Stander's Super 14: Week 3

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Odds to Win the Competition:
Sharks 10-1
Blues 12-1
Waratahs 10-1

Above plays all 1 unit.

Record:
1 unit plays: 1-0
2 unit plays: 0-3
5 unit plays: 1-0

Unit Total: -0.3

Going to try to get on the plus side of things this coming weekend.

GL everyone!
 

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hi stander, how r u? im a super 14 fan as well, i follow act brumbies but will be supporting melbourne rebels when they come in next year. im sure we can help each other with the matches this season.
im 8-4 +7.6 units @ tsg forum or sbr. u will get more input from these guys plus covers(rugby) as well. gud luk
 

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good steady start stander. great call on Force game last week - they were always going to have trouble staying with them as the game wore on

looking forward to this week
 

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Alright skywalker and melbourne!

Mel, you must be a right hapy camper about now with that W at Newlands! Can't believe Pitersen fluffed that last kick!

Looks like my sharks are going for the wooden soon so far! Futures bets, gotta lov 'em. Feel lke a twit for not taking 10-1 on the Bully boys.... ah well.

Here are my (square) plays this weekend:

Hurricanes -24 over Lions (2 units)
Blue Bulls -14 over Waratahs (2 units)
 

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The Bulls -14: Upgraded to 5 units

Yes, the Tahs, a side that I expected to be a lot better than they are at this point, looked decent for most of the match against the Stormers in Capetown (as decent as any side could look on that abismal pitch), play possession rugby, and scrum. But they are not facing the Stormers at sea-level this weekend. They are going to be fronting up the beast-men from the high vedlt at altitude in fortress Loftus.

One would want to give the Tahs a pass on their putrid offense last week because they were playing on (nearly) freshly laid sod and it was an ugly spectacle on both sides. However, when you look at their showing in week 1, they didn't do much better: one solid try scored, and one piece of luck at the end. This team needs to change what they're doing with the ball and against the Bully Boys in Pretoria is just not the place to work the kinks out of the system.

The Waratahs, two-time finalists and fifth last season, have reacted to last week's 27-6 loss to the Western Stormers in Cape Town by shifting Wallabies recruit Berrick Barnes to inside-centre and bringing in Daniel Halangahu at fly-half.

OK, let's have that one again -- a side looking to retool what they do on the offensive side of the ball is going with a new man at the pivot against the defending champions who have scored more than 100 total points the last two games!? It might work for the Tahs but I'm going to bet there there will be more than a few cock-ups - especially at first.

Then, even if things come together for the back row after some initial misfirings, the second half of the game will set in and the altitude will start to work on the Tahs pack, and that's when that meatgrinder known as the Blou Bulle start grinding.

In addition, the fans in Pretoria might play "Delarey" pregame but they should change the words to "Victor Matfield." When you look at the above and add the fact that big #5 was cleared to play (after that overdramatised incident with Rocky Elsom last week) and the Bulle will have their field marshall commanding the troops from the front -- you've got to feel like you're looking at a 3 try + margin of victory for the home team.
 

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The Hurricanes -24

I had really hoped we would get more value on the Hurricans here as the Lions scored 65 points last week. But the Chiefs were dogging it at altitude in Joberg and played worse defense than a drunken high school girl in the backseat of a car. That will not happen against this Hurricanes side.

Dick Muir's strategy of all-out attack will be exploited by a Hurricanes side that is more disciplined and more skilled. 9 All Blacks are on the Hurricanes roster while only 3 Springboks play for the Lions (REALLY ONLY ONE - Jaque Fourie is the only man with more than 1 cap/appearance).

But wait -- the Lions are going to be sporting some new players on arrival in Wellington! A lot of these guys -- this will no doubt be their first tour of NZ!
* Replacement George Earl at Lock will be playing his first superrugby game
* The team will have a new man at the pivot (flyhalf) and as I mentioned, this is kind of like having a new quarterback (or at least offensive coordinator) in american football.

Th below article in itals from Rugby Week
Lions director of coaching Dick Muir, has made only one enforced change to his starting line-up from the side beaten 72-65 by the Chiefs last weekend, for Saturday's Super 14 match against the Hurricanes in Wellington.

Experienced lock Willem Stoltz, who is suspended for this match, is replaced by new cap George Earl.

It will be the acquisition from Boland's first cap for the Lions and also his Super 14 debut. He leapfrogs Jacques Lombaard, who remains on the bench, into the starting team.

On the bench Muir has opted for centre Walter Venter (pictured) as replacement in stead of flyhalf Burton Francis.

His reasoning is the Lions centres have had two tough matches against big opponents and that a rest for one of them would be a good thing at this stage.

Earl Rose will cover for Carlos Spencer at flyhalf.

The withdrawal of No 8 Jonathan Mokuena before the tour left a loose forward vacancy on the bench and Mokuena's replacement in the tour squad, Robert Kruger, will now be on the bench for the match.


Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have only conceded 5 tries so far (2 v the Blues and 3 to the Force) and technically that gives them the #2 D behind the Stormers (who were aided mightily by the nonstop rains in Capetown last week and the condition of their pitch). Even though these stats mean relatively little at this point in the competition, I put it out there that the Lions sure as hell are not going to score 9 tries. I will be really surprised if they get more than two.

Intangibles:
All Black (national team) Lock Jason Eaton returns for the Canes.
1450.jpg

Never never NEVER underestimate the power of the mullet!!
 

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Oh this is not looking good, not looking good at all!
 

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Wow, Just call me the Brandon Lang of southern hemisphere rugby.

-8 units for 3 weeks. Jesus.

I actually thought the Bulls had a chance ot cover at theend but that slow start just killed them.

The Waratahs showed some real quality I didn't think they had today. I was impressed.
 

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