Sunday 1/22/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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NBA

Sunday’s games

Golden State won its last six games with Orlando (4-2 vs spread); they won last three visits to central Florida by 13-15-16 points. Warriors won last six games overall (5-1 vs spread); they’re 3-6 in last nine games as a road underdog. Five of their last six games stayed under. Orlando lost seven of last nine games, is 2-8 as a home underdog. Four of last five Magic games went over the total.

Lakers lost last ten games with Dallas, covering one of last six; LA lost by 8-4-34 points in last three visits here. Under is 6-2 in last eight series games. Los Angeles lost five of last six games overall, is 1-11 in its last 12 true road games, 0-4 in last four games as a road underdog. Under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Mavericks lost three of last four home games, are 1-1 as home favorites. Under is 3-1 in their last four home games.

Suns won five of last seven games with Toronto, covering all seven games; teams split last four series games played here. Over is 5-2 in last seven series games. Suns won in New York last night; they lost four of last six games but covered six of last eight- they’re 4-3 vs spread in last seven road games. Raptors lost last two games but won/covered four of last five at home. Over is 6-2 in last eight Toronto games.

Denver won its last five games with Minnesota (4-1 vs spread); they won/covered last five visits to Twin Cities, in series where road team won seven of last nine series games. Under is 5-2 in last seven series games. Nuggets won four of last five games, are 9-7 as road underdogs. Over is 9-1 in their last ten games. Minnesota won four of last six games, covered six of last seven; they’re 5-4 as home favorites. Under is 8-4-1 in their last 13 games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Georgetown Hoyas (10-9) at Xavier Musketeers (13-5)

Date: January 22, 2017 2:00 PM EDT

CINCINNATI -- The Xavier Musketeers are hoping to put a tumultuous two weeks behind them and get back on the winning track.

Following three straight losses and the departure of senior guard Myles Davis from the program, the 20th-ranked Musketeers will host the Georgetown Hoyas on Sunday afternoon at Cintas Center.

Xavier (13-5, 3-3 in the Big East) has lost three straight games for the first time since the 2013-14 season, losing to No. 1 Villanova, No. 13 Butler, and No. 7 Creighton.

It was considered the toughest three-game stretch in program history, but that didn't make the losses any easier to take.

"People are going to throw dirt on our grave, but I can't worry about that," Xavier head coach Chris Mack said.

Davis returned from a 15-game suspension following an offseason incident with his ex-girlfriend and scored two points in three games while going 0-for-8 from the field.

On Friday, Davis announced via social media that he was leaving the team.

"Myles and I met this morning," said Mack in a statement Friday. "As Myles stated, he has left our basketball program. He and his family have asked for privacy and can share more information if they see fit."

Davis was a key contributor to last year's team, which won 28 games and earned a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Davis was the Musketeers' third-leading scorer and led the team in assists.

With more than two-thirds of the Big East Conference slate left to play, there's plenty of time for Xavier to right the ship. But, it needs to start against the struggling Hoyas, who have lost five of seven games.

To win Sunday, Georgetown (10-9, 1-5) needs another big performance from junior guard A.J. Peak, who scored 21 points in an 81-76 loss to Xavier on New Year's Eve at the Verizon Center.

Peak was named the Big East player of the week this past week after averaging 18.5 points in wins over UConn and St. John's.

The Hoyas can ill afford to have another dismal shooting night on Sunday at Cintas Center. They shot only 32.7 percent and went 5-of-23 from 3-point range in a 74-56 loss to Providence on Monday.

"I think we got a little discouraged when a few offensive possessions didn't go our way," Georgetown coach John Thompson III said. "We let one end of the court affect the other."

One of Xavier's big concerns coming into this season was rebounding, especially after losing big men James Farr and Jalen Reynolds.

However, that hasn't been among the issues for the Musketeers who lead the Big East and rank 20th nationally in rebounding margin. In Monday's loss at Creighton, Rashid Gaston had a career-high 17 boards.

On the flip-side, Xavier has committed 47 turnovers over the last three games, including 17 on Monday which led to 17 Bluejays' points in a five-point loss.

Then there's the Musketeers' physical condition. Point guard Edmond Sumner has been playing despite a shoulder issue but is expected to be fine for Sunday.

Several other players missed practice at various points this week because of illness.

Xavier leads the series 10-4, including wins in five of the last six meetings. The Musketeers are 6-2 against the Hoyas since the teams became Big East rivals.

 

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NFL Injury Report

Conference Championships Injury Report

GREEN BAY PACKERS at ATLANTA FALCONS
GREEN BAY PACKERS
--Out: RB James Starks (concussion), C J.C. Tretter (knee)
--Questionable: WR Davante Adams (ankle), WR Geronimo Allison (hamstring), S Morgan Burnett (quadricep), WR Jordy Nelson (ribs, illness), CB Quinten Rollins (neck, concussion)
ATLANTA FALCONS
No players listed

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
--Questionable: TE Ladarius Green (concussion, illness), LB James Harrison (shoulder, triceps), RB Fitzgerald Toussaint (concussion)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
--Questionable: WR Danny Amendola (ankle), TE Martellus Bennett (knee), RB Brandon Bolden (knee), LB Dont'a Hightower (shoulder), WR Chris Hogan (thigh), WR Malcolm Mitchell (knee), DE Jabaal Sheard (knee).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Conference Championship odds hit the board with a flurry of action
By PATRICK EVERSON

We’re heading into conference championship week in the NFL playoffs, with one No. 1 seed intact and the other No. 1 already undone. We talk about the opening lines for next weekend’s matchups with Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sports at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-4)

Green Bay sent the top-seeded Dallas Cowboys home from the playoffs in a hurry, though in a thrilling game. The Packers (12-6 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) got out to a 21-3 lead, then squeaked out of Big D with a 34-31 victory as a 5.5-point underdog. Aaron Rodgers led two late field-goal drives, sandwiched around a Cowboys field goal that tied the game at 31 with 35 seconds left.

That was just enough time for Rodgers to work his magic, and Mason Crosby hit a 51-yarder as time expired to send the Pack to the NFC Championship Game. Fourth-seeded Green Bay will ride an eight-game SU win streak – and 7-1 ATS – into Atlanta.

The second-seeded Falcons (12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS) had no trouble dispatching No. 3 seed Seattle on Saturday night, coasting 36-20 as a 6.5-point home favorite. Matt Ryan and Co. have won five in a row (4-1 ATS) and six of their last seven.

“A lot of people think the line on the Atlanta game is too high,” Kornegay said, though he noted there was an early burst and then a drawdown with the line. “We opened -4, and the market moved to -5.5, then back to -4.”

The Superbook’s opener of 60 on the total prompted Kornegay to say, “I can’t remember a higher total.”

These two teams met in the regular season, on Oct. 30, when Atlanta eked out a 33-32 home win laying 3 points. Sunday’s NFC title tilt kicks off at 3:05 p.m. Eastern.


Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-4.5)

Pittsburgh is as hot as any of the remaining playoff teams, having peeled off nine consecutive victories while going 7-1-1 ATS. In Sunday’s AFC divisional playoff at No. 2 seed Kansas City, the third-seeded Steelers couldn’t score a single touchdown, but six field goals proved just enough in an 18-16 victory as a 2.5-point underdog. Mike Tomlin’s troops improved to 13-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS.

New England (15-2 SU, 14-3 ATS) led just 17-13 at halftime of Saturday’s divisional contest against Houston, and Tom Brady threw an uncharacteristic two interceptions, one in each half. But the top-seeded Patriots ended up rolling to a 34-16 win as a 16-point home fave. Bill Belichick’s squad is on an 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS run as it prepares to host the AFC final, at 6:40 p.m. Eastern Sunday.

“The New England line was easy to make, and we almost had a consensus at -4.5,” Kornegay said, while adding that number got bet through 5 and up to 5.5 shortly after the Superbook posted the line late Sunday night. “But those are dead numbers to go through. The market moved up, but we expect it to come back, just like the Falcons line.”

Had Kansas City advanced to face New England, Kornegay said it would have been tough to draw two-way action.

“We can expect the public to lean on Green Bay and maybe split on the AFC Championship Game. That will help us,” Kornegay said. “If Kansas City would have won, it would have been all New England money.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AFC Championship Notes

AFC Championship (CBS, 6:40 p.m. ET)
Pittsburgh (13-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) at New England (15-2 SU, 14-3 ATS)

Line Movement: The MGM Mirage Sportsbook opened New England at 5 1/2 with a total sent out at 50 1/2.

Pittsburgh Road Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS
New England Home Record: 7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Steelers host the Patriots back in Week 7, but it's difficult to glean much from that result. The Patriots picked up a 27-16 victory, but they also had the luxury of facing the Steelers without starting QB Ben Roethlisberger, as he missed that game due to a knee injury. In addition, Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski starred in that game with 93 yards and a touchdown, but he is done for the season.

As far as the guys who did play, Patriots QB Tom Brady threw for 222 yards and two touchdowns, RB Le'Veon Bell totalted 149 yards from scrimmage on 31 total touches and WR Antonio Brown posted a game-high 106 yards. The game featured two lost fumbles by the Patriots, and New England was able to pick off backup QB Landry Jones once. There were also zero sacks by both sides.

The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the past 14 meetings between these teams, with the Steelers going 4-11 ATS in the past 15 in the series.

These teams will meet in the AFC Championship Game for the third time, and the first time since 2004. It's also the first meeting at Gillette Stadium between the two combatants in a title game. New England won both the 2001 and 2004 AFC Championship Games against Pittsburgh, and they're 3-1 in four all-time postseason meetings against the Steelers.

Brady owns a 9-2 career record against the Steelers, and he has thrown for 3,148 yards, 26 touchdowns and just three interceptions, and his passer rating against the Steelers is higher than against any other opponent (min. five starts). Over his past six starts against Pittsburgh he has a passer rating in excess of 100, and the last time the Steelers picked him off in a game came way back in 2005. Brady also owns a 5-1 record against head coach Mike Tomlin, posting 19 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in those six outings. One of the reasons for Brady's success has been tremendous pass protection, as the Steelers have just eight sacks in their past six meetings.

Playoff Notes: The Steelers stomped the Miami Dolphins in the Wild Card on Jan. 8 by a 30-12 score, covering an 11-point number at home. They also posted an 18-16 road victory against the Kansas City Chiefs, as PK Chris Boswell set an NFL postseason record with six field goals. The 'under' has connected in each of their two playoff games so far. Roethlisberger is 0-1 in his career against the Patriots in the playoffs, but he owns a 13-6 record as a starter in the postseason, including 5-2 on the road. The Steelers haven't been terribly success in recent seasons, however, going just 3-4 SU in their past seven playoff outings. Pittsburgh is also averaging just 19.8 PPG over their past five playoff games while yielding 22.4 PPG over their past seven postseason appearances.

The Steelers are 2-0-2 ATS in their past four playoff games, but just 1-3-2 ATS in their past six on the road in the postseason. The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their past five playoff games, and 4-1 ATS in their past five postseason games at Gillette Stadium, but they're 1-6 ATS in their past seven in the AFC Championship Game.

Total Notes: The 'under' was 5-2 in the final seven regular season games for the Patriots, and 4-4 in eight regular season home games. However, the 'over' hit in their 34-16 Divisional Round win over the Texans, as they covered a 16-point number. The 'over' is 6-1 in New England's past seven home games, with an 'under' result last taking place Jan. 20, 2013 against Baltimore. It has been since Jan. 20, 2008, when the 'under' cashed in a New England home playoff game against an opponent other than the Ravens.

The 'under' is 7-1 in Pittsburgh's past eight games on the road including the postseason and regular season. The 'under' is also 4-0-1 in Pittsburgh's past five playoff appearances, including 3-0 in their past three on the road.

AFC Championship Notes: The favorite is 5-3 ATS over the past eight AFC title games, although the underdog is 3-2 ATS over the past five. The 'under' has hit in five in a row to follow up a 6-1 run of 'over' results. New England is just 1-2 SU/ATS in its past three AFC Championship Games at home, and 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS over the past five title game appearances overall. Pittsburgh returns to the game for the first time since 2011 when they topped the N.Y. Jets, also cashing as favorites. Pittsburgh is 3-0 SU/ATS in its past three trips to the AFC title game.

AFC Championship (1970-2015)
2015-16 New England at Denver New England -3 (45) Denver 20 New England 18 Underdog-Under
2014-15 Indianapolis at New England New England -7 (52.5) New England 45 Indianapolis 7 Favorite-Under
2013-14 New England at Denver Denver -5 (57) Denver 26 New England 16 Favorite-Under
2012-13 Baltimore at New England New England -8 (49.5) Baltimore 28 New England 13 Underdog-Under
2011-12 Baltimore at New England New England -7 (49) New England 23 Baltimore 20 Underdog-Under
2010-11 N.Y. Jets at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh -4 (38) Pittsburgh 24 N.Y. Jets 19 Favorite-Over
2009-10 N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis Indianapolis -8 (40) Indianapolis 30 N.Y. Jets 17 Favorite-Over
2008-09 Baltimore at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh -6 (35) Pittsburgh 23 Baltimore 14 Favorite-Over
2007-08 San Diego at New England New England -14 (48) New England 21 San Diego 12 Underdog-Under
2006-07 New England at Indianapolis Indianapolis -3.5 (47) Indianapolis 38 New England 34 Favorite-Over
2005-06 Pittsburgh at Denver Denver -3 (41) Pittsburgh 34 Denver 17 Underdog-Over
2004-05 New England at Pittsburgh New England -3 (35) New England 41 Pittsburgh 27 Favorite-Over
2003-04 Indianapolis at New England New England -3 (43) New England 24 Indianapolis 14 Favorite-Under
2002-03 Tennessee at Oakland Oakland -8 (47) Oakland 41 Tennessee 24 Favorite-Over
2001-02 New England at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh -10 (37) New England 24 Pittsburgh 17 Underdog-Over
2000-01 Baltimore at Oakland Oakland -6 (36.5) Baltimore 16 Oakland 3 Underdog-Under
1999-00 Tennessee at Jacksonville Jacksonville -7 (40.5) Tennessee 33 Jacksonville 14 Underdog-Over
1998-99 N.Y. Jets at Denver Denver -9 (51.5) Denver 23 N.Y. Jets 10 Favorite-Under
1997-98 Denver at Pittsburgh Denver -2.5 (41) Denver 24 Pittsburgh 21 Favorite-Over
1996-97 Jacksonville at New England New England -7 (44) New England 20 Jacksonville 6 Favorite-Under
1995-96 Indianapolis at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh -12 (41) Pittsburgh 20 Indianapolis 16 Underdog-Under
1994-95 San Diego at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh -9 (35) San Diego 17 Pittsburgh 13 Underdog-Under
1993-94 Kansas City at Buffalo Buffalo -3 (38) Buffalo 30 Kansas City 13 Favorite-Under
1992-93 Buffalo at Miami Buffalo -2 (41) Buffalo 29 Miami 10 Favorite-Under
1991-92 Denver at Buffalo Buffalo -11 (45) Buffalo 10 Denver 7 Underdog-Under
1990-91 L.A. Raiders at Buffalo Buffalo -7 (37) Buffalo 51 L.A. Raiders 3 Favorite-Over
1989-90 Cleveland at Denver Denver -3.5 (40) Denver 37 Cleveland 21 Favorite-Over
1988-89 Buffalo at Cincinnati Cincinnati -4 (40.5) Cincinnati 21 Buffalo 10 Favorite-Under
1987-88 Cleveland at Denver Denver -2.5 (44.5) Denver 38 Cleveland 33 Favorite-Over
1986-87 Denver at Cleveland Cleveland -3 (38) Denver 23 Cleveland 20 Underdog-Over
1985-86 New England at Miami Miami -5.5 New England 31 Miami 14 Underdog
1984-85 Pittsburgh at Miami Miami -9.5 Miami 45 Pittsburgh 28 Favorite
1983-84 Seattle at L.A. Raiders L.A. Raiders -7.5 L.A. Raiders 30 Seattle 14 Favorite
1982-83 N.Y. Jets at Miami Miami -2 Miami 14 N.Y. Jets 0 Favorite
1981-82 San Diego at Cincinnati Cincinnati -4.5 Cincinnati 27 San Diego 7 Favorite
1980-81 Oakland at San Diego Oakland +4 Oakland 34 San Diego 27 Underdog
1979-80 Houston at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh -9.5 Pittsburgh 27 Houston 13 Favorite
1978-79 Houston at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh -7 Pittsburgh 34 Houston 7 Favorite
1977-78 Oakland at Denver Denver -3.5 Denver 20 Oakland 17 Underdog
1976-77 Pittsburgh at Oakland Pittsburgh -4.5 Oakland 24 Pittsburgh 7 Underdog
1975-76 Oakland at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh -6 Pittsburgh 16 Oakland 10 Push
1974-75 Pittsburgh at Oakland Oakland -5.5 Pittsburgh 24 Oakland 13 Underdog
1973-74 Oakland at Miami Miami -6.5 Miami 27 Oakland 10 Favorite
1972-73 Miami at Pittsburgh Miami -2.5 Miami 21 Pittsburgh 17 Favorite
1971-72 Baltimore at Miami Miami -1.5 Miami 21 Baltimore 0 Favorite
1970-71 Oakland at Baltimore Oakland -1 Baltimroe 27 Oakland 17 Underdog

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFC Championship Notes

NFC Championship (FOX, 3:05 p.m. ET)
Green Bay (12-6 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) at Atlanta (12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS)

Line Movement: The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Atlanta -4 and the number jumped as high as 5 ½ but settled back down to the opener. The total was sent out at 58 ½ and moved up quickly before finally settling between 60 and 61. CRIS, a major offshore betting shop, opened Atlanta -5 with a total of 60 1/2. As of late Sunday, they’re holding the Falcons -4 (-115) with a total of 60.

Green Bay Road Record: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS
Atlanta Home Record: 6-3 SU, 6-4 ATS

Head-to-Head: These teams met in Week 8 from Atlanta and the Falcons came away with a 33-32 decision but failed to cover as three-point home favorites. Green Bay led 24-19 at halftime and held a 32-26 lead late in the fourth quarter before Atlanta answered with a 75-yard game-winning touchdown drive that ended with an 11-yard passing score from quarterback Matt Ryan. There were no turnovers in the game that saw seven passing touchdowns, three from Ryan and four from Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers.

Despite losing the first regular season meeting, Rodgers has gone 4-2 in his career versus the Falcons and that includes a 48-21 victory in the 2010 playoffs at Atlanta when he completed 31-of-36 passes for 366 yards and three touchdowns. Ryan is 3-3 in his career against Green Bay, one of the wins coming against a Packers team that didn’t have Rodgers in the lineup.

Playoff Notes: Including last week’s 34-31 win over Dallas, the Packers are now 10-6 in the playoffs with Rodgers at QB. He’s gone 6-4 in games away from home in the postseason and three of the losses came in overtime. Atlanta improved to 2-4 in the postseason with Ryan under center after the team defeated Seattle 36-20 last Saturday in the Divisional Playoff round. While the quarterback has taken some heat in his career, the four playoff losses came against opponents that went onto the Super Bowl and two of them captured the title with one of them being Green Bay in the 2010 edition.

Total Notes: According to handicapper Marc Lawrence and his archives, the highest NFL postseason total came in 2012 when New Orleans defeated Detroit 45-28 and the game went 'over' (59.5). While this will likely go down as the highest postseason total you’ll ever see, it’s deserving of the number and it’s hard to argue for the ‘under’ in this spot. Atlanta has watched the ‘over’ go 9-0 at the Georgia Dome this season behind the league’s top scoring offense at 33.9 points per game. Green Bay has watched the ‘over’ go 7-2 on the road and it enters this game on a 6-0 run to the high side behind an offense averaging 34.8 PPG in its last six.

The Falcons have seen the 'over' go 5-1 in six playoff games with Ryan at quarterback, which includes a 4-0 mark in Atlanta. The offense averaged 28.5 PPG in those games. Green Bay has seen the 'over' go 7-3 in 10 road playoff games with Rodgers at QB and the club has never been held under 20 points during this span.

NFC Championship Notes: The favorite has gone 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread in the last four NFC title games. Green Bay is 1-1 in its last two trips to the title game, losing in 2014 at Seattle and defeating Chicago in the 2010 playoffs. The Falcons made a trip to the 2012 NFC Championship and dropped a 28-24 decision to San Francisco from the Georgia Dome. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the last four NFC title games.

NFC Championship (1970-2015)
Year Matchup Line Score ATS Result
2015-16 Arizona at Carolina Carolina (-3) (47) Carolina 49 Arizona 15 Favorite-Over
2014-15 Green Bay at Seattle Seattle -8.5 (45) Seattle 28 Green Bay 22 (OT) Underdog-Over
2013-14 San Francisco at Seattle Seattle -3.5 (40.5) Seattle 23 San Francisco 17 Favorite-Under
2012-13 San Francisco at Atlanta San Francisco -3.5 (48) San Francisco 28 Atlanta 24 Favorite-Over
2011-12 N.Y. Giants at San Francisco San Francisco -2 (40.5) N.Y. Giants 20 San Francisco 17 (OT) Underdog-Under
2010-11 Green Bay at Chicago Green Bay -3.5 (42) Green Bay 21 Chicago 14 Favorite-Under
2009-10 Minnesota at New Orleans New Orleans -4 (54) New Orleans 31 Minnesota 28 (OT) Underdog-Over
2008-09 Philadelphia at Arizona Philadelphia -3.5 (47) Arizona 32 Philadelphia 25 Underdog-Over
2007-08 N.Y. Giants at Green Bay Green Bay -8 (41) N.Y. Giants 23 Green Bay 20 (OT) Underdog-Over
2006-07 New Orleans at Chicago Chicago -2.5 (42.5) Chicago 34 New Orleans 14 Favorite-Over
2005-06 Carolina at Seattle Seattle -3.5 (43.5) Seattle 34 Carolina 14 Favorite-Over
2004-05 Atlanta at Philadelphia Philadelphia -5.5 (37.5) Philadelphia 27 Atlanta 10 Favorite-Under
2003-04 Carolina at Philadelphia Philadelphia -4 (36.5) Carolina 14 Philadelphia 3 Underdog-Under
2002-03 Tampa Bay at Philadelphia Philadelphia -4 (34) Tampa Bay 27 Philadelphia 10 Underdog-Under
2001-02 Philadelphia at St. Louis St. Louis -10.5 (49) St. Louis 29 Philadelphia 24 Underdog-Over
2000-01 Minnesota at N.Y. Giants N.Y. Giants -2.5 (42) N.Y. Giants 41 Minnesota Favorite-Under
1999-00 Tampa Bay at St. Louis St. Louis -14.5 (44) St. Louis 11 Tampa Bay 6 Underdog-Under
1998-99 Atlanta at Minnesota Minnesota -10.5 (55) Atlanta 30 Minnesota 27 (OT) Underdog-Over
1997-98 Green Bay at San Francisco Green Bay -2.5 (44) Green Bay 23 San Francisco 10 Favorite-Under
1996-97 Carolina at Green Bay Green Bay -12.5 (38) Green Bay 30 Carolina 13 Favorite-Over
1995-96 Green Bay at Dallas Dallas -8.5 (50) Dallas 38 Green Bay 27 Favorite-Over
1994-95 Dallas at San Francisco San Francisco -7.5 (48) San Francisco 38 Dallas 28 Favorite-Over
1993-94 San Francisco at Dallas Dallas -3 (47.5) Dallas 38 San Francisco 21 Favorite-Over
1992-93 Dallas at San Francisco San Francisco -4 (37) Dallas 30 San Francisco 20 Underdog-Over
1991-92 Detroit at Washington Washington -13 (43) Washington 41 Detroit 10 Favorite-Over
1990-91 N.Y. Giants at San Francisco San Francisco -8 (37) N.Y. Giants 15 San Francisco 10 Underdog-Under
1989-90 L.A. Rams at San Francisco San Francisco -7 (46) San Francisco 30 L.A. Rams 3 Favorite-Under
1988-89 San Francisco at Chicago Chicago -1 (34.5) San Francisco 28 Chicago 3 Underdog-Under
1987-88 Minnesota at Washington Washington -3.5 (45) Washington 17 Minnesota 10 Favorite-Under
1986-87 Washington at N.Y. Giants N.Y. Giants -7.5 N.Y. Giants 17 Washington 0 Favorite
1985-86 L.A. Rams at Chicago Chicago -10.5 Chicago 24 L.A. Rams 0 Favorite
1984-85 Chicago at San Francisco San Francisco -9 San Francisco 23 Chicago 0 Favorite
1983-84 San Francisco at Washington Washington -10.5 Washington 24 San Francisco 21 Underdog
1982-83 Dallas at Washington Dallas -2 Washington 31 Dallas 17 Underdog
1981-82 Dallas at San Francisco San Francisco -3 San Francisco 28 Dallas 27 Underdog
1980-81 Dallas at Philadelphia Dallas -1 Philadelphia 20 Dallas 7 Underdog
1979-80 L.A. Rams at Tampa Bay L.A. Rams -3.5 L.A. Rams 9 Tampa Bay 0 Favorite
1978-79 Dallas at L.A. Rams Dallas -3.5 Dallas 28 L.A. Rams 0 Favorite
1977-78 Minnesota at Dallas Dallas -11.5 Dallas 23 Minnesota 6 Favorite
1976-77 L.A. Rams at Minnesota Minnesota -4.5 Minnesota 24 L.A. Rams 13 Favorite
1975-76 Dallas at L.A. Rams L.A. Rams -6 Dallas 37 L.A. Rams 7 Underdog
1974-75 L.A. Rams at Minnesota Minnesota -4 Minnesota 14 L.A. Rams 10 Push
1973-74 Minnesota at Dallas Dallas -1 Minnesota 27 Dallas 10 Underdog
1972-73 Dallas at Washington Washington -3 Washington 26 Dallas 3 Favorite
1971-72 San Francisco at Dallas Dallas -7.5 Dallas 14 San Francisco 3 Favorite
1970-71 Dallas at San Francisco San Francisco -4 Dallas 17 San Francisco 10 Underdog

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Six ways NFL Championship Sunday is better than Super Bowl Sunday
By JASON LOGAN

The world comes to a screeching halt for one Sunday in February: Super Bowl Sunday. But, while the Big Game may come with all the glitz and glam, football bettors can find all that and more - and a little less - in the NFL Conference Championship Games. Jason Logan explains.

Everyone knows about March Madness. But not everyone pays attention to the conference tournaments the week before the Big Dance.

The same goes for the Super Bowl. Everyone and their dog watches the Big Game – even if you’re not a follower of football – but not everyone takes in the conference championship games that precede the Super Bowl.

For sports bettors, going against the public grain is often times the path to profits. And, much like finding more betting enjoyment wagering on college basketball’s conference tournaments than the NCAA tournament, NFL bettors may gravitate toward the conference championships rather than living and dying for the Super Bowl.

Sure, Super Bowl has all the pageantry and hoopla surrounding it but when it comes to turning a profit and having a little fun while doing it, NFL Conference Championship Sunday takes the cake.

Here are six reasons why NFL Championship Sunday is better than Super Bowl Sunday:

TWO GAMES, MAN

The basic math says NFL Championship Sunday is twice as good as Sunday Bowl Sunday. The fact that there are two games means more options for sports bettors, but it also serves as a safety net – or merciless pit of quicksand with rusty razorblades at the bottom – for football bettors.

With kickoffs at 3:05 p.m. ET and 6:40 p.m. ET Sunday, Championship Sunday offers those bettors coming off losing wagers in the first game a chance to redeem themselves – the infamous “Get Even, or Get Even Deeper” late game.

While plenty of money will be wagered on the early game – Green Bay at Atlanta – a lot of that action will funnel into the late game – Pittsburgh at New England - with winners looking to double up and losers trying to save their shirts.

Some people like the Divisional Round or Wild-Card Weekend, due to the fact there are four games on the slate. But I find NFL Championship Sunday has the perfect balance between big-game buzz and betting options.

SMALLER CROWDS

Try finding a nice seat to watch the Super Bowl on Feb. 5. If you’re in Las Vegas, you better have called ahead – and by ahead we mean like six months ago.

Sportsbooks and sports bars are packed to the gills on Super Sunday, which means simple tasks like taking a pee or getting a refill on your beer will take at least 10 minutes. And those luxuries may not come with a clear view of a TV.

A few years ago, my kid and I took in a matinee NBA game on NFL Championship Sunday and then casually walked into a sports bar following the basketball game and got a premium seat in a booth, right in front of the TV midway through the second quarter of the early kickoff (Yeah, I take my kids to bars. WHAT?!).

Try something like that on Super Bowl Sunday and you’ll find reserved seats on the frozen sidewalk, scanning through the window at a sea of warm drunken faces just to get a glimpse of the 9 a.m. pregame show.

The smaller crowds also translate to the sportsbook on NFL Championship Sunday. This weekend will be a busy day for bookmakers in Nevada, but you won’t need to camp out for a spot in line like you’re trying to get Rolling Stones farewell tour tickets.

Waiting until minutes before kickoff to place your bet is always a little risky, even on a regular NFL Sunday, but you can wait out line moves and grab the spread you want late on Championship Sunday – something that Super Sunday just doesn’t allow.

Depending on where you wager in the Silver State (and if you don't have a mobile account on the go), be prepared to stand in line like the DMV to get down on the Big Game – well ahead of kickoff.

NO BYE WEEK

The bye week before Super Bowl is the Christmas Eve of sports betting: a painfully long period to wait before the grand finale, that always seems longer than time and space will allow.

And for what? The extra week between conference title games and Super Bowl Sunday is more time to second guess your handicapping, twist your brain around the media machine’s bullshit, and cloud your judgement on what is – when stripped down – just another football game.

You don’t have to deal with that crap during NFL Championship Sunday. The odds hit the board immediately following the Divisional Round matchups and whether you jumped on the early numbers or you’re waiting it out, those lines have one week – and one week only – to move around before game time.

Plus, nothing is worse than having that free Sunday before the Super Bowl. The downstairs toilet that you’ve abused and neglected all football season, yeah, your wife wants you to give it a good clean because she knows you’ve got nothing better to do.

“Make it a real ‘super bowl’”, she says with a smile.

Could be worse. You could watch the Pro Bowl…

BETTER LINE VALUE

NFL odds this time of the year are tighter than that Roger Goodell’s butthole every time a player is carted off with a concussion. However, finding an edge in the conference title odds is easier than finding the same value with the Super Bowl numbers.

Books don’t need to drastically move the odds for the Super Bowl so quickly because they have two weeks to try and even out the action and they know the majority of money is going to come on Saturday and Sunday. So, if you’re waiting for the Big Game spread or total to budge a week and a half before game day, you may want to bring a book or better yet write one – you’ll have some open space on your daily planner.

The lines for the conference championships are a little more liberal. Books and bettors have a good idea of what these teams are made of at this point in the postseason, but you'll see more movement, more often simply because of the limited window of time. You’ll get those half-point hiccups that make the difference between winning and losing bets at this time of the season.

NO HALFTIME SHOW

If you’re like me, halftime is a chance to get some shit done before the game picks up again.

Gotta poo? Dump out during halftime.

Want some nachos? Bake them bad boys during the break.

Got some household chores to tend to? Take out the trash or toss a load of laundry in while the teams take a breather.

The lack of a must-see halftime spectacular during the conference championships allows football bettors to multitask. Lay some second-half lines while also giving yourself a little break from the action. Clear your head. Acknowledge the existence of your kids for the first time today.

Super Bowl Sunday, on the other hand, is a relentless heavyweight of entertainment that keeps you glued to your seat with haymaker after haymaker, even when the teams aren’t even on the field. Besides the onslaught of great commercials and blockbuster movie trailers, the halftime show itself is something you just can’t risk missing. Especially this year.

What if I get up to put out a grease fire in my kitchen and Lady Gaga's boob pops out? And don’t say it doesn’t happen, because we all know it does…

MODERATE MEDIA BLITZ/NO NON-FOOTBALL FANS

Working in sports media can leave you with a Super Bowl hangover well before game day. I recall my days as a content editor on shift work, watching the news wires in the two weeks before a Super Bowl many moons ago.

The stories were interesting in the first week before the game, but quickly deteriorated in quality and topic as the game drew closer. By the time Friday rolled around, reporters were filing in-depth profiles on the kickers and long snappers. At that point, I just wanted the Super Bowl to be over with so I could once again sleep at night.

Even if you’re not in sports media, the two-week ramp up to the big game - that builds ever so slowly like a Rush song - is a lot to digest. The ESPNs and Fox Sports of the industry are constantly cranking out content like some infinite Play-Doh Mop Top Hair Shop, and then you have the non-sports hacks taking their best swing at an entertaining twist on the Big Game: "Twenty dollars for a hot dog?! That’s a great deal! Ha Ha Ha!” BARF!

And while we’re on the subject of Super Bowl newbies, how about those people your girlfriend invited over from her work to your Super Bowl party. The ones who’ve never sat through an entire football game in their lives and thought they should announce that upon arrival, like they're doing something sooooo daring for the first time.

I haven’t had my first prostate exam yet but I’m sure as hell not going to blab all over the waiting room about it when the time comes to bend over and take a deep breath.

Oh, and there’s always this guy, usually some random girl’s boyfriend who decided it would be ironically insulting to sports fans everywhere to wear a shirt and skinny tie to your “Super Bowl Soiree”. This guy doesn’t exist during Championship Sunday. He’s off rock climbing or buying old vinyl records at a flea market. I hate this guy…

Don't get me wrong. As a football fan, I love Super Bowl Sunday (more so when my Dallas Cowboys get to play in it). It's just behind Christmas and Halloween in the holiday pecking order at my house (Sorry, Easter). But, as a sports bettor, NFL Championship Sunday seems made for me.

Are you in the same boat? Is NFL Championship Sunday the real “Super Sunday”?

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFC Championship Game features highest playoff betting total on record
By ROB HANSEN

Sunday's NFC Championship Game will feature two of the hottest offensive units in all of football, the Green Bay Packers and the Atlanta Falcons. It's been said that defense wins championships - but these two teams beg to differ.

As soon as the possibility presented itself, sports bettors had no choice but to daydream about the possibility of hitting an easy Over with Aaron Rodgers going toe-to-toe with Matt Ryan with a trip to Super Bowl 51 on the line. Well, as it turns out, the oddsmakers had similar dreams.

While Rodgers was slinging bullets down the sidelines to tiptoeing tight ends and Mason Crosby was knuckling 50+ yard field goals to beat the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium, oddsmakers were scrambling to get odds on the board for the showdown at the Georgia Dome - and they certainly did not disappoint.

As expected, the Falcons opened as 4 to 4.5-point favorites, but the real highlight came with the release of the total. A staggering 60 was the first Over/Under figure to hit the board in Las Vegas.

“I can’t remember a higher total,” said Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sports at the Westgate LV Superbook.

As the dust settled on an exciting evening of playoff football, and most of us nestled into bed for the night, Over bettors decided this was their time to strike. And by Monday morning, the lofty total of 60 was bet up a full point to its current number of 61.

Mr. Kornegay, from the Superbook, may not remember a higher NFL total - but our stats database never forgets. While we still have many days before we get a closing number for the NFC Championship Game, the current number of 61 would be the second highest betting total ever recorded in our records (complete data back to 1985).

The highest total was a Week 9 game between the St. Louis Rams and the San Francisco 49ers back in the 2000-2001 season that was pegged with a 61.5. On that afternoon at 3Com Park in San Francisco, "The Greatest Show on Turf" defeated the Niners, 34-24, failing to cash for Over bettors.

When narrowing the search to include only NFL playoff games we discover the highest betting total on record was a 59.5 between the Detroit Lions and the New Orleans Saints during Wild-Card Week back in the 2011-12 season. The two teams combined for 73 points in a 45-28 victory by the Saints and cashed Over tickets with a furious 28-point fourth quarter.

It's difficult to predict where the number for the Packers and the Falcons will end up by Sunday afternoon. We can be pretty confident that it will end up as the highest total in NFL playoff history and, if Over bettors hit it hard enough, it could get a bump and end up as the highest Over/Under figure we've ever seen for an NFL game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wiseguys are advising that these NFL Conference Championship lines are going to move
By AAA SPORTS

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Game to bet on now

Pittsburgh at New England (-6)

If you want to catch the Patriots napping, probably the last thing you might want to do is call them A-holes, like Mike Tomlin did after his Steelers’ victory at Kansas City on Sunday. Kind of hard to crawl out of that hole if you want to avoid riling up the team that you have already lost to this season.

Whether "A-hole-gate" has any sticking power and provides New England with any emotional firepower this coming Sunday is uncertain, but what is certain is that both teams will be searching for their offenses in this one. Pittsburgh somehow survived in KC without once finding the end zone, and in Foxboro the Patriots and Tom Brady (two interceptions) had more trouble than expected moving the ball against the Texans. NE’s late-October win at Pittsburgh can be disregarded because of the absence of Ben Roethlisberger, but the Patriots did hold down Le’Veon Bell (81 yards).

If you think that the Pats’ spotty performance vs. Houston was a hiccup and NE is ready to roll again against an average Pittsburgh defense, you might want to lay the points now before heavy wagering affects the line or vig when we get closer to kickoff.

Game to wait on

Green Bay at Atlanta (-4)

There appears to be no obstacle too great for Green Bay to overcome. If the Packers need six wins in a row to get into the playoffs, they get them. Playoff victory over a Giants team that had owned the Packers? No problem. Go on the road and beat the rested Cowboys? Child’s play. Given that, it looks like Aaron Rodgers & Co. should be more than ready for Sunday’s NFC title game – even though they have to again play on the road against a top-level team.

Oddsmakers installed the Falcons as a 5-point favorite, but gamblers – no doubt impressed by GB’s take-down of the Cowboys in Dallas (the Packers were 5-point dogs in that one) – scoffed at that. Packers money spoke loud and clear, and books were forced to drop the line to 4, which is the current consensus.

Might be worth hanging on a bit to see if a second wave of wagering affects the line as the weekend nears.

Total to watch

Green Bay at Atlanta (60)

Total players must be choking at this line, but there is some reason for it. Two high-scoring teams at the top of their games, perfect temperature in a dome, suspect defenses, the best QBs in the conference – all the elements will be in play.

But 60 (the number was actually bet up after a 59.5 open)? That means scoring touchdowns and not settling for field goals, it means at least a few turnovers and short fields, it means neither team emphasizing the run, it means at least a couple of PI penalties on long passes. Lots of things have to happen - and just might.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Conference Championship edition
By MONTY ANDREWS

Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule, and the playoffs are no different.

Here are the biggest betting mismatches for the NFL Conference Championship Games:

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-5, 61)

Packers' red-zone dominance vs. Falcons' shoddy TD prevention

Oddsmakers know an offensive maelstrom when they see it - and this weekend's NFC Championship Game between the Packers and the Falcons has all the makings of a touchdown-laden classic, with a total sitting in the low-60s as of Wednesday. Both teams have rolled through the last two months of the season largely on the strength of their impressive offensive attacks - and as you'll read below, both will look to exploit significant mismatches in hopes of reaching the Super Bowl in Houston on Feb. 5.

The Packers have done a lot of things right in their incredible run to the conference championship, but their red-zone performance has been among the most impressive. The Aaron Rodgers-led offense has converted a whopping 90.9 percent of its red-zone visits into touchdowns over the past three games, moving the team above 63 percent for the season - a top-10 showing league-wide. The Packers' 63.9% road conversion rate ranks sixth in the NFL.

The Falcons are deserving opponents, but they didn't get here because of their elite red-zone defense. Atlanta has allowed foes to convert red-zone trips into six points more than 70 percent of the time so far this season; only the playoff-averse Los Angeles Rams performed worse. And Atlanta's 71.0-percent rate at the Georgia Dome is the worst in the league - yes, even worse than the aforementioned Rams. If Green Bay gets into the red zone at will, it could be a long day for the Atlanta defense.

Atlanta's elite home pass attack vs. Green Bay's porous road D

On the flip side, the Falcons humbled just about every defense that came into the Georgia Dome during the regular season, and did the same against the Seattle Seahawks in their divisional round tilt. Matt Ryan has surged his way into MVP talks with a sensational 2016 campaign that has seen Atlanta average better than 35 points per game in its own stadium - and that could spell serious trouble for a Green Bay defense that couldn't do much of anything on the road.

The Falcons led the NFL in home scoring by better than four points over the runner-up New Orleans Saints, and that's mostly thanks to Ryan. The veteran signal caller helped Atlanta post an absurd 120.0 team passer rating at home; no other team finished higher than 109.8. And Ryan has saved his best for late in the season, posting a 130.5 rating over his last three games. It's a stunning turnaround from last season, when the Falcons' passer rating was a dismal 87.8.

Atlanta's conference championship matchup couldn't have been better from a pass defense perspective. Green Bay allowed a higher passer rating on the road (108.8) than any team in football, a major reason why the team finished 25th overall in passer rating against (94.8). Dak Prescott's 103.2 rating in last week's divisional round game will do little to quell concerns among Packers fans that this team isn't equipped to slow Ryan down - especially in familiar surroundings.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-5.5, 50.5)

Steelers' third-down D trouble vs. Pats' clutch offense

The AFC Championship features two quarterbacks who are rather comfortable in the spotlight: New England Patriots legend Tom Brady will be seeking his seventh trip to the Super Bowl, while Pittsburgh veteran Ben Roethlisberger is looking to reach his fourth career title game. But for Big Ben and the Steelers to get to the big game, they'll need to overcome a pair of mismatches that has the Patriots in the driver's seat according to oddsmakers.

It starts with third-down defense, where Pittsburgh has struggled for most of the season. The Steelers have allowed teams to extend drives on third down more than 40 percent of the time, ranking them 23rd in the league; that rate jumps to 42.1 percent over Pittsburgh's last three games - and while the Steelers did well to contain Kansas City's third-down efforts last week (2-for-9), the Chiefs aren't exactly an offensive power, having converted just 37.4 percent of third downs on the year.

Things are about to get a whole lot tougher for Pittsburgh in that regard. Brady and the Patriots rank fourth in the NFL in third-down conversion rate (45.2 percent), a significant improvement over 2015 (39.7). And to no one's surprise, New England has been even more proficient down the stretch, converting third downs at a 52.3-percent clip over its last three games. If the Steelers don't find a way to force punts, they'll be watching the Super Bowl from the couch.

Pittsburgh's penalty problems vs. New England's elite discipline

There's little doubt that the Steelers have the offensive components to keep up with the Patriots on the scoreboard, even at hostile Gillette Stadium. But Pittsburgh will need to find a way to remain composed even if things aren't going its way; not only do the Steelers rank as one of the most penalized teams in the league this season, they're matched up against a New England team that showed impressive discipline en route to another sensational campaign.

The Steelers come into this one having racked up the sixth-most accepted penalties in the league (122), resulting in the fourth-most accepted penalty yards (1,181). They reached double-digit infractions three times during the regular season, including their previous meeting with the Patriots, when they were flagged 10 times for 85 yards. Even more discouraging: a season-high seven of those penalties came on the offensive end, resulting in 55 total yards lost.

By comparison, the Patriots have had just 98 accepted flags against in 2016; only four teams had fewer, and three of those teams have played one fewer game than New England. The Patriots' 869 accepted penalty yards is also bottom-10 in the league, and more than 300 fewer than their conference championship opponent. New England had just four penalties for 40 yards in the regular-season win over Pittsburgh - and if the gap is just as big this weekend, the Steelers will have an even bigger hill to climb.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Opening Line Report - Title Games
By Marcus DiNitto

Next Sunday’s conference championship games feature two of the NFL’s most public teams as underdogs, which may create betting value on the favorites. But with an historically-high total in the NFC title tilt, let’s start there with our opening line report.

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook hung 58.5 as its original over/under for Packers at Falcons, but that number didn’t last long, as the oddsmakers moved along with the market. That meant making an already huge total ever larger.

“We put up 58.5, thinking that probably would be high, and then we saw it come a little bit higher (offshore) and move in that direction, so we said, ‘we’ll go with it,’” Westgate manager Ed Salmons said Sunday night. “I mean, there are no numbers for these Packers-Falcons game to keep them ‘under.’ The first time they played (Oct. 30 in Atlanta) it was 33-32 (Falcons).”

The Falcons, in fact, are 14-2-1 to the ‘over’ this season, including Saturday’s 36-20 win against Seattle in the divisional round that flew ‘over’ the 51.5. The ‘over’ has cashed in 10 of the Packers’ last 12 games, including the most recent six.

Totals as large as next Sunday’s number are seldom seen in the league. There are only a few in history that have been higher.

-- According to Pro Football Reference, the highest-ever total for an NFL playoff game was 60 for the Lions at Saints in 2012. It went ‘over’ in New Orleans’ 45-28 win.

-- The highest total for any game in NFL history is 63 for the Rams-49ers in 2000. That game stayed ‘under’ with the Rams winning 34-24.

-- A 31-30 win by the Raiders over the Chiefs on Christmas Day in 2004 went over the total of 60.

The Packers-Falcons over/under price is “warranted based on what you see,” Salmons said. “Atlanta plays a high-tempo game and with Green Bay you’ve got all the ingredients to be a crazy high-scoring game.”

Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology, had a different take. He agreed with the notion that the number is artificially high because of anticipated ‘over’ money from the public.

“I don’t necessarily think it’s justified,” Simbal said of the lofty total. “We were saying today, ‘What fan that’s been betting all these games and winning is going to bet ‘under’ in that game?’ They’re going to bet ‘over’ or they’re not going to bet it. The Falcons score 30 points a game, so they’re not going to bet the ‘under’. So we figured we’d open it pretty high, but the sharps thought it was too high.”

CG opened the total 60 and when the book moved with the market to 61 , respected money showed up on the ‘under’, prompting a move back in the other direction.

“When we got to 61, they bet it ‘under’ and they were pretty sizable bets, and that’s why we moved it down to 59.5,” Simbal said.

While public bettors tend to bet ‘over’, they get gun shy with totals this high, according to Salmons. But, with the way these playoffs are going, they may not be able to resist.

“The rule of thumb in the past is the public will back away from favorites in the NFL when they’re higher than 14 (or when totals get to a certain threshold), and we’ve never had a total this high that I can remember in a playoff game. But they were laying the Patriots (Saturday night vs. the Texans) like 16.5 was 6.5, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they bet it ‘over’. It wouldn’t surprise me if it moved up.”

By Monday morning, CG was dealing 59.5 for the total, while the Westgate was at 60 and Stations Casinos was at the high end of the market at 61.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 59.5), Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET

The Westgate on Sunday night opened Atlanta -4 vs. Green Bay and moved to -4.5 after the first bet came on the favorite. The shop then adjusted with the market up to -5.5, but settled back to -4 later in the evening, Salmons said.

CG opened -4 and stood pat, booking two-way action at that price.

The Falcons went off at -6.5 vs. the Seahawks in Saturday night’s divisional playoff game, making the conference championship line against the Packers feel light. Thank the public nature of the Packers for that. According to CG’s power ratings, the Falcons are a theoretical 5.8-point favorite in this spot. The book went with a lower number because it is anticipating the public backing underdog Green Bay on the money line, Simbal said.

“I think you’re going to end up getting people who want to play Green Bay playing the money line at (about) +160,” he added. “I don’t think they’ll bother taking the 4 very much.”

Salmons said of public sentiment influencing this line, “If you reversed the team names and you made the Packers the Falcons and the Falcons the Packers, the line would probably be 7 or 7.5.”

Still, wiseguys weren’t interested early in the Falcons at -4, according to Simbal.

Green Bay cashed as the 3-point underdog in the Oct. 30 meeting between these teams, the aforementioned 33-32 win by Atlanta.


Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-5.5, 51), Sunday, 6:35 p.m. ET

At CG Technology, the Patriots opened -5.5 vs. the Steelers in the AFC championship game, a number cheap enough to draw early sharp action on the favorite. The book took at a $4,000 bet and two $3,000 bets on New England on Sunday night, while only smaller, $200-type wagers came in on the dog.

According to CG’s power ratings, New England should be -6.5 or -7 at home vs. Pitt, Simbal said.

This game could be the rare sharps vs. public spot where the sharps are laying the points and the public is backing the dog.

“I figure the public to be on Pittsburgh here,” Simbal said. “They’re going to be on both dogs I think, money line specifically. We’re trying to hold back (on moving the line higher) because of that.”

But Salmons, whose shops opened New England -4.5 and moved with the market to -5.5, wouldn’t be surprised to see this spread grow to -6.5.

“It’s not going to take much (for that to happen),” he said. “It’s more than a field goal and less than a touchdown.”

He added, “I think we’ll get really good two-way action on this game. Next to Green Bay, Pittsburgh as an underdog is very popular.”

While these teams met Oct. 23, it’s a tough comparison to make, since Landry Jones was in for an injured Ben Roethlisberger. For what it’s worth, the Pats covered as 7.5-point road favorites in a 27-16 win but were outgained by the Steelers, 375-362.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Conference Championship'

We’re down to the 'Final Four' in the NFL's Super Bowl Tournament with three of the contestants ridding impressive winning streaks.

In the NFC Championship which highlight's Sunday's early game, the red-hot Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay Packers on an 8-0 (7-1 ATS) streak after upending top-seeded Cowboys take on Atlanta Falcons who defeating Seahawks 36-20 as -6.5 point favorites in the division round.

In the late one at Gillette Stadium, the New England Patriots putting away Texans' 35-16 in the division round as -16.0 point faves square off against Pittsburgh Steelers advancing with a 18-16 victory over Chiefs cashing as +2.5 point underdogs. In this one, the Patriots enter ridding an 8-0 (7-1 ATS) streak with Steelers heading to Foxboro racking up nine consecutive victoties with a profitable 7-1-1 record at the betting window.

When handicapping these 'Put-Up' or 'Go-Home' games there are a couple of interesting betting trends that you should be aware of. During the past 15 years home teams in the Championship round are 15-15 ATS with 19 'Over', 10 'Under', 1 Push. Splitting numbers by conference, NFC home teams are 6-9 ATS, 10-4-1 O/U, the AFC home troops 9-6 ATS, 9-6 O/U.

Our trusted database also chips in these betting nuggets:

- Home favorite off 14 or more point div round win (Falcons, Patriots) 2-9 ATS
- Road Dogs off 3 or less point div round win (Packers, Steelers) 3-5 ATS

- Patriots 1-4 ATS skid in Conf Champ games
- Patriots 4-1 ATS this year -6.0 to -7.5 point faves
- Patriots leagues top money-maker 14-3 ATS
- Patriots 5-4 O/U home this year
- Patriots 6-1 ATS stretch vs AFC North
- Patriots 8-1 ATS vs team off B-2-B SU/ATS wins

- Steelers 3-2 ATS Conf Champ games
- Steelers 1-3-2 ATS L6 playoff road games
- Steelers 6-3 ATS away this year
- Steelers 2-7 O/U on road this year
Steelers 1-3-1 ATS L5 in Foxboro

- Falcons 0-2 ATS skid Conf Champ games
- Falcons 3-5 ATS home faves this year
- Falcons 9-0 O/U home this year
- Falcons 1-7 ATS Home fave vs Team off Win
- Falcons 0-5 ATS after playing Seahawks

- Packers 2-0 ATS Conf Champ games
- Packers 5-0 ATS L5 playoff games.
- Packers 3-1 ATS road dogs
- Packers 7-2 O/U away this year
- Packers 4-1 ATS L5 in Atlanta

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Falcons Open at –4 Versus Packers'

Offense has ruled the NFL playoffs thus far, and the league’s top two offenses will clash this Sunday (3:05 p.m. ET, FOX) when the Green Bay Packers visit the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta opened as a 4-point favorite and drew enough early action to move the juice from –105 to –115 at press time.

When these same two teams met in Week 8, it was the Falcons (12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS) winning 33-32 on a last-minute touchdown pass from Matt Ryan to Mohamed Sanu. Green Bay (12-6 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) still cashed in as a 3-point road dog. That was the start of a four-game losing streak for the Packers, but they’ve won all eight of their games since at 7-1 ATS. Atlanta has won five in a row at 4-1 ATS.

Ryan is the heavy favorite to win this year’s MVP award at –1000, but Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is second at +500, and Green Bay’s offense has driven the OVER to the pay window in each of the last six games. The OVER is also 14-2-1 for the Falcons this year, including 6-0-1 since their Week 11 bye. Expect a gigantic total for Sunday’s Conference Championships.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Patriots Favored by 6 Over Red-Hot Steelers'

The Pittsburgh Steelers have captured the attention of bettors with nine straight wins at 7-1-1 ATS. But they’ll face their toughest challenge of the season this Sunday (6:40 PM ET, CBS) when they visit the New England Patriots in the Conference Championships. The Patriots are 6-point favorites at press time with a total of 51.

New England (15-2 SU, 14-3 ATS) is also on a tear, winning eight in a row at 7-1 ATS and covering some big spreads along the way – none bigger than the 17 points they were laying in last week’s 34-16 Divisional Round victory over the Houston Texans. The Patriots escaped that game mostly intact; WR Malcolm Mitchell remains iffy for this week after sitting against Houston with a knee injury.

The Steelers (13-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) didn’t have any new names on their injury list after squeaking past the Kansas City Chiefs 18-16 last week as 1-point road dogs. But their chances for Sunday will improve if TE Ladarius Green makes it out of concussion protocol in time to face New England. The weather forecast calls for overcast skies over Foxborough at kick-off with temperatures in the low 40s.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five essential betting stats for NFL Conference Championship Sunday
By ROB HANSEN

When looking for essential and historical betting stats, the first order of business is usually to identify something unique or eye-opening about each matchup. Well, there are plenty of interesting angles heading into Conference Championship Sunday, so we plugged some requests into the Betting Data and Results Supercomputer (not a real thing...it's just a database) and it returned some very juicy results.

Over in NFL games with high betting totals

Everyone in the betting community (public, sharps and oddsmakers) are talking about the total for the NFC Championship Game between the Green Bay Packers and the Atlanta Falcons. Depending on your book, the current total is either 60, 60.5, or 61. Whichever current number you are dealing with it remains within the parameters as the highest playoff total on record and the second highest for any NFL game (regular season or playoffs).

With all of that attention on the Over/Under, of course, we had to dig out some stats. The most compelling data that was spit out by the Betting Data and Results Supercomputer was the fact that there have been 12 NFL games (regular season or playoffs) that closed with betting totals of 57.5 or higher and 10 of those 12 games cashed tickets on the Over.

Over in Conference Championship games played in domes

This stat was a little bit surprising - during the last 15 years of NFL football (since 2001-02 season) there have been only six Conference Championship games played in domed stadiums. We've had a couple of games in Indianapolis, one in Atlanta, one in Phoenix, one in New Orleans, and one in St. Louis.

Of those six Conference Championship games played indoors over the past 15 years, there have been none that have gone Under the closing total. That's right! Over is a perfect 6-0 in those climate-controlled contests.

Home teams cover in games with massive betting totals

Sticking with this fascinating Over/Under number in Atlanta, big betting totals can also impact the final ATS results. When scanning the games with the loftiest Over/Under figures, another number that jumped off the page is the fact that the home team is 7-1 both straight up and against the spread in the last eight playoff games with closing totals of 55 or higher.

The reasoning could be that higher scoring games create a more frenzied playing environment in the stadium which definitely favors the home team. Whatever the reason - visiting teams definitely hate having to deal with those hostile environments on the road in the playoffs.

Over in Patriots playoff home games

Switching gears to the AFC Championship Game, we are all well aware that the New England Patriots have been in this position quite often. In fact, this Sunday versus the Pittsburgh Steelers will be the Patriots' 33rd playoff game over the last 16 seasons. That's insane!

When you narrow those 33 games down to playoff games played at Gillette Stadium you see a definite trend when it relates to the total. Since the Tom Brady knee injury in 2008-09 the Pats have played 11 playoff home games - Over has cashed in nine. Within that 9-2 Over run it's also worth noting that Over has cashed in the last five.

Brady versus Big Ben = Patriots win (especially at home)

"Tom Terrific" Brady versus "Big Ben" Roethlisberger. It's the quarterback matchup most people wanted to see in the AFC title game (unless you're a Raiders, Texans, Dolphins, or Chiefs fan). The Steelers and Patriots have met quite a few times since Brady stole Drew Bledsoe's job back in 2001 (11 times to be exact, including AFC Championship games in 2001-02 and 2004-05) so we asked the Covers Supercomputer to grab us those 11 games. But what about the Matt Cassel, Kordell Stewart, and Landry Jones games? Yeah, get those out of there!

What we are left with are eight legitimate "Brady vs. Ben" bouts. The Patriots are 6-2 in those games and covered the spread five times to post a 5-3 ATS mark. What is worth mentioning is the fact that Roethlisberger has never beaten a Brady-led Patriots squad in Foxboro. The "TB12"-led Pats are 3-0 all-time at home versus "Big Ben" and the Steelers, posting a 2-1 ATS record in the process.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Great quarterbacks make home teams great bets in AFC Championship Game
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

As it pertains to Conference Championship weekend, here’s what the AFC and NFC have in common: The home team has emerged victorious in each of the last three AFC and NFC Conference Championships.

Outside of that narrow three-year window, the similarities between the two conferences are few and far between. From an against-the-spread perspective, the home team in the AFC is 7-3 over the last ten conference championship games, while the home team in the NFC is just 4-5-1 over the last ten conference championship games. A similar trend emerges from a straight-up perspective as well, as the home team in the AFC is 9-1 over the last ten conference championship matchups, while the home team in the NFC is a mere 5-4 over the last nine conference championship showdowns.

Perhaps the discrepancy between the two conferences has something to do with the quarterback position. The last 13 AFC Championships have been won by the following four quarterbacks:

Tom Brady: 5
Peyton Manning: 4
Ben Roethlisberger: 3
Joe Flacco: 1

Let’s compare that list of four names with the quarterbacks who have won an NFC Championship over the last 13 years:

Russell Wilson: 2
Eli Manning: 2
Cam Newton: 1
Colin Kaepernick: 1
Aaron Rodgers: 1
Drew Brees: 1
Kurt Warner: 1
Rex Grossman: 1
Matt Hasselbeck: 1
Donovan McNabb: 1
Jake Delhomme: 1

Yup, you read that correctly. It does, in fact, say “Rex Grossman.”

Thank goodness this year’s conference championship games feature a combined seven Vince Lombardi Trophies, four Super Bowl MVP awards and four NFL MVP awards.

CURRENT SUPER BOWL LI ODDS

*Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

New England Patriots: 5/4 (Opened: 8/1)
Atlanta Falcons: 5/2 (Opened: 40/1)
Green Bay Packers: 4/1 (Opened: 10/1)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 9/2 (Opened: 8/1)

SHARP MONEY VS. PUBLIC MONEY: BEHIND THE COUNTER

In an effort to gain a better understanding of how the wagering market is currently approaching Conference Championship weekend, We reached out to both Jeff Sherman, who currently serves as Manager of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (@golfodds) and Dave Mason, who currently serves as the Sportsbook Brand Manager.

Which positions have the sharp bettors established?

Sherman: “So far, the sharps have laid Falcons -4 with us. Nothing else to report on that front at this time.”

Mason: “We took some sharp action on both Atlanta -4 and Pittsburgh +6.”

Which positions have the public bettors established?

Sherman: “The public has been playing the ‘P & P’ combination, with the Packers moneyline connected to the Patriots minus the points. This has been a common theme so far.”

Mason: “There’s a ton of early action coming in, with 68 percent of early bettors taking the Packers plus the points. In addition, 76 percent of early bettors have jumped on the Atlanta-Green Bay over. We got killed on the Packers moneyline last week and will be rooting against them again this Sunday, as 90 percent of bets placed are on Green Bay to win outright. In the second game, the public will be riding the Patriots as usual, with about 67 percent of current bets placed on this game siding with New England.”

Where is your biggest exposure in regards to Super Bowl futures?

Sherman: “We are in good shape with all four teams to win the Super Bowl, but Green Bay would be our least desired result at this point.”

Mason: “The Packers are a small liability. Any other franchise would be a winner for the house.”

Have you set advanced lines for each of the four potential Super Bowl matchups?

Sherman: “We do not have advanced lines up at the moment, but in a roundtable discussion we made the following: Patriots -3 vs. Falcons, Patriots -4 vs. Packers, Steelers -1 vs. Packers, Steelers pick ‘em vs. Falcons.”

Mason: “Our current Super Bowl lines are Patriots -3.5 vs. Falcons, Patriots -3.5 vs. Packers, Steelers pick ‘em vs. Packers, Falcons -1 vs. Steelers.”

Which two teams do you predict will be playing in the Super Bowl?

Sherman: “I’m expecting the Patriots to play the Falcons, as I’m going with the higher rated home sides.”

Mason: “I’ve got the Patriots taking on the Packers.”

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP RAMBLINGS FROM A MADMAN

Green Bay Packers: No lie, I’ve watched that 36-yard, fourth quarter completion Aaron Rodgers threw tight end Jared Cook in last Sunday’s win over Dallas at least 25 times over the past week and still can’t figure out how that was humanly possible. Perhaps Rodgers is not of this planet. And perhaps Dallas head coach Jason Garrett shouldn’t have had quarterback Dak Prescott spike the ball at the Green Bay 40-yard line with 47 seconds remaining in the game. Moronic. Back to reality: If the Packers want any chance of taking the field in Houston in just over two weeks, it will have to be the Green Bay defense that steps up and wins this football game. Take note that the Packers are 5-0 ATS over their last five games played in the month of January.

Atlanta Falcons: Will offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan’s decision to accept the head coaching position with the San Francisco 49ers serve as a distraction for either him or the team? And how, exactly, do you go about betting against the Falcons when they are playing in the Georgia Dome, as Atlanta is averaging an absurd 35.1 points per game at home this season? Be advised that the Falcons have covered the number in four of their last five games overall.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers have dropped seven of their last nine matchups with the Patriots and have spent the week answering questions about wide receiver Antonio Brown and his Sunday night social media mishap. Meanwhile, the Patriots have spent the week focused on their sixth consecutive AFC Championship appearance. The 2017 NFL postseason has been dominated by elite quarterback play and Ben Roethlisberger has been anything but elite over his last six starts, with just eight touchdown passes to eleven interceptions. Take note that the Steelers are just 4-11 ATS over their last 15 showdowns with the Patriots.

New England Patriots: Tom Brady got his ass kicked in last Saturday’s win over Houston, as freak of nature Jadeveon Clowney spent the better part of four quarters making himself right at home in the New England backfield. That issue will need to get rectified in a hurry if Tom Terrific wants any shot at winning a fifth Vince Lombardi Trophy. The Patriots are 4-1 ATS over their last five home playoff games and 14-3 ATS over their last 17 games overall. However, it’s absolutely worth noting that New England is an abysmal 1-6 ATS over its last seven Conference Championship matchups.

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP PROP BET OF THE WEEK

Prop: Total points scored by the Pittsburgh Steelers: 22.5 (-110 both ways)

Pick: OVER 22.5

Why: The Steelers have registered 24 or more points in nine of their last ten outings and are likely walking into another shootout situation that currently features a Las Vegas total of 50.5 points. Be advised that the over is 21-7-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 29 games played in the month of January and 13-5 in New England’s last 18 games played in the month of January. This prop should also be helped by the fact that the Patriots are currently priced as a 6-point favorite, which means the Steelers may be forced to press the action in the fourth quarter if they find themselves playing from behind.

TREND OF THE WEEK

The OVER is a perfect 9-0 in Atlanta home games this season. In addition, the OVER has cashed in six consecutive Green Bay Packers games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Aaron Rodgers tabbed at 2.5 touchdown passes highlights props for NFL Championship Sunday

NFL Conference Championship Sunday is here and if you're tired of simply betting on teams and totals, we have all the prop bets you need, courtesy the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. And who could have more intriguing props than Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

The Superbook has Rodgers' total completions tabbed at O/U 27.5, which is a little aggressive considering Rodgers averaged 23.8 completions per game this season (including playoffs). He completed more than 27.5 passes in only seven games this season and two of those were 28 completions.

Rodgers' total touchdown passes is on the board at O/U 2.5, which is pretty much on point as the Packers quarterback is averaging 2.5 touchdowns in 18 games.

So can Rodgers continue his amazing run in Atlanta, against the highest-scoring offence in the NFL? Check out all the other prop bets you will need for Championship Sunday below.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5, 60.5)

Will Either Team Score 3 Straight Times?
Yes -210
No +180
*Excludes extra points and 2 point conversions - includes safeties

First Score of the Game Will Be

Touchdown - 190
Any other score* + 170
* Includes safeties

Total Completions By: Aaron Rodgers (GB)

Over 27.5 -110
Under 27.5 -110

Total Touchdown Passes By: Aaron Rodgers (GB)

Over 2.5 -120
Under 2.5 Even

Will Aaron Rodgers (GB) Throw A Interception?

Yes -110
No -110

Will Ty Montgomery (GB) Score a Touchdown?

Yes +120
No -140

Total Receiving Yards by: Jared Cook (GB)

Over 56.5 -110
Under 56.5 -110

Total Gross Passing Yards By: Matt Ryan (ATL)

Over 320.5 -110
Under 320.5 -110

Total Touchdown Passes By: Matt Ryan (ATL)

Over 2.5 -130
Under 2.5 +110

Will Matt Ryan (ATL) Thrown an Interception?

Yes -120
No Even

Total Rushing Yards By: Devonta Freeman (ATL)

Over 64.5 -110
Under 64.5 -110

Will Tevin Coleman (ATL) Score a Touchdown?

Yes -150
No +130

Total Receiving Yards By: Julio Jones (ATL)

Over 94.5 -110
Under 94.5 -110

Will Both Teams Make a 33 Yard or Longer Field Goal?

Yes -140
No +120

Shortest TD of the Game:

Over 1.5 +130
Under 1.5 -150
*Includes all returns-If no TD is scored all bets are refunded
*Fumble recovered is end zone-“Under” is the winner

Largest Lead of the Game By: Either Team

Over 14.5 -160
Under 14.5 +140

Will Either Team Score in the Final 2 Minutes of the First Half?

Yes -330
No +270

Total QB Sacks By: Both Teams

Over 4.5 -120
Under 4.5 Even

Total Points By: Green Bay Packers

Over 28 -110
Under 28 -110

Total Points By: Atlanta Falcons

Over 33 -110
Under 33 -110

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-6, 50.5)

Will Either Team Score 3 Straight Times?

Yes -190
No +170
* Excludes extra points and 2 point conversions-Includes safeties

First Score of the Game Will Be:

Touchdown -170
Any Other Score* +150
*Includes Safeties

Total Gross Passing Yards By: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)

Over 284.5 -110
Under 284.5 -110

Total Touchdown Passes By: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)

Over 1.5 -160
Under 1.5 +140

Total Rushing Yards By: LeVeon Bell (PIT)

Over 103.5 -110
Under 103.5 -110

Will LeVeon Bell (PIT) Score a Touchdown?

Yes -150
No +130

Total Receiving Yards By: Antonio Brown (PIT)

Over 95.5 -110
Under 95.5 -110

Total Gross Passing Yards By: Tom Brady (NE)

Over 286.5 -110
Under 286.5 -110

Total Touchdown Passes By: Tom Brady (NE)

Over 2.5 Even
Under 2.5 -120

Will Tom Brady (NE) Thrown an Interception?

Yes +130
No -150

Will LeGarrette Blount (NE) Score a Touchdown?

Yes -135
No +115

Total Receiving Yards By: Julian Edelman (NE)

Over 80.5 -110
Under 80.5 -110

Will Both Teams Make a 33 Yard or Longer Field Goal?

Yes -110
No -110
* If no Field Goal is made, “NO” is the winner

Shortest TD of the Game:

Over 1.5 +115
Under 1.5 -135
* Includes all returns-If no TD is scored all bets are refunded
* Fumble recovered in end zone- “UNDER” is the winner

Largest Lead of the Game By: Either Team

Over 14.5 -130
Under 14.5 +110

Will Either Team Score in the Final 2 Minutes of the First Half?

Yes -270
No +230

Total QB Sacks By: BOTH TEAMS

Over 3.5 +110
Under 3.5 -130

Total Points By: Pittsburgh Steelers

Over 22.5 -110
Under 22.5 -110

Total Points By: New England Patriots

Over 28.5 -110
Under 28.5 -110

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Conference Championship Playoff lines that make you go hmmm...
By PETER KORNER

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL Conference Championship schedule and tells you why these postseason lines are making him go “hmmm…”

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5 61)

For whatever reason, I was way off on my numbers with the two games being played this weekend. In this NFC clash, my number was closer to Atlanta -2.5 to maybe -3 (Even). I was thoroughly impressed with how Green Bay had caught fire and thought the betting public saw the same. But sometimes you have to look at the other team as well. In this case, I probably didn’t weigh the outstanding case that the Falcons have presented to produce a good two-way line.

The offshores hung a -6 to open, the line settled in at -4.5 and has since wavered at the -5 level for most of the week. Don’t be fooled by the gap of numbers you may see. Bookmakers have to play a little to their futures risk extension and may be hedging their number to attract action that would even out their bottom line.

The total at 61 is a good number and should create the best opportunity for splitting the handle come game time. Possession time for the offenses will be short - maybe three minutes on average - which will create more opportunities for the score to be run up. I think most bettors will feel uncomfortable with either side they select in this one.

Looking at this game with a little better perspective (now that we’re deep into the week), I can see the sportsbooks needing Green Bay. I think the number will continue to climb back to the offshores opening release which may give them good two-way action but for those books who opened at -4.5, it will be a big decision come kickoff.

The line won’t move all that much but every half a point is big at this time of the year. If you like the Packers and your available line is at +4.5 to +5, wait for game day when this may climb. If you like Atlanta, grab it, as this spread looks to close around -5.5 to -6.


Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-6, 51)

Knowing what I know now, my “out there” number of New England -9 would have been tempered with the lower opinions and I would have released no lower than New England -7.

The early line of New England -5.5 was weak and standing at -6 now only invites more Patriots money all through the weekend. My guess is that either result in the first game will prompt more Patriots money. A favorite win by Atlanta will continue the steamroll effect by bettors to keep laying the wood. A Green Bay victory will plant the seed that there’s no way two underdogs will come in on the same day.

The writing is on the wall. New England -6 is the lowest you’ll see from now until kickoff. Grab the Patriots if you’re a favorite backer before this climbs closer to the key number of seven. If you like Pittsburgh, be patient. This will get there and when it does, grab the meat when it’s dangled in front of your face.

The total here is good as well. Always consider the weather, particularly wind conditions, before plunking down your play. Books offering two-team NFL teasers are facing a grim Sunday as everyone will be slashing the favorites in order to eliminate backdoor covers or even the slightest hint of an upset challenge. No matter the results in these two games, the Super Bowl should have a good matchup.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five ways to wager the NFL Conference Championships
By JASON LOGAN

Super Bowl Sunday is the biggest sports betting buffet for those football fans with a little more than pride on the line. That would make Championship Sunday, when the NFC and AFC crown their respective winners, the appetizer.

The playoff powers that be have given football bettors two very tasty options: the Atlanta Falcons host the Green Bay Packers in the NFC title game while the Pittsburgh Steelers visit the New England Patriots with the AFC Championship on the line.

Regardless of if you’re an experienced sports bettor or just curious to what the Las Vegas oddsmakers think about these two matchups, here are five ways you can wager on Championship Sunday.

Pointspread

The spreads for this year’s championship games are a little more competitive than previous years. While last year’s NFC and AFC Championship games closed with field-goal lines, prior championship games have been pegged with pointspreads of a touchdown or more.

With the Falcons as 5-point home favorites and the Patriots giving six points to the visiting Steelers, football fans should be able to enjoy competitive matchups this weekend regardless of if they have money riding on the outcome or not.

All four championship contestants have been solid bets this season, going a combined 41-21-2 against the spread (66 percent), but when it comes to consistently covering the pointspread each and every Sunday, no one does that better than Bill Belichick and the Patriots.

New England finished the regular season 13-3 ATS (against the spread) and has cashed in for its betting faithful in six consecutive games going back to Week 11 of the regular season. What’s even more impressive is the fact that the Pats have been an average favorite of almost 10.5 points during that winning streak.

Total

Eye brows across the betting community hit the ceiling when the total opened for the NFC Championship Game. Oddsmakers set the projected number of total points scored between Atlanta and Green Bay – which you can then bet Over or Under that total – at 59.5 points.

That number has since climbed as high as 60.5 with bets coming in on the Over, which is according to Covers' betting database (going back to 1985) the largest betting total for a NFL postseason game… EVER!

If the NFC title game total closes at 60 or above it will eclipses the previous postseason high: a 59.5-point total set for a 2011-12 Wild-Card matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Detroit Lions, which finished 45-28 in favor of the Saints and Over bettors.

There have been 12 NFL betting totals (regular and postseason) of 57.5 points or more going back to 1985, and 10 of those contests have topped the number. This year, the Falcons finished 14-2 Over/Under while the Packers went 10-6 O/U including a 6-0 run for the Over heading into Sunday’s game. These teams rank No. 1 and No. 4 respectively in scoring offense.

Props

Super Bowl is famous for its laundry list of wagering options, from first player to score a touchdown to the color of the Gatorade bath. However, Championship Sunday is packed with prop potential as well.

Two instant heroes from last week’s Divisional Round games hold interesting prop value during Championship Sunday.

For the Patriots, Dion Lewis made the record books scoring a receiving, rushing and return touchdown in New England’s victory over Houston. Lewis is priced at +120 (a $1.20 return for every $1 wagered) to score a touchdown in the AFC Championship, which isn’t all that tempting. But if Lewis scores two TDs versus the Steelers, he’s paying out at +750. Those odds aren’t too bad considering Lewis has multiple ways to find the end zone.

In the NFC Championship, Packers receiver Jared Cook is coming off a huge outing versus Dallas in which he caught six balls for 103 yards and a touchdown, including a 35-yard pass along the sideline to set up the game-winning field goal. Cook has a betting total of 61.5 receiving yards (Over/Under -120) for Sunday’s contest, which seems like asking a lot of the journeyman receiver who had topped that total only twice this season before last Sunday. Cook could, however, get extra touches with top wideout Jordy Nelson's status up in the air (ribs/illness) and fellow WR Davante Adams slowed with an ankle injury, giving value to the Over.

Super Bowl odds

Think you already know who is advancing to the Big Game and which team will party with Lombardi in Houston? Grab what little value is left in the Super Bowl LI futures and put your money where your mouth is.

The Steelers are currently the biggest long shots to win Super Bowl LI, priced at 9/2 (+450) simply because Pittsburgh has to go through Foxborough in order to get to Houston. Ben Roethlisberger & Co. opened among the favorites the win Super Bowl LI last January at 8/1, climbed as high as 20/1 after losing four in a row between Weeks 6 and Week 10, before finishing the regular season on a seven-game hot streak which trimmed that price back to its original spot of +800.

As it stands heading into the weekend, New England is a 5/4 (+125) favorite ahead of Atlanta at 5/2, Green Bay at 4/1 and Pittsburgh at 9/2 odds.

Live in-game betting

Not many people know that you can bet on a game as it happens. In-game wagering has been a very popular market for European bookmakers for decades but has slowly been integrated into the North American industry. Thanks to mobile devices and some changing to regulations in Nevada, most sportsbooks across the Silver State offer live betting on just about all major events.

Odds are constantly changing as the action plays out, which means the spread and total ebb and flow with every possession, and some operators even offer in-game props such as “Will the first play of the drive be a running or passing play?”. One of the best ways to take advantage of in-game wagering is to grab a team at a discount price, which often happens when you get some lopsided scoring or surprising results early into a contest.

Keeping that in mind, the Packers are the only team among the final four that gives up less points in the second half than they do in the first, allowing an average of 12.4 points in the first 30 minutes compared to only 11.6 points in the final two quarters.

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has three fourth-quarter comebacks this season – more than the other three conference contending QBs – and is infamous for his Hail Mary chucks and last-second heroics - as crushed Cowboys fans found out last week. As one Las Vegas oddsmaker said, “It’s hard to give Aaron Rodgers points just knowing that at the end of the game, even if he’s down 10, he’s in striking range to cover the spread.”

Guys with a flare for the dramatic are what live betting is all about this time of year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Championships
By Chris David

Divisional Playoffs Recap

The ‘over’ went 3-1 last weekend and all of the results were clear-cut. Bettors playing halves watched the first-half go 3-1 to the ‘over’ as well while the second-halves ended in a stalemate (2-2). Through eight games, the ‘over’ stands at 5-3 in the playoffs.

Championship Game History

The ‘under’ has cashed in five straight AFC title games and is 6-4 over the last 10 years. New England will be playing in its six straight championship game and even though the club is known for offense, the unit has only averaged 23 points per game in their last five trips. Pittsburgh has watched the ‘over’ go 2-0 in its last two trips to the AFC title game but both of those totals closed in the thirties.

AFC Championship Total History (2006-2015)
Year Result Total
2015-2016 Denver 20 vs. New England 18 45, Under
2014-2015 New England 45 vs. Indianapolis 7 52.5, Under
2013-2014 Denver 26 vs. New England 16 57, Under
2012-2013 Baltimore 28 at New England 13 49.5, Under
2011-2012 New England 23 vs. Baltimore 20 49, Under
2010-2011 Pittsburgh 24 vs. N.Y. Jets 19 38, Over
2009-2010 Indianapolis 30 vs. N.Y. Jets 17 40, Over
2008-2009 Pittsburgh 23 vs. Baltimore 14 35, Over
2007-2008 New England 21 vs. San Diego 12 48, Under
2006-2007 Indianapolis 38 vs. New England 34 47, Over

The NFC Championship has watched the ‘over’ go 7-3 the last 10 years both Green Bay (2-1) and Atlanta (1-0) have helped contribute to that mark.

NFC Championship Total History (2006-2015)
Year Result Total
2015-2016 Carolina 49 vs. Arizona 15 47.5, Over
2014-2015 Seattle 28 vs. Green Bay 22 (OT) 47, Over
2013-2014 Seattle 23 vs. San Francisco 17 40.5, Under
2012-2013 San Francisco 28 at Atlanta 24 48, Over
2011-2012 New York 20 at San Francisco 17 (OT) 42, Under
2010-2011 Green Bay 21 at Chicago 14 42, Under
2009-2010 New Orleans 31 vs. Minnesota 28 (OT) 54, Over
2008-2009 Arizona 32 vs. Philadelphia 25 47, Over
2007-2008 N.Y. Giants 23 at Green Bay 20 41, Over
2006-2007 Chicago 34 vs. New Orleans 14 42.5, Over

NFC Championship – Green Bay at Atlanta (FOX, 3:05 p.m. ET)

After this game was set last Sunday, oddsmakers sent out a total of 58 ½ and that number didn’t last long. It was quickly pushed up to 61 and most books are holding 60 to 61 as of Thursday.

In the 2011 playoffs, New Orleans earned a 45-28 home win over Detroit in the Wild Card round and the total (59 ½) on that game was the highest ever for a playoff matchup. For those keeping records, the highest total for any NFL game occurred in the 2000 regular season when the Rams and 49ers had a number of 62 ½ and that game went ‘under’ as St. Louis captured a 34-24 win in the Bay Area.

I’m not sure if Sunday’s number will reach 62 or 63 but I certainly don’t see a ton of wagers leaning to the low side, especially when you look at the form for both clubs.

Atlanta owns the best scoring offense (33.9 PPG) in the league and Green Bay is averaging 32.2 PPG during its current eight-game winning streak.

Those numbers have helped the Falcons produced the best ‘over’ mark (14-2-1) this season and that includes a perfect 9-0 mark at the Georgia Dome. Green Bay has also been a great ‘over’ bet (12-6) and it’s riding a six-game run to the high side headed into this game.

These teams met in Week 8 and Atlanta earned a 33-32 decision at home and the ‘over’ (51) was never in doubt as Green Bay led 24-19 at halftime. The game had 11 scores, eight of them being touchdowns and there were no turnovers in a game that saw both quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers (246 yards, 4 TDs) and Matt Ryan (288 yards, 3 TDs) dice up the defensive units.

Even though the teams combined for 65 in the first go ‘round, the pace wasn’t exactly fast and each team only had nine possessions. Green Bay ran 60 offensive plays while Atlanta’s unit offensive only managed 56 snaps.

Another factor contributing to Atlanta’s great ‘over’ record is its defense, which allowed 25.1 PPG this season. However, the unit trimmed that number to 21.9 PPG in the second-half of the season and they did hold Seattle to 20 points last Saturday.

Including last week’s win over Seattle in the Divisional Playoffs, the Falcons have now seen the ‘over’ go 5-1 in six postseason games with Ryan under center behind an offense averaging 28.5 PPG.

The Packers posted 34 points at Dallas last Sunday and the club has now seen the 'over' go 7-3 in 10 road playoff games with Rodgers at QB. These teams met in the 2010 playoffs from the Georgia Dome and Rodgers was near perfect (31-of-36, 366 yards, 3 TDs) as the Packers earned a 48-21 road win.

Fearless Prediction: Everybody is expecting a shootout in this matchup and while it’s hard to argue for the ‘under’ in this game, it’s the smarter play because the line has been inflated 10 points since they met earlier in the season. I could see one team getting into the thirties but not both and I would lean to the Green Bay Team Total ‘under’ (28) and the Atlanta Team Total ‘under’ (32 ½).

AFC Championship – Pittsburgh at New England (CBS, 6:40 p.m. ET)

Unlike the NFC title game, this total hasn’t had as much movement and has stayed closer to the opener of 51 ½ but the early money has come in on the ‘under.’ As of Thursday, most books were holding steady at 50, 50 ½ and 51.

It’s a tough total to handicap because the Patriots (10-7) and Steelers (12-6) have both produced solid ‘under’ wagers this season yet the oddsmakers know that Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger are more than capable of lighting up the scoreboard.

The Patriots dropped the Texans 34-16 last Saturday in the Divisional Playoffs and the ‘over’ connected (44 ½) despite Brady only completely 47 percent of his passes. Truth be told, Brady hasn’t looked sharp in his last two playoff games but he was also facing top-ranked units in Houston and Denver in last year’s conference championship.

Expecting Brady to rebound on Sunday isn’t a stretch, especially when you look at his career numbers against Pittsburgh. The Patriots have gone 9-2 versus the Steelers with Brady under center and he’s tossed 26 touchdowns and only three interceptions while completing 69 percent of his passes.

In this year’s meeting between the pair in Week 7, Brady was sharp (19-of-26, 222 yards, 2 TDs) and the Patriots defeated the Steelers 27-16 on the road. Landry Jones played for an injured Roethlisberger and he wasn’t that bad in the loss, tossing for 281 yards and a score. The game went ‘under’ (49 ½) and three of the last four in this series have gone to the low side.

Pittsburgh’s 18-16 win over Kansas City last Sunday saw the ‘under’ (45 ½) connect as the Steelers settled for six field goals. Including that result, Pittsburgh has seen the ‘under’ go 7-2 in nine games away from Heinz Field this season.

Defensively, New England (15.6 PPG) is ranked first in scoring and Pittsburgh (19.7 PPG) isn’t far behind with the eighth ranked unit. While those numbers are impressive, you can argue that neither unit has been tested against many top-tier quarterback this season.

Including Brady, the Steelers only faced two other signal callers ranked in the Top 10 in quarterback rating - Kirk Cousins in Week 1 and Dak Prescott in Week 10. The Steelers went 1-2 in those games while allowing 26 PPG. Meanwhile when it comes to QBR, the best gunslinger that New England faced this season was Ryan Tannehill, who was ranked 12th. The Patriots beat the Dolphins in Week 2 but Tannehill finished 32-of-45 for 387 yards with a pair of touchdowns and interceptions. After him, Seattle’s Russell Wilson (14th) was the next stiffest test for the Patriots this season and he diced up the unit (25-of-27, 348 yards, 3 TDs) for a 31-24 Seahawks road win in Week 10.

Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin watched the ‘over’ go 8-0-1 in his first nine playoff games but the ‘under’ has cashed in his last four postseason games. While New England has had a knack of putting up points in the Divisional round, the same can’t be said for championship round. As mentioned above, the Patriots are averaging 23 PPG in their last five trips to the AFC title game and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 5-0 during this span.

Fearless Prediction: Even though Pittsburgh has scored 18, 16 and 18 points in its last three playoff road games, I believe the Steelers will score in this spot against a New England defense that hasn’t been tested. With that being said, I’ll play the Pittsburgh Team Total ‘over’ (22 1 ½).