Soriano12 MLB Picks 2015

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Kansas City Royals -1 +106 2units
Volquez so far has been great, his velocity is good, he has very good control this season, lots of movement on his pitches and held the Sox to 1 run in his 1st start earlier this season. CWS has a decent offense on paper, but nothing more. Without Holland closing their games, KC still owns one of the best bullpens in the league and their defense is also right up their, especially their range in the OF.
Danks is average at best, he fared well vs KC in the past, but the Royals as an offense have advanced quite a bit imo. Still some bad swings by guys like Hosmer or Moustakas, but overall their approach has improved and they put the ball in play and create runs with their speed and baserunning. The Sox bullpen is a far cry from last years disaster, buy adding arms like David Robertson they improved in that area. But still prefer KCs arms and especially their depth even with Holland still missing.
Overall I'd give KC a pretty big pitching & defensive advantage in this one. USS Celular Field is prone to the longball and CWS has more power, but even in that regard I wouldn't give the advantage to the Sox because KC also has some power in his lineup and Danks gives up a bunch of flyballs and the ones he gives up are far more likely to be hit hard than the ones Volquez so far has given up, which for most part ended up being hit at the end of the bat instead of the barrel, therefore being routine plays rather than linedrives.
 

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Team total Toronto Blue Jays over 3.5 runs -120 4units
Erasmo Ramirez never ever should warrant a 3.5 line. That guy shouldn't even start in the majors (actually he wouldn't be starting and probably also wouldn't be on the active major league roster, if Tampa hadn't been missing Cobb, Smyly & Colome), let alone warrant a 3.5 line vs one of the better lineups in the AL. He gave up 7 in his first start vs MIA, who up to this point usually produce 7runs in a whole 3-game-series vs decent pitching. Then he got shelled for 9R in 3.1IP by this TOR team. Last year he had a 5.6 ERA and in his lone relief appearance vs the Blue Jays gave up 2R in 2IP. Bautista might be back DHing tonight but at least should be available to pinch hit and even without him, TOR still has one of the better lineups.
Rather neutral ballpark and umpire (Meals, stats are quite neutral when it comes to Ks/BBs, although covers.com lists him at 39-21 towards the over over the last 2 seasons and 3-1 so far this year), TAM a good defensive team and on paper their pen should be ok, but so far the bullpen has been shaky/hittable and even the defensive hasn't been as strong as in the past with guys like Loney missing.
 

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