Hello, just joined the forum, BEST OF LUCK to all!
I want to start with my opinion and advice on mexican soccer play-off, specially the first game between Santos- Laguna vs Monarcas Morelia.
THE PLAY ---> I chose this play because of the current money line: BACK MORELIA NOT TO LOSE.
That means that you bet on Morelia (as visiting team) to win and also you place a second bet on the tie. If you look at the prices, the average are something like this: MORELIA +190 and the tie is +210
So on that prices you must bet almost equal amounts to win 50% of your bet, a little bit more to morelia as it pays a little less (you only lose if Santos wins). here is a dutch calc if the line moves or if you want to do an exact calc:
http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html
You can also back Morelia not to lose if your bookie offers a bet called commonly "special 1 2". if not place the two bets as adviced.
For me, there is a lot of value on Morelia not to lose at -200
----------------WHY-----------------------------------
When this tie-in was formed, I remember thinking how hard it was going to be for Santos to handle a team like Morelia even at home.
Comparing these two teams, you have Morelia, with Head Coach Tomas Boy, ex player and mexico's international, as a franchise that has seriously cared for their football and for having a top class team in Mexico. The results are a solid and worked team that knows what it is doing on the field and whose players understand their goals perfectly. Coach Tomas Boy knows this, and if you have been following his teams for the last 10 years you are aware that he is very demanding with his players and the only goal in his mind is to have the best Morelia he can. I doubt that he will want to give away a defeat at Torreon, specially when the whole team speaks of winning the whole championship. Morelia finished 2nd on the general table only behind Toluca (who is losing a little game level) and looked solid and consistent the whole regular season. I am confident Morelia is the best or at least second best team in Mexico. And no injuries!
On the other hand Santos is a team that, altough having some talented players, know that their best moments came like 3 seasons ago. Actual coach Sergio Bueno has not been that good or succesful, I've always seen average or below average seasons. It seems to me he is the kind of coach that is satisfied with some good or decent efforts and doesn't have the hunger to build a top class team that wants to win and wants to win championships. Additionaly, I think also that Boy is a better coach than Bueno.
Other issues on Santos are lack of discipline, players that want to appear in magazines rather than focus and win, some loss in confidence, it is a team that has lost power mainly because of a coach switch (to the actual one Bueno who hasn't managed the players very well). Their most talented player, argentine Ludueña is already thinking in leaving the club.
If this is not enough, check Santos last 5 games: not a single win even against waaay weaker opps.
-In a word: My guess is that Santos is lossing game level for a while already and won't be able to handle a team so chiseled as Morelia. My guess is that Morelia will own the ball and impose his rules, so Santos will have a very hard scenario if they want to win the game. very hard for them to win the game.
BACK MORELIA NOT TO LOSE (1 BET TO MORELIA-WIN AND 1 MORE TO THE TIE, ADJUST ACCORDINGLY) LOOK FOR 50 % RETURN
----- DON'T BET MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE-----
I want to start with my opinion and advice on mexican soccer play-off, specially the first game between Santos- Laguna vs Monarcas Morelia.
THE PLAY ---> I chose this play because of the current money line: BACK MORELIA NOT TO LOSE.
That means that you bet on Morelia (as visiting team) to win and also you place a second bet on the tie. If you look at the prices, the average are something like this: MORELIA +190 and the tie is +210
So on that prices you must bet almost equal amounts to win 50% of your bet, a little bit more to morelia as it pays a little less (you only lose if Santos wins). here is a dutch calc if the line moves or if you want to do an exact calc:
http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html
You can also back Morelia not to lose if your bookie offers a bet called commonly "special 1 2". if not place the two bets as adviced.
For me, there is a lot of value on Morelia not to lose at -200
----------------WHY-----------------------------------
When this tie-in was formed, I remember thinking how hard it was going to be for Santos to handle a team like Morelia even at home.
Comparing these two teams, you have Morelia, with Head Coach Tomas Boy, ex player and mexico's international, as a franchise that has seriously cared for their football and for having a top class team in Mexico. The results are a solid and worked team that knows what it is doing on the field and whose players understand their goals perfectly. Coach Tomas Boy knows this, and if you have been following his teams for the last 10 years you are aware that he is very demanding with his players and the only goal in his mind is to have the best Morelia he can. I doubt that he will want to give away a defeat at Torreon, specially when the whole team speaks of winning the whole championship. Morelia finished 2nd on the general table only behind Toluca (who is losing a little game level) and looked solid and consistent the whole regular season. I am confident Morelia is the best or at least second best team in Mexico. And no injuries!
On the other hand Santos is a team that, altough having some talented players, know that their best moments came like 3 seasons ago. Actual coach Sergio Bueno has not been that good or succesful, I've always seen average or below average seasons. It seems to me he is the kind of coach that is satisfied with some good or decent efforts and doesn't have the hunger to build a top class team that wants to win and wants to win championships. Additionaly, I think also that Boy is a better coach than Bueno.
Other issues on Santos are lack of discipline, players that want to appear in magazines rather than focus and win, some loss in confidence, it is a team that has lost power mainly because of a coach switch (to the actual one Bueno who hasn't managed the players very well). Their most talented player, argentine Ludueña is already thinking in leaving the club.
If this is not enough, check Santos last 5 games: not a single win even against waaay weaker opps.
-In a word: My guess is that Santos is lossing game level for a while already and won't be able to handle a team so chiseled as Morelia. My guess is that Morelia will own the ball and impose his rules, so Santos will have a very hard scenario if they want to win the game. very hard for them to win the game.
BACK MORELIA NOT TO LOSE (1 BET TO MORELIA-WIN AND 1 MORE TO THE TIE, ADJUST ACCORDINGLY) LOOK FOR 50 % RETURN
----- DON'T BET MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE-----
uke1:
hno:..They couldn't even play for a draw and Santos scored when they were down to 10 men.:hanging:
