soccer midweek Oct 31 - Nov 2

[rolltide]

Partizan vs Livorno - Uefa cup - Partizan started slow in Serbian league but now on fire with 4 straight shutout wins. In Uefa Cup play they easily defeated Groningen and Maribor at home, and now face Livorno. Livorno lost to Rangers at home and defeated Pasching away in the cup, but they will send reserves to Belgrade. Although I am very confident that Partizan will not lose here I adjust the stakes learning from last year when Parma nearly won this competition with reserves. Of course Italian football levels above Serbian but Livorno, like Parma, are not a big team and are big underdogs playing with B team. Partizan level ball 6/10 @1.676 (pinn)

65-47-4 +52.29
485.58 out -> 537.87 in (+10.8%)

 

[rolltide]

tonight in EPL

Manchester City vs Middlesbrough - Man City 4/4 in home unders this year, having yet to allow a goal, 2-2-0 3/0. Boro 2-2 o/u away but 4-2 under in last 6. This series with 5 straight EPL unders at City and last 7 home meetings in last 10 years have ended under 2.5 goals. Man City are the 2nd lowest scoring team overall in the EPL...only Sheffield United have scored less. Man City / Middlesbrough under 2.5 goals 4/10 @1.65

 

[rolltide]

basically a repost from late Sept. Really like these bets but not a big fan of betting Champion's League matches, so each just smaller. Staring down Benfica for Wednesday

PSV vs Galatasaray - Turkish teams never fare well away from home in CL matches.
2006 Liverpool 3-2 Gala
2006 Dynamo Kiev 3-1 Fener
2005 PSV 2-0 Fener
2005 Schalke 2-0 Fener
2005 Milan 3-1 Fener
2004 Lyon 4-2 Fener
2004 Man U 6-2 Fener
2003 Olympiakos 3-0 Gala
2003 Juventus 2-1 Gala
2002 Barcelona 3-1 Gala
2002 Club Brugge 3-1 Gala
PSV scored 3 beauties over the weekend and are in serious form with 7-1-0 24/4 in last 8 Eredivisie matches including 4-0-0 19/3 at home. Gala indifferent, plodding along with 6 draws in 11 league matches. Dutch league hold #8 UEFA position while Turkey is #13 and PSV just defeated Gala away 2 weeks ago 2-1. PSV -1 goal 3.5/10 @1.87 (pinn)

Roma vs Olympiakos - Olympiakos is now winless in 29 games away in Champions League play (or is it 28?). They luckily drew Shakhtar in their 1st away match, 2-2, but so such luck in Italy tomorrow. They've been shutout in last few years in road matches vs Juventus, Real Sociedad, Galatasaray, Leverkusen, Maccabi Haifa, and United. Roma beat Oly away and are not in good form but have three 2+ goal wins in Serie A and bombed Shakhtar 4-0 here in September. Despite their lofty 7-1 domestic record, nothing is coming easy for Olympiakos with almost every win by 1 goal, and rival PAO on tap this weekend. Roma -1 goal 3.5/10 @1.69 (ibc)

 

[rolltide]

Preston vs Leeds - England Championship Tuesday - PNE sitting 2nd on table after their 11 match unbeaten run came to an end at Burnley. They've won 5 straight at home and facing a very out-of-form Leeds side. Though Leeds were tipped as a promotion candidate they continue to struggle away from home, as last year, with a 3 game road losing streak and 3/10 goal differential. PNE lost just twice here last year and unbeaten in 7 so far in 2006/07. One of their losses was Leeds so revenge game for them against a team that is just 2-7 in their last 9 overall. Preston North End -1/2 goal 2.5/10 @1.885 (pinn)

 

[rolltide]

Palmeiras vs Goias - Brazil Wed - Goias have been scoring at will in this nice streak they've been on. Dating back to mid-August Goias matches have produced 13 overs in 16 matches with a 3.6 gpg avg. Palmerias not far behind with 8 overs out of 10, a 3.5 gpg avg, and 4/4 overs at home with a 4 gpg avg. Harlei, Goias' starting goalie, was red carded vs Cruzeiro so will miss out here. Other team news not especially positive for an over with top players like Marcinho, Jadilson, and Cleber Gaucho missing out but stats too good to pass up. Palmeiras/Goias over 2.75 goals 4/10 @1.94 (ibc ... pinn should have up shortly)

 

[rolltide]

Benfica vs Celtic - CL Wed - Scottish teams are woeful travelers though Celtic did put up a fight in Manchester, losing 3-2. Last year Celtic lost at Artmedia, Shakhtar, and Milan and playing in Benfica is not easy....plus Celtic have never won an away match in the current format. Last year Benfica beat Liverpool, Manchester United, and Lille at home. Form-wise Celtic would be the favorite but Portugal is a level above Scotland overall though when you talk about the top 2-3 teams in each league the playing field is more level. UEFA country rankings show Portugal #6 and Scotland #11. If Benfica do not get all 3 points their CL is basically over while a draw would suit Celtic just fine. Despite having yet to score in 3 games I like Benfica to win this and make group F tight for the 2nd spot. Benfica 3/10 @1.98 (pinn)

 

[Soprano]

Do you like Man U MoneyLine -225???

 

[rolltide]

no, i actually like FCK +1.5 1.66 before I'd take United 1.45 but prefer under 2.5 1.85 to a side. No doubting United's crazy form but we are very bad on the road in Europe . The 1-0 win at Benfica was completely undeserved as we were on our heels all match and United scored on one of their only shots all game. I think FCK can compete in this one and possibly grab a draw. Either way I think you're looking at a total of 2 or less goals scored

 

[Soprano]

Thanks rolltide. I think I will lay the juice with Real, Lyon and Milan in a parlay!!!

 

[rolltide]

Colo Colo vs La Serena - Chile 3:30 pm EST - odds rising on the total so worth a shot now. Colo Colo with 4 of last 5 games reaching at least 4 goals and 6 of 7 home games this year hitting for 4+. La Serena overall an underish side lately but they started the year out with a lot of overs and just played a 4-4 draw a few weeks ago. They've scored in 4 straight road game and 5/7 on the year with 3 of those ending with 4+ goals. Their last two meetings both ended 3-3 draws and 4 of last 6 meetings have seen 4+ goals. Huge total but still going over goals IMO. Colo Colo / La Serena over 3.5 goals 4.5/10 @1.935 (pinn)

 

[rolltide]

real unlucky to only push the Partizan match. Livorno had one shot on goal all match and it was the 88th minute goal. Good midweek anyway

midweek 6-1-1 +15.27
Partizan 1-1 +0.00
Man City 1-0 +2.60
PSV 2-0 +3.05
Roma 1-1 -3.50
Preston 3-0 +2.21
Goias 3-1 +3.76
Benfica 3-0 +2.94
Colo Colo 4-4 +4.21

71-48-5 +67.56
516.58 out -> 584.14 in (+13.1%)

 

[Seahawks]

You had a nice midweek. Will check your picks for the upcoming weekend.