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Genoa – Fiorentina
Team news
Home:
Injury: Marchese FB 9/1, Matri ATT 16/7, Tino Costa ATT MIDF 2/0,
Banned: Antonelli FB/WB 19/3; Bertolacci MIDF 19/1
Doubt: Antonini DEF 7/1
Market:
IN: Costa (AMC, Spartak Moscow), Niang (ATT, Milan), Pavoletti (ATT, Sassuolo), Ariaudo (DEF, Sassuolo)
OUT: Greco (MC, Verona), Pinilla (ATT, Atalanta), Mussis (MC, San Lorenzo).
Away:
Injury: Rossi ATT 0/0, Bernardeschi AMC/ST 5/0, Lupatelli GK 0/0, Neto GK 16/0 contract issues, , Lazzari AMC
Banned: Savic DEF 16/0, Pizzaro MIDF 17/0
Doubt: Aquliani MC 16/0,
Market:
IN: Diamanti (AMC, Guangzhou), Rosati (GK, Napoli), Gilardino (ATT, Guangzhou).
OUT: Matos (ATT, Palmeiras), Brillante (MC, Empoli).
Preview:
Previous matches:
Genoa despite brave performance against Napoli lost eventually due to soft penalty given to opposition. But in all honesty it was Napoli that had majority of the chances. Fiore played again positive game vs. Roma and draw was the least they deserved.
Missings and their influence:
Genoa misses are quite important in this game as now quite some players will again be missing for them. Matri and Costa will miss in attack but Perotti is back, problem is now in central attacker position where Genoa lacks the true striker (Pinilla sold, Matri injured and Niang more of a wide attacker
with new transfer Pavoletti proven only in Serie B where he scored 24 goals last season at Varese). Even more problematic seems the missing of two banned players: Antonelli plays on LM/WB position and Bertolacci is one of the best, if not the best midfielder they have, so this will probably mean tactical changes for them in this game.
Fiore still without players that they missed before, but they played okay without them, also Tatarusanu is performing good in goal, while also Gilardino was brought back this week, so they have a good striker, along with creative mind Diamanti - both came from China, so IMO looking at last week, Fiore is stronger team now (check update!), while also Gomez finally begun scoring and added 3 goals in last two matches, so his response to criticism is quite good. Pizzaro will be missed in midfield so probably Kurtic will play there and he lacks same skills that Chilean player possesses.
Update: It seems that Fiorentina have sealed the deal with Chelsea to sell Cuadrado for number app. 31-33 millions Euro + 18 month free loan of Salah.
Shorthanded this is a big setback for Fiore team as Cuadrado for two seasons now was key player for them. So this will also show in tactical set up, despite IMO Diamanti should play in his position, but despite being a very solid player, he simply do not have the attributes from Cuadrado. Salah almost surely will not be in the team for this match.
Genoa is working hard for new arrivals, but they managed to get only players that were more or less dead wood (two from Sassuolo), but also one most promising striker in Europe few seasons ago in Niang – still he was used in Milan on wide positions, so I did not see him in action as central striker too much. Overall, no proven Serie A players arrived so far.
Recent performances:
Genoa as said before is now in result crisis. No wins in 6 and even more, their defence is looking more and more vulnerable as they conceded 12 goals in last 5 games. Attack is not doing so badly, but question are asked about keeping the ball out of the net. Also worth mentioning is last 5 games were “over’s”, while overall at home they are still solid with 3-4-3 record with home losses coming against Roma, Napoli and Sampdoria.
Fiorentina beaten only once in last 9 – and even this was unlucky lost match against Parma and their performance is really good. I love their attacking play and they have now more options in attack as before. They are still better in away matches as they won 5/10 of them and also 4/5 last games they played away. Also worth mentioning is that they failed to score only against Roma when they were playing away and 6/10 games had BTS and 8/10 games had more than one goal in it, while Genoa played only 3/10 over’s at home.
H2H:
H2H is mixed, but on side of Fiore. Overall they are 9-8-3 vs. Genoa, but won only 2 games in 10 played on Marassi, while they hold superb record vs. them in Florenz. But more importantly, those two away wins for Fiore, came in last two seasons when they won with 5-2 and 1-0.
Tactics:
Tactically IMO Gasperini will have to change to 4-3-3 formation instead of using 3-4-3 with two defensive wingers (misses of Antonelli FB/WB 19/3 and Bertolacci MIDF 19/1). So that is good for Fiore who will crowd out the midfield with their 3-5-2 or 3-5-1-1 with Cuadrado behind Gomez. So midfield is where Fiore is strongest and missing of those two players, should be even more noticeable, with also both wing attackers surely with more defensive duties for Genoa and hence this will limit their offensive power. Fiore is strong at wings and both Pasqual and Joaquin love to get forward as much as possible.
Odds:
Odds are set correctly and give limited value in this case. But still I like Fiorentina here in this occasion. They are at this point better of two teams and as said, Genoa is having bad moment in defence, missing in midfield and also lack true striker, while Fiore just got two players that probably will not need major time for adapting as they played majority of their careers in Italy. Both were Italian internationals!
Betting advice:
So due to all named reasons IMO bet on Fiore -0,25 is a good idea as it will take something extra from Genoa to stop them this time. Fiore do have confidence to win this game and despite teams are close to each other on the table, Genoa is in different spiral as Fiore. IMO Genoa over performed this season so far and now reality hit them. But, they are still solid team with some good players, hence only -0,25 hcap is advised.
Update: Missing of Cuadrdo has turned this match on head as loosing such an important player is really hard on Fiore and if I illustrate, for them is similar as Barca playing without Messi. So I don’t see much sense in backing Fiorentina at this point and game is for sure a no bet atm.
