John Martin
NFL | Sep 27
Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots New England Patriots
-4-108 at 5DIMES > 2d.
Martin's Sunday NFL Bonus Play:
1 Unit on New England Patriots -4
The Patriots have to win this game, and I have no doubt that Tom Brady and company will get the job done. The Patriots were embarrassed last week at New York, and you can bet Bill Belichick will have his team ready to go this week. Atlanta has been very fortunate to play their first two games at home, but now they have to face a rowdy crowd in Foxboro and a team very hungry for a win. The Falcons are 0-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. The Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. My money is on Brady and Belichick this week. Cash in with New England as the favorite.
NFL | Sep 27
Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots New England Patriots
-4-108 at 5DIMES > 2d.
Martin's Sunday NFL Bonus Play:
1 Unit on New England Patriots -4
The Patriots have to win this game, and I have no doubt that Tom Brady and company will get the job done. The Patriots were embarrassed last week at New York, and you can bet Bill Belichick will have his team ready to go this week. Atlanta has been very fortunate to play their first two games at home, but now they have to face a rowdy crowd in Foxboro and a team very hungry for a win. The Falcons are 0-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. The Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. My money is on Brady and Belichick this week. Cash in with New England as the favorite.
Craig Trapp
NFL | Sep 27
Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks Chicago Bears
-1-122 at 5DIMES > 2d.
CHI -1: The Chicago Bears are coming off the biggest win this team has seen in over 2 years. The best news it that new QB Cutler was magical at the end of the game, leading them down for a game winning score. It has been forever since CHI could rely on a QB. The confidence of both the offense and defense can be seen by everyone. No longer does this team have to play great defense and win ugly. This team can actually move the ball on offense. On the other side another injury to Superstar QB Hassleback has Seattle's teams lofty goals in jeopardy. Seattle's defense is a little better from last year but not good enough to win games for them. Sounds as if Hassleback will miss this week and without him they have very little chance in beating a very good Bears team. Take CHI -1
NFL | Sep 27
Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks Chicago Bears
-1-122 at 5DIMES > 2d.
CHI -1: The Chicago Bears are coming off the biggest win this team has seen in over 2 years. The best news it that new QB Cutler was magical at the end of the game, leading them down for a game winning score. It has been forever since CHI could rely on a QB. The confidence of both the offense and defense can be seen by everyone. No longer does this team have to play great defense and win ugly. This team can actually move the ball on offense. On the other side another injury to Superstar QB Hassleback has Seattle's teams lofty goals in jeopardy. Seattle's defense is a little better from last year but not good enough to win games for them. Sounds as if Hassleback will miss this week and without him they have very little chance in beating a very good Bears team. Take CHI -1
Doc's Sports
NFL | Sep 27
Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders Denver Broncos
-1-110 at BODOG > 2d.
Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports. #127 Take Denver over Oakland (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS) The Broncos are off to a surprising 2-0 start in 2009 and look to make it 3-0 against the Raiders Sunday afternoon in Oakland. Whenever you see the Raiders as a favorite, it is an automatic play against lately. When they are favored against divisional teams they are 0-10 ATS in their last ten games. Denver won in Oakland last year 41-10 on Monday Night Football to open up the 2008 season. I just am not sold on QB Russell as a leader, winner, or playmaker. He seems to miss wide open receiver and despite having a strong arm, I do not believe he will be able to get the job done in the league. Now is the time to sign-up for Doc’s Sports Selection Service. Check out our strong picks packages below and let 38 years of handicapping experience work for you.
NFL | Sep 27
Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders Denver Broncos
-1-110 at BODOG > 2d.
Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports. #127 Take Denver over Oakland (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS) The Broncos are off to a surprising 2-0 start in 2009 and look to make it 3-0 against the Raiders Sunday afternoon in Oakland. Whenever you see the Raiders as a favorite, it is an automatic play against lately. When they are favored against divisional teams they are 0-10 ATS in their last ten games. Denver won in Oakland last year 41-10 on Monday Night Football to open up the 2008 season. I just am not sold on QB Russell as a leader, winner, or playmaker. He seems to miss wide open receiver and despite having a strong arm, I do not believe he will be able to get the job done in the league. Now is the time to sign-up for Doc’s Sports Selection Service. Check out our strong picks packages below and let 38 years of handicapping experience work for you.
Alex Grosse
NFL | Sep 27
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Houston Texans
-3½-103 at 5DIMES > 2d.
Unlocked Sports 2* Bonus Play
After an embarrassing 24-7 blowout loss at home to the Jets in week 1, the Texans rebounded by defeating the Titans 34-31 on the road. By scoring 34 points against one of the league’s toughest defenses, Gary Kubiak’s squad proved that it has the potential to be one of the league’s most powerful offensive teams. Most of Houston’s yards were gained through the air as Matt Schaub was absolutely spectacular throwing for 357 yards and 4 touchdowns. He will likely put up big numbers against the Jags who rank 26th in pass defense, allowing 279.5 yards through the air. The only concern for Houston covering the number is its ability to stop the opposition. The Texans are allowing 27.5 points per game but fortunately are facing an opponent that has a difficult time scoring points. The Jags are only averaging 14.5 points and ranked 24th in points last season. Additionally, the Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Houston.
NFL | Sep 27
Washington Redskins vs. Detroit Lions Detroit Lions
+6½-110 at SPBOOK > 2d.
Unlocked Sports 2* Bonus Play
The Redskins proved again last week why you cannot play them as a favorite. They were favored by 10 points against the Rams and were barely able to beat them. They didn’t even score a touchdown! Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 as a favorite. They travel to Detroit to face the Lions, a team who has lost 19 consecutive regular season games. I can guarantee you that Detroit will be hungry to win this one and will give the Redskins a run for their money. The Lions may have gotten creamed in their first two games this season but they faced the Saints and Vikings, two teams that have a very good chance at winning their respective divisions and are considered to be Super Bowl Contenders by many. The problem with the Redskins is that they just can’t seem to be able to score points. They are averaging 13 points per game ranking 31st in the league and ranked 28th in that category last year. A team that is having this kind of trouble offensively should never be favored by this margin.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions win this one outright.
NFL | Sep 27
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Houston Texans
-3½-103 at 5DIMES > 2d.
Unlocked Sports 2* Bonus Play
After an embarrassing 24-7 blowout loss at home to the Jets in week 1, the Texans rebounded by defeating the Titans 34-31 on the road. By scoring 34 points against one of the league’s toughest defenses, Gary Kubiak’s squad proved that it has the potential to be one of the league’s most powerful offensive teams. Most of Houston’s yards were gained through the air as Matt Schaub was absolutely spectacular throwing for 357 yards and 4 touchdowns. He will likely put up big numbers against the Jags who rank 26th in pass defense, allowing 279.5 yards through the air. The only concern for Houston covering the number is its ability to stop the opposition. The Texans are allowing 27.5 points per game but fortunately are facing an opponent that has a difficult time scoring points. The Jags are only averaging 14.5 points and ranked 24th in points last season. Additionally, the Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Houston.
NFL | Sep 27
Washington Redskins vs. Detroit Lions Detroit Lions
+6½-110 at SPBOOK > 2d.
Unlocked Sports 2* Bonus Play
The Redskins proved again last week why you cannot play them as a favorite. They were favored by 10 points against the Rams and were barely able to beat them. They didn’t even score a touchdown! Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 as a favorite. They travel to Detroit to face the Lions, a team who has lost 19 consecutive regular season games. I can guarantee you that Detroit will be hungry to win this one and will give the Redskins a run for their money. The Lions may have gotten creamed in their first two games this season but they faced the Saints and Vikings, two teams that have a very good chance at winning their respective divisions and are considered to be Super Bowl Contenders by many. The problem with the Redskins is that they just can’t seem to be able to score points. They are averaging 13 points per game ranking 31st in the league and ranked 28th in that category last year. A team that is having this kind of trouble offensively should never be favored by this margin.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions win this one outright.
Black Widow
NFL | Sep 27
New Orleans Saints vs. Buffalo Bills Buffalo Bills
+6½-105 at SIA > 2d.
Widow's NFL Free Pick for Sunday:
1* on Buffalo Bills +6.5
Everyone is all over the New Orleans Saints after they've put up 93 points in 2 games. As a result, this line has been inflated. Remember, the Bills could easily be 2-0 right now if it wasn't for a Leodis McKelvin fumble that handed the Patriots the game in Week 1. But Buffalo responded nicely at home last week, taking a 17-0 lead over Tampa Bay and never looking back in a 33-20 victory. This Bills' defense is much better than they get credit for, and this stop unit can make big plays to counter the Saints' explosive offense. After last week’s win over Tampa Bay, Head coach Dick Jauron now owns a 15-3 ATS mark at home against non-conference teams. His Bills’ clubs are also 9-4 ATS in September, and 8-4 ATS as home dogs. The Saints were fortunate to play Detroit in Week 1 and an Eagles' team without Donovan McNabb and a beat up defense in Week 2. This one won't come as easy for Drew Brees and company as the oddsmakers are expecting. Take Buffalo and the points.
NFL | Sep 27
New Orleans Saints vs. Buffalo Bills Buffalo Bills
+6½-105 at SIA > 2d.
Widow's NFL Free Pick for Sunday:
1* on Buffalo Bills +6.5
Everyone is all over the New Orleans Saints after they've put up 93 points in 2 games. As a result, this line has been inflated. Remember, the Bills could easily be 2-0 right now if it wasn't for a Leodis McKelvin fumble that handed the Patriots the game in Week 1. But Buffalo responded nicely at home last week, taking a 17-0 lead over Tampa Bay and never looking back in a 33-20 victory. This Bills' defense is much better than they get credit for, and this stop unit can make big plays to counter the Saints' explosive offense. After last week’s win over Tampa Bay, Head coach Dick Jauron now owns a 15-3 ATS mark at home against non-conference teams. His Bills’ clubs are also 9-4 ATS in September, and 8-4 ATS as home dogs. The Saints were fortunate to play Detroit in Week 1 and an Eagles' team without Donovan McNabb and a beat up defense in Week 2. This one won't come as easy for Drew Brees and company as the oddsmakers are expecting. Take Buffalo and the points.
NFL WRITE-UP
NFL Week 3 games
Sunday, Setember 27
Titans (0-2) @ Jets (2-0)-- Tennessee is 10-3-1 vs spread as a road dog since 2006; huge test for Jet team that backed its talk last week and beat a division rival, but is just 3-7-1 as home favorite last two years. Titans are desperate to win, having lost last two games by FG each- they ran for 240 yards last week, but allowed 321-357 passing yards in first two games (6.8/9.2 ypp), and may miss departed DC Schwartz more than expected. Tennessee is 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten games as non-divisional road dog. Jets still haven't allowed a TD on defense- their opponents have run ball 33 times for total of 121 yards (3.7).
Jaguars (0-2) @ Texans (1-1)-- Home side won nine of last 12 series games, as Jags lost five of last six visits here, the last three by 20-14-13 points. Jaguars lost first two games, going 3/out eight times on 22 drives- they're 24-11 vs the spread in last 35 games as single digit underdog. Houston gave up 240 rushing yards last week, but averaged 9.2 yards/pass; they're 7-5 as home favorite the last 2+ years. Jags are 11-6-1 as road dog in divisional games since '01. Average total in last four series games, 55.6. In its brief history, Houston is 3-2 against spread when favored at home against a division rival.
Chiefs (0-2) @ Eagles (1-1)-- Kolb likely to start again with Eagles having bye next week; Vick will make Philly debut here in Wildcat sets, vs Chief defense that held Oakland to 7-24/99 passing last week, but gave up winning drive in last minute. KC lost to Raider team they outgained 409-166; they're 10-7 as a road underdog since '07. Interesting note for later in week-- Chiefs are 7-0 as a double digit dog since '02, 12-20-1 as single digit dog since '05, 6-9-1 as a road dog vs non-divisional foe. Philly covered seven of last nine as a home favorite. Home favorites are 5-7 vs spread in non-divisional games this season.
Browns (0-2) @ Ravens (2-0)-- Baltimore is 8-4 in last dozen series games, as Browns lost five of last six visits here, with all five losses by 10+ points- they are 1-5 vs spread as double digit dog since '07, 4-9 as divisional road dog since '04. Cleveland gave up 61 points in losing first two games by 14-21 points; in two games, they've been outrushed 411-143. Ravens had great win last week in San Diego; they've scored 69 points in first two games, outrushing opponents by 328-92, winning by 14-5 points, but could they be looking ahead to a game in Foxboro next week? Baltimore is 8-5 as divisional home favorite since 2003.
Giants (2-0) @ Buccaneers (0-2)-- Trap game for Giants, coming off couple of division rivalry wins, while Bucs lost first two games, giving up 34-33 points. Tampa allowed 336 yards on 59 rushes so far (5.7 ypc), bad news vs diverse Giant attack that averaged 8.3/8.7 ypa in first two games, but has struggled in red zone, kicking six FGs with no TDs in eight RZ drives. Big Blue is 11-4 as a road favorite since '05, 26-13 as single digit underdog since '05- they scored a defensive TD in both games this year. Bucs are 15-20 as single digit dog since 2004, but they are 5-1-1 vs spread as non-divisional home underdog since '00.
Redskins (1-1) @ Lions (0-2)-- Home team is 10-3 in last 13 series games, as Redskins won last three meetings vs Detroit by 7-31-8 points. Lions lost their last 19 games, are 12-27 as single digit dog since '05, 4-11-1 in last 16 games as a non-divisional home dog. Lions allowed nine TDs on 22 drives this year; foes are completing 80.6% of their passes. Underdog is 4-0-1 vs spread in last five Redskin games. Washington offense was putrid last week, with three FGs on four RZ trips, failing to score TD vs lowly Rams; they lost RG Thomas for season, but are 5-2-1 against the pointspread as road favorite since '05.
Packers (1-1) @ Rams (0-2)-- Green Bay OL is struggling; they've run ball for just 165 yards in two games, allowed 10 sacks; they've scored only one TD in second half, are on upset alert against hungry Ram club that showed defensive grit last week, holding Redskins without TD. St Louis lost its last 12 games, is 4-9 vs spread as home dog last two years, 5-18 in last 23 games as single digit dog. Green Bay is 8-5 as road favorite since '03, 12-8 in last 20 games as single digit favorite. Rams have one TD on 18 drives, completed only half its passes in losing first two games by 28-2. Average total in last five series tilts is 54.4.
49ers (2-0) @ Vikings (2-0)-- Week 3's only meeting of unbeatens; Niners lost last three visits here by 7-24-28 points (last two 40-16/35-7), but in winning first two games, 49ers held opponents to two TDs on 24 drives (11 3/outs), and allowed only 106 rushing yards, so good test here vs Peterson-led Viking attack that has 337 rushing yards in first two games, scoring seven TDs on 22 drives- they outscored foes 44-7 in second half of games, after trailing both by FG at the half. Vikings are 15-10 as single digit since '05, 14-9 as home favorite in non-divisional games. 49ers are 9-20-1 as non-divisional road underdog.
Falcons (2-0) @ Patriots (1-1)-- Belichick is 15-3 vs spread off a loss since '03 as BC alum Ryan returns to Beantown with 2-0 Falcon squad that is diverse on offense, stingy on defense, allowing three TDs on 19 drives in first two Ws. Patriots have +58 pass/run ratio so far, 14 more than any other team; they've scored only three TDs in eight red zone drives, as Welker's absence was huge in loss at Swamp last week. Patriots are 13-18-1 as home favorite since 2005, but 6-4 as non-divisional HF last two years. Falcons are 12-8 as road dog since '06, 9-4 in last thirteen games as non-divisional road underdog.
Bears (1-1) @ Seahawks (1-1)-- Hasselbeck is out (broken rib); Wallace isn't a quality backup (Seattle was shut out in second half last week, after a one-yard TD pass on first play after Hasselbeck got hurt), so Bears are favored on road after upsetting Steelers at home. Seattle is 14-9-1 vs spread off a loss since '05; they're 3-2-1 as home dog since '03. Since '06, Bears are just 1-5-1 vs spread if favored by 3 or less points- they've run ball for just 129 yards in first couple games. Seahawks have just one takeaway in splitting pair of division games. Chicago lost last four visits to Seattle, with their only win way back in 1976.
Saints (2-0) @ Bills (1-1)-- Payton's high-flying Saints scored 93 points in its first two wins, most points scored in Weeks 1-2 since 1968 Raiders scored 95. Road team won last four series games; Saints won two of last three visits here. Buffalo hasn't gone 3/out on 19 drives this year- they need to keep ball away from QB Brees, whose nine TD passes in two games are tied for most ever by NFL QB after two weeks. Bills are 7-4 as home dog since '06, 11-4 vs spread in last 15 non-divisional home games. Saints are 6-2 as road favorite since '05, they've got 11 TDs on 24 drives, converted 15 of 26 on third down (57.7%).
Dolphins (0-2) @ Chargers (1-1)-- Long trip on short work week for Miami club that had bitter home loss to Colts late Monday night. Dolphins won last seven games vs San Diego, winning last three here by 10-10-2 points. Fish are 9-5-2 as road dog since '07, 17-7-1 in last 25 games as non-divisional road dog. Bolts scored 10 or less points in five of last six series games- they're 16-10 as home favorite since '06, 13-9 as non-divisional HF since '03. Chargers didn't have TD (three FGs) in five red zone trips vs Ravens last week; they dropped back to pass 47 times, only ran it 21. Miami gave up 12.3 ypp Monday nite.
Steelers (1-1) @ Bengals (1-1)-- Pitt is 15-4 in last 19 series games, taking last five (last four by 11+ points); Steelers won last eight games here, none by less than six points- they covered 10 of last 14 as divisional road favorite, but are just 6-10 as road favorite overall since '06. Bengals have nine sacks so far, are 10-5 vs spread in last 15 games as underdog- they're 6-9 as home dog since '04. Pitt played pair of low scoring games so far (13-10/14-17) but didn't have any takeaways in rainy Chicago last week, first game without Polamalu at safety. Bengals allowed just 75-89 rushing yards in first two games, a good sign.
Broncos (2-0) @ Raiders (1-1)-- Oakland won two of last three in series, after losing previous five games; Denver won five of last six visits to Oakland, with four of five wins by 14+ points, but Shanahan had vendetta against his former boss Al Davis. These Broncos are 2-0; Nike Nolan's 3-4 defense allowed one TD on 22 drives (nine 3/outs); they've outrushed opponents 261-140. Russell has completed just 37.5% of passes so far- Raiders went 3/out on 11/21 drives they need more consistency under center. Oakland is 9-19-1 as home favorite this decade. Broncos covered two of their last nine AFC West road games.
Colts (2-0) @ Cardinals (1-1)-- Indy won first two games by 2-4 points, with Manning averaging 12.3 ypa Monday in Miami. Colt defense is giving up 4.7 ypc- their foes converted 21 of 36 on 3rd down. This is long road trip on short work week, but Colts are 7-1-1 vs spread this decade when dog of three or less points, 9-4-1 in last 14 games as road dog overall. Warner was 24-26 passing in easy win at Jacksonville last week; Cardinals are 11-9 as home fave since '05, 10-4 in last 14 games as non-divisional HF. Redbord defense faced Hill/Garrard in first two games, now takes major step up in QB competition vs Manning.
NFL Week 3 games
Sunday, Setember 27
Titans (0-2) @ Jets (2-0)-- Tennessee is 10-3-1 vs spread as a road dog since 2006; huge test for Jet team that backed its talk last week and beat a division rival, but is just 3-7-1 as home favorite last two years. Titans are desperate to win, having lost last two games by FG each- they ran for 240 yards last week, but allowed 321-357 passing yards in first two games (6.8/9.2 ypp), and may miss departed DC Schwartz more than expected. Tennessee is 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten games as non-divisional road dog. Jets still haven't allowed a TD on defense- their opponents have run ball 33 times for total of 121 yards (3.7).
Jaguars (0-2) @ Texans (1-1)-- Home side won nine of last 12 series games, as Jags lost five of last six visits here, the last three by 20-14-13 points. Jaguars lost first two games, going 3/out eight times on 22 drives- they're 24-11 vs the spread in last 35 games as single digit underdog. Houston gave up 240 rushing yards last week, but averaged 9.2 yards/pass; they're 7-5 as home favorite the last 2+ years. Jags are 11-6-1 as road dog in divisional games since '01. Average total in last four series games, 55.6. In its brief history, Houston is 3-2 against spread when favored at home against a division rival.
Chiefs (0-2) @ Eagles (1-1)-- Kolb likely to start again with Eagles having bye next week; Vick will make Philly debut here in Wildcat sets, vs Chief defense that held Oakland to 7-24/99 passing last week, but gave up winning drive in last minute. KC lost to Raider team they outgained 409-166; they're 10-7 as a road underdog since '07. Interesting note for later in week-- Chiefs are 7-0 as a double digit dog since '02, 12-20-1 as single digit dog since '05, 6-9-1 as a road dog vs non-divisional foe. Philly covered seven of last nine as a home favorite. Home favorites are 5-7 vs spread in non-divisional games this season.
Browns (0-2) @ Ravens (2-0)-- Baltimore is 8-4 in last dozen series games, as Browns lost five of last six visits here, with all five losses by 10+ points- they are 1-5 vs spread as double digit dog since '07, 4-9 as divisional road dog since '04. Cleveland gave up 61 points in losing first two games by 14-21 points; in two games, they've been outrushed 411-143. Ravens had great win last week in San Diego; they've scored 69 points in first two games, outrushing opponents by 328-92, winning by 14-5 points, but could they be looking ahead to a game in Foxboro next week? Baltimore is 8-5 as divisional home favorite since 2003.
Giants (2-0) @ Buccaneers (0-2)-- Trap game for Giants, coming off couple of division rivalry wins, while Bucs lost first two games, giving up 34-33 points. Tampa allowed 336 yards on 59 rushes so far (5.7 ypc), bad news vs diverse Giant attack that averaged 8.3/8.7 ypa in first two games, but has struggled in red zone, kicking six FGs with no TDs in eight RZ drives. Big Blue is 11-4 as a road favorite since '05, 26-13 as single digit underdog since '05- they scored a defensive TD in both games this year. Bucs are 15-20 as single digit dog since 2004, but they are 5-1-1 vs spread as non-divisional home underdog since '00.
Redskins (1-1) @ Lions (0-2)-- Home team is 10-3 in last 13 series games, as Redskins won last three meetings vs Detroit by 7-31-8 points. Lions lost their last 19 games, are 12-27 as single digit dog since '05, 4-11-1 in last 16 games as a non-divisional home dog. Lions allowed nine TDs on 22 drives this year; foes are completing 80.6% of their passes. Underdog is 4-0-1 vs spread in last five Redskin games. Washington offense was putrid last week, with three FGs on four RZ trips, failing to score TD vs lowly Rams; they lost RG Thomas for season, but are 5-2-1 against the pointspread as road favorite since '05.
Packers (1-1) @ Rams (0-2)-- Green Bay OL is struggling; they've run ball for just 165 yards in two games, allowed 10 sacks; they've scored only one TD in second half, are on upset alert against hungry Ram club that showed defensive grit last week, holding Redskins without TD. St Louis lost its last 12 games, is 4-9 vs spread as home dog last two years, 5-18 in last 23 games as single digit dog. Green Bay is 8-5 as road favorite since '03, 12-8 in last 20 games as single digit favorite. Rams have one TD on 18 drives, completed only half its passes in losing first two games by 28-2. Average total in last five series tilts is 54.4.
49ers (2-0) @ Vikings (2-0)-- Week 3's only meeting of unbeatens; Niners lost last three visits here by 7-24-28 points (last two 40-16/35-7), but in winning first two games, 49ers held opponents to two TDs on 24 drives (11 3/outs), and allowed only 106 rushing yards, so good test here vs Peterson-led Viking attack that has 337 rushing yards in first two games, scoring seven TDs on 22 drives- they outscored foes 44-7 in second half of games, after trailing both by FG at the half. Vikings are 15-10 as single digit since '05, 14-9 as home favorite in non-divisional games. 49ers are 9-20-1 as non-divisional road underdog.
Falcons (2-0) @ Patriots (1-1)-- Belichick is 15-3 vs spread off a loss since '03 as BC alum Ryan returns to Beantown with 2-0 Falcon squad that is diverse on offense, stingy on defense, allowing three TDs on 19 drives in first two Ws. Patriots have +58 pass/run ratio so far, 14 more than any other team; they've scored only three TDs in eight red zone drives, as Welker's absence was huge in loss at Swamp last week. Patriots are 13-18-1 as home favorite since 2005, but 6-4 as non-divisional HF last two years. Falcons are 12-8 as road dog since '06, 9-4 in last thirteen games as non-divisional road underdog.
Bears (1-1) @ Seahawks (1-1)-- Hasselbeck is out (broken rib); Wallace isn't a quality backup (Seattle was shut out in second half last week, after a one-yard TD pass on first play after Hasselbeck got hurt), so Bears are favored on road after upsetting Steelers at home. Seattle is 14-9-1 vs spread off a loss since '05; they're 3-2-1 as home dog since '03. Since '06, Bears are just 1-5-1 vs spread if favored by 3 or less points- they've run ball for just 129 yards in first couple games. Seahawks have just one takeaway in splitting pair of division games. Chicago lost last four visits to Seattle, with their only win way back in 1976.
Saints (2-0) @ Bills (1-1)-- Payton's high-flying Saints scored 93 points in its first two wins, most points scored in Weeks 1-2 since 1968 Raiders scored 95. Road team won last four series games; Saints won two of last three visits here. Buffalo hasn't gone 3/out on 19 drives this year- they need to keep ball away from QB Brees, whose nine TD passes in two games are tied for most ever by NFL QB after two weeks. Bills are 7-4 as home dog since '06, 11-4 vs spread in last 15 non-divisional home games. Saints are 6-2 as road favorite since '05, they've got 11 TDs on 24 drives, converted 15 of 26 on third down (57.7%).
Dolphins (0-2) @ Chargers (1-1)-- Long trip on short work week for Miami club that had bitter home loss to Colts late Monday night. Dolphins won last seven games vs San Diego, winning last three here by 10-10-2 points. Fish are 9-5-2 as road dog since '07, 17-7-1 in last 25 games as non-divisional road dog. Bolts scored 10 or less points in five of last six series games- they're 16-10 as home favorite since '06, 13-9 as non-divisional HF since '03. Chargers didn't have TD (three FGs) in five red zone trips vs Ravens last week; they dropped back to pass 47 times, only ran it 21. Miami gave up 12.3 ypp Monday nite.
Steelers (1-1) @ Bengals (1-1)-- Pitt is 15-4 in last 19 series games, taking last five (last four by 11+ points); Steelers won last eight games here, none by less than six points- they covered 10 of last 14 as divisional road favorite, but are just 6-10 as road favorite overall since '06. Bengals have nine sacks so far, are 10-5 vs spread in last 15 games as underdog- they're 6-9 as home dog since '04. Pitt played pair of low scoring games so far (13-10/14-17) but didn't have any takeaways in rainy Chicago last week, first game without Polamalu at safety. Bengals allowed just 75-89 rushing yards in first two games, a good sign.
Broncos (2-0) @ Raiders (1-1)-- Oakland won two of last three in series, after losing previous five games; Denver won five of last six visits to Oakland, with four of five wins by 14+ points, but Shanahan had vendetta against his former boss Al Davis. These Broncos are 2-0; Nike Nolan's 3-4 defense allowed one TD on 22 drives (nine 3/outs); they've outrushed opponents 261-140. Russell has completed just 37.5% of passes so far- Raiders went 3/out on 11/21 drives they need more consistency under center. Oakland is 9-19-1 as home favorite this decade. Broncos covered two of their last nine AFC West road games.
Colts (2-0) @ Cardinals (1-1)-- Indy won first two games by 2-4 points, with Manning averaging 12.3 ypa Monday in Miami. Colt defense is giving up 4.7 ypc- their foes converted 21 of 36 on 3rd down. This is long road trip on short work week, but Colts are 7-1-1 vs spread this decade when dog of three or less points, 9-4-1 in last 14 games as road dog overall. Warner was 24-26 passing in easy win at Jacksonville last week; Cardinals are 11-9 as home fave since '05, 10-4 in last 14 games as non-divisional HF. Redbord defense faced Hill/Garrard in first two games, now takes major step up in QB competition vs Manning.
Free NFL pick from: Robert Ferringo
Take 'Under' 44.0 New York Giants at Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 27)
The Giants and the Bucs have each flown well over the total in each of their two games this year and each is a solid 5-1 against the total in its last six games through the preseason as well. However, this number is high. The last 10 meetings between these two teams have all gone ‘under’ the total, including a 24-14 grinder in the 2007 playoffs. The Giants are in a little bit of a flat spot here after their big road upset at Dallas Sunday night. It might be tough to get up for this game. Both clubs want to run the ball and bang heads, even though they have been putting up strong passing numbers. I just think that it turns into more of a field position game and I think that both offenses come way back down to earth this week. We’re looking at thunderstorms all weekend in Tampa and the ‘under’ is 6-1 in Tampa’s last seven games at home against a team with a winning record.
Take 'Under' 44.0 New York Giants at Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 27)
The Giants and the Bucs have each flown well over the total in each of their two games this year and each is a solid 5-1 against the total in its last six games through the preseason as well. However, this number is high. The last 10 meetings between these two teams have all gone ‘under’ the total, including a 24-14 grinder in the 2007 playoffs. The Giants are in a little bit of a flat spot here after their big road upset at Dallas Sunday night. It might be tough to get up for this game. Both clubs want to run the ball and bang heads, even though they have been putting up strong passing numbers. I just think that it turns into more of a field position game and I think that both offenses come way back down to earth this week. We’re looking at thunderstorms all weekend in Tampa and the ‘under’ is 6-1 in Tampa’s last seven games at home against a team with a winning record.
GT Bookie Battle 2009 (4-2) 2008 & 2007 (37-21-4)
Over the years I have followed the Bookies Battle in GamingToday and have posted the plays on this forum.
The angle is to fade those teams that clearly have over 70% of the casino contestants picking one side.
Over the last couple of years, it seemed to hit around 60% - 65%.The only problem: Not a lot of action.
Week #3 Picks… bet on: Sea, Ind
Over the years I have followed the Bookies Battle in GamingToday and have posted the plays on this forum.
The angle is to fade those teams that clearly have over 70% of the casino contestants picking one side.
Over the last couple of years, it seemed to hit around 60% - 65%.The only problem: Not a lot of action.
Week #3 Picks… bet on: Sea, Ind
