I agree with your comment that it wasn't obvious that interceptions would win the game for the Patriots, but I will disagree your use of this:
"New England was the 4th Best Run Defense, but 17th in Defense vs. Opponent's Passing Yards/Game."
There is some kind of saying about "such-and-such conclusion based on a faulty premise." Fezzik would probably know the actual wording better than I, but it applies here.
It's common for teams with winning records to be ranked high against the rush and low against the pass. They are often leading, and their opponents tend to abandon the run and pass on every down. It's not that their pass defenses are so weak, it's that they face so many more passing plays, so the stats can't be taken at face value. Tennessee, Minnesota, Green Bay, Seattle, Kansas City, Carolina, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Miami all came into this week giving up more passings yards per game than the 17th-ranked Patriots, and they all have winning records, too.
"New England was the 4th Best Run Defense, but 17th in Defense vs. Opponent's Passing Yards/Game."
There is some kind of saying about "such-and-such conclusion based on a faulty premise." Fezzik would probably know the actual wording better than I, but it applies here.
It's common for teams with winning records to be ranked high against the rush and low against the pass. They are often leading, and their opponents tend to abandon the run and pass on every down. It's not that their pass defenses are so weak, it's that they face so many more passing plays, so the stats can't be taken at face value. Tennessee, Minnesota, Green Bay, Seattle, Kansas City, Carolina, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Miami all came into this week giving up more passings yards per game than the 17th-ranked Patriots, and they all have winning records, too.
Fez,
I don't think anyone said "what were you thinking?". The game played pretty close to the line so no one could get excited one way or the other. I just cringed at your picks because call me public, but I always will side with the favorites at this time of year, selected favorites mind you. If you take a dog at this time of year you really have to be sure a motivated effort will be shown and that is very hard to ask for from teams with nothing to play for. Not to mention my favorite angle, more so in the colleges, is that most teams that are winning are generally healthier than the losing teams as the season winds down and that is a big factor. I don't like laying big chalk on the road, but I felt the Pats and Ravens laying just a FG was a fair price for teams that are far more talented and playing better at this time of the season, not to mention have more to play for. The public usually gets caught up in games like Tampa where the number just starts shooting up to where a cover is difficult, but these two teams stayed at reasonable numbers so I felt they were good chalk plays. I agree with you though, it is dangerous to make a habit out of playing a lot of favorites, especially road favorites, but in the last two weeks of the year I think a lot of value disappears betting on teams having poor seasons coming to a close.
I don't think anyone said "what were you thinking?". The game played pretty close to the line so no one could get excited one way or the other. I just cringed at your picks because call me public, but I always will side with the favorites at this time of year, selected favorites mind you. If you take a dog at this time of year you really have to be sure a motivated effort will be shown and that is very hard to ask for from teams with nothing to play for. Not to mention my favorite angle, more so in the colleges, is that most teams that are winning are generally healthier than the losing teams as the season winds down and that is a big factor. I don't like laying big chalk on the road, but I felt the Pats and Ravens laying just a FG was a fair price for teams that are far more talented and playing better at this time of the season, not to mention have more to play for. The public usually gets caught up in games like Tampa where the number just starts shooting up to where a cover is difficult, but these two teams stayed at reasonable numbers so I felt they were good chalk plays. I agree with you though, it is dangerous to make a habit out of playing a lot of favorites, especially road favorites, but in the last two weeks of the year I think a lot of value disappears betting on teams having poor seasons coming to a close.
Jets IMO was clearly the WRONG side, Chad Pennington is highly overrated, guy is not a playmaker and good D's exspose bad qbs. Vinny is much better. Couch lost the Ram game single handidly. When you take Underdogs you better have a good back door Qb, not guys like Bledsoe, Pennington, Couch.
to show you how fickle the gambling gods can be - to get to the finals - fezzik kicked some major league ass - winning 3 rounds to get here and posting some impressive numbers along the way.
yet in the finals - OUCH! 1-6 and really none of the 6 losses were close (ok - maybe 1 - nyj - but the other 5 fezz NEVER had a chance).
fezz - why did you let anthony richkas pick for you in the finals
yet in the finals - OUCH! 1-6 and really none of the 6 losses were close (ok - maybe 1 - nyj - but the other 5 fezz NEVER had a chance).
fezz - why did you let anthony richkas pick for you in the finals
looks like Steve is below 500 on his 80 hilton picks and Ive been told he isnt doing so hot in college football either, his football handicapping style has some major flaws IMO. He marrys underdogs and doesnt seem to have a grasp of what football is about. I do find the guy entertaining and enjoy his posts though.
Contests, tout services just aren't a
good way to judge a players success.
I happen to know the guy did just fine
this year with his real-money wagering.
Contests are contests and sometimes you
have to play them a lot differently. Just
check out the thread on a contest here
where the guy played it exactly right
and it had nothing to do with handicapping.
http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=988094022&m=37010998
Rail, what do you see as his "major flaws"
in the handicappig area? This is a serious
question so please be specific because I
really want to learn here. Thanks.
good way to judge a players success.
I happen to know the guy did just fine
this year with his real-money wagering.
Contests are contests and sometimes you
have to play them a lot differently. Just
check out the thread on a contest here
where the guy played it exactly right
and it had nothing to do with handicapping.
http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=988094022&m=37010998
Rail, what do you see as his "major flaws"
in the handicappig area? This is a serious
question so please be specific because I
really want to learn here. Thanks.
