South Florida vs Ball State 9/22/2012

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South Florida is a heavy favorite winning 81% of simulations over Ball State. B.J. Daniels is averaging 238 passing yards and 1.84 TDs per simulation and Demetris Murray is projected for 80 rushing yards and a 78% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 19% of simulations where Ball State wins, Keith Wenning averages 1.62 TD passes vs 0.58 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.88 TDs to 0.69 interceptions. Jahwan Edwards averages 61 rushing yards and 0.59 rushing TDs when Ball State wins and 54 yards and 0.35 TDs in losses. South Florida has a 37% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 87% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is BALL +13

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