Spreadproof - Superthread - Start going 100% in the NBA

[Paddywack]

The forum is acting crazy today. When I made my post above spreadproof's pick was not there.

 

[spreadproof]

ya its also doubling posts..??

 

[hcskip]

Forum is acting a little buggy. It just lost my quick post.

 

[Funniemon]

anybody like new orleans plus 5 for second half?

 

[dlew2k]

I dont think my sportsbook beted.com allows me to purchase lines.

yes you can with BetEd. click on the line itself and a drop down window opens up to allow you to buy up to 3 pts

 

[roc18]

Play 12/25/2008

Happy holidays to everyone, just 1 single unit play for today.

Basketball - 705 Boston Celtics +2 -110 for Game

I bought the point to +3. You don't have to buy the point it should be Boston -2 by my numbers, but I am going to start tweaking my own lines to get this win rate higher for me personally, I am not going to try and load up my reco with it, for reco purposes the play above is the play. On the 23 all of the small spread losses could have been avoided with some line purchasing. IMO its worth the juice if it means a lot more wins. Again, enough line value here to just play it straight.

I dont think my sportsbook beted.com allows me to purchase lines.

 

[spreadproof]

you don't have to purchase.. I just said for me it is a personal choice, Boston +2 is still a great play.


12/25/08 Large Spread Lean

Personally I have given up on large spreads, but for those of you that want to look closer and decide my methods lean on Cleveland -15.5 up to -24. Presently I am 50/50 on large spreads so please look at the game yourself and decide if you want to risk it.

 

[Sea-Urchin]

I don't see how WAS can keep up with the CAVS in Cleveland.

 

[hcskip]

The question is, can the CAVS beat the spread? I'm on them in a parlay, will likely buy a straight bet on them later today.

 

[ECC]

Spread, is there a difference in record when spreads are 10pts + when their home FAVs or away FAVs?

 

[spreadproof]

Spread, is there a difference in record when spreads are 10pts + when their home FAVs or away FAVs?

Well the other night we had 3 large spread home teams, 1 covered, 1 missed by a point and the other was 6 points short. IMO we were on the right side on 1, unlucky on the 2nd and on the wrong side on the third as the team that was 6 points short never had a real solid lead they were able to maintain in that game.

In back testing large spreads were more 50/50 they came out slightly ahead but not enough to make them worth while. I noticed that one person was using them as addon plays money line in his parlay bets, that might ad 10% to your parlay and the odds of losing it straight are slim.

 

[ECC]

gotcha....looking forward to today! after that one-sided ref display in yesterdays plays.

 

[spreadproof]

Refs definitely gave us a nice xmas pounding, but that is part of the risk in this life. Anyway a lot of picks tonight for the bounce back.

PLAYS 12/26/2008

1 Unit on each, you don’t have to buy the points on any game but I did on certain games. I also recommend .5 unit on a parlay without boston, .5 on a 4pt teaser with all the picks. .25 on a parlay with boston. If you are able buy pts in each pick in your parlay, I personally did it with 1.5 in each game. Pays less, but would of cashed 2/3 in the past 4 days.

So 1.25 units of funny business and 6 units on the straights.

Basketball - 504 New York Knicks -5½ -130 buying 1 for Game
Basketball - 506 New Jersey Nets -5 -110 for Game
Basketball - 510 New Orleans Hornets pk -110 for Game
Basketball - 513 Dallas Mavericks +4½ -130 buying 1 for Game
Basketball - 516 Denver Nuggets -5½ -130 buying 1 for Game
Basketball - 519 Boston Celtics -9½ -130 buying 1 for Game

-------------------------------------------------------------

Bankroll management, Decide your risk tolerance and go with whatever matches. Do not immediately re-divide, after a night of winners, do it once per month.

Aggressive Growth = 1 unit = 1/15 of your total bankroll
Moderate Growth = 1 unit - 1/20 of your total bankroll
Conservative Growth = 1 unit - 1/30 of your total bankroll

If you want to accuse me of being a book when I lose one I recommend you go with conservative growth as you do not belong in this game at all. You do not make or break yourself in one night of sports, this isn't the lottery.

 

[indiana]

S.P.......

thank you and g/l with the plays........

indy

 

[spreadproof]

Yw Indy,

Decided probably a good idea to post the reco as the title of the thread isn't accurate. :-(

TD Reco: Straights 9-5 (+3.5 units) Parlays (0-3) -2.5 Units

 

[roc18]

Are those point spreads before or after you bought points?

 

[roc18]

after I bought. if they say "-130 buying 1 for Game" that means I paid 130 juice to buy a point and the line listed is after the purchase of the point.

Are the picks still good even if I dont buy the 1.5 points

 

[spreadproof]

Are those point spreads before or after you bought points?

after I bought. if they say "-130 buying 1 for Game" that means I paid 130 juice to buy a point and the line listed is after the purchase of the point.

 

[seanjohn007]

thanks for all you time spread, i followed you on a couple winners before so i appreciate it. i was just curious if you would be willing to rank you picks from strongest to weakest. i like most of your picks just kinda scared to pull the trigger on one or two lol. also has this new system ever givin you a losing night? again thanks for all the time you put into this spreadproof

 

[Lionman]

Still in the black... as long as I'm not paying the damn book we are all good....