"Sorry Dems! It's Official. Recession Started Under Clinton"
Posted by the ChronWatch Founder, Jim Sparkman
Thursday, January 22, 2004
Well, it's getting harder and harder to be a Democratic candidate. First, they loved saying that the economy plunged into the tank on Bush's watch. But then the economy turns around resulting in growth in the third quarter at the best pace in twenty years. But the Dems still cling to the notion that the recession is Bush's responsibility. What's this? Out comes the defintive study by the group that officially defines recessionary periods. The decision by this group is that the economy slipped into recession during Bill Clinton's administration. This Bloomberg News Story sets the record straight on the ''Clinton recession.''
The U.S. economy slipped into recession during Democrat Bill Clinton's presidency rather than under President George W. Bush, the group that officially sets the timing of the country's business cycles may decide.
The seven-member Business Cycle Dating Committee of the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based National Bureau of Economic Research may change its determination that the recession started in March 2001 to reflect recent revisions to government growth statistics, committee members, including Victor Zarnowitz, said.
''We are discussing it now, and in my opinion it should be changed,'' Zarnowitz, a senior fellow at the Conference Board in New York, said in an interview. ''The recession started in December 2000.'' Zarnowitz said he was speaking for himself and not for the committee.
Such a change might help Republicans deflect a principal criticism of Democrats seeking to unseat Bush in this year's presidential election. Bush took office in January 2001.
Rolling back the recession's start would be ''worth a few political points,'' said Larry Sabato, professor of political science at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville. ''Rhetorically, it's much better for the president to say he inherited a recession and is turning it around.''
The committee's review has been triggered in part by revised Commerce Department figures last month showing that g**** domestic product shrank in the third quarter of 2000 instead of beginning its slide in the first three months of 2001.
''On Our Doorstep''
''As the new numbers have come in, it's very clear that the recession wasn't just on our doorstep when the new administration came in, it was there in the living room,'' Stephen Friedman, head of Bush's National Economic Council, said in an interview from Washington yesterday with Dallas radio station WBAP.
Other Bush administration officials, including Labor Secretary Elaine Chao have said on several occasions--inaccurately, according to the group's current determination--that Bush inherited the recession from Clinton.
''Clearly it was earlier than March,'' Martin Feldstein, the NBER's president and a member of the committee, said in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. ''Our job is to pick a month and we want to wait until the Commerce Department has given us all the monthly data so we're not in a position to reconsider more than once.''
G**** Domestic Product
Feldstein, an informal advisor to Bush, is often touted as a possible successor to Alan Greenspan when the Fed chairman's term ends in January 2006 and he must leave the central bank.
While giving heavy emphasis to changes in GDP, the committee also considers ''a wide range of indicators of economic activity'' in determining the beginnings and ends of business cycles, according to the group's Web site.
Among the other indicators are employment, industrial production, inflation-adjusted data for manufacturing, trade and personal income.
The current debate centers on whether g**** domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced, or employment paints a more accurate picture of changes in the economy.
The economists' group announced in November 2001 that the recession had begun in March of that year, after Labor Department figures showed the number of workers on payrolls peaked that month. Subsequent revisions to the employment data put the job peak in February 2001 at a record 132.56 million workers. In December of last year, 130.12 million were employed.
''Reconsideration''
Last month, the revised GDP figures showed that the world's largest economy shrank at a 0.5 percent annual pace from July through September 2000 rather than expanded 0.6 percent as originally estimated, the revised figures showed. After rebounding in the last three months of 2000, g**** domestic product fell in each of the following three quarters of 2001.
''The revisions in the data would seem to indicate at least a serious reconsideration is in order,'' said Robert Hall, chairman of the committee and a professor at Stanford University, in an interview. ''We are not stubborn about what happens when the numbers are revised.''
Hall said the committee is waiting for more detailed statistics on income and output to be released by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis before making a decision about the recession's start date.
''They still have not put out a substantial amount of the monthly detail, so we're basically on hold until they do that'' because ''that's become a very important part of our deliberations,'' Hall said. ''There will be news; keep an eye on our Web site.''
End of Recession
The Commerce Department hasn't said when the additional statistics may be available.
''We've been postponing the decision for more data,'' said Jeffrey Frankel, an economics professor at Harvard University and a member of the committee, in an interview. ''My personal feeling is the recession started in March 2001. Others disagree.'' Frankel was a member of Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers.
''We should leave it to experts who are recognized in the economics profession to date recessions,'' Laura Tyson, who chaired the White House economics panel during the first two years of Clinton's presidency, said in an interview at the World Economic Forum. ''We should make it a technical, not a political issue.''
The Business Cycle Dating Committee said in July that the recession ended in November 2001, the quarter GDP started rising following nine months of contraction. Since the recession was determined to have ended, 1.1 million workers have lost their jobs.
Hall, a registered Democrat, said the committee strives to be apolitical in making its decisions.
''We are absolutely, strictly scientific, and under no circumstances--nobody would even think of raising that issue,'' he said. ''I'm not saying it isn't politically sensitive, but we work very hard and there's a dispersion of political views represented on the committee. The integrity of the process is very high.''
Gregory Mankiw, chairman of Bush's Council of Economic Advisers, was a member of the committee until his appointment to the administration last year.
OUCH!
KMAN
Posted by the ChronWatch Founder, Jim Sparkman
Thursday, January 22, 2004
Well, it's getting harder and harder to be a Democratic candidate. First, they loved saying that the economy plunged into the tank on Bush's watch. But then the economy turns around resulting in growth in the third quarter at the best pace in twenty years. But the Dems still cling to the notion that the recession is Bush's responsibility. What's this? Out comes the defintive study by the group that officially defines recessionary periods. The decision by this group is that the economy slipped into recession during Bill Clinton's administration. This Bloomberg News Story sets the record straight on the ''Clinton recession.''
The U.S. economy slipped into recession during Democrat Bill Clinton's presidency rather than under President George W. Bush, the group that officially sets the timing of the country's business cycles may decide.
The seven-member Business Cycle Dating Committee of the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based National Bureau of Economic Research may change its determination that the recession started in March 2001 to reflect recent revisions to government growth statistics, committee members, including Victor Zarnowitz, said.
''We are discussing it now, and in my opinion it should be changed,'' Zarnowitz, a senior fellow at the Conference Board in New York, said in an interview. ''The recession started in December 2000.'' Zarnowitz said he was speaking for himself and not for the committee.
Such a change might help Republicans deflect a principal criticism of Democrats seeking to unseat Bush in this year's presidential election. Bush took office in January 2001.
Rolling back the recession's start would be ''worth a few political points,'' said Larry Sabato, professor of political science at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville. ''Rhetorically, it's much better for the president to say he inherited a recession and is turning it around.''
The committee's review has been triggered in part by revised Commerce Department figures last month showing that g**** domestic product shrank in the third quarter of 2000 instead of beginning its slide in the first three months of 2001.
''On Our Doorstep''
''As the new numbers have come in, it's very clear that the recession wasn't just on our doorstep when the new administration came in, it was there in the living room,'' Stephen Friedman, head of Bush's National Economic Council, said in an interview from Washington yesterday with Dallas radio station WBAP.
Other Bush administration officials, including Labor Secretary Elaine Chao have said on several occasions--inaccurately, according to the group's current determination--that Bush inherited the recession from Clinton.
''Clearly it was earlier than March,'' Martin Feldstein, the NBER's president and a member of the committee, said in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. ''Our job is to pick a month and we want to wait until the Commerce Department has given us all the monthly data so we're not in a position to reconsider more than once.''
G**** Domestic Product
Feldstein, an informal advisor to Bush, is often touted as a possible successor to Alan Greenspan when the Fed chairman's term ends in January 2006 and he must leave the central bank.
While giving heavy emphasis to changes in GDP, the committee also considers ''a wide range of indicators of economic activity'' in determining the beginnings and ends of business cycles, according to the group's Web site.
Among the other indicators are employment, industrial production, inflation-adjusted data for manufacturing, trade and personal income.
The current debate centers on whether g**** domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced, or employment paints a more accurate picture of changes in the economy.
The economists' group announced in November 2001 that the recession had begun in March of that year, after Labor Department figures showed the number of workers on payrolls peaked that month. Subsequent revisions to the employment data put the job peak in February 2001 at a record 132.56 million workers. In December of last year, 130.12 million were employed.
''Reconsideration''
Last month, the revised GDP figures showed that the world's largest economy shrank at a 0.5 percent annual pace from July through September 2000 rather than expanded 0.6 percent as originally estimated, the revised figures showed. After rebounding in the last three months of 2000, g**** domestic product fell in each of the following three quarters of 2001.
''The revisions in the data would seem to indicate at least a serious reconsideration is in order,'' said Robert Hall, chairman of the committee and a professor at Stanford University, in an interview. ''We are not stubborn about what happens when the numbers are revised.''
Hall said the committee is waiting for more detailed statistics on income and output to be released by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis before making a decision about the recession's start date.
''They still have not put out a substantial amount of the monthly detail, so we're basically on hold until they do that'' because ''that's become a very important part of our deliberations,'' Hall said. ''There will be news; keep an eye on our Web site.''
End of Recession
The Commerce Department hasn't said when the additional statistics may be available.
''We've been postponing the decision for more data,'' said Jeffrey Frankel, an economics professor at Harvard University and a member of the committee, in an interview. ''My personal feeling is the recession started in March 2001. Others disagree.'' Frankel was a member of Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers.
''We should leave it to experts who are recognized in the economics profession to date recessions,'' Laura Tyson, who chaired the White House economics panel during the first two years of Clinton's presidency, said in an interview at the World Economic Forum. ''We should make it a technical, not a political issue.''
The Business Cycle Dating Committee said in July that the recession ended in November 2001, the quarter GDP started rising following nine months of contraction. Since the recession was determined to have ended, 1.1 million workers have lost their jobs.
Hall, a registered Democrat, said the committee strives to be apolitical in making its decisions.
''We are absolutely, strictly scientific, and under no circumstances--nobody would even think of raising that issue,'' he said. ''I'm not saying it isn't politically sensitive, but we work very hard and there's a dispersion of political views represented on the committee. The integrity of the process is very high.''
Gregory Mankiw, chairman of Bush's Council of Economic Advisers, was a member of the committee until his appointment to the administration last year.
OUCH!
KMAN
