game-winning TD grab. Gabriel had three receptions for 68 yards and one TD, while Jones was limited to three grabs for just 29 yards. Clayborn had a pair of sacks for Atlanta and Vic Beasley had one of his NFL-high 15.5 sacks for the year.

Playoff History

Atlanta is in the NFC Championship Game for just for the fourth time in the organization’s history. It has gone 1-2 in those games, winning in overtime at Minnesota in January of 1999. The Falcons lost 27-10 at Philadelphia in January of ’05 and allowed a 17-0 first-half lead to get away in a gut-wrenching 28-24 home loss to San Francisco four years ago. They’ve been to just one Super Bowl, getting smashed by John Elway and the Broncos in ’99.

Green Bay owns a 5-3 record in NFC Championship Games and is 34-21 in 55 overall playoff games. The Packers have won four Super Bowls, losing just one to Denver in 1998.

Line Movement

Shortly after Green Bay polished off Dallas, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Atlanta as a four-point favorite with an ‘over/under’ of 60. By Monday afternoon, the betting shop had adjusted the Falcons to 4.5-point ‘chalk’ with the total moved to 61. The tally briefly was bumped up to 61.5 but quickly moved back to 61, where it remained as of late Friday afternoon. Then on Saturday, the number was moved back to 61.5

On Tuesday morning, the Westgate moved Atlanta to five, only to go back to 4.5 that night. Then on Thursday, the Falcons were back to five. They went to 5.5 for a few hours on Friday, only to settle back at five by late Friday afternoon. With the chances of Nelson and/or Adams playing seemingly diminishing as of Saturday afternoon, the Westgate and many other shops had the Falcons up to six-point favorites.

As of Saturday afternoon, Atlanta was -200 to win outright (risk $200 to win $100), while the Packers were +175 on the money line (risk $100 to win $175). For first half wagers, most spots had the Falcons installed as three-point favorites (with a -120 price tag) with a total of 31.

Handicapper’s Corner

Chris David had these thoughts on the Packers and Falcons: “After dropping its first two games at the Georgia Dome this season as home favorites to the Buccaneers and Chargers, the Falcons have stayed the course and finished with a 5-1 mark when laying ‘chalk’ at home. Despite the strong finish, bettors could still be hesitant to lay the points with Atlanta knowing that it’s 6-14 (30%) ATS in its last 20 spots as a home favorite. One of those non-covers came in its three-point win over Green Bay.

“If you’re hesitant to lay the points with Atlanta, the money-line could be the better play and you’re getting value with it in this spot. Most betting shops are holding the Falcons as minus-200 favorites (Bet $100 to win $50) on the money-line versus the Packers. Normally, a five-point favorite in the NFL should be priced -240 so you’re saving 40 cents on each wager because the majority of bettors are backing Green Bay to win instead of taking the points.”

Props

The ‘over/under’ for Rodgers’ completions is 27.5 (‘under’ -120, ‘over’ -110), while his passing yards are at 323.5 (-115 either way). Other totals for the veteran QB include TD passes (2.5; -150 to the ‘over,’ +120 for the ‘under), longest completion (41.5; -115 either way) and pass attempts (41.5; u-120, o-110).

The following totals for Ryan: completions (25.5; o-140, u+110), passing yards (326.5; -115 either way) and TD passes (2.5; o-150, u+120). I’m bullish on the prop for Ryan’s passing yards to go ‘over’ 326.5.

Future Odds

New England is the +140 ‘chalk’ to win Super Bowl LI, while Atlanta has the second-shortest odds at +260 (risk $100 to win $260). Green Bay is +400 and Pittsburgh is +425.

Various outlets have odds on who will garner Super Bowl LI MVP honors New England’s Tom Brady is the +175 ‘chalk,’ while Ryan has the second-shortest odds (+350). Ryan’s odds at this time last week were 12/1. Other Falcons on the board included Freeman (30/1), Jones (30/1), Coleman (50/1), Beasley (50/1), Bryant (100/1), Gabriel (200/1), Neal (250/1) and Sanu (250/1).

Green Bay players on the board include Rodgers (+390), Nelson (50/1), Montgomery (50/1), Clay Matthews (75/1), Adams (75/1), Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (100/1), Cook (100/1), Cobb (100/1), Nick Perry (200/1), Peppers (500/1), Crosby (500/1), Hyde (500/1) and Ripkowski (1,000/1).

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Atlanta owns a 6-3 SU record and a 4-5 ATS mark at home this year.

-- Ryan owns a 2-4 record in six postseason games.

-- Green Bay has been an underdog five times this year, compiling a 4-1 spread record with three outright victories.

-- The ‘over’ has been a money-making machine in Atlanta games this season, cashing at a remarkable 14-2-1 overall clip. The ‘over’ is a perfect 9-0 for the Falcons in their home games.

-- The ‘over’ is 12-6 overall for the Packers, 7-2 in their road assignments.

-- Sportsbooks have spreads for all four potential Super Bowl LI matchups: New England -3.5 vs. Atlanta with a total of 55, New England -3 (+100) vs. Green Bay (+3 at -120 price) with a total of 54.5, Pittsburgh -1 vs. Atlanta (54) and Green Bay -1 vs. Pittsburgh (53.5).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steelers at Patriots
By Kevin Rogers

The Patriots and Steelers haven’t met in the postseason since the 2004 AFC Championship as the two conference powers hook up for the AFC title in Foxboro on Sunday evening. New England is playing in its sixth consecutive AFC Championship, as the Patriots are looking for their seventh Super Bowl appearance in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. Pittsburgh is playing its best football of the season, but will need an even better effort to reach its first Super Bowl since 2010.

HOW THEY GOT HERE

New England (15-2 SU, 14-3 ATS) captured its eighth consecutive AFC East title and 13th division championship in 15 seasons with a 14-2 regular season record. The Patriots survived Brady’s four-game “Deflategate” suspension to begin the season by winning three of the first four games with the combination of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett under center. Brady took over in Week 5 at Cleveland and torched the hapless Browns for 406 yards and three touchdown passes in a 33-13 rout.

The Patriots have won 12 of 13 games started by Brady this season with the only loss coming in a 31-24 home setback to Seattle in Week 10 as 7 ½-point favorites. Since that defeat to the Seahawks, New England has won eight consecutive games, while covering seven times, including in last week’s 34-16 triumph over Houston as 16 ½-point favorites in the divisional playoffs. Brady didn’t have his best game by completing 18-of-38 passes for 287 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions, but New England intercepted Brock Osweiler three times in the win.

Pittsburgh (13-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) last lost in Week 10 to Dallas at home, as the Steelers have ripped off nine consecutive victories. Although one of those wins during a seven-game hot streak to close the regular season came against a playoff team (Giants), the Steelers have limited seven of nine opponents to 20 points or less during this stretch. Since starting the season with a 1-3 road record, Mike Tomlin’s club has won five consecutive contests away from Heinz Field, as the Steelers were listed as a road underdog only once this season.

Although the Steelers failed to reach the end zone last Sunday, Pittsburgh held off Kansas City, 18-16 to cash outright as 2 ½-point underdogs to advance to the AFC Championship. Kicker Chris Boswell booted six field goals, while running back Le’Veon Bell racked up a career-high 170 yards on the ground, one week after rushing for 167 yards against the Dolphins. Wide receiver Antonio Brown put together his second consecutive 100-yard performance by hauling in six receptions for 108 yards, including the game-clinching catch to put away the Chiefs in the final minutes.

SERIES HISTORY

The Patriots have owned the Steelers through the years, winning nine of 12 matchups since the 2001 playoffs. Brady has compiled an 9-2 SU and 8-2-1 ATS record against Pittsburgh as one of three wins by the Steelers in this stretch came in 2008 when the New England star was out with a torn ACL.

These teams met at Heinz Field in Week 7 as New England pulled away from Pittsburgh, 27-16 as 7 ½-point favorites. Ben Roethlisberger missed the game with a left knee injury as backup Landry Jones stepped in and threw for 281 yards for Pittsburgh. Brady tossed a pair of touchdowns to James White and Rob Gronkowski, while running back LeGarrette Blount compiled 127 yards and two touchdowns for the Patriots.

New England has won four of the past five home meetings with Pittsburgh, including a 28-21 triumph to open up the 2015 season. The Patriots and Steelers are hooking up in the postseason for the fifth time ever as New England has captured three of the first four matchups, including a 41-27 rout of Pittsburgh in the 2004 AFC Championship.

PLAYOFF HISTORY

It seems like we see the Patriots in the AFC Championship every season (last miss was 2010), but New England has failed to win this game in three of the past four years. Last season, New England fell short at Denver in a 20-18 setback, but the Pats have won four of five home AFC Championships with Brady at quarterback. However, New England owns a dreadful 1-6 ATS mark in its last seven conference championships since 2006 with the only cover coming against Indianapolis in 2014.

The Steelers have qualified for the postseason seven times in Tomlin’s 10 seasons as head coach, while looking for the franchise’s first Super Bowl title since 2008 when Pittsburgh edged Arizona, 27-23. Pittsburgh is playing in its fifth AFC Championship game since 2004, while going on the road for the conference title game for the first time since 2005 when the Steelers dismantled the Broncos, 34-17 as three-point underdogs.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened the Patriots as 4 ½-point favorites with a total of 51 ½ once the Steelers advanced to the AFC Championship last Sunday night. New England has been pushed up to a six-point favorite along with a total of 51 and that number has stayed constant at many sports books. Sunday’s weather should hold up in Foxboro with temperatures in the low 40’s and a 20% chance of rain.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

Joe Nelson says New England will have its hands full with Pittsburgh’s defense, “Brady was hit often last week against the Texans as the offensive line didn’t hold up in many situations and Pittsburgh’s pass rush was formidable late in the season. The return of Bud Dupree mid-season has made a big impact and the playoff failures for New England all share the common theme of pressure up front created with the Giants, Ravens, and Broncos notably having the best success.”

On the defensive side for the Patriots, Nelson notes that they have stepped up their game in these situations, “New England allowed fewer than 16 points per game at home this season with only one team topping 24. In the past five AFC Championships, New England has given up just over 20 points per game with five straight wins for the ‘under’. The ‘under’ has now hit in 11 of the last 13 Pittsburgh road games going back to late last season with Pittsburgh yielding just over 15 points per game over the last six road games.”

PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

Pittsburgh

B. Roethlsiberger – Total Gross Passing Yards
284 ½ - OVER (-110)
284 ½ - UNDER (-110)

B. Roethlisberger – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (-160)
1 ½ - UNDER (+140)

L. Bell – Total Rushing Yards
103 ½ - OVER (-110)
103 ½ - UNDER (-110)

Will L. Bell score a touchdown?
YES (-150)
NO (+130)

A. Brown – Total Receiving Yards
95 ½ - OVER (-110)
95 ½ - UNDER (-110)

Will A. Brown score a touchdown?
YES (-130)
NO (+110)

New England

T. Brady – Total Gross Passing Yards
286 ½ - OVER (-110)
286 ½ - UNDER (-110)

T. Brady – Total Touchdown Passes
2 ½ - OVER (Even)
2 ½ - UNDER (-120)

Will T. Brady throw an interception?
YES (+130)
NO (-150)

Will L. Blount score a touchdown?
YES (-135)
NO (+115)

J. Edelman – Total Receiving Yards
80 ½ - OVER (-110)
80 ½ - UNDER (-110)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Packers or Falcons? NFL bloggers debate who will cover the NFC Championship

The NFC Championship game pits the NFL's two hottest quarterbacks against one another as Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons host Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in a rematch from the regular season that resulted in a evenly matched shootout. The Falcons edged the Packers 33-32 as three-point home faves back in Week 8, but the Packers enter this game as one of the hottest teams in the league, riding an eight game winning streak.

If you're still on the fence about who to back, listen up, we've enlisted the help of those who know these teams best to persuade you. Jason B. Hirschhorn, of Packers blog Acme Packing Company and Aaron Freeman, of Falcons blog, FalcFans, strap on the pads and debate who will not only cover the spread in Sunday's NFC title game, but punch their ticket to Super Bowl 51.

WHY THE PACKERS WILL COVER

Jason B. Hirschhorn is an award-winning journalist and Pro Football Writers of America member. He covers the NFL for Sports on Earth and SB Nation. He also serves as the senior writer and editor for Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog. Follow him on Twitter @by_JBH.

Aaron Rodgers has never played at a higher level

Aaron Rodgers arguably set the standard for quarterback play in the modern NFL during his MVP-winning 2011 campaign, and he came close to matching that effectiveness three years later when he won the award for the second time. If he hasn't topped those season over the course of the last two months, he has at least matched them. Rodgers possesses full mastery of the position from a mental standpoint and possesses the best all-around skill set in the game today. That combination has allowed him to shred some of the best defenses in the league during the Packers' eight-game win streak, and it should help him do so again against the Falcons.

Defense returning to health

A lack of healthy defenders, particularly in the secondary, affected Green Bay during the opening two rounds of the playoffs. However, cornerback Quinten Rollins should return after suffering a neck and head injury during Week 17 while safety Morgan Burnett looks increasingly likely to play despite picking up a quadriceps injury last Sunday against the Cowboys. Both would help the Packers' pass defense, with Burnett also factoring in significantly against the run.

Green Bay narrowly loss in first meeting despite then-sputtering offense

The Packers hit their offensive stride over the final month of the season, weeks after their initial trip to Atlanta. Despite that fact, they lost by only a single point to the Falcons. With an improved offense led by a red-hot quarterback, Green Bay can pull the upset.


WHY THE FALCONS WILL COVER

Aaron Freeman is the founder of FalcFans and co-host of the Locked on Falcons podcast. You can follow them on Twitter @falcfans and @lockedonfalcons.

Nickel and Diming

The Packers insisted on spending the bulk of their game plan using extra defensive backs in the nickel sub-package against a physical Cowboys running game. Yet thanks to getting behind early, the Cowboys abandoned their greatest strength in the running game and were never truly able to exploit the Packers’ defensive formations. Given the Falcons offensive prowess, falling behind by a huge margin is unlikely and if the Packers employ a lot of nickel the Falcons will counter with ample usage of multiple-tight end sets to facilitate both their run and passing game. This will also help the team control the clock and slow down Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense by keeping them off the field more readily than the Cowboys were able to do a week ago.

Return of Tevin Coleman

Running back Tevin Coleman gives the Falcons an “X factor” given that he did not play in both team’s previous matchup in Week 8. Coleman is a dynamic receiving threat out of the backfield as well as an explosive runner when he carries the ball. While Seattle’s talented defense was able to keep him mostly in check besides the touchdown he scored a week ago, the Packers simply don’t have the talent at linebacker and safety to compare with the Seahawks. That should give Coleman very favorable match ups on the outside as a receiver as well as in the running game, where the Falcons will insist on pounding the ball with their elite one-two punch formed by Coleman and Devonta Freeman.

Third Quarter Domination

The Falcons have absolutely dominated scoring margins in the third quarter, pacing the league in both the regular season and playoffs by outscoring their opponents by 87 points in that quarter alone. Meanwhile, the Packers have only outscored their opponents in the third quarter by a mere seven points. The Falcons also lead the league in average length of possession in the third quarter, averaging over four minutes on each of their drives beginning in that quarter. Should the game be close heading into halftime, the Falcons have a clear advantage when it comes to scoring points as well as keeping their opponent off the field to extend or retake any lead they hold as the fourth quarter begins.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steelers or Patriots? NFL bloggers debate who will cover the AFC Championship game

The AFC Championship features two teams full of championship pedigree as Tom Brady and the New England Patriots host Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers this Sunday. The two teams, who have a combined 14 conference title game appearances in the last 13 years, face off in Foxboro in a rematch from Week 7 that the Pats won in Pittsburgh 27-16, but that was against a Steelers team sans Big Ben.

If you're still on the fence about who to back, listen up, we've enlisted the help of those who know these teams best to persuade you. Jeff Hartman, of Steelers blog Behind the Steel Curtain and Rich Hill, of Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit, strap on the pads and debate not only who will cover the spread in Sunday's AFC title game, but punch their ticket to Super Bowl 51 as well.

WHY THE STEELERS WILL COVER

Jeff Hartman is the editor of Behind the Steel Curtain. You can follow them on Facebook and on Twitter @btsteelcurtain and @BnGBlitz.

Le'Veon Bell

The New England Patriots are the third best run defense in the NFL, but they haven't seen this type of production from a back recently. Bell is averaging over 170 yards rushing in the postseason, and his offensive line is performing at a championship level. The Steelers will run the ball, the Patriots know they will run the ball, but the question is will they be able to stop it?

Opportunistic Defense

Tom Brady only threw 2 interceptions throughout the 2016 regular season, but matched that number against the Houston Texans in the Divisional round of the AFC Playoffs. Meanwhile, the Steelers have won the turnover battle in both playoff games this postseason, and Ryan Shazier has registered an interception in his last four games.

No Gronk

Plain and simple, Rob Gronkowski is a difference maker, and a mismatch nightmare for any defense, especially Pittsburgh's. The absence of Gronk is noticeable, and it allows the defense to play a more aggressive style. The kind of style which has plagued the Patriots from time to time, like 2015-2016's AFC Championship game against the Denver Broncos.


WHY THE PATRIOTS WILL COVER

Richard Hill is the managing editor at Pats Pulpit. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @patspulpit and @PP_Rich_Hill.

Tom Brady has torched the Steelers defense

Brady has had a lot of success over the course of his Hall of Fame career, but he's always at his best when he faces the Pittsburgh Steelers. Brady owns a career 113.7 passer rating against the Steelers and Pittsburgh defensive scheme hasn't really changed over time. The Steelers defense is playing better now than they were earlier in the year, but Brady has easily beaten the Pittsburgh defense when they were playing like an All Time Great unit; this might be one of the weaker Pittsburgh defenses that Brady has ever faced.

Patriots are fantastic at home in the playoffs

New England owns 16-3 playoff record at home with Brady under center, with an average score of 28.2-17.8. When you factor in the regular season, the Patriots are 4-1 at home against the Steelers, with an average score of 31.4-22.4. The Patriots have no problem running up the points against Pittsburgh, while the No. 1 ranked New England defense should give the Steelers offense trouble.

The Steelers don't have enough depth on offense

Pittsburgh has the best wide receiver/running back combination in the NFL with Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell, there's no debate there. They combine for over 50 percent of the Steelers offensive production. But who are their top targets beyond those players? The Patriots defense thrives by removing the top options in the opposing offense, and forcing the depth players to decide the game. WR Eli Rogers ranked 3rd on the Steelers with 600 receiving yards; that would rank 6th on the Patriots in yards from scrimmage. The Patriots will be able to dominate the depth skill players on the Steelers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFC Conference Championship betting preview: Packers at Falcons

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-5, 60.5)

Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan are enjoying the rides of their lives, although one quarterback's impressive run will come to an unceremonious end at the other's expense. Rodgers has made good on his confident promise to run the table - and then some - as he powers the Green Bay Packers into Sunday's NFC Championship Game against the host Atlanta Falcons.

"I think he's played incredible," Packers coach Mike McCarthy told reporters of Rodgers, who has posted a 117.9 passer rating with 21 touchdowns and one interception during his eight-game winning streak. "Is he playing the best he ever has? He's played at this level so often, but I think this is probably one of his best runs." The 31-year-old Ryan (franchise-record 4,944 yards) hasn't been too shabby in his own right, throwing 14 scoring passes without an interception during Atlanta's five-game winning streak while his 117.1 passer rating this season was tops in the league and his 38 TDs trailed only Rodgers (40). Ryan's Falcons got the better of Rodgers' Packers in the first meeting of the season on Oct. 30, with Mohamed Sanu reeling in the quarterback's third touchdown pass with 31 seconds remaining in a 33-32 victory.

TV: 3:05 p.m. ET, FOX.

POWER RANKINGS: Packers (-4) - Falcons (-4.5) + home field (-3) = Falcons -3.5

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened as 4.5-home favorites and quickly dropped to 4 before returning to the original number and by mid-week was bet up to 5, where that number has held. The total hit the board at 61 and faded a full point to 60 Monday.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "This is currently the second highest total in NFL history and the highest total ever for a NFL playoff game. When these teams played earlier this season, the line was nearly ten points lower (O/U 51) and it easily soared Over that total with 65 combined points, including 43 points in the first half. Both teams played a very clean game with no turnovers." - Steve Merril.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: “Somewhat of a roller coaster ride of action for this matchup. We opened Atlanta -6 and within the first half hour had taken so many sharp bets on Green Bay that we dropped it to -4. It sat there for a day or so and then began creeping back up. We're back to the opener because during the last 48 hours we've seen an abundance of smart money on the Falcons, much like we did last week when they played Seattle. Spread handle is pretty even, but regarding the total, we have a ton of liability on the over.” - Scott Cooley.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome

INJURY REPORT:

Green Bay - WR Geronimo Allison (probable, hamstring), K Mason Crosby (probable, illness), WR Jeff Janis (probable, quadricep), LB Clay Matthews (probable, shoulder), WR Davante Adams (questionable, ankle), G T.J. Lang (questionable, foot), C JC Tretter (questionable, knee), RB James Starks (questionable, concussion), LB Jayrone Elliott (questionable, hand), CB Quinten Rollins (questionable, concussion), S Morgan Burnett (questionable, quadricep), WR Jordy Nelson (doubtful, ribs)

Atlanta - WR Taylor Gabriel (probable, foot), WR Julio Jones (probable, toe), DT Jonathan Babineaux (questionable, shoulder), S Keanu Neal (questionable, foot), De Adrian Clayborn (IR, bicep)

ABOUT THE PACKERS (12-6 SU, 11-6-1 ATS, 12-6 O/U): While Rodgers has been blistering hot, the two-time NFL MVP will need some wide receivers to reel in his passes as Jordy Nelson (ribs), Davante Adams (ankle) and undrafted rookie Geronimo Allison (hamstring) all are nursing injures. Nelson (NFL-best 14 receiving touchdowns) sat out Sunday's 34-31 victory over Dallas and is dealing with a combination of pain tolerance and medical clearance in his decision to play versus Atlanta. While Adams (career-best 76 catches, 997 yards and 12 TDs) won't practice before Sunday's pregame workout, Randall Cobb has gotten healthy with five touchdowns in his last five playoff games. "In the regular-season ... mindset, none of them would play," McCarthy said Thursday. "But obviously, this is a different time. This is a different point where we are in the season. Everybody understands where we are here."

ABOUT THE FALCONS (12-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS, 14-2-1 O/U): All-Pro wideout Julio Jones insists he expects to play in the NFC title game despite sitting out his second straight practice on Thursday. "I got a little snag," said Jones (NFL second-best 1,409 receiving yards), referring to aggravating a toe injury in Saturday's 36-20 victory over Seattle that has plagued him since Week 13. "And I was like, 'Well, let's go check it out.' It's fine. I'll be ready to go." Sanu had nine receptions for 84 yards to go along with his touchdown in the earlier contest versus the Packers while fellow wideout Taylor Gabriel also found the end zone in that tilt and has five TDs in his last seven games overall.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
* Packers are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
* Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games overall.
* Over is 9-0 in Falcons last 9 home games.
* Over is 11-0 in Falcons last 11 games on fieldturf.
* Underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The road underdog Green Bay Packers are picking up 65 percent of the point spread action and Over is grabbing 61 percent of the totals wagers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Packers (10-6) at Falcons (11-5)

Date: January 22, 2017 3:05 PM EDT

Defense wins championships.

That's the old adage. And it's about to be turned on its head by either the Green Bay Packers or Atlanta Falcons.

The Packers finished 21st in points allowed. The Falcons finished 27th. And yet, one of them will win the NFC Championship Game on Sunday in Atlanta.

The victor will be playing in Super Bowl LI, and it figures to be a battle of brilliant quarterbacks -- Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers -- who decide this one.

Behind Ryan, the Falcons scored 71 more points than any other team in the NFL. Ryan's 117.1 passer rating not only led the NFL, but was the fifth-best in NFL history. He threw for 4,944 yards with 38 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He topped 100 in passer rating in 12 of 16 regular-season games, then did it again against Seattle in the divisional round.

The Falcons enter the game on a five-game winning streak. Ryan has 14 touchdown passes and zero interceptions during the five-game streak.

"It's always a cool thing to watch when you see a good player go to a new spot," Falcons coach Dan Quinn said. "You guys have for sure seen it (with Rodgers). You know what it looks like, and Matt did that with his own game.

"It started way back in February in terms of his intent for the offseason, the way he was going to set it off. He had some things in his own game that he wanted to improve upon and, honestly, it carried over all the way through OTAs, into training camp."

Not to be outdone, Rodgers led the Packers to eight consecutive wins. Through the first quarter of the season, Rodgers ranked toward the bottom of the league in completion percentage (56.1) and yards per attempt (6.30). But he has been unstoppable as of late. During the winning streak, Rodgers has posted a 117.9 passer rating with 298.0 yards per game, 68.9 percent accuracy, 21 touchdowns and one interception. For the season, Rodgers threw for 4,428 yards with 40 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

"I think he's played incredible," Packers head coach Mike McCarthy said. "It's important for our team to play our best football come Sunday. He's in a great rhythm right now. Is he playing the best he ever has? He's played at this level so often, but I think this is probably one of his best runs."

Both teams will need huge efforts from their quarterbacks in what could turn into a shootout. They'll be attacking what are at times poor defenses. Green Bay finished 31st in pass defense. Atlanta wasn't much better at 26th. Both teams finished in the bottom fourth of the league on third down and in the red zone.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AFC Conference Championship betting preview: Steelers at Patriots

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-6, 50.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots are in familiar territory as they prepare to clash in Sunday night's AFC Championship Game at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. Both franchises are used to playing with the stakes so high -- the winner of the matchup will establish an NFL record by becoming the first team to advance to the Super Bowl for the ninth time.

Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has a pair of Super Bowl rings but knows the challenge presented by the Patriots, who beat Pittsburgh in the AFC title game after both the 2001 and 2004 regular seasons on their way to championships. "You are going up to the lion's den, the dragon's lair," Roethlisberger told reporters. "They are the dragon. We are trying to slay them. It doesn't matter who it is, but they are the gold standard." New England, the first team since the 1970 merger to advance to six consecutive conference championship games, won at Pittsburgh 27-16 in Week 7 - a game Roethlisberger missed due to injury. "I think the game earlier in the season is not really that relevant," said Patriots coach Bill Belichick, instead pointing to the Steelers' nine-game winning streak. "What the Steelers have done in the last 2 1/2 months is really what we're probably going to see Sunday night, and that's what we've got to be ready for."

TV: 6:40 p.m. ET, CBS.

POWER RANKINGS: Steelers (-5) - Patriots (-7) + home field (-3) = Patriots -5

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as 5.5-point home favorites and that line was bet up to 6 within the first hour and briefly faded back to the opening number before returning to 6. The total hit the board at 51 and was bet up to 51.5 before fading to 50.5 by the end of the week.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The AFC title game features the Killer B’s at their best - Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, Big Ben, Antonio Brown, LeVeon Bell… and Chris Boswell. Pats will rely on the fact that home teams in the playoffs that lost in a conference championship game the previous year are 38-4 SU and 30-11-1 ATS. The Steeler will bank on a 7-1-1 ATS mark as playoff road dogs, and a perfect 2-0 SUATS record in title game under Mike Tomlin. All killer stats, to say the least." - Marc Lawrence

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened the Patriots as 6 point favourites at home to the Steelers and took enough action on the Steelers to adjust the juice on the Patriots -6 (from -115 to even). we did eventually dip down to Patriots -5.5 with some sharp action coming in on the Steelers. We have since moved bak up to our opening number of Patriots -6(-110) with just over 55% of the action coming in on the Patriots." - Michael Stewart

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a typical January night for football at Gillete Stadium on Sunday night. Conditions are expected to be overcast with temperatures in the high-30’s at kick off and north northeast winds at 5-10 mph.

INJURY REPORT:

Pittsburgh - LB Vince Williams (probable, shoulder), LB James Harrison (probable, shoulder), K Chris Boswell (questionable, illness), S Sean Davis (questionable, shoulder), C B.J. Finney (questionable, illness), WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (questionable, illness), QB Zach Mettenberger (questionable, illness), DE Ricardo Mathews (questionable, ankle), LB Anthony Chickillo (questionable, ankle), RB Fitzgerald Toussaint (questionable, concussion), TE Ladarius Green (doubtful, concussion)

New England - DL Jabaal Sheard (probable, knee), WR Danny Amendola (probable, ankle), TE Martellus Bennett (probable, knee), WR Chris Hogan (probable, thigh), RB Brandon Bolden (questionable, knee), LB Dont’a Hightower (questionable, knee), QB Jacoby Brissett (questionable, thumb), CB Cyrus Jones (questionable, knee), WR Malcolm Mitchell (questionable, knee)

ABOUT THE STEELERS (13-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS, 6-12 O/U): Roethlisberger has one of the league's top receivers at his disposal, but Pittsburgh is centering its offense around running back Le'Veon Bell, who has set franchise playoff records in back-to-back games by rushing for 167 yards against Miami and 170 at Kansas City. Bell has rushed for at least 118 yards in seven of his last eight contests but was limited to 81 on 21 carries by New England while making 10 catches for 68 yards. Antonio Brown has racked up 481 receptions over the last four seasons, including seven for 106 yards in Week7, while going over 100 yards in both postseason wins. The defense has shown the most improvement for the Steelers, who have permitted an average of 16.6 points and registered 31 sacks during their winning streak.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (15-2 SU, 14-3 ATS, 7-10 O/U): After throwing for 28 touchdowns against only two interceptions, Tom Brady matched the latter total by getting picked off twice during a pedestrian performance in last week's 34-16 victory over Houston. Brady, though, routinely has carved up Pittsburgh's defense, throwing for 19 touchdowns and zero interceptions in the last six matchups, and for his career has 26 scoring passes versus three picks while posting a 9-2 record against the Steelers. Running back LeGarrette Blount rushed for 127 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the Week 7 meeting, but Dion Lewis did the bulk of the damage against Houston with three TDs - including one on a 98-yard kickoff return. The Patriots' defense led the league by surrendering 15.6 points during the regular season.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
* Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
* Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Conference Championships games.
* Over is 6-0 in Steelers last 6 Conference Championships games.
* Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 Conference Championships games.

CONSENSUS: The road underdog Pittsburgh Steelers are getting 55 percent of the action and the over is picking up 52 percent of the totals wagers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Steelers (11-5) at Patriots (14-2)

Date: January 22, 2017 6:40 PM EDT

Ben Roethlisberger waited 12 years for a playoff rematch with Tom Brady. It comes Sunday in the AFC Championship Game.

Roethlisberger, playing in the AFC Championship for the fifth time (3-1) in 13 years with the Pittsburgh Steelers, is back in the conference title game for the first time since 2010. He missed the regular-season game in October with a knee injury.

"You've got one game to get to the Super Bowl. You're going to the dragon's lair," Roethlisberger said, "and we're trying to slay the dragon."

Brady has blazed the Steelers for most of his career, including the 2004 AFC title game in Pittsburgh. Brady is 9-2 all-time against the Steelers with 26 touchdowns and three interceptions. Roethlisberger is sixth all-time with 13 playoff wins.

Brady's next Super Bowl ring would make five; Roethlisberger has two. Only Green Bay Packers quarterback Bart Starr has five league championships, all before the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.

"It's two old guys playing this game for a long time. He deserves all the credit he gets," Roethlisberger said. "I think this is more than just the two of us. We're not playing tennis. At the quarterback position you get used to it -- a lot of talk quarterback vs. quarterback. I know and I'm sure he knows it's bigger than us."

The Dolphins and Chiefs chose to take away big plays, dropping into deep zones to invite the Steelers to feed running back Le'Veon Bell.

Bell, who had 30 carries for 170 yards Sunday night at Kansas City, rushed for 1,268 yards in 12 regular-season games and became the centerpiece of Todd Haley's offense after returning from a four-game suspension. The Steelers had eight games with 100-plus yards, and Roethlisberger went to Bell at the start of the playoffs to prepare his running back to be a bell-cow in January.

"Ben obviously knows the things I do well," Bell said. "He came up to me, really told me to be the same player I was all year."

Bell, averaging 168.5 rushing yards this postseason, set a franchise record for rushing yards against Miami in the wild-card round, then broke it Sunday night at Arrowhead Stadium.

"What I'd hoped for and expected. He's a very special football player. He's rising up to the challenge," Roethlisberger said.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick felt the Steelers, who survived the divisional playoff with six field goals and no touchdowns, could have scored 40 points at Kansas City. Belichick is known for scheming to take away the best player on the opposing team. There's no doubt that player is Bell entering Sunday's game.

"He's really a hard guy to tackle. He's got good vision, great patience, and he does a good job," Belichick said. "Defensively he really forces you to be disciplined. You jump out of there too quickly then you open up gaps and open up space. Le'Veon has a great burst through the hole. He doesn't really need long to get through there, runs with good pad level. He's hard to tackle so if you don't get a full body on him then he'll run right through those arm tackles."

Bell can put pressure on any defense and is a gifted receiver. But earning the chance to play for a seventh Lombardi Trophy might come only if the Steelers can contain Brady.

Brady faced regular pressure from the Texans out of a 3-4 front, and New England needed three touchdowns from running back Dion Lewis -- one rushing, receiving and on a return -- to advance to the AFC Championship. Pittsburgh was only slightly above average against the run, allowing 100 yards per game, and ranked 16th in the NFL at 242.6 yards per game in the regular season.

"The way that they beat you, it's a full team effort," Steelers safety Mike Mitchell said. "For us, it's obviously going to be minimizing (Brady's) role and pressuring him. Houston did a pretty decent job getting pressure up the middle. Everyone pretty much knows that's the plan, but it's hard to execute it. He throws a good deep ball, he's very good at moving the safety, it requires a lot of discipline. We're going to have our hands full. This is the type of game you want to be in, this is the type of team you want to play against."

Brady and Belichick have four Super Bowl wins in six appearances with the Patriots. Brady began the season serving a four-game suspension for Deflategate but returned to the team at an MVP level. The 39-year-old had a 112.2 passer rating with 28 touchdowns and two interceptions in 12 regular-season games.

In the Patriots' 27-16 win Week 7 at Heinz Field, Brady was 19 of 26 for 222 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers.

Pittsburgh has won nine consecutive games since a 35-30 loss to the Cowboys on Nov. 13. That was the same date of the Patriots' last loss -- 31-24 to the Seattle Seahawks.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free NFL Picks: Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons Odds and Expert Predictions
by Alan Matthews

By most accounts, this has been the worst NFL Playoffs ever for various sportsbooks, be they of the Las Vegas brick-and-mortar variety or those offshore options listed here at Doc's. The books are 0-8 thus far. The public hammered the four favorites in the wild-card round, and they all won and covered easily.

Last week was more of a split but still a big win for bettors. The favored Patriots and Falcons on Saturday were bet heavy and they won and covered over the Texans and Seahawks, respectively. On Sunday, the heavy leans were on underdogs Green Bay in Dallas and Pittsburgh in Kansas City, and the Packers and Steelers won outright. In this space last week, I did recommend the Packers +4.5 and over the total of 52, so that was a double win.

So while the TV networks would have loved to see the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC Championship Game after their massive ratings in the divisional round against Green Bay, I'm not sure we could ask for a better matchup than Packers-Falcons this Sunday in what will be the final NFL game ever at the Georgia Dome. I suppose if you are one of those rare people who like 10-3 defensive slugfests then this won't be for you.

With all due respect to Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger over on the AFC side, the two best and hottest quarterbacks in the NFL right now are Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers. Ryan is almost a lock to win his first MVP trophy and is -825 to do so at 5Dimes, with the field at +475. Rodgers is either going to finish second or third behind Brady.

As I'm sure you know, different sportsbooks will have different spreads and totals on any given NFL game . Packers-Falcons has reached as high as 61.5 at some books. That's believed to be the highest NFL postseason total ever. The highest previous mark for a playoff game was 60 in 2012, when the Saints beat the Lions 45-28. The highest total for a regular-season game was 63 in 2000, when the Rams beat the 49ers 34-24.

Falcons are +260 to win the Super Bowl and the Packers are +375.

Packers at Falcons Betting Story Lines

Let's get to the key injury first. Packers No. 1 receiver Jordy Nelson, the NFL's regular-season leader in touchdown catches, didn't play in Dallas last week with broken ribs, and it's not looking like he will here. No surprise if you have ever had broken ribs. I would think, however, that Nelson will be ready to go for the Super Bowl should his team win Sunday.

Rodgers didn't miss Nelson a ton last week in throwing for 356 yards and two touchdowns in the 34-31 instant classic win over Dallas, the Packers' eighth straight victory. I'm sure I don't need to rehash frame-by-frame that absolutely ridiculous throw by Rodgers to Jared Cook in the final seconds to get the Packers into position to kick the winning field goal. That was easily the signature throw of Rodgers' career thus far and one of the best in postseason history, coming across his body and considering the situation. With the Cowboys having momentum, I would have favored them in overtime. Green Bay's last two playoff losses were in OT.

While receivers Davante Adams (five catches, 76 yards) and Randall Cobb (seven catches, 62 yards) had solid games, Rodgers no question looked much more to his tight ends with Nelson out. Cook was targeted a team-high 11 times and caught six passes for 104 yards and TD, while Richard Rodgers was targeted twice and caught one ball for a 34-yard TD. That latter score was on a Bonus Play after Dallas jumped offside. It was Rodgers' 13th career touchdown pass, including postseason games, when there's been a defensive offside penalty. The next-highest total since 2008, Rodgers' first year as a starter, is three. The Falcons' coaching staff is harping on not jumping offside this week.

The Falcons won their fifth straight game last Saturday, 36-20 over the Seahawks. Ryan improved to 2-4 in his playoff career by throwing for 338 yards and three touchdowns. He has 14 TD passes and no picks in the winning streak. Ryan hit eight different targets vs. Seattle. One concern would be that Julio Jones aggravated a toe injury and didn't finish the game, although he's obviously playing Sunday. Jones had six catches for 67 yards and TD. Green Bay's secondary is its weak link. Dez Bryant torched that group for nine catches for 132 yards and two scores last week.

I would say the Atlanta defense is better than the Cowboys', and it's certainly faster -- typically the starting lineup includes four rookies and three second-year players.. Rodgers was under pressure quite a bit last week and took some big hits, including one right before that amazing pass to Cook. Atlanta did lose end Adrian Clayborn (4.5 sacks this year) to a season-ending torn biceps vs. Seattle. The Seahawks couldn't run the ball at all, and I doubt Green Bay can, either, or even will try to much by the second half.

Packers at Falcons Betting Odds and Trends

Atlanta is a 5-point favorite (-110) with a total of 60.5. On the moneyline, the Falcons are -210 and the Packers +175. On the alternate lines, the Falcons are -6 (+103), -5.5 (-105), -4.5 (-115) and -4 (-123). Green Bay is 11-6-1 ATS this season (6-2-1 on road) and 12-6 "over/under" (7-2 on road). Atlanta is 11-6 ATS (4-5 at home) and 14-2-1 O/U (9-0 at home).

The Packers have covered four playoff road games in a row. They are 5-0 ATS in their past five vs. teams with a winning record. Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its past six following an ATS win. Atlanta is 8-3 ATS in its past 11 following a win. The Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their past seven playoff games. The over is 6-0 in Green Bay's past six games. It is 11-1-1 in Atlanta's past 13 vs. the NFC. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings.

Packers at Falcons Betting Prediction

If the regular-season matchup between these two is any indication, we are in for another classic. The Falcons won at home in Week 8, 33-32, on a Ryan 11-yard TD pass to Mohamed Sanu with just over 30 seconds left. Rodgers then could do nothing when the Packers took possession. I should note that Cobb and WR/RB Ty Montgomery were both out for Green Bay, as was top LB Clay Matthews. Rodgers still had four TD passes. Ryan had three. It was a really well-played game with no turnovers and nearly 700 yards of offense.

If the Falcons lose, it's presumably the final game as their offensive coordinator for Kyle Shanahan as he's expected to get the 49ers' top job. And I say it is. Can't go against Rodgers, even as good as Ryan has been. So take the points. I can't in good conscience recommend going over that big total, although I hope it's a shootout.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Expert NFL Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots Odds & Predictions
by Alan Matthews

Is this season's NFL final four field any good or what? We have future Hall of Fame quarterbacks in New England's Tom Brady, Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger and Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers. Those three have combined for seven Super Bowl titles, the most of any four conference championship starting QBs since the merger.

Perhaps Atlanta's Matt Ryan is a future Hall of Famer too, and he's only going to be this year's MVP. This will be the first conference championship weekend since 1998 in which all four starting quarterbacks are at least 30. Might be Brady's last at 39. He's in an 11th conference championship game, breaking a tie with Gene Upshaw and George Blanda for the most all-time at any position. Of course Brady is looking for his fifth Super Bowl ring, which would set a record for a quarterback and cement him as the greatest ever. Ditto Coach Bill Belichick.

Each team remaining is on at least a five-game winning streak. That's a first since the merger. Finally, this marks only the third time in the last 40 seasons that all four teams in the conference championships rank in the Top 10 in both scoring offense and total offense (1998, 1992). So while I'm sure fans of the Seahawks, Cowboys, Chiefs and Texans are still bummed about last week, this is the best possible final four we could ask for in terms of quarterback star power.

This is the 16th all-time conference championship game for the Steelers, who are 8-7 in them. It's their first since the 2010 season when they beat the New York Jets -- who had upset New England -- at Heinz Field. That Steelers team then lost the Super Bowl to Green Bay, Big Ben's lone SB loss in three trips.

The Patriots actually haven't been that good of late in the AFC title game in losing three of their past four. Two of those were in Denver, however. They were upset at home following the 2012 season by the Ravens and then probably should have lost to Baltimore after the 2014 season. New England is the +150 favorite to win Super Bowl LI in Houston with Pittsburgh the +425 long shot. The favored exact result at +260 is Patriots over Falcons. The longest shot is Packers over Steelers at +800.

New England already has opened as the betting favorite on early futures to win Super Bowl LII and the Pats apparently will keep both coordinators after OC Josh McDaniels pulled his name from the 49ers' head coaching search.

Steelers at Patriots Betting Story Lines

Mike Tomlin is one of the good-guy coaches in the NFL. It's a shame he's surrounded by knuckleheads. After the wild-card win over Miami, outside linebackers coach Joey Porter was arrested for being a drunken fool at a Pittsburgh bar. He was originally put on leave but was back with the team for last week's game in Kansas City. Then following last Sunday's 18-16 win over the Chiefs, as I'm sure you've seen by now, Steelers star WR Antonio Brown put himself on Facebook Live. One problem: Tomlin was giving a fairly profanity-laced post-game pep talk to his team and it was all caught on the streaming broadcast. Tomlin really didn't say anything bad, although he did refer to the Patriots as a**holes and how they had 36 hours extra time to rest up. Tomlin also could be heard reminding his players to keep a low profile this week, ironically. Tomlin got in front of that story this week and said Brown would be punished in-house. But not really the type of questions Tomlin, Brown or other players need to be answering all week. Brown has apologized profusely.

Pittsburgh won its ninth game in a row last week and was statistically dominant against the Chiefs but couldn't get into the end zone, settling for Chris Boswell's NFL playoff-record six field goals. Needless to say, that won't work in this game. Le'Veon Bell is just a monster right now as he set a team playoff record for rushing yards for a second straight week with 170. His 337 yards is the second-most in league history through two playoff games in one postseason (Broncos' Terrell Davis with 377 in 1998). While Bell is rolling, Roethlisberger continued his struggles away from home without a TD throw and a pick vs. K.C. He's completing just 59.9 percent of his passes for around 236 yards per game with nine TDs and nine picks away from home this season (including last week). All his home numbers are much, much better.

I took the Texans +16 last week in New England and the Patriots barely managed to cover in a 34-16 victory, although they definitely didn't look like the NFL's best team. Brady set a league record for touchdown-to-interception ratio during the season at 28:2 and it was just 2:2 in that game. I think he really missed Rob Gronkowski. To be fair, Houston's defense was No. 1 overall during the season. Dion Lewis saved the Patriots' bacon by becoming the first player with a rushing, receiving and kick-return touchdown in a playoff game in the Super Bowl era. The Texans did win time of possession and rushed for 105 yards despite having Brock Osweiler at QB, so that could be worrisome if I'm a Patriots fan.

Steelers at Patriots Betting Odds and Trends

New England is a 6-point favorite (-110) with a total of 50.5. On the moneyline, the Patriots are -235 and Steelers +195. Some alternate lines: Patriots -10.5 (+202), -7.5 (+147), Steelers +3.5 (+122). Pittsburgh is 11-6-1 against the spread (6-3 on road) and 6-12 "over/under" (2-7 on road). New England is 14-3 ATS (7-2 at home) and 7-10 O/U (5-4 at home).

The Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their past five on the road. They are 5-1 ATS in their past six after an ATS win. Pittsburgh is 1-3-2 ATS in its past six playoff road games. The Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their past six after a win. They are 4-1 ATS in their past five home playoff games. The under is 4-0-1 in the Steelers' past five playoff games. It's 8-3 in their past 11 vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 5-1 in the Pats' past six conference title games. The Steelers are 4-11 ATS in the past 15 meetings.

Steelers at Patriots Betting Prediction

Take very little from these teams' Week 7 meeting in Pittsburgh as Roethlisberger was out. New England won 27-16. LeGarrette Blount's five-yard TD run with 11:44 to go was the final scoring play. He had a monster game with 127 yards and two scores on 24 carries. Lewis was out injured then. Brady threw for 222 yards and two scores, one to Gronk. Landry Jones was expectedly shaky for the Steelers. Bell had 81 yards on 21 carries and 10 catches for 68 yards.

This is all coming down to Bell against the Patriots' No. 3 rush defense. He's probably looking at 35 touches between carries and receptions. Brown, meanwhile, has averaged 94.3 yards with three touchdowns in four career games against New England. Brady is 9-2 in his career vs. Pittsburgh and 4-0 at home with 15 TD passes and no picks. Roethlisberger is 3-6 in his career against the Patriots, with one of those wins coming against Matt Cassel.

It could be sloppy by kickoff with Sunday night temps in Foxboro forecast for a low of 23 and snow showers. Thus I'm really liking the under. Give the points. New England vs. Green Bay in the Super Bowl.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Championship Trends
By Marc Lawrence

History demands that Super Bowl winning teams ascribe to a major element that most others in the league do not – namely a Top 10-ranked defense. Given the fact that 41 of the 50 Super Bowl winners owned Top 10 overall ranked defenses, it appears this year’s race to the Super Bowl is a one horse race considering three of the four of the teams appearing in Sunday’s NFL Championship currently rank outside the Top 10 in overall total team defense.

Only the New England Patriots, who finished the regular season with the league’s 8th best defensive unit, make this year’s list.

Let’s see how all four teams stack up heading into this week’s Championship playoff round, and take a look at what’s worked and what hasn’t in conference Championship Games in the past.

SURPRISE, SUPRISE

Don’t be alarmed should a surprise or two happen not only in this year’s Championship Round but also in the Super Bowl 51 matchup as well.

According to our database, underdogs have managed to pull off upsets 16 times in 52 title games since the 1990 season, including the Denver Broncos over the New England Patriots last year.

In fact, the last three times a team has pulled a surprise in the Championship game they have gone on to capture the Super Bowl as well. The most recent being the aforementioned Broncos along with the Baltimore Ravens in 2013, and the New York Giants in 2012.

FYI: A total of 10 of the 16 Championship Game upset winners went on to capture the Super Bowl crown.

WE’RE BACK

The age-old adage “practice makes perfect” rings especially true for home teams in playoffs that were defeated in the Championship round the previous year.

That’s confirmed by the fact that these close-but-no-cigar squads are a jaw dropping 38-4 straight up and 30-11-1 against the spread as playoff hosts the following season since the 1981 season. And when these same teams find themselves favored by more than 4 points in title games they zoom to 34-1 SU and 26-8 ATS.

The Pittsburgh Steelers may be itching for a payback from the 27-16 loss they suffered at home – sans QB Ben Roethlisberger - against the Patriots on October 23 earlier this season. But that itching may be a bad case of poison ivy for Big Ben’s bunch this Sunday as the saying ‘be careful what you wish for’ may come back to haunt them.

BEEN THERE, DONE THAT

Three of the four head coaches playing this weekend own the luxury of having previously mentored teams in NFL Championship games – namely Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy, New England’s Bill Belichick, and Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin.

McCarthy stands 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in title games, while Belichick brings a 6-4 SU and 4-6 ATS slate in championship affairs into this week’s clash against the Steelers, including a paltry 1-6 ATS mark in the last seven games. Pittsburgh’s Tomlin sports a perfect 2-0 both SU and ATS mark in AFC championship tilts, while Atlanta Falcons head coach Dan Quinn leads his troops to his first appearance in a title game.

GRAVITY ALERT

While high-scoring games are the norm in the NFL these days, teams arriving to the championship round off a high-scoring effort in their last game tend to crash back to earth in a hurry.

Consider: Only 18 teams of the 34 teams who scored 36 or more points in a divisional round victory have gone on to advance to the Super Bowl since 1981. Those same teams are just 10-23-1 ATS in Championship games, including 5-17-1 ATS since 1992. And only four of those teams managed to top 30 points in these games.

That would look to put the Falcons on hard ground this Sunday.

DUELING ARMS

Sunday will mark the ninth time in which New England QB Tom Brady will oppose Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger in their NFL careers. The Pats have bested the Steelers six times in those games, while going 5-2-1 ATS, including 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS in Foxborough.

Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has squared off six times against Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, going 3-3 both SU and ATS. The visiting team is 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS those games

TWO-MINUTE HANDICAP

All playoff trends date to 1980, unless otherwise noted:

Green Bay at Atlanta:

Packers – 5-3 SU and 7-1 ATS as visitors in the playoffs since 2011; 7-14 ATS versus NFC South opponents under McCarthy.

Falcons – 2-4 SU and 0-5-1 ATS at home against NFC North foes since 2011; favorites are 10-23 in Atlanta’s games behind Dan Quinn.

Pittsburgh at New England:

Steelers – 7-1-1 ATS last nine games as away underdog in the playoffs; 2-5 SU and 2-4-1 ATS last seven visits to New England including 0-3 SU/ATS when Pats own .666 or greater record.

Patriots – 13th AFC title game since 1970 (16th for Pittsburgh in the same span); QB Brady is 15-3 SU at home in the playoffs, including 8-0 SU against .722 or better opponents.

STAT OF THE WEEK

NFL home favorites are 20-36-6 ATS after facing Pete Carroll’s Seattle Seahawks, including 1-7 ATS from Game 14 out. (Atlanta)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Conference championship games

Packers (12-6) @ Falcons (12-5)— Green Bay won its last eight games; they were underdogs in three of the eight games. Packers are 2-2 on artificial turf this season- all four of those games were in domes. Only way #2 seeds play conference final at home is if #1 seed loses its first playoff game; since 1997, #2 seeds playing conference final at home are 2-7, 0-3 in NFC (Steelers got both wins). Green Bay lost 33-32 at Atlanta back in Week 8, during midst of Packers’ defensive funk; TY was 367-331 Falcons in game Green Bay led 24-19 at half- it was Falcons’ first win in last five games vs Packers, who won playoff game 48-21 here in 2010. Atlanta won its last five games, scoring 38.4 pts/game. Last six Packer games went over total- over is 14-2-1 in Atlanta games this season.

Steelers (13-5) @ Patriots (15-2)— Since 2004, #1 seeds are 5-0 in conference title games (4-1 vs spread) when facing a #3 or worse seed, who didn’t get first round bye. Home team won AFC title game nine of last ten years; Patriots are 2-3 in this game last five years- they’re 4-1 in AFC title games at home under Belichick. Steelers won their last nine games; they’re 1-1 as an underdog this year. Patriots are 7-2 at home, 7-2 as a home favorite; they’re 12-1 with Brady at QB, with only loss to the Seahawks. New England won last three series games, by 24-7-11 points; they beat Steelers 27-16 in Week 7, in game Roethlisberger sat out, making it mostly irrelevant. Pitt lost four of last five visits here, with last win in ’08. Under is 10-4 in last 14 Steeler games, 5-3 in Patriots’ last eight games.

Packers @ Falcons (-5, 61)
Steelers @ Patriots (-6, 51)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Sunday
By Mike Dempsey

There were few surprises at the Eclipse Awards on Saturday night, with California Chrome taking down hardware both for top Older Male and Horse of the Year honors.

It was the second Horse of the Year title for the Art Sherman trainee, who won the award in 2014 for his three-year-old campaign that included winning the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1).

His 2016 was nearly perfect, winning seven of his eight starts, his lone loss coming in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at the hands of the brilliant three-year-old Arrogate.

California Chrome had an abbreviated 2015 campaign, making just two starts and then battling minor injuries that kept him on the sidelines.

He came back with a vengeance in 2016, reeling off six victories in a row including Grade 1 wins in the Dubai World Cup, Pacific Classic and Awesome Again.

His final career start will come on Saturday when he takes on Arrogate in the $12 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) at Gulfstream Park.

The five-year-old has already earned a record $14,502,650 by winning 16 of his 26 career starts. A win on Saturday would bring in another $7 million before he hits the breeding shed.

Arrogate won for the top three-year-old thanks to victories in the Travers (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic. He was just a maiden winner after the Triple Crown had been completed.

Beholder took down her fourth Eclipse Award by winning for top Older Female, her year capped off by beating Songbird in a thrilling edition of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1).

The 2016 Eclipse Award Winners:
Horse of the Year: California Chrome
3-year-old male: Arrogate
3-year-old female: Songbird
Older male: California Chrome
2-year-old male: Classic Empire
2-year-old female: Champagne Room
Older female: Beholder
Male turf: Flintshire
Female turf: Tepin
Male sprinter: Drefong
Female sprinter: Finest City
Steeplechase horse: Rawnaq
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Apprentice jockey: Luis Ocasio
Owner: Juddmonte Farms, Inc.
Breeder: WinStar Farm LLC


Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Clm $6,250N2L (12:00 ET)
#6 Dero D 2-1
#7 Nacho Giant 5-1
#8 Bonnie Boy Hunter 6-1
#2 Kimchi's Strike 9-2

Analysis: Dero D is back on dirt here after stalking the early pace and weakening to finish seventh last out against $16,000 non-winners of two on turf. The top pair came out of the race to win next out, the winner Imperial Warrior beating $16,000 non-winners of three on Jan. 4. The gelding was a good second here two back at a mile on the main track. The Cibelli barn is 19% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to dirt.

Nacho Giant dueled for the early lead and weakened to finish fourth last out at 16-1 at this level. He failed to fire two back in his first start against winners but looks like he may be back on track. He broke his maiden three back for a $10,000 tag at GP Wet going seven furlongs.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 2,6,7,8
TRI: 6,7 / 2,6,7,8 / 1,2,6,7,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 8 Md Sp Wt (3:32 ET)
#3 Adorable Miss 4-1
#9 Run Blondie Run 3-1
#7 Abbreviate 6-1
#1 Danceland 10-1

Analysis: Adorable Miss is a $155,000 Keeneland purchase making her debut for the Pletcher barn that is 18% winners with first time starters. The filly is by Kitten's Joy out of a Mineshaft mare that has dropped two foals to race including turf stakes winner Noble Beauty ($162,100). Solid looking works on the morning tab and she debuts with lasix.

Run Blondie Run had a rough trip last out in a third-place finish (placed second via a DQ) at Aqueduct going a mile. She lost all momentum when a foe came in on her just inside the final furlong. Three foes have exited that race to win next out. She is a half to dirt stakes winner Dunkin Bend ($193,517).

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 3,9 / 1,3,7,9
TRI: 3,9 / 1,3,7,9 / 1,3,6,7,9

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 The Interborough (3:50 ET)
#6 Clothes Fall Off 8-5
#4 Hot City Girl 7-5
#7 Takrees 4-1
#2 Disco Chick 8-1

Analysis: Clothes Fall Off makes her first start since last April for the McLaughlin barn. This gal won the Correction on the inner track two back and then faded to finish eighth in the Madison (G1) before hitting the bench. The trainer said she just needed some time off and there was no injury. She has run well in all three starts on the inner track and drilled a bullet work on Jan. 14 for her return.

Hot City Girl set the early fractions and weakened to finish third last out in the Willa On The Move at Laurel Park in her first start off a four-month layoff. She trounced state breds in the Union Ave. two back at the Spa and in '15 won the Safely Kept and was a good second in the La Brea (G1). She should be tighter second off the bench for the Rice barn.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 2,4,6,7
TRI: 4,6 / 2,4,6,7 / 1,2,4,6,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R5: #1 Bella Sunrise 12-1
R5: #4 Two Step Blues 8-1
R6: #6 Flyingtobechilders 8-1
R7: #6 Big Twist 20-1
R8: #1 Danceland 10-1
R9: #9 Kelly Tough 10-1
R11: #6 Diplomatic Shaft 8-1
R11: #1 Factorial 10-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Spot Plays

For Sunday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (3rd) Motown Sound, 7-2
(6th) H Man, 7-2


Fair Grounds (2nd) Starlight Express, 9-2
(8th) Honey Bunny, 4-1


Golden Gate Fields (3rd) Dench, 3-1
(7th) Keihl Crissia, 8-1


Gulfstream Park (6th) Starship Frontier, 6-1
(11th) Formula One, 7-2


Laurel Park (8th) L X Sunrise, 5-1
(9th) Let’s Wrap It Up, 7-2


Oaklawn Park (2nd) First Splash, 7-2
(8th) We Be Stormin, 6-1


Santa Anita (3rd) Anatolian Heat, 3-1
(6th) Magic Taste, 5-1


Sunland Park (6th) Sassy Who, 7-2
(8th) He’s a Knockout, 7-2


Tampa Bay Downs (3rd) Augusto B, 4-1
(5th) Ides of Marchann, 6-1


Turf Paradise (6th) Charming Gold, 5-1
(7th) Rob’s Golden Touch, 5-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday’s eight-pack

Eight golfers who have shot 59 on the PGA Tour:

— Al Geiberger

— Chip Beck

— David Duval

— Paul Goydos

— Stuart Appleby

— Jim Furyk

— Justin Thomas

— Adam Hadwin.