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Sunday Night Baseball: Braves at Phillies

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies

The teams are the same. Only the site changes, when the Phillies host the Braves Sunday night on ESPN for the second straight week.

Philadelphia sends Joe Blanton (8-6 3.88 ERA) to the hill against Jair Jurrjens (10-8 2.91 ERA) in a matchup of steady right-handers.

Off the Lidge

Phillies closer Brad Lidge has suffered through some tough times this season.

The All-Star closer leads the majors with nine blown saves, only three shy of tying Philadelphia's single-season record set by Mark Leiter in 1998. He threw a perfect inning against the Braves for his 26th save Friday. Lidge is 0-6 with a 7.17 ERA, worst among major league relievers with at least 30 innings pitched.

“I feel like I'm getting close. It's been a couple steps forward, a step back, a couple steps forward, another step back. The consistency hasn't been there. I feel good and healthy, and (fortunately) we're in first place," Lidge told the media.

"We signed Lidge to a three-year deal to be our closer," manager Charlie Manuel told reporters. "We had confidence in him, and he had confidence in us. Just because you don't do good today doesn't mean you won't do good tomorrow in baseball. Part of staying after it is you have to have confidence. I have confidence in all our players."

Quality road

43-3. That is the Braves' record when they get both a quality start from the rotation and score four or more runs in games played through August 23.

On the flip side, Phillies LHP Cliff Lee leads the majors in quality starts (23) this season.

Brave hearts

Thanks to a patchwork lineup, Atlanta’s fortunes have taken a tumble.

Injuries to center fielder Nate McLouth and infielder Martin Prado are beginning to take their toll.

The Braves' offense came to life when McLouth was installed as the leadoff hitter and Prado won the starting job at second base. Without their presence in the lineup, Atlanta has slipped back in the pack.

Prado came back for the Padres series after being absent with severe headaches, but McLouth, on the 15-day disabled list with a strained left hamstring, will not be activated until Monday at the earliest.

With outfielder Ryan Church and left fielder Garret Anderson in and out of the lineup with lower back ailments, the bench has become thin. Church was back in the starting lineup Friday against RHP Pedro Martinez. Church was removed in a double-switch in Friday's game because of the bad back.

Where’s the beef

Blanton has pitched well lately. Since giving up four runs against Toronto back on June 18, he hasn't allowed more than three runs in a start since then while compiling a solid 2.83 ERA in 11 starts during that span.

Like Blanton, Jurrjens has been pitching well with little support. He allowed just one run on five hits in 7.6 innings of work against the Padres Tuesday.

The fact of the matter is Jurrjens has followed up his breakthrough rookie season with an even better sophomore campaign, sporting a 2.91 ERA this season.

Sunday tendencies

The Braves 2-5 are away, while the Phillies are 14-4 at home.

Jurrjens has lost two straight on the day of rest while Blanton is 15-4 his last 19 team starts on Sundays, including 7-0 his last seven and 6-0 his last six home.
 

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axiumsports.com

August 30th 2009

*-Weekly System Picks. Please follow the system and do not increase your starting bet until you at least triple your account. -*

Current Bankroll=$2,746.95

Pick #19- Australia- A – League Soccer
19)Bet 162.77 to win 153.56 on Sydney FC/Wellington Phoenix UNDER 2.5 -106

Pick #20- Sweden- Allsvenskan Soccer-
20a)Bet 37.42 to win 35.98 on Kalmar/Hammarby OVER 2.5 -104

20b)Bet 341.82 to win 328.67 on Kalmar/Hammarby OVER 2.5 -104

Pick #21- Belgium- 1st Division Soccer
21aa)Bet 37.88 to win 35.40 on Anderlecht/Standard Liege OVER 2.5 -107
21ab)Bet 78.58 to win 73.44 on Anderlecht/Standard Liege OVER 2.5 -107

21ba)Bet 37.58 to win 35.12 on Anderlecht/Standard Liege OVER 2.5 -107
21bb)Bet 717.52 to win 670.86 on Anderlecht/Standard Liege OVER 2.5 -107
 

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Sean Michaels
Sunday's Pick 25 DIME PLAY

Chicago Bears

Note: I want you to purchase insurance on this play. If you have Chicago at +2 1/2, buy up the half-point to +3 to insure you get a push should the Bears lose by a field goal.

If you have Chicago at +3, buy the additional half-point to move the line to +3 1/2, which would result in you getting the win should the Bears lose by three points.

If this line happens to drop to +2, there is no need to purchase any insurance, but it still remains Sunday's lone release.

BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED---------------GL GUYS
 

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Craig Davis
Craig Davis Sunday's Lineup 50 DIME ---- TIGERS (With Verlander) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over RAYS (With Niemann)

Despite scoring just one run in yesterday's 3-1 loss to David Price and the Tampa Bay Rays, I still believe the Tigers are the best play on the board today because it's not very often Justin Verlander loses at home... especially during the day. A few untimely errors cost the Tigers a chance to win yesterday's contest, but I'm not sure they were in the right frame of mind to get it done anyhow, scoring just one run late in the game. Today, I can guarantee you those same players who committed the errors are looking to make amends and get this team back on the winning track.

You see, the Tigers play much better at home and must win these types of games if they want to keep their lead in the AL Central. Detroit is 41-21 at home while the Rays are just 27-37 on the road, and it's not often the Tigers lose a game at home when the series is on the line. After winning game one but dropping game two, this is a pivotal rubber match that has a decided pitching advantage for the home team. The aforementioned Verlander is not only 7-2 at home with a 2.23 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, but he's also 6-2 during day game starts with a miniscule 1.54 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, not to mention the fact opponents are hitting just .185 against him.

Critics will point to his rather "average" August as a reason to stay away, but I believe he's just about to turn it around just as he did in 2007... a similar season to 2009. After struggling much of August, he turned it around in his last start of that month (Aug. 27th) was a major home win over the Yankees... 16-0. He pitched 7 shutout innings in the win and that catapulted him back to the top of his game. That's going to happen again this afternoon, starting with the Rays at home.

Verlander went on to allow just one earned run in each of his next three starts and finished the season with five wins in his last seven starts... and it started with that late August shutout win over the Yankees. We have all the makings of a complete game shutout for Verlander this afternoon, and although I won't go that far, I will say that Verlander is well overdue for one of these types of performances, and the fact that the Rays seem to be in a bit of an offensive slump right now only makes things better for our side. The Tigers have won 10 of their last 13 home games, 6 of their last 7 Sunday starts, and 21 of their last 28 game after the opponent scores two or less runs with Verlander on the hill.

Tampa counters with Jeff Niemann, and although his season ERA is a respectable 3.87, it's hard to ignore the fact that he appears to be slowing down, showing signs of fatigue. After a stretch of games in which he pitched seven or more innings allowing just one or two runs, he's now on a run of four straight games going less than seven innings while allowing four or more earned runs in three of those four. His fastball has lost a little velocity and he's having some control problems with his breaking stuff, walking three runners in two his last three starts. Seriously, do you trust a guy like Niemann in a situation like this when each game becomes more and more like a playoff atmosphere? Or do you trust Verlander and his proven track record?

This one will be decided by the 7th inning. Tigers roll the Rays today.




BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------------------GL GUYS
 

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Dominic Fazzini
Sunday's play 20 Dime -- TWINS (Baker) over Rangers (Millwood
 
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John Ryan

Bonus Play

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers Aug 30 2009 2:05PM

Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Milwaukee as the face the Pirates set to start at 2:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 38-12 ATS for 76% winners since 2003. Play on all NL favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season and ERA >= 7.00 over his last 5 starts. Pirates are in a series of poor roles for this game noting they are just 7-26 (-16.6 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season; 2-16 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season; 8-32 (-17.9 Units) against the money line in road games versus a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 2 seasons. Take the Brewers.
 

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