Haven’t posted for awhile as things have been crazy around here. Anyway, hope everyone’s season is off to a great start! Enjoy the StatFox Monday Highlights and CFB trends for this weekend….
OAKLAND (1 - 1) at DENVER (2 - 0)
Week 3 Monday, 9/22/2003 9:05 PM
Line: DENVER -5
StatFox Super Situations favoring OAKLAND to cover the spread
Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DENVER) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first half of the season. (78-44 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.9%, +29.6 units. Rating = 2*)
Play On - Road underdogs or pick (OAKLAND) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, in the first half of the season. (77-42 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.7%, +30.8 units. Rating = 2*)
The StatFox Game Estimator projects a 21-19 Oakland win in this game. The yardage is expected to be close to even 334-336.
StatFox Situational Power Trends favoring OAKLAND to cover the spread
* OAKLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was OAKLAND 29.7, OPPONENT 14.5 - (Rating = 0*)
* OAKLAND is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. The average score was OAKLAND 20.6, OPPONENT 21.5 - (Rating = 1*)
* Over the last three years though, Denver is 1-10 ATS at home off a SU win
* DENVER is 6-20 ATS (-16.0 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1992. The average score was DENVER 22.8, OPPONENT 25.5 - (Rating = 2*)
Over the last three years though, Denver is 1-10 ATS at home off a SU win
Key Stats
There are few key numbers that I’m looking at for tonight’s game: Denver, despite being 2-0, is even with its opponents in a key stat I like to use for handicapping NFL games, PYA (pass yards per attempt) 5.4 to 5.4. Also, Oakland has been stout against the run in its first two games, yielding just 3.1 ypc. Finally, Denver’s two opponents thus far have combined for an 0-6 record.
Major League Baseball
NY YANKEES (97 - 58) at CHI WHITE SOX (81 - 74)
Monday, 9/22/2003 8:05 PM
DAVID WELLS (L) vs. BARTOLO COLON (R)
Line: NY YANKEES +100 Ov 9,+100
The New York Yankees can clinch their sixth consecutive American League East Division title on Monday when they begin a three-game series against the Chicago White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field. New York has won 13 of 15 games, Chicago has lost eight of 11.
StatFox Super Situations favoring NY YANKEES against the money line
* Play Against - Any team (CHI WHITE SOX) - after 4 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base, starting a pitcher who is working on 3 or less days rest.
(35-14 since 1997.) (71.4%, +26.5 units. Rating = 4*)
* Play Against - Any team (CHI WHITE SOX) - after 5 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base, starting a pitcher who is working on 3 or less days rest.
(23-7 since 1997.) (76.7%, +19.3 units. Rating = 4*)
StatFox Matchup Power Trends against similar type opponents favoring NY YANKEES to win against the money line
* WELLS is 48-12 (+31.0 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record) The average score was WELLS 6.5, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 3*)
* COLON is 1-5 (-5.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was COLON 2.5, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 0*)
StatFox Situational Power Trends favoring NY YANKEES to win against the money line
WELLS is 32-9 (+16.2 Units) against the money line when his team is off a win over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was WELLS 6.6, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*)
COLON is 1-5 (-5.6 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season. (Team's Record) The average score was COLON 3.2, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 0*)
MLB “Trend of the day” to keep an eye on in the Atlanta/ Florida game: Hampton/Redman
* HAMPTON is 26-2 (+22.8 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 since 1997. (Team's Record) The average score was HAMPTON 6.2, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 5*)
College Football Trends for next week (Saturday 9/27/03)
* Arizona/TCU: Arizona’s recent record as a home dog, just 2-10 ATS since ’99
* Utah/Colorado St: Utah has been a stellar road underdog, going 17-3 ATS since '94.
* Hawaii/Rice: Hawaii is one of the nation’s coldest ATS teams (1-7 ATS last eight, also ND, A&M)
* Buffalo/Akron: Buffalo 1-8-1 ATS run last 10
* FL/Kentucky: Florida 16 straight wins in series/ 11-5 ATS in that span
* Temple/Louisville: Temple 11-3 ATS run as a DD underdog
* Cincy/Miami Ohio: Cincy 7-1 ATS stretch on the road
* Iowa/Michigan St: Iowa 12-2 ATS run overall, and 9-2 ATS run vs MSU
* Iowa St/N ILL: N Ill 10-1 ATS run overall, 8-2 ATS in non-conference games
* Arizona St/Oregon St: Home team 14-2 ATS, OSU one SU win only, OSU 12-3 ATS Pac 10 home, ASU 3-9 ATS road dog
* LA Monroe/Utah ST: LAM 9-3 ATS in conference play, 5-1 on the road
OAKLAND (1 - 1) at DENVER (2 - 0)
Week 3 Monday, 9/22/2003 9:05 PM
Line: DENVER -5
StatFox Super Situations favoring OAKLAND to cover the spread
Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DENVER) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first half of the season. (78-44 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.9%, +29.6 units. Rating = 2*)
Play On - Road underdogs or pick (OAKLAND) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, in the first half of the season. (77-42 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.7%, +30.8 units. Rating = 2*)
The StatFox Game Estimator projects a 21-19 Oakland win in this game. The yardage is expected to be close to even 334-336.
StatFox Situational Power Trends favoring OAKLAND to cover the spread
* OAKLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was OAKLAND 29.7, OPPONENT 14.5 - (Rating = 0*)
* OAKLAND is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. The average score was OAKLAND 20.6, OPPONENT 21.5 - (Rating = 1*)
* Over the last three years though, Denver is 1-10 ATS at home off a SU win
* DENVER is 6-20 ATS (-16.0 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1992. The average score was DENVER 22.8, OPPONENT 25.5 - (Rating = 2*)
Over the last three years though, Denver is 1-10 ATS at home off a SU win
Key Stats
There are few key numbers that I’m looking at for tonight’s game: Denver, despite being 2-0, is even with its opponents in a key stat I like to use for handicapping NFL games, PYA (pass yards per attempt) 5.4 to 5.4. Also, Oakland has been stout against the run in its first two games, yielding just 3.1 ypc. Finally, Denver’s two opponents thus far have combined for an 0-6 record.
Major League Baseball
NY YANKEES (97 - 58) at CHI WHITE SOX (81 - 74)
Monday, 9/22/2003 8:05 PM
DAVID WELLS (L) vs. BARTOLO COLON (R)
Line: NY YANKEES +100 Ov 9,+100
The New York Yankees can clinch their sixth consecutive American League East Division title on Monday when they begin a three-game series against the Chicago White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field. New York has won 13 of 15 games, Chicago has lost eight of 11.
StatFox Super Situations favoring NY YANKEES against the money line
* Play Against - Any team (CHI WHITE SOX) - after 4 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base, starting a pitcher who is working on 3 or less days rest.
(35-14 since 1997.) (71.4%, +26.5 units. Rating = 4*)
* Play Against - Any team (CHI WHITE SOX) - after 5 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base, starting a pitcher who is working on 3 or less days rest.
(23-7 since 1997.) (76.7%, +19.3 units. Rating = 4*)
StatFox Matchup Power Trends against similar type opponents favoring NY YANKEES to win against the money line
* WELLS is 48-12 (+31.0 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record) The average score was WELLS 6.5, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 3*)
* COLON is 1-5 (-5.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was COLON 2.5, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 0*)
StatFox Situational Power Trends favoring NY YANKEES to win against the money line
WELLS is 32-9 (+16.2 Units) against the money line when his team is off a win over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was WELLS 6.6, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*)
COLON is 1-5 (-5.6 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season. (Team's Record) The average score was COLON 3.2, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 0*)
MLB “Trend of the day” to keep an eye on in the Atlanta/ Florida game: Hampton/Redman
* HAMPTON is 26-2 (+22.8 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 since 1997. (Team's Record) The average score was HAMPTON 6.2, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 5*)
College Football Trends for next week (Saturday 9/27/03)
* Arizona/TCU: Arizona’s recent record as a home dog, just 2-10 ATS since ’99
* Utah/Colorado St: Utah has been a stellar road underdog, going 17-3 ATS since '94.
* Hawaii/Rice: Hawaii is one of the nation’s coldest ATS teams (1-7 ATS last eight, also ND, A&M)
* Buffalo/Akron: Buffalo 1-8-1 ATS run last 10
* FL/Kentucky: Florida 16 straight wins in series/ 11-5 ATS in that span
* Temple/Louisville: Temple 11-3 ATS run as a DD underdog
* Cincy/Miami Ohio: Cincy 7-1 ATS stretch on the road
* Iowa/Michigan St: Iowa 12-2 ATS run overall, and 9-2 ATS run vs MSU
* Iowa St/N ILL: N Ill 10-1 ATS run overall, 8-2 ATS in non-conference games
* Arizona St/Oregon St: Home team 14-2 ATS, OSU one SU win only, OSU 12-3 ATS Pac 10 home, ASU 3-9 ATS road dog
* LA Monroe/Utah ST: LAM 9-3 ATS in conference play, 5-1 on the road
