Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 12 college football picks, bets and nuggets
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIAL"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica preview Week 12 of the 2022 college football season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Odds and lines are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Records:
The Bear (Last week: 1-2. Season: 37-18-1)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 1-2. Season: 23-20-1)
The plays
No. 7 USC Trojans (-2.5, 76) at No. 16 UCLA Bruins
The Bear: UCLA gave up a few too many big plays and just might have gotten caught looking ahead last week vs. Arizona, which also played USC tough earlier this year. There's no better way to bounce back off an upset loss than a game against your rival, one which has garnered all the attention and spotlight over the past 11 months even as the Bruins hung 62 on the Trojans last year. No Travis Dye could wind up being a huge deal for SC in this game. This game has flown over totals in the mid-60s the past three years and that number has rightly been adjusted. But I believe UCLA bounces back and gets the win.
Pick: UCLA +2.5
No. 4 TCU Horned Frogs (-2.5, 58) at Baylor Bears
The Bear: If TCU can get out of Waco with a win, it would be the Horned Frogs most impressive victory of the season. The spot screams Baylor. The Bears were embarrassed on their home field last week. TCU won a close, physical battle at Texas and now are three wins away from a CFP berth. It's getting more real for the Frogs now. A two-point loss to TCU last year may have kept Baylor from a CFP berth and after allowing better than 61% conversions on third down last week and committing two turnovers, I'd expect a cleaner game from Baylor and give it a great shot to hand TCU its first loss.
Pick: Baylor +2.5
Fresno State Bulldogs at Nevada Wolfpack (+22.5, 54.5)
Stanford Steve: We lost last week taking the Bulldogs on the road laying double digits because UNLV decided to kick a field goal with 10 seconds left. Well, we're going right back and taking the "Road Dogs" this week in Reno. Fresno State is averaging over 41 points per game in its past four games and Nevada is giving up over 30 points per game this season, including 41 last week to Boise State.
Pick: Fresno State -22.5 (Fresno State 41 Nevada 17)
UAB Blazers at No. 6 LSU Tigers (-14.5, 52.5)
The Bear: This is a total situational play. LSU the past four weeks has won at Florida, rallied for a season-changing victory against Ole Miss, pulled an improbable upset over Alabama and gutted out a win at Arkansas. How much more does LSU have in the tank after the physical and emotional toll of the last month? It's Tiger Stadium at night, so there's always that danger, but UAB has a really good back in DeWayne McBride, who might be able to help shorten the game. I just wonder if this is a "catch your breath" week before the trip to A&M and the SEC Championship Game.
Pick: UAB +14.5
UConn Huskies at Army Black Knights (-10, 43.5)
Stanford Steve: Let me get this straight ... a 3-6 team is giving a red-hot 6-5 team 10 points? The 3-6 Cadets have scored a total of 16 points in their past two games. Army also has one win over an FBS team this season so far. But I think the Huskies might still be partying in Storrs after winning three straight and won't be ready for an opponent of this caliber. I'll take the home team and give the points here.
Pick: Army -10 (Army 31, UConn 14)
Stanford Cardinal at California Golden Bears (-5, 46.5)
The Bear: What could be better than Cal on a six-game losing streak vs. a Stanford team that has scored 16, 15, 13, 14 and seven points in the past five games? It sure looks like the stamp has been licked, the envelope sealed and the season is in the mail for the Cardinal. At least Cal has shown some fight lately, and it's a rare chance to beat up on Stanford, which has owned the rivalry lately.
Pick: Cal -5
Stanford Steve: Cal ran for 9 yards last week at Oregon State, while Stanford ran for 22 yards at Utah. It's not feeling like a high-powered offensive game on either side when these teams meet Saturday in Berkeley. I do feel like Cal is better in the run game with Jaydn Ott getting the bulk of the carries. Both of these teams have combined for nine straight losses, and while it won't be the best played game, it is a rivalry game. I'll take the home team and lay the points.
Pick: Cal -5 and under 46.5 (Cal 10, Stanford 3)
The Bear's money-line parlay
Like some big favorites but don't want to lay the points? Here are some to parlay together.$100 returns $82
Last Week: -100
Season: -90
Florida State Seminoles -3000
Tennessee Volunteers -1700
Penn State Nittany Lions -1100
Clemson Tigers -1100
Michigan Wolverines -1100
Georgia Bulldogs -2000
North Carolina Tar Heels -1600
Air Force Falcons -2200
Notre Dame Fighting Irish -2000
Fresno State Bulldogs -2100
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line
Last Week: 1-3, -0.9 unitsSeason: 12-32, -13.15 units
UCLA Bruins +110
Baylor Bears +125
Nebraska Cornhuskers +375
Duke Blue Devils +250
Bear bytes
No. 1 Georgia is favored by 22.5 at Kentucky, No. 2 Ohio State is favored by 27.5 at Maryland and No. 3 Michigan is favored by 18 over Illinois. That continues a trend this season illustrating the separation between the top of the rankings and everyone else.Entering this week, top 3 teams have played 31 games this year, with one top-3 matchup between Georgia and Tennessee. On average, the 30 favorites were favored by 29 PPG.
Even if you limit it to the seven games vs. ranked teams, those seven favorites were favored by an average of 14 PPG. Only one game saw a single-digit spread, Alabama's loss at Tennessee as a nine-point favorite. But let's keep fooling ourselves that expanding the playoff will generate different teams winning.
No. 4 TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears
This is the first time a team 10-0 or better has been favored by a field goal or fewer in a regular-season game since 2015 when 11-0 Iowa was a two-point favorite at 5-6 Nebraska and won 28-20.
No. 7 USC Trojans at No. 16 UCLA Bruins
The past three years have seen the total close at 66, 65 and 65.5 in this game. Those games have produced 87, 81 and 95 points.
No. 10 Utah Utes at No. 12 Oregon Ducks
This is the first time since 2015 Oregon is favored over Utah. The Ducks have been an underdog each of the past six games vs. the Utes.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Iowa State Cyclones
After last week's loss to Oklahoma State, Iowa State is now 5-17 under Matt Campbell (1-5 this year) in games with a spread between +3.5 and -3.5.
UConn Huskies at Army Black Knights
UConn is 9-2 ATS this season, having covered seven straight, including outright underdog wins vs. Fresno State, Boston College and Liberty.
Texas Longhorns at Kansas Jayhawks
The Longhorns have failed to cover each of the past five and seven of the past nine vs. Kansas. In the past three years, Texas has been favored by 31, 21 and 15 and those games resulted in a one-point loss, two-point win and seven-point win.
No. 22 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Oklahoma Sooners
This is the seventh time OU is favored in a Big 12 game this year. OU is 1-5 ATS and 2-4 SU in the previous six games.
